11/12 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap
After an incredible eight-day green streak for ES, we saw a shift on Wednesday as the consolidation range finally broke down, triggering shorts. This was the first real pullback since October 27th, marking the first red day after eight green ones. This week's price action has normalized, and we've settled back into more typical price action, with the 85/15 ratio generally holding before an afternoon trend to the downside yesterday.
The Markets Overnight
“We are not confident we've achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance. If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate.” Jay Powell in a prepared statement for yesterday’s global economy panel discussion.
Some US Treasury market settlements were affected by ransomware attacks.
Major Global Catalysts
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up
Key Structures
The core structures/big zones to engage include 4425, 4399, 4376, 4336-26, 4279-83, and 4254-58. These are not comprehensive and are simply some select major structures to take note of.
REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback.
Support Levels
4356, 4347, 4327-35 (major), 4314, 4306-4302 (major), 4290, 4280-83 (major), 4268, 4255-58 (major), 4242 (major), 4231, 4221, 4214 (major).
Resistance Levels
4366, 4377 (major), 4386, 4399 (major), 4412, 4418-25 (major), 4430, 4439, 4445, 4452, 4462-65 (major), 4477, 4483 (major), 4496 (major), 4507, 4514 (major), 4525, 4530-33 (major), 4542 (major).
Trading Plan
The general lean is that we can defend 4377, head down to 4336-27, and then bounce. If 4377 reclaims, that is probably it for this pullback. Any bear case mentioned here is purely short-term. Generally, though, the bear case is in play as long as we are below 4377ish. As long as it is below it/as long as it holds on any backtest, ES likely dips to 4335-27.
Wrap Up
It's the first red day after eight green days, but bulls remain firmly in control, and the RSI suggests energy for a squeeze with the right trigger. If 4377 reclaims, that is probably it for this pullback. As always, the solution to trading the above action is reactive level-to-level trading.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Es_f
SPX Futures: Leading Diagonal into a 1 or A? Downside ahead.The analysis of the S&P 500 futures (ES) presents an intriguing scenario for traders, especially those new to the market. Let's break it down in a way that's easier to understand.
Understanding the Market Movements
Five-Wave Decline : The ES has seen a decline in a structure that can be described as a 'five-wave' pattern. In market analysis, a five-wave structure often indicates a complete cycle of market movement in one direction.
Complex Correction Possibility : Initially, there were indications of a complex correction. A complex correction in market terms refers to a price movement that doesn't follow a straightforward pattern and often involves multiple peaks and troughs.
Impulsive Move Upward : Recently, there was a significant and rapid upward movement, known as an impulsive move. This was the largest of its kind in about a year, suggesting a potential change in market sentiment or dynamics.
Current Scenario - ABC Correction : Based on the recent price action, it seems we're in an ABC correction phase. This is a common pattern in market analysis where the price movement is divided into three parts - A, B, and C. We seem to be completing the B wave.
Wave A: Completed in a leading diagonal pattern.
Wave B: Currently in progress.
Wave C: Expected next, which might lead to higher price levels temporarily.
Future Predictions and Risks
Potential Downturn : There's a looming financial crisis and geopolitical tensions, which could turn the current Wave B into a Wave 2, leading to a significant sell-off and a new downward wave (Wave 3).
Primary Count - ABC Correction : The primary expectation is still an ABC correction, suggesting a rise to around 4400-4500 levels before a decline.
New Lows Possible : If the downward trend continues post-correction, we might see new lows below 4100, possibly nearing 4000.
Santa Rally : A short-term rally is anticipated, likely ending well before Christmas.
Key Dates to Watch
December 7: Futures roll date, marking a shift from one futures contract to another.
December 15: Futures expiration date and a potential turning point for increased volatility, including in cryptocurrencies.
Advice for Traders
For beginner traders, this analysis suggests caution and vigilance, especially around the mentioned key dates. It's crucial to monitor market news and global events, as these can significantly impact market movements. Remember, while predictions and analyses are useful, the market can always behave unpredictably, and risk management should always be your top priority.
11/9 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap
In Tuesday's newsletter, we discussed the historic rally of the ES, which saw 7 green days in a row for the first time since November 2021. While there was a slight dip yesterday, this “red day” was quickly bought up, with ES closing only marginally off the recent highs. The extreme magnitude of this recent 8-day rally was demonstrated by yesterday’s 31-point micro-dip, the largest we have seen since October 27th. ES has spent since Friday in consolidation mode around the 4385 level, likely producing another large move.
The Markets Overnight
Eurozone finance ministers meet for the Economic and Financial Affairs Council. The council coordinates the economic policies of the 28 member states, and their initiatives and decisions can have a widespread effect on the Eurozone's economic health.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in San Francisco today in an effort to improve relations and economic ties.
Major Global Catalysts
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Unchanged
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
Key Structures
The ES chart is now very close to some of the most significant multi-month resistances. These include 4433, the core downtrend channel from the August high; 4418-24, a major resistance cluster in October and a major support cluster back in June and August; and 4399, which backtests the exact August 2023 low.
REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over, and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback.
Support Levels
Several big-picture structures/levels are notable from highest to lowest. These include 4425-30, 4399, 4376, 4336-26, 4279-83, and 4254-58. These structures are not comprehensive, but they provide some major ones to note.
Resistance Levels
4398 (major), 4410, 4418, 4425-30 (major), 4439, 4445, 4460-63 (major), 4473, 4480-84 (major), 4496 (major), 4507, 4514 (major), 4525-30 (major), 4537, 4543 (major).
Trading Plan
For today, there are two main scenarios to consider. In the bull case, we expect the ES to continue defending 4385 4375 supports, then push higher up the levels to 4410, 4418, 4425-30. In the bear case, we would need to see a failure at 4375-78, which could trigger the significant unwind many are waiting on. As long as above there, though, we continue basing for further upside.
Wrap Up
We remain in extreme uptrend mode. My general lean is as long as 4386-88, 4375-78 continues to hold on dips, and the rally continues with 4410, 4418, and 4425-30 magnets. If 4375 fails, we can finally begin a pullback. It should be substantial when it triggers.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
11/7 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap
The market has seen an extraordinary seven green days in a row, with ES not only recording its largest single green week since the first week of November last year but also forming a clear bull flag. Yesterday was largely a consolidation day, but it continued the green streak, making it an even rarer six in a row. Today, we tested 4368-66 in the morning, rallied to 4399 minimum, and then rejected there.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down
Key Structures
The ES chart is now very close to some of the most significant multi-month resistances. These include 4433, the core downtrend channel from the August high; 4418-24, a major resistance cluster in October and a major support cluster back in June and August; and 4399, which backtests the exact August 2023 low.
REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and also reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback.
Support Levels
4387-85 (major), 4376, 4367-71 (major), 4356, 4343, 4338 (major), 4326, 4321 (major), 4314, 4302-97 (major), 4290, 4279 (major), 4268, 4258, 4253 (major), 4243 (major), 4230, 4215 (major), 4205.
Resistance Levels
4399-4401 (major), 4412, 4418, 4424 (major), 4430-32 (major), 4440, 4447-52 (major), 4462 (major), 4473, 4481-84, 4496 (major), 4507, 4514 (major), 4520, 4525, 4532 (major).
Trading Plan
The bull case for tomorrow depends on the bull flag continuing to defend, meaning bulls want to hold above 4385, 4367-72 at the absolute lowest. If these hold, ES may have one pop left in it, with the obvious magnet being 4424, 4430-32. The bear case generally begins on the fail of 4367-72, with 4385 failure being an initial warning shot.
Wrap Up
In summary, any upside from here is purely a bonus. Setups are quite scarce up here, but the general lean is that as long as the bull flag defends (4385, 4367-72) ES can see a pop up the levels to 4424, 4430-32 then try a dip. If 4367-72 fails, we dip direct. In higher, we could expect some short-term consolidation to build up energy before heading higher.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
11/6 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap
We witnessed an impressive stock market rally, marking the largest green week since the inception of the current bull market in October 2022, and a record not seen since November 2020. Every trading day experienced significant gains, driven by a strategic short squeeze following a preceding sell-off period.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up strongly
🌍 Europe: Mixed
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Near unchanged
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up
Major Global Catalysts
Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirm commitment to oil production cuts. (link)
KOSPI exchange index soars 5.6% after South Korea bans short selling until June 2024.
Key Structures
The pivot began post eight consecutive red days, fueling the rally through a significant buying pressure indicative of a short squeeze—a momentum mirrored only by the market's robust ascent since October 2022.
REMINDER: The market has reached an important juncture, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and also reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Continued strength as we head into next week would further solidify the case that this bull market still has room to run.
Support Levels
Major support levels: 4378, 4367-65, 4336, 4313, 4290, 4279, 4250-53, 4236, 4213-16, 4184.
Minor support levels: 3929, 4060, 3798, 4453, 3536.
Supports at 4367-65 are pivotal, having been tested last Friday, and now presenting potential weakness.
Resistance Levels
Major resistance levels: 4385, 4398, 4418-24, 4440, 4485-89, 4496, 4508, 4514, 4537-42.
Minor support levels: 4135, 4020, 3906, 4595, 4480
The major resistance zones at 4418-24 could be critical for establishing the market's short-term trajectory.
Trading Plan
The initial support to watch is at 4367-65. A break below could signal a pullback, with 4335-38 as the next critical juncture for potential long positions, reflecting last Friday's breakout point.
Wrap Up
While the market's direction seems to sustain its ascent, caution is paramount given the unpredictable nature of this 'melt-up' phase. Watch for a potential dip to 4335 as a litmus test for the market's strength; a failure here may precipitate a retrace towards 4290. Maintain a reactive stance, ready to adapt to the market's signals.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
11/3 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap
In the past week, we saw an impressive rally of 180 points, marking one of the best trades of the year. This was largely due to a textbook failed breakdown bottoming setup triggering on Sunday evening, demonstrating the power of the short squeeze. The rally continued for four days straight, reaching a peak at a major pivot point of 4336. This marked the largest rally since the broad correction began on August 1st.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up strongly
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down a lot
🧐 Yields: Down a lot
🔮 Crypto: Down
Major Global Catalysts
Non-Farm Payrolls come in light showing a slower jobs market
Key Structures
The market's structure is currently framed by several crucial levels that demand attention. The most pivotal of these is the 4135 level, which has emerged as a significant point of contention between buyers and sellers. This level served as a major resistance point and is now a key marker to watch for potential support.
The 4020 level is also of note, having previously acted as resistance. As the market dynamics evolve, this level could be tested again, potentially reinforcing or invalidating its role as a resistance-turned-support.
Moreover, the levels of 3928 and 3797 are essential to monitor as they have provided substantial support in the past. Any movements towards these levels could indicate a market seeking stability.
The market has reached an important juncture today, as the SPX has rallied back above its 200-day moving average and also reclaimed the long-term secular bull market uptrend line that extends back to the 2020 Covid crash lows. Breaking back above these key long-term technical levels suggests the recent correction may be over and the primary bull market may be resuming. The ability to hold these levels on a closing basis today would be an encouraging technical development and increase the probability that the October lows marked the end of the pullback. Continued strength as we head into next week would further solidify the case that this bull market still has room to run.
Support Levels
The foundations of our market are clearly defined by critical support levels. Our analysis highlights key supports at 3928, 4059, and 3797. These levels are pivotal, having been tested and held firm under market pressure, signifying their importance.
It's imperative for investors to monitor the 4452 and 3535 zones as these levels have also served as significant support. Their role in historical price movements has been substantial, and they remain crucial for the market's underpinning.
Resistance Levels
As for the upside barriers, our analysis identifies resistance at 4135 and 4020. Overcoming these levels could signal strength and a potential bullish continuation. The minor resistance levels at 3905, 4594, and 4479 also pose hurdles for price advances and should be watched closely by traders.
Trading Plan
In the context of recent market movements, it is paramount to focus on preserving capital. The period following a significant price trend is often marked by uncertainty, making it a challenging trading environment. Caution is advised, with a preference for observing the market's reaction to key levels rather than committing to new positions.
Wrap Up
After a period of gains, the market appears to be entering a consolidation phase. Although the momentum is with the bulls, there is a palpable risk of pullback. Close observation is required to see if the critical support at 4269-71 holds, as it was instrumental in the last upward movement. Conversely, if the 4302 support gives way, it could lead to a notable decline, offering opportunities for bearish positions.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
11/2 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap
This week started off with a firm yes rallying 100+ points from Friday’s low to yesterday’s high. The rally was triggered by a reclaim of 4154 on Monday, which put in a failed breakdown bottoming trigger. This led to three large green days in a row.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up except Mainland China down slightly
🌍 Europe: Up strongly
🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit
💵 Dollar: Down a lot
🧐 Yields: Down considerably, TLT up very strongly
🔮 Crypto: Mixed
Major Global Catalysts
FOMC does not raise interest rates
Apple set to report fourth-quarter earnings after the bell
Key Structures
Several big picture structures/levels stand out, arranged from highest to lowest. Notable levels include 4594 (minor resistance), 4479 (minor resistance), 4368 (major resistance), 4335 (minor resistance), 4307 (major resistance), 4279 (major resistance), and 4250 (major support). These are key levels to monitor, providing a snapshot of major structural points within the market.
Support Levels
4250 (major), 4230 (major), 4214 (major), 4205 (major), 4135 (major), 4112 (major), 4321 (minor), 4452 (minor), and 3535 (minor). These levels are pivotal, with major supports being more critical junctures and minor supports offering additional layers of potential price stabilization.
Resistance Levels
4594 (minor), 4479 (minor), 4368 (major), 4335 (minor), 4307 (major), 4279 (major), 4250 (major), 4135 (major), and 3905 (minor). These represent significant barriers to price movement, where we might expect sell-offs or reversals, with major resistances likely posing stronger opposition to upward trends.
Trading Plan
Following the significant rally, caution is advised against immediately purchasing at the first support. Watch for failed breakdowns, which could be opportune moments. The 4230 (major) zone is the first substantial support level for potential entry. Should the price dip further, 4214 to 4205 is another key area with a higher chance of a rebound.
Wrap Up
After three consecutive days of gains, it's prudent to adopt a more cautious stance on long positions. Preferably, a period of consolidation or a slight pullback would be healthy. The bull scenario hinges on holding key levels, especially around 4230 (major) and potentially 4214 as the lowest dip locations. Maintaining these levels could pave the way for an ascent to 4279, followed by a potential retest, then upward to the low 4300s, which seems to be the next target. The bulls retain the upper hand for now.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
11/1 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap
This week began with ES breaking the deepest sell cycle of 2023, which saw 8 of the last 9 trading days red before Monday. The market finally capitulated and put in a green day Monday, followed by another green day Tuesday. This was in line with my plan for the week, which was to get long when 4153-47 reclaims. We reclaimed this level on Monday, back-tested, and have been moving up since then.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Up a bit
🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Up a bit
🧐 Yields: Up slightly, volatile
🔮 Crypto: Up slightly
Major Global Catalysts
FOMC day! US Treasury, FOMC, Jay Powell, and macro-economic data in focus today.
Key Structures
There are several key structures and levels to note in the current market landscape. These include 4280, 4247-50, 4230, 4203, 4154-57, and 4113. Each of these levels represents critical resistance or support points that will play a significant role in determining market direction.
Support Levels
4203-05, 4190, 4182, 4171, 4163, 4154-57, 4147, 4135, 4125, 4113, 4103, 4090, 4075-80, 4064, 4055-60, 4043, 4025-30, 4011, 4000-4005, 3987, and 3976-79.
Resistance Levels
4247-50, 4262, 4268, 4277-79, 4290, 4297, 4302-05, 4314, 4322, 4336, 4341, 4350-55, 4366, 4376, 4381, 4387.
Trading Plan
Given the volatility and complexity of FOMC days, my strategy is to size down and focus on failed breakdowns. I am looking for a level/key low to flush, trap, reclaim, then I get in. I will be trading the plan below, level to level, one move at a time. The bull case remains in play as long as we are above 4154-57, with 4247-50 being the obvious magnet. The bear case begins on the fail of 4154-57, with a new low down to 4112 quite likely if that support goes.
Wrap Up
Today is FOMC day, which is notoriously the most volatile, complex, and defining day of the year. It is essential to be reactive and not to predict the action in advance. 4213-4215 was a big resistance that cleared, as seen in the 4-hour chart. My lean is we can defend 4180 on any flushes then head to 4250 target. However, I will react to whatever path price chooses - I follow price, not tell it where to go.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
10/31 Trading Plan -Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap
The last week has been tough for the SPX, with 8 of the last 9 days seeing red. After a relentless three-day sell-off, ES managed a 70 point relief rally from Friday's lows. Yesterday, the bulls managed to reverse it and reclaim the 4147-54 level, leading to a green day. The question now is, can bulls manage green day #2, and perhaps more?
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Down a bit
Major Global Catalysts
US Treasury lowers it’s borrowing estimate for Q4 and Q1.
Key Structures
4247-50: This was the zone where it all began last Wednesday. We broke this down on Wednesday morning following 2 days of basing here. It is now a key backtest level.
4225-30: Big breakout level back in August.
4205: This area was an important support way back in May. We tested it 3x between May 10 and May 24th and it started a significant multi-month rally.
4147-53: This zone was an important level back in March, April and May. It was an important resistance in March, which then became support in May and set the ultimate May low.
Support Levels
4180-82 (major), 4171, 4162, 4147-53 (major), 4136, 4125 (major), 4112 (major), 4101, 4092 (major), 4075-80 (major), 4069, 4055-60 (major), 4043, 4037, 4025-30 (major).
Resistance Levels
4213 (major), 4225-30 (major), 4242, 4248-50 (major), 4258 (major), 4268, 4279, 4285 (major), 4297-4300 (major), 4314.
Trading Plan
Bull case today: ES did put in the framework for another attempted relief bounce, and generally, this is in play as long as we are above 4153-47, and sensible targets would be 4225-30, then 4247-50.
Bear case today: Begins on the failure of 4147-53. If 4153-47 fails, we must make a new low before another attempt.
Wrap Up
In summary, bulls are attempting another relief rally. These have nearly all failed for the past month, but in general, as long as 4147-53 keeps holding, the attempt is alive. If 4153-47 fails, we must make a new low before another attempt. As always, trade tactfully and avoid impulse entries.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
10/30 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap
The week saw a continuation of the red streak in ES, with 8 of the last 9 days being red. The week was characterized by heavy selling, with ES losing its core bull market trendline from the 2020 COVID lows. Since then, ES has been in “sell the bounce” mode, with periods of basing interspersed by sharp sells lower for a total of 100 points down since the loss of this level on Wednesday.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up slightly
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up a bit
Major Global Catalysts
Markets shrug off intensification of Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza.
Key Structures
4225: It was a big breakout level back in August.
4205: An important support way back in May. It failed on Wednesday after hours, backtested from below on Thursday, and we continued lower.
4153: An important level back in March, April and May. It was major support on Thursday, and acted as support yet again last Friday before flushing after 5 tests.
4120-26: The zone we ultimately broke out from in late March 2023, after nearly a full month of basing.
4075-80: A critical support zone.
4050-52: A major channel support.
Support Levels
4125 (major), 4117, 4112, 4102 (major), 4092 (major), 4076-80 (major), 4060, 4050-52 (major), 4045, 4025-30 (major), 4017, 4000-4005 (major).
Resistance Levels
4136, 4141, 4147-53 (major), 4163, 4171, 4181, 4187-90 (major), 4205 (major), 4213, 4218, 4225-30 (major), 4237, 4248-50 (major), 4255, 4264-68 (major), 4286, 4297-4300 (major), 4314-16 (major), 4323, 4335-40 (major), 4346, 4355, 4366-68 (major).
Trading Plan
The bull case started today with the reclaim of 4147-54. The bear case begins on the fail of 4125. The best shorts are on bounces, not on chasing red at the lows. If we test 4125 again put in another tradable bounce/failed breakdown (perhaps to 4117) then lose it after, I’d be looking short perhaps 4116 for the next leg down to 4102 then 4092.
Wrap Up
Although bears remain in control, downside is heavily stretched here, and RSI extremely oversold. As long as 4154 holds, we can work down to that 4101, 4092 zone before trying to hammer a low and reclaim 4154. Since 4154 reclaimed off the bat today, we start up direct. We could see a few large green days in the day ahead, but no promises.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
10/27 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap
Last week was the longest stretch of consecutive red days in 2023, with the SPX experiencing 5 red days in a row for the first time this year. This week started off with a single green day, representing a 70-point bounce to reset after 5 days. We spent 3/4 of yesterday in sell mode, making it 7 out of the last 8 red days. The question is whether this bounce is another dead cat or the beginning of a sustained recovery leg.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up strongly
🌍 Europe: Mixed
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Down slightly
Major Global Catalysts
Core PCE eases slightly in September
Key Structures
4279: Connecting the two rising October lows acting as ultimate resistance this week.
4247-50: The key support zone for the last few days collapsed on Wednesday.
4205: Important support zone back in May.
4153: Important support zone in March, April, and May.
Support Levels
4163, 4153 (major), 4147, 4135, 4126 (major), 4112, 4102-4106, 4092 (major), 4083, 4076 (major), 4060, 4048-50 (major), 4040, 4026-29 (major), 4016, 4000-4005 (major).
Resistance Levels
4171 (major), 4185-90 (major), 4205 (major), 4213, 4220-23 (major), 4231, 4248-50 (major), 4259, 4268 (major), 4279 (major).
Trading Plan
The context remains very bearish as long as we are sub 4205. If we can hold 4153, we could see a relief bounce. If 4153 fails, we could see another deep leg lower that should see 4126 at least. For those looking for short reactions, 4220-23 and 4248-50 are the best probability spots to look for a dip.
Wrap Up
With Amazon earnings out, we should expect more volatility, and predictability may be difficult. However, if we can defend 4153, we could see a relief bounce with 4171 as a trigger. If 4153 fails, we should expect to continue lower to 4126, 4076.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
10/26 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap
The past week has seen the ES experience an unusual streak of red days, with six out of the last seven days ending in the red. This rare occurrence was followed by a green day on Tuesday as part of a broader relief rally at the Sunday futures open. However, the bulls could not sustain this momentum, and we saw a return to the red. The ES has been base building between 4245 and 4275 but lost this support on Wednesday, triggering a bearish start to the session. The RSI is oversold again, suggesting a potential short squeeze may be on the horizon.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly down a lot, China up slightly
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Mostly down but rallying off earlier lows
🛢 Crude Oil: Down a lot
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Mostly up
Major Global Catalysts
ECB holds rates steady for the first time in 10 meetings.
The US House has a new speaker who’s expected to support a stop-gap spending bill to avoid a government shutdown in November.
Key Structures
The 4335-40 zone remains a major pivot, connecting the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. The 4247-50 zone has been key support over the last few days, but this collapsed on Wednesday. The 4205 area was an important support in May and has been held so far this week.
Support Levels
4214, 4205 (major), 4186-90 (major), 4173, 4163, 4154 (major), 4143, 4127 (major), 4112, 4108, 4101, 4093 (major).
Resistance Levels
4221 (major), 4233, 4247-50 (major), 4258 (major), 4271, 4279 (major), 4290, 4297-4302 (major), 4310, 4322 (major), 4328, 4335-40 (major), 4349, 4355-59 (major)
Trading Plan
The bear case remains dominant until proven otherwise. The best shorts are on backtests, but for those looking at breakdown trades, the failure of 4205 and 4185-90 is key. For the bull case, a reclaim of 4220 is needed to start, then a reclaim of 4247-50. A reclaim of 4220 would open a retest of 4247-50, and from there, it's likely we could see at least a few green days back to 4300.
Wrap Up
While bears remain in control, there is a risk of a short squeeze, which is often sudden and violent. The general lean is that 4185-90 can hold, then try the reclaim of 4220 to push back to 4247-50, dip there, then try higher. If 4185-90 fails, we sell to 4163-53. The key is to remain reactive, trading level to level, and leaving any bullish or bearish big-picture outlook at the door before the trading day starts.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
10/25 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap
Yesterday, ES broke its 5-day red streak, the longest in 2023. The green day was expected as ES tested its primary bull market trendline from the 2020 COVID lows and put in a failed breakdown bottoming setup of last week's lows. This setup led me to go long on Sunday/Monday from 4215, adding to it at Monday's close at 4245. The market action played out as expected, with ES holding 4245 overnight and rallying to 4270s this morning.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Up
🌍 Europe: Near unchanged
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Up slightly
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up
Major Global Catalysts
More stimulus rolled out to boost China’s economy.
Key Structures
Some notable structures/levels from highest to lowest include 4335-40, 4302-4297, 4275, 4245-50, 4220, and 4205.
Support Levels
4268 (major), 4254, 4245-50 (major), 4238, 4237, 4220 (major), 4213, 4205 (major), 4196, 4185-90 (major), 4172, 4163 (major), 4153, 4144, 4126 (major), 4108, 4101, 4090-95 (major), 4076 (major), 4062, 4055, 4045-50 (major).
Resistance Levels
4275 (major), 4280, 4297-4302 (major), 4308, 4314, 4322-25 (major), 4335-40 (major), 4347, 4355, 4366-70 (major), 4376, 4386 (major), 4395, 4402, 4408 (major), 4418, 4424 (major), 4436-39, 4449, 4460 (major).
Trading Plan
The bull case remains unchanged. As long as ES remains above 4245, the 4245-75 zone is considered a consolidation zone to set up a run to 4300ish, then onto 4322, 4335-40. For the bear case, 4245 needs to fail. If 4245 fails, we retest 4220.
Wrap Up
In summary, while tech earnings after hours yesterday could introduce trappy volatility, the general lean remains unchanged. As long as 4245 continues holding (and ideally for bulls now, 4268), we can push back to 4297-4300, perhaps dip, then onto 4322, 4335-40. If 4245 fails, we retest 4220. This level must hold for bulls.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
10/24 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap
Last week, ES ended with a rare 4-day losing streak, pushing the RSI(5) into oversold territory. Despite a short squeeze yesterday, ES failed to close green, ending the day around the same spot as Friday. However, a bullish hammer candle was formed, indicating potential for a bullish follow-up today.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mixed
🌍 Europe: Mixed
🌎 US Index Futures: Up strongly
🛢 Crude Oil: Near unchanged
💵 Dollar: Up
🧐 Yields: Mixed
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
Major Global Catalysts
Yields finally pullback
Key Structures
The breakdown of the core uptrend line from October 2022 through March 2023 was met with a short squeeze that occurred yesterday due to a failed breakdown and hitting multi-year support. As long as 4245 holds, we could see a return to 4272, and possibly 4297-4300.
Support Levels
4242-45, 4227, 4217-20, 4214, 4205, 4185-90, 4173, 4162, 4154, 4145, 4127-30, 4110, 4101, 4092-95, 4075, 4067, 4055, and 4047.
Resistance Levels
4258, 4268-72, 4279, 4287, 4297-4302, 4314, 4322, 4327, 4335, 4342, 4355, 4365, 4372-75, 4385, 4396, 4404, 4408, 4412, 4418, 4427, and 4439.
Trading Plan
The bull case for today would see the 4242 level hold, with any dips below going no lower than 4220 and spiking back up quickly. If this level holds, ES could aim for a green day, re-testing 4270 before heading up to 4297-4300 and 4335. The bear case starts with the failure of 4220-17, with a possible short at 4217 after a clear trendline/structure forms.
Wrap Up
Despite 5 red days in a row, the bulls have shown potential with a failed breakdown of last week's low, a daily hammer candle, and defending the trendline from the COVID lows. As long as 4245 holds, we could see a return to 4272, and possibly 4297-4300. However, failure of 4245 could lead to a retest of 4217-20 and a new leg down to 4185-90.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
10/23 Trading Plan - Last Week Recap and Day AheadRecap
Last Friday, we saw the market slowly grind down through supports all day, with a few minor relief pops. This marked the fourth consecutive red day for ES, closing at the lows. At the same time, the RSI is nearly the most oversold this year, leading to speculation about a potential relief bounce. In this newsletter, we'll discuss the triggers and setups that led to last Friday's selling and break down the actionable trade plan for today.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down a bit
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up
Major Global Catalysts
10-year yield breaks through 5%
Key Structures
Last Thursday, ES lost support of a significant zone that I had been discussing daily for weeks. This zone was a confluence between the core rising bull market trendline from October 2022 and 4330-35, as well as an important horizontal trendline connecting the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. This zone has been referred to as the “bull/bear line” - bulls control above, bears control below.
Support Levels
4215 (major), 4205, 4200, 4190 (major), 4182, 4172, 4163 (major), 4153, 4145 (major), 4134, 4127(major).
Resistance Levels
4259, 4268-70 (major), 4279, 4287, 4297-4302 (major), 4313 (major), 4322, 4330-35 (major), 4342, 4346, 4355, 4365 (major), 4373, 4383-85 (major), 4395, 4399-4400, 4408, 4413 (major), 4424 (major)
Trading Plan
There is no bull case until bulls reclaim a resistance to make the case for one. The main one here is 4330-35, but this is quite a ways away now, and this is needed to set a “bottom”. Shorter-term, 4268-70 would be critical, and reclaim there should start a move back to 4300, then likely all the way back to 4330-35 for the backtest. Bears remain in control until proven otherwise. The best shorts are on bounces (backtests) rather than chasing at lows, especially when RSI is dangerously oversold.
Wrap Up
In summary, bears remain in control, but after 4 red days and with RSI buried, there is a risk of a short squeeze. The focus should be on reacting to the above plan, with a general lean towards a potential relief pop off 4245, before resumption down to a new low to 4222-4215 area. As always, trade what you see, not what you think.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
10/20 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Day AheadRecap
After being in corrective mode for several days, ES arrived at the technical equivalent of ground zero - the 4330-36 zone. This zone is significant as it defines the uptrend that ES has been in for exactly 1 year. The arrival at this zone resulted in some of the most volatile, trap-filled, bipolar price action in many months. The 4330-36 zone was tested 5x over the past 24hrs, with multiple liquidity grabs below and multiple resultant 30-40 point squeezes, before finally losing it late day and flushing hard.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Unchanged
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
Major Global Catalysts
Jay Powell’s hawkish statements.
China imposes restrictions on graphite used in EV batteries in retaliation for new US chip export controls.
Key Structures
Two lines have been discussed for weeks and months. One is the core bull market trendline from October 2022, which fell 4336 yesterday. The other the horizontal trendline connecting the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs. These lines converged at the same spot at 4335-4330, causing significant price action.
Support Levels
4296-4302, 4280, 4268, 4222, 4213, 4205, 4182, 4153.
Resistance Levels
4330-35, 4355-57, 4373, 4385, 4413, 4418, 4439, 4460, 4468, 4480-85.
Trading Plan
For any "bull case" in a sustained sense, 4330-35 must reclaim. If we continue selling today, 4268 is the absolute lowest bulls can see, as below there we start down to new lows at 4222. In terms of spots to add on strength before 4335, reclaims of 4302 are of interest. The bear case today begins on the fail of 4296-4302. If ES accepts this zone overnight and clearly fails to push and builds a base - very low 4290s/high 4280s 1 spot to try a "breakdown short". The next "big short" for me comes on the fail of 4268.
Wrap Up
We have lost a major support at 4330-35 and put in a big red day. It is likely the level backtests from below now. My general lean is we can perhaps push lower to 4279 or 4268 lowest, then attempt to backtest 4330-35. If 4302 reclaims, we may backtest direct. New lows below 4268.
10/19 Trading Plan - Wednesday Recap and Day AheadRecap
Yesterday marked the fifth consecutive day of intensive rangebound trading, making it one of the choppiest days in recent months. It ended with a late-day downward trend, following a 187-point rally from the October 6th low. The market spent nearly a week in consolidation mode, oscillating between 4366 and 4418. This range eventually tightened and peaked yesterday before finally breaking. The 4375-67 zone was a key battleground, with the market bouncing there twice before finally breaking down mid-day.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down a lot
🌍 Europe: Down a bit
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Down
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Up a bit
🔮 Crypto: Mixed
Major Global Catalysts
Yields and mortgage rates approaching two-decade highs.
Key Structures
The key structures to note include 4477-82, 4418, 4374-67, 4336, 4330, 4302, and 4268. Each of these represents important pivot points or trendlines that have influenced the market's movements.
Support Levels
4343, 4335, 4329, 4322, 4314, 4302, 4292, 4286, 4279, 4266-68, 4258, 4251, 4233, 4227, 4224, 4213, and 4205.
Resistance Levels
4356, 4367, 4373-75, 4385, 4394, 4404, 4412, 4416-18, 4432, 4338, 4449, 4458-60, 4473, 4480-85, 4494, 4505-07, 4515, 4525, 4532-35, 4542, and 4549.
Trading Plan
For bulls, the 4330-36 zone must hold, and 4373-75 must be reclaimed to set a "bottom". For bears, a fail of 4335 could initiate a bearish move. In both cases, avoid chasing and aim for entries close to recent highs/lows or near a recent base.
Wrap Up
The market is still in a corrective phase following last week's rally. The core bull market trendline from October 2022 at 4330-36 was backtested late yesterday and will be key today. If 4330-36 holds, we could backtest 4373-75 once more. If it fails, we could start a leg lower to 4302. The RSI is now extremely oversold, indicating a potential for a reversal.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
10/18 Trading Plan - Tuesday Recap and Day AheadRecap
This trend continued yesterday as the ES continued to build a base between 4360 and 4410-20. Despite a lucrative run today, ES has ultimately been displaying a lot of volatility to go nowhere, as we continue to base in the 4410-20 to 4360s range. This will inevitably result in a large trend move. But in which direction?
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Mostly down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Down
🛢 Crude Oil: Up
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up slightly
🔮 Crypto: Mixed
Major Global Catalysts
Markets nervous as Israel-Hamas war intensifies, Biden visits Israel, and Jordan cancels planned summit with Biden and Arab leaders.
Euro area inflation declines.
Key Structures
Some big-picture structures/levels that are notable from highest to lowest include 4478-85, 4418-24, 4375-67, 4336, and 4327. These are not comprehensive and are simply major structures to take note of, and they are not predictive.
Support Levels
4390-93 (major), 4375 (major), 4367, 4355, 4343 (major), 4335 (major), 4327, 4314, 4299-4302, 4288 (major), 4278, 4269-70 (major), 4263 (major), 4255, 4244, 4224-27 (major), 4212, 4205-08 (major).
Resistance Levels
4403, 4408 (major), 4418 (major), 4424, 4430, 4439 (major), 4443, 4452-55 (major), 4462, 4471, 4478 (major), 4485 (major), 4496, 4505-07 (major), 4515, 4526, 4532 (major).
Trading Plan
We remain in a total chop zone, and I consider everything between 4418 and 4367-75 as being pure noise. It is not hard to trade - as long as you do not over-trade. Take your level-to-level piece and quit for the day. 4390-93 is first support and we are here as of writing. This is very well tested now. One could bid it at your own risk, or safer is to wait for it to flush and reclaim something like test 90 and pop above 93.
Wrap Up
In summary for today: We remain in chop and 4418-4367 is total noise and the action inside it is not predictable. My general lean is that as long as 4367 keeps holding though, ES can fill out this range more then attempt a break out to 4418, 4439, 4452-55. Ideally for bulls, 4390 can hold before this, but it is not fully necessary. If 4367 fails, we should see a good sell that sees 4342 at minimum.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
10/17 Trading Plan - Monday Recap and Day AheadRecap
Last week saw the ES snapping its five-week losing streak. The catalyst? A recapturing of its core bull market trendline from October 2022 on the 6th, triggering a robust 187-point rally. Though the week ended on a lower note, it presented a tactical buying opportunity. ES is currently in a 3-day limbo, fluctuating between 4410 and 4355 since last Wednesday.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: On the Rise
🌍 Europe: A Mixed Bag
🌎 US Index Futures: Plunging
🛢 Crude Oil: Slightly Higher
💵 Dollar: Mild Gains
🧐 Yields: Strong Upward Trend
🔮 Crypto: Taking a Hit
Major Global Catalysts
US to Ease Sanctions on Venezuelan Oil Industry
Middle East on the Cusp of Widespread Conflict
Key Structures
Some big-picture structures/notable levels from highest to lowest include 4477, 4418, 4408-10, 4375-66, 4336, 4322-25, and 4314.
Support Levels
4477, 4418, 4408-10, 4375-66, 4336, 4322-25, 4314.
Resistance Levels
4408-10, 4418, 4424, 4433, 4439-42, 4450-55, 4462, 4471, 4478, 4484-88, 4496, 4504-08, 4515, 4526, 4532, and 4543.
Trading Plan
The goal for Tuesday is to trade level to level, one move at a time. If we break higher today, I am not a big fan of counter-trending, but for those who enjoy it, the 4439 zone would be one spot, as would be 4450-55. If 4366 fails, I would consider a breakdown short after at 4362. Level to level profit takes.
Wrap Up
In summary, we had a great rally yesterday, and now it's time to build a base. My general lean here is that ES can fill out the 4408 to 4366 range. This would then produce another leg up to 4418, 4439, then 4450+. If 4366 fails, we work down the levels, likely to 4325.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
10/16 Trading Plan - Friday Recap and Week AheadRecap
This week started off with a statistically significant rally, with 4 green days in a row, totaling a 187 point rally from last Friday’s low to this week's high. This made it the largest 4-day green stretch of the year. After 5 red weeks in a row, ES managed to put in its first green week, marking a reversal week. However, after reaching major resistance, ES began a corrective leg last Thursday.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Up
🌎 US Index Futures: Up
🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit
💵 Dollar: Down a bit
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up strongly
Major Global Catalysts
China’s central bank boots liquidity, leaves rates unchanged.
Key Structures
There are several key structures to note. The first is the 4477 backtest of the yellow triangle structure that we broke down on September 20th. The next is the 4418-24 backtest of the horizontal line connecting the June 26th low with the August 25th low. The 4377-66 zone represents the downsloping blue trendline connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows. The 4336 pivot is the backtest of the 9-month base we broke out on June 1st. Finally, the 4320-22 is the core bull market uptrend line.
Support Levels
4358-55, 4336, 4320-22, 4302, 4277, 4258, 4227, 4200-05. These are the levels that I would consider bidding direct.
Resistance Levels
4376, 4387-90, 4406-08, 4418-24, 4444-46, 4462, 4477, 4493-96, 4508. These are the levels where I would look for reactions short.
Trading Plan
For bulls, the big picture case is in play as long as we are above the core bull market trend at 4320-22. For bears, the case begins on the fail of 4320-22. I don't chase, so my goal is always to get in as close as possible to either a recent high/low, or near a recent base. The best shorts are on bounces or backtests, not on chasing red.
Wrap Up
In conclusion, as long as 4355-58 keeps holding (4345 on any quick spikes down) I favor ES continues to fill out this new three-day range. If we continue selling deeper, 4320-22 is the absolute lowest bulls can see. A failure there puts a retest of 4250 in play.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
10/13 Trading Plan - Thursday Recap and Looking AheadRecap
Yesterday was a volatile trading day, with the CPI data release causing some significant market movements. The initial move down to 4393 was a trap for shorts, followed by a squeeze to ~4418, which trapped longs, and then a significant move lower. This pattern of trapping is common on data days, making them challenging to trade. The past week has been incredibly bullish, with four consecutive green days and a rally spanning 187 points from last Friday's low to yesterday's high. The trigger for this rally was ES reclaiming its 11-month bull market trendline last Friday at ~4315.
A key development was the rising wedge pattern that formed and broke down on the 4-hour chart. This bearish pattern indicates increasing momentum to the upside within a narrowing range and decreasing volume, signaling a reversal when the uptrend line is broken. The breakdown from this wedge contributed to yesterday's selloff.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Down
🌎 US Index Futures: Up slightly
🛢 Crude Oil: Up strongly
💵 Dollar: Down slightly
🧐 Yields: Down
🔮 Crypto: Up
Major Global Catalysts
Inflation fears are still in sight, as Thursday’s data showed an uptick
Israel calls for evacuation of Gaza within 24 hours
Banks kicked off earnings this morning, with JPMorgan and Wells Fargo topping expectations.
Key Structures
Several key structures were notable in yesterday's trading. At 4438, we see a backtest to the wedge structure on the daily chart that we broke down on September 26th. The 4416-18 level backtests the horizontal line connecting the June 26th low with the August 25th low, a key breakdown area. The 4377-66 zone represents the downsloping orange channel connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows, a key support level.
Support Levels
4377, 4367 (major), 4360, 4352 (major), 4345, 4336 (major), 4318-22 (major), 4302 (major), 4296, 4278-80 (major), 4268, 4255 (major), 4237, 4226 (major), 4214, 4200-05 (major), 4190, 4179 (major), 4160-62 (major), 4153.
Resistance Levels
4387-90 (major) 4399 (major), 4408, 4416-18 (major), 4425, 4436-39 (major), 4449, 4453, 4462 (major), 4468, 4473-76 (major), 4488, 4496 (major), 4507, 4515, 4523-25 (major), 4532, 4537, 4542 (major).
Trading Plan
For bulls, the plan is to see the late day attempted failed breakdown continue to hold. As long as the 4377, 4366 support zone continues to hold, a path higher could develop. For bears, the case begins on the failure of 4366. The goal is to get in as close as possible to either a recent high/low, or near a recent base.
Wrap Up
Yesterday was a volatile session, with bulls putting in a failed breakdown setup late in the day. This could lead to a tradeable bounce today, with a potential path higher if the 4377, 4366 support zone continues to hold. If 4366 fails, we may see a further retracement.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision