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Paradigm Shift or Panic Selling? ES Futures Weekly PlanCME_MINI:ES1! Macro Update: The escalation of reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures have sent shockwaves through markets, with widespread selloffs across asset classes, including gold. Fund managers and investors were forced to liquidate positions to cover margin calls. The likelihood of a global recession has surged, with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of a US recession to 45% from 35%. Meanwhile, JPMorgan increased its global and US recession odds to 60%, up from 40%, due to intensifying tariff tensions. The March 2025 Federal Reserve’s SEP projections suggest slowing growth amid rising inflation concerns, pointing in the right direction. Is this a paradigm shift, or was it already set in motion earlier in the decade? Or is this simply panic selling, with the expectation that US administration policy will soon stabilize markets? If it is a paradigm shift—as seems more likely based on recent developments—the current environment could prove historic, aligning with Ray Dalio's concepts on the changing world order, debt crises, and how nations go bankrupt. Investor Confidence: ES futures are currently down over 20%, entering bear market territory for the first time since the 2020 pandemic crash. The big question now is whether we’ll see a relief rally or continued sell-offs with occasional pullbacks, or if markets are establishing a new value range based on auction market principles. • 2024 YTD mCVAL: 5379.75 • 2022 CVAH: 5376 • March 2025 Low: 5533.75 • August 5th, 2024 Low: 5306.75 • Neutral LVN: 5191.50 - 5156.25 • April 4th, 2025 Low: 5074 • 2024 Yearly Low: 5016.25 • CVPOC 2022: 4610.50 Scenario 1: Further Downside The key downside level for ES Futures is 4610.50, where the most volume has been transacted since 2022. Currently, ES Futures are trading above this level. If the market establishes a value range between 4900 and 4500, further selling with brief pullbacks and consolidation above the 2022 CVPOC seems likely. Scenario 2: Relief Rally For a rally to take hold, ES Futures faces key resistance levels: the 2024 Low at 5016.25 and the pWeek Low at 5074. If markets sustainably stay above these levels, we could see a rally toward the 2022 CVAH at 5376. However, the sustainability of such a rally remains in question given the mountain of uncertainties ahead. It is important to note that uncertainty tends to create highly volatile market regimes. Traders should adjust the expected daily range accordingly. A good indicator to measure this is “Daily Average True Range”, many traders also rely on close-to-close standard deviation bands to gauge range on a given trading day. As such, we could see moves of 3% or more in either direction on any day.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
ES Futures Weekly Trade Plan & Navigating Turbulent Waters CME_MINI:ES1! Macro Analogy The current market landscape and macroeconomic environment can be compared to the dynamics of "sticks and carrots." The market is largely headline-driven, responding to the shifting expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's stance, political events (such as the ongoing influence of the Trump administration), and sidelined investors who are waiting for a clearer signal on where to allocate capital. Looking at the market action, the low on March 13th, 2025, could mark a point of sector reallocation. Specifically, the Russell 2000 index is currently leading, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trailing behind. This suggests a shift in investor sentiment from large-cap stocks to smaller, potentially more dynamic sectors. In the backdrop, Federal Reserve speakers scheduled throughout the week may help clarify their position on the evolving macroeconomic situation, notably the persistent risk of stagflation. The challenge for central banks is becoming increasingly apparent: balancing rising inflation, increasing unemployment, and slowing growth while striving to meet their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. These pressures are intensifying the difficulty of effective policymaking. If we liken the US administration to a ship navigating through turbulent waters, the Federal Reserve could be seen as a submarine working behind the scenes to stabilize and support the administration. Chair Jerome Powell, at the controls, is leveraging all available tools to ensure financial stability. Meanwhile, at the helm of the ship is the US President, whose decisions and actions impact the broader economic environment, either calming or exacerbating the turbulence. The new adventures of the Gulf of America have entered uncharted territory. In this context, last week's actions, slowing the pace of Quantitative Tightening (QT)served as the "carrot," aimed at cushioning the economic pain despite worsening economic forecasts. However, the message that FED sounded was that, due to uncertainty, our forecasts are subject to change. Take them with a pinch of salt. ES Futures Big Picture: The ES futures market is currently testing key resistance levels, and this zone will serve as a critical inflection point for both bulls and bears. The next steps will likely hinge on the clarity emerging from both macro events and Fed commentary. Key Levels to Watch: • Yearly Open 2025: 6001.25 • Key LIS (Last Important Support/Resistance): 5850–5860 • Low Volume Node (LVN): 5770–5760 • Neutral Zone: 5705–5720 • Key Support Mid-Range 2024: 5626.50 • 2024-YTD mCVAL (Market Composite Value): 5505.25 • 2022 CVAH (Composite Value at High): 5341 Scenario 1: Rejection at Key Resistance In this scenario, we expect rejection at the key LIS levels, with further consolidation below the 5850–5860 range before the April 2nd reciprocal tariff deadline. This could lead to a retracement back toward the LVN area (5770–5760) and a potential drop to the neutral zone around 5705–5720. Scenario 2: Market Participants Expecting Less Severe Tariffs Should market participants anticipate less severe reciprocal tariffs than initially planned, but remain uncertain about the broader macroeconomic picture, we could see the price push above the key LIS levels. This would likely result in a consolidation phase until more clarity emerges, with the market continuing to trade in a volatile range above key LIS.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Recap: Weekly Trade Plan March 10th, 2025CME_MINI:ES1! In this TradingView blog, we will recap our trade plan posted on March 10th, 2025. Please note that this is a recap, and since then, we have also published our updated price map and weekly plan for the current week. Today is also the Federal Reserve's decision day. Here is our updated price map from the weekly plan published on March 10th, 2025: Our updated price map for ES Futures Key Levels: • Important Level to reclaim if no correction: 5795.25 - 5800 • Key LVN: 5738 - 5696 • Mid 2024 range: 5574.50 • Key Support: 5567.25 - 5528.75 • 2024-YTD mCVAL: 5449.25 • 2022 CVAH: 5280.25 It is important to note that when we provide our thoughts and reasoning for the levels we map in our recap, we have the benefit of hindsight. Likewise, when we publish our weekly trading plan and share our thoughts at the start of the week, we are anticipating potential market movements on the hard right edge. This is where randomness and uncertainty are key points. If we were to rank our process chronologically, this is how we note the importance of each component that makes up our plan. 1. Big Picture 2. Key Levels/Price Map 3. Scenarios Our big picture is based on how we view the global macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. Key levels are mapped utilizing our methodology considering market auction theory and volume profiling. Note how our key level, 'Mid-range 2024', on higher time frame provided support. At times you may see two scenarios, at other times three. Scenarios are just an anticipation which a trader should adjust should any new information come to light. Although you may note that our scenarios play out mostly from reviewing our blogs. Our aim is to help you create a process for yourself. Note how we anticipated near-mirroring price action for the week, though our reasoning was influenced by higher inflation data. However, the inflation reading came in lower than expected. Fast forward to today, all eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, SEP, and the FOMC press conference scheduled for later today.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
ES Futures Market Outlook & Key LevelsCME_MINI:ES1! As we discussed in last week’s TradingView blog, the ES futures are currently undergoing a 10% correction. You can access the full context through the link here. Rollover Notice: Today marks the rollover of ES futures to the June 2025 contract. The rollover adjustment using Friday’s settlement prices for ESH2025 and ESM2025 is +52.25. To map out the new levels for ESM2025, simply add +52.25 to the levels on ESH2025. Note: TradingView will roll over the continuous ES1! chart on Tuesday, March 18, 2025. Key Events This Week: This week, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision , FOMC press conference , and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP ), which includes the Fed’s dot plot, inflation expectations, and growth forecasts for the next two years. This release will set the tone for market movements, at least until the clarity of the looming reciprocal tariffs deadline on April 2, 2025. Key Levels to Watch: • Bullish LIS / Yearly Open 2025: 5,949.25 • Key Level to Reclaim: 5,795 - 5,805 • Resistance Zone: 5,704.50 - 5,719.75 • Bearish LIS / Mid Range 2024: 5,574.50 • 2024-YTD mCVAL: 5,449.25 • 2022 CVAH: 5,280.25 Market Scenarios: Scenario 1: Fed Support ("Fed Put") The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady this week. However, markets are forward-looking, so the key focus will be on the updated SEP forecast and the Fed’s press conference. A dovish stance and flexibility to support the US economy, including rate cut expectations moving to the May/June meetings, will drive sentiment. This would imply markets pricing in more rate cuts throughout 2025. The CME Fedwatch tool is a useful resource for tracking Fed fund probabilities and comparing these with the dot plot projections. Scenario 2: Trade War 2.0 If the Fed remains in a "wait and see" mode, maintaining a restrictive stance while uncertainties surrounding Trade War 2.0 persist, markets may face heightened volatility. The combination of a restrictive Fed policy and geopolitical tensions could act as a double whammy for markets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Recap ES Futures Weekly PlanCME_MINI:ES1! In this TradingView blog, we’ll recap the price action and share our insights from the weekly trade plan posted on March 3rd, 2025. Our Scenario 3 highlighted mounting risks, with weaker economic data reigniting the stagflation theme. While the price action largely aligned with our expectations, it extended further downward than anticipated. Economic data was mixed: PMIs exceeded expectations, while the NFP report came in lower than forecasted. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings data showed mixed results. The Month-over-Month figures were in line with expectations, but Year-over-Year average hourly earnings came in slightly lower at 4% versus the consensus of 4.1%. In addition, headline news and tariff uncertainties dampened sentiment across the board. Our approach primarily involves volume profiling and market auction theory to map out price levels and set expectations based on the prevailing market context at the start of each week. However, as fundamentals, macroeconomic factors, geopolitics, and headline news gain increasing significance and impact the market, we draw on our accumulated experience to incorporate these elements into our analysis. When market regimes shift, technical analysis alone often proves insufficient. A strong understanding of fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, and geopolitics is crucial to staying aligned with what’s actually happening in the markets, rather than relying on your personal thoughts and assumptions. Given the myriad factors influencing the economy and markets, traders should recognize that each approach has its merits. We recommend sticking with the strategy that works best for you.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Putting the current pullback from ATHs into context ES FuturesCME_MINI:ES1! Big Picture: ATH on December 6th, 2024: 6,184.50 There has been no significant correction or pullback since the ATH. Currently, the market has pulled back ~8.20% from the ATH. The previous correction (over a 10% pullback, but less than a 20% downturn) occurred after ES futures hit an all-time high of 5,856 on July 15th, 2024. The market bottomed out on August 5th, 2024. Currently, ES futures are trading below the 50% retracement level from the ATH on December 6th, 2024, and the swing low on August 5th, 2024, at 5,719.25. Given the current "risk-off" sentiment, let's review the updated price map for ES Futures. Key Levels: Important level to reclaim if no correction: 5,795.25 - 5,800 Key LVN (Low Volume Node): 5,738 - 5,696 Mid 2024 range: 5,574.50 Key Support: 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 2024 YTD mCVAL (Market Composite Value Area Low): 5,449.25 2022 CVAH (Composite Value Area High): 5,280 Key Support: 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 This zone is important in the event of a 10% pullback, which could lead to a bounce thereafter. On our regular 4-hour time frame, which we use for weekly analysis and preparation, higher lows have been breached, and ES futures are now trading below the lows from November 4th, 2024, January 13th, 2025, and February 28th, 2025. The probable next downside target is the 50% retracement of the 2024 range, which stands at 5,574.50. Unless we see a sustained bounce that reclaims the 5,795.25 - 5,800 zone, the key support level at 5,567.25 - 5,528.75 is likely to be tested, aligning with our expected 10% pullback. Note that a bear market (i.e., a pullback greater than 20%) wouldn't begin until prices drop to around 4,900, which is still about 750 points away from the current price level of 5,650. Considering all the above, what can we expect this week? CPI and PPI data are due this week, and the market is currently in "risk-off" mode. This sentiment is exacerbated by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on needing more data before altering rate path, combined with tariffs complicating the US economy. What price level might prompt policymakers to adjust their stance? The Fed’s dual mandate considers both 2% inflation and low unemployment. With the unemployment rate edging above 4% and inflation remaining high, this upcoming inflation reading is critical. We believe this report may trigger volatility not seen in recent months with CPI releases. We have the SEP and FOMC rate decision coming up on March 19th, 2024. Scenario 1: Soft CPI than expectations Expecting volatile price action, however, a V-shaped recovery given softer CPI reading. Markets go in wait and see Scenario 2: Range bound week In this scenario, we expect a range bound week, with inflation print in line and markets in wait and see mode for FED FOMC announcement. Scenario 3: High CPI print With a higher CPI print, FED will be in a difficult position to cut rates. Will this bad news be bad for the market or good? Mounting risks point to further downside if we do not get any pivot on macro level to support the economy.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Weekly plan: ESH2025NYSE:ES FUTURES 3/3/2025 6012>> 6056>>> 6083-93 Weekly pivot: 5970 , Now Trading @ 5957 5919>> 5878>>> 5828 CONTEXT: NYSE:ES closed Friday's session with massive spike to the upside. Now NYSE:ES is back inside the previous balance zone that extends to 214 points range with 6056 for half back, however we need to be cautious since daily chart still is One Time Framing Down (OTFD) which would end if NYSE:ES is able to recapture or trade above 5971, at that point we will need to redraw daily balance zone. @everyone
CME_MINI:ES1!
by dhjesus
Leap Ahead with a Dual Breakout Setup on ES and MESThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade S&P 500 Futures TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition gives traders the opportunity to test their futures trading strategies in a competitive environment. Participants have access to select CME Group futures contracts, including E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) and Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES). This article presents a dual breakout trade setup, analyzing both bullish and bearish scenarios based on key Fibonacci levels and low volatility price ranges. The goal is to trade the breakout of a well-defined range and target either a Fibonacci extension to the upside or a retracement level to the downside. Understanding Breakouts and Fibonacci Levels A breakout occurs when price moves beyond a defined support or resistance level, often leading to a strong trend continuation. In this case, the trading range between 6146.75 and 6121.25 is the key level to watch. A breakout above this range suggests bullish momentum, while a breakout below signals bearish pressure. Fibonacci retracement levels are used to identify potential support or resistance zones based on past price movements. The 50% retracement level at 5985.75 aligns with a UFO support, making it a key downside target if price breaks lower. Fibonacci extension levels project potential price targets beyond the most recent high or low. The 100% Fibonacci extension at 6288.75 serves as the projected upside target if price breaks higher. The Dual Breakout Trade Setup In a bullish scenario, a breakout above 6146.75 confirms entry to the upside. The target for this trade is the 100% Fibonacci extension at 6288.75. A stop loss is placed below the breakout level at a distance that ensures a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. In a bearish scenario, a breakdown below 6121.25 confirms entry to the downside. The target is the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 5985.75, which aligns with a UFO support zone. A stop loss is placed above the breakdown level, ensuring a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Risk management considerations include adjusting stop losses based on a trader’s preferred risk-reward ratio. Scaling out at intermediate levels can help manage volatility and secure partial profits. Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) details: Full contract specs: ES Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: $50 x S&P 500 Index Tick size: 0.25 index points ($12.50 per tick) Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility – Currently ≈$15,000 per contract. Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES) details: Full contract specs: MES Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: $5 x S&P 500 Index (1/10th of ES) Tick size: 0.25 index points ($1.25 per tick) Lower margin requirements make it more accessible for smaller accounts – Currently ≈$1,500 per contract. Leverage in ES and MES magnifies both potential gains and losses. Traders should consider margin requirements and market conditions when determining position sizes. Execution and Market Conditions Before executing a trade, a typical breakout trader would watch price confirm a breakout by sustaining above or below the key levels. Additional confirmation from volume trends and momentum indicators can improve trade accuracy. If price does not break out, the setup remains invalid. If a false breakout occurs, traders may need to reassess conditions before re-entering. Conclusion A dual breakout setup provides both bullish and bearish opportunities depending on price movement. Fibonacci extensions provide upside targets, while retracement levels align with strong support zones for downside moves. For participants in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of disciplined execution, confirmation, and structured risk management. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
S&P ES Long setup target 6129 / Calls SPY target 605Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures CME_MINI:ES1! has already found support at the Fib level 78.6% (6020.50) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 17) has closed above retracement Fib level 78.6%. My Down Fib guides me to look for ES1! to eventually go up to hit first target at Fib level 127.2% (6129.00). CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 127.2% (6129.00), Target 2 at 161.8% (6206.00) and Target 3 at 178.6 (6243.50) Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (5983.00). Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart Down Fib shows price to go up to Target 1 at 127.2% (605), Target 2 at 161.8% (613) and Target 3 at 178.6 (616) Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (592).
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by rose_excellence
Behind the Curtain: Key Influencers of S&P 500 Futures Returns1. Introduction The S&P 500 Futures (ES) represents one of the most actively traded futures contracts globally, serving as a benchmark for U.S. equity markets. Its liquidity and versatility make it a prime choice for traders seeking exposure to market movements. However, the factors driving these movements are far from random. Economic indicators often play a pivotal role in influencing the direction and volatility of S&P 500 Futures. In this article, we dive into how various economic indicators shape the performance of S&P 500 Futures on daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. Leveraging machine learning, specifically a Random Forest Regressor, we’ve identified the top drivers of these futures’ returns. The findings offer traders actionable insights to fine-tune their strategies and understand the broader market dynamics. 2. Understanding S&P 500 Futures Product Specifications: Tick Size: Each tick represents 0.25 index points, equivalent to $12.50 per tick. Trading Hours: Nearly 24-hour trading cycle, ensuring liquidity across time zones. Micro Contracts: Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures (MES): Designed for smaller-scale traders with a contract size 1/10th of the standard E-mini contract. Advantages: Lower initial margin requirements and smaller tick values allow traders to manage positions more flexibly. Margin Requirements: Initial and maintenance margins vary based on volatility and market conditions. Currently around $15,500 per contract. Micro contracts offer significantly lower margin requirements, making them ideal for retail traders or those testing strategies. Currently around $1,550 per contract. 3. Key Economic Indicators Influencing S&P 500 Futures Daily Impacts: 1. Labor Force Participation Rate: Reflects the percentage of the working-age population that is employed or actively seeking employment. A rise in this rate often signals economic optimism, driving equities higher. 2. Building Permits: Tracks the number of new residential construction permits issued. A strong rise in permits indicates confidence in the housing market, which can positively influence broader economic sentiment and equities. 3. Initial Jobless Claims: A leading indicator of labor market health, providing real-time insights into layoffs. Weekly fluctuations can significantly impact intraday futures trading. Weekly Impacts: 1. Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y): A measure of credit risk in the economy, reflecting the difference between corporate bond yields and Treasury yields. Widening spreads often signal economic uncertainty, weighing on equity markets. 2. Velocity of Money (M2): Represents the rate at which money circulates in the economy. High velocity can indicate economic expansion, while slowing velocity may suggest stagnation, affecting equity futures trends. 3. Net Exports: Tracks the balance of a country’s exports and imports. Positive trends often boost market optimism, whereas persistent deficits can trigger concerns about economic health. Monthly Impacts: 1. Oil Import Price Index: Reflects the cost of imported crude oil, which has ripple effects on production costs across industries. Rising oil import prices may pressure corporate earnings, impacting the broader S&P 500 index. 2. PPI: Processed Foods and Feeds: Tracks price changes in processed agricultural products, offering insights into supply chain pressures. Sharp increases can hint at inflationary risks, influencing long-term equity market sentiment. 3. Consumer Sentiment Index: o Measures consumer confidence, a leading indicator of economic health. o High sentiment often signals robust consumer spending, which supports equities. 4. Applications for Different Trading Styles Day Traders: Focus on daily indicators like Initial Jobless Claims and Labor Force Participation Rate. Example: A sudden drop in jobless claims could signal short-term economic strength, providing day traders with bullish opportunities. Swing Traders (Weekly): Leverage weekly trends like Corporate Bond Spread or Velocity of Money (M2). Example: A narrowing bond spread might indicate improving business confidence, aligning with medium-term bullish positions. Position Traders (Monthly): Use monthly indicators such as Oil Import Price Index and Consumer Sentiment Index to identify macroeconomic trends. Example: Rising consumer sentiment could indicate a stronger economy, supporting long-term bullish strategies in S&P 500 Futures. 5. Risk Management Through Indicator Analysis Refining Entry and Exit Points: Use indicator data to align trades with anticipated market shifts. For instance, an uptick in the Oil Import Price Index might signal upcoming headwinds for equities. Managing Leverage: Understanding the volatility drivers like Treasury Yields can help traders adjust position sizes to manage risk effectively. Diversification Across Timeframes: Incorporate insights from multiple timeframes to hedge risks. For example, while short-term indicators may suggest volatility, long-term metrics can provide stability signals. Hedging Strategies: Use correlated assets or options to mitigate downside risks. Combining economic indicator analysis with market seasonality can enhance portfolio resilience. 6. Conclusion Economic indicators provide invaluable insights into the drivers of S&P 500 Futures, helping traders align their strategies with market trends. Whether focusing on daily volatility from indicators like Initial Jobless Claims or broader monthly trends such as the Consumer Sentiment Index, understanding these relationships can enhance trading decisions. By leveraging machine learning and data-driven analysis, this article highlights how indicators shape market movements across various timeframes. The insights empower traders to adopt tailored approaches—whether intraday, swing, or long-term—while improving risk management practices. This framework not only applies to S&P 500 Futures but can also be extended to other markets. Stay tuned for the next article in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we explore another futures market and its relationship with key economic indicators. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
S&P ES Short setup target 5811 / Put SPY target 574Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) has already found resistance at the Fib level 78.6% (6057.75) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 7) has closed below retracement Fib level 38.2% (5963.75). My Down Fib guides me to look for CME_MINI:ES1! to eventually go down to hit first target at Fib level -27.2% (5811.50). S&P CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 5811.50, Target 2 at -61.8% (5731) and Target 3 at -78.6 (5691.75) Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (5991.25). Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart (Down Fib from 602.48 to 580.50) shows price to go down to Target 1 at -27.2% (574.52), Target 2 at -61.8% (566.92) and Target 3 at -78.6 (563.22) Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (591.50).
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by rose_excellence
ES Futures Trade Idea- NFP Week Big Picture ES Futures: ES Futures are trading above yearly and monthly open at 5,949.25. On the weekly time-frame, we see the inside week on December 23, 2024. This was broken to the downside last week, and it closed back in prior week’s range. However, it is still inside of the FOMC December 2024 week. Sellers have failed to push lower and buyers have been stepping in around 5,875 and 5,850 levels. Looking at Volume Profile since 2024, we note that price is staying above Composite Value Area High. Acceptance of higher prices can be noted at yearly open level where high volume node (HVN) is visible and 6,150 level where another high volume node (HVN) is visible. All time highs are not far off. This week features a busy calendar with major events, including the NFP jobs report and a shortened trading day on January 9th in honor of President Carter. Key Levels: Yearly Open | LIS (Line in Sand): 5,949.25 CVAH: 5,854.25 Neutral Zone: 6,035 - 6,050 Key Support 1: 5,854.25 - 5,864.25 Resistance R1: 6,105 - 6,115 Resistance R2: 6,145 - 6,155 All time highs: 6,184.50 Scenario 1: New All Time Highs ES consolidates above neutral to test R1. Break above R1, will open a path towards testing All time highs this month. Scenario 2: Deeper Pullback Any push from sellers that takes prices below CVAH/Key Support 1 will create further downside pressure to test 5,800 and 5,750 bull supports.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
Weekly Trading Plan: ES Futures 1/6/2025Market Context The ES Futures market is currently balancing, with a defined pivot point at 5964. This plan focuses on trading around the pivot while targeting key upside and downside levels. We’ll also prepare for potential failure scenarios where the market tests beyond key levels but fails to sustain momentum. Key Levels Pivot (Midpoint): 5964 Upside Targets: 6056 6107 6146 Downside Targets: 5875 5819 5785 🧑‍💼 Strategy Overview Objective: Trade within the balancing market, utilizing the pivot (5964) as a directional bias. Prepare for possible breakout failures near key levels. Risk Management: Place stops just outside extreme levels to mitigate breakout traps. Execution Plan: Execute trades systematically based on price action confirmation near pivot and target levels. Trade Execution Plan Pivot Zone: 5964 If price holds above 5964: Look for long opportunities targeting upside levels. If price breaks and holds below 5964: Look for short opportunities targeting downside levels. Upside Trade Setup: Entry: Enter long positions near 5964 on confirmation of support (e.g., bullish candlesticks or strong buying momentum). Targets: 6056 6107 6146 Downside Trade Setup: Entry: Enter short positions near 5964 on confirmation of resistance (e.g., bearish candlesticks or strong selling momentum). Targets: 5875 5819 5785 ⚡ Failure Scenarios Looking Above 6146 and Failing: Scenario: The market breaches 6146, signaling a breakout, but quickly reverses back below. Trade Opportunity: Short the market on confirmation of failure (e.g., rejection candles, increasing sell volume). Targets: 6107 → 6056 → Pivot (5964) Stop Loss: Place stops just above 6146 to avoid prolonged breakout risk. Looking Below 5785 and Failing: Scenario: The market breaches 5785, signaling a downside breakout, but quickly reverses back above. Trade Opportunity: Long the market on confirmation of failure (e.g., rejection candles, increasing buy volume). Targets: 5819 → 5875 → Pivot (5964) Stop Loss: Place stops just below 5785 to avoid prolonged breakout risk. Fake Breakout from Pivot (5964): Scenario: The market shows a breakout from 5964 but fails to sustain momentum and reverses. Trade Opportunity: Trade in the direction of the failed breakout, targeting the opposite side of the range. Stop Loss: Place stops just outside the failed breakout level. 💡 Risk Management Position Sizing: Risk no more than 1-2% of your account balance per trade. Tighten stops to minimize loss in failure scenarios. Break-Even Adjustments: Move stops to break-even once the first target is achieved. 📈 Trade Monitoring Order Flow Analysis: Monitor volume and order flow near key levels for signs of breakout or failure. Market Context Update: Adapt the plan if the market establishes a new range or breaks out of balance. 💰 Exit Plan Take profits incrementally at each target. Exit immediately if the market signals sustained breakout momentum beyond extreme levels. 🔔 Stay disciplined and adapt to price action! #ESFutures #WeeklyPlan #BalanceZone #RiskManagement
CME_MINI:ES1!
by dhjesus
Trade Idea 2024-12-30 and Review of 2024As the year comes to a close, we expect it to be a quiet week. If you haven’t already, now is an excellent time to set your trading goals for the coming year. Where will your focus be? Which markets will you trade actively? What is your risk management plan? It is also a good time to complete a review for 2024 if you have not already! Keeping a trading journal is essential for tracking progress and learning from your mistakes. Active trading, like other high-performance activities, requires resilience, focus, and a winning mindset, but even with these attributes, losses are a natural part of the process. Always trade with a clear plan, manage your risks effectively, and never trade with more capital than you can afford to lose. As we wrap up the year, we are sharing a couple of the most popular charts we reviewed in 2024 and reflecting on the following questions we asked ourselves: What has the market done? What is it trying to do? How good of a job is it doing? What is likely to happen from here? Volume profile provides key insights into market auction and interaction of buyers and sellers. This is how we approach markets although there are many other ways of doing so. Big Picture ES Futures: Key Levels: 2024 mid point: 5574.50 2024 VPOC: 5441.75 2024 Value Area High: 5844.25 2024 High: 6184.50 Fib Extensions Target 1: 6388 Fib Extension Target 2: 6514.25 Fib Extension Target 3: 6590.75 Fib Extension Target 4: 6695.50 Big Picture BTC Futures: Key Levels: 2024 High: 108,960 2024 Mid point: 77,865 2024 VPOC: 69,710 2024 Value Area High: 79,525 Key Support for Bulls: 78,000 - 76,000 Big Picture CL Futures: Key Levels: Composite Value Area High: 79.65 2024 Value Area High: 74.90 2024 Mid point: 72.14 2024 VPOC: 69.70 2024 Value Area Low: 66.70 Composite Value Area Low: 63.55 We await the start of the new year to further gauge short term price action, volume and ranges for the upcoming year! Happy trading from EdgeClear! We wish you all a great 2025! Disclaimer: The views expressed are opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
ES Weekly Trading Plan: Balancing Market Strategy 12/29 🚨Trading Plan: Balancing Market Strategy with Failure Scenarios 🚨 Market Context The market is currently in a balancing phase, with defined extremes of the balance zone at 6164 (high) and 5898 (low). Our approach will focus on trading around the midpoint and targeting key levels, while remaining aware of potential failure scenarios where the market tests beyond the extremes but fails to sustain momentum. Key Levels Balance Zone High: 6164 Balance Zone Low: 5898 Midpoint (Pivot): 6031 🎯 Upside Targets: 6072 6108 6144 📉 Downside Targets: 5999 5964 5928 🧑‍💼 Strategy Overview Objective: Trade within the balancing market, utilizing the midpoint as a pivot for directional bias, while also preparing for failure scenarios at the balance zone extremes. Risk Management: Place stops just outside the balance zone extremes to avoid being caught in a breakout trap. Execution Plan: Follow a systematic entry and exit plan based on price action near key levels, with heightened focus on failure scenarios at the extremes. Trade Execution Plan Pivot Zone: 6031 If price holds above 6031: Look for long opportunities targeting upside levels. If price breaks and holds below 6031: Look for short opportunities targeting downside levels. Upside Trade Setup: Entry: Enter long positions near 6031 on confirmation of support (e.g., strong buying momentum, bullish candlestick patterns). Targets: 6072 → 6108 → 6144 → Stop Loss: Place stops just below 5999 to protect capital. Downside Trade Setup: Entry: Enter short positions near 6031 on confirmation of resistance (e.g., strong selling momentum, bearish candlestick patterns). Targets: 5999 → 5964 → 5928 → Stop Loss: Place stops just above 6072 to protect capital. ⚡ Failure Scenarios Looking Above 6164 and Failing: Scenario: The market breaches 6164, signaling potential breakout buyers, but quickly reverses and re-enters the balance zone. Trade Opportunity: Short the market on confirmation of failure (e.g., rejection candlesticks, increasing sell volume). Targets: 6144 → 6108 → 6072 → Midpoint (6031). Stop Loss: Place stops just above 6164 to avoid prolonged breakout risk. Looking Below 5898 and Failing: Scenario: The market breaches 5898, signaling potential breakout sellers, but quickly reverses and re-enters the balance zone. Trade Opportunity: Long the market on confirmation of failure (e.g., rejection candlesticks, increasing buy volume). Targets: 5928 → 5964 → 5999 → Midpoint (6031). Stop Loss: Place stops just below 5898 to avoid prolonged breakout risk. Fake Breakout from Midpoint (6031): Scenario: The market shows a directional breakout from 6031 but fails to sustain momentum, reversing back into balance. Trade Opportunity: Trade in the direction of the failed breakout, targeting the opposite side of the balance zone. Stop Loss: Place stops just outside the failed breakout level. 💡 Risk Management Position Sizing: Risk no more than 1-2% of account balance per trade. Use tight stops to minimize loss in failure scenarios. Break-Even Adjustments: Move stops to break-even once the first target is hit. 📈 Trade Monitoring Order Flow Analysis: Continuously monitor volume and order flow near extremes and the midpoint for signs of breakout or failure. Market Context Update: Adapt the plan if the market establishes a new range or breaks out of balance. 💰 Exit Plan Take profits incrementally at each target. Exit immediately if the market signals sustained breakout momentum beyond the balance zone extremes. 🔔 Stay disciplined and adapt to the price action! #BalanceZone #MarketStrategy #RiskManagement #SPX
CME_MINI:ES1!
by dhjesus
ES Futures Trade Idea: Santa Rally Expectationswww.tradingview.com The ES futures market has maintained a bullish trajectory in 2024, with few pullbacks along the way. Currently, the futures are consolidating near All-Time Highs, setting the stage for a pivotal week ahead. Key Catalysts to Watch Wednesday, December 18th, 2024 FED Interest Rate Decision Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) FOMC Meeting These events could provide the momentum needed to fuel a potential Santa Claus Rally. However, whether this materializes remains uncertain. Additional Economic Data The economic calendar this week is packed with key data releases, beginning with the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI readings at 8:45 AM CT today. On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on November US Retail Sales, while Thursday, December 19th, 2024, brings a flurry of critical updates, including the Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decisions, Q3 US GDP, initial jobless claims, and November existing home sales. The week concludes on Friday, with the release of the FED’s preferred Core PCE Price Index for November at 7:30 AM CT, offering fresh insights into inflation trends. Key Levels to Watch: Target for Bulls: 6295-6310 Line in Sand (LIS): 6045-6055 R1: 6105-6115 R2: 6145-6155 R3: 6195-6205 S1: 5970-5960 S2: 5855-5835 Key Support S3: 5735-5745 Possible Scenarios Scenario 1: Sustained Bullish Movement and Santa Rally In this bullish case, ES futures break out of the consolidation zone following the FED announcements. This could lead to a year-end rally with prices targeting the Fibonacci extension level at 6312.50, setting the stage for continued gains into Q1 2025. Scenario 2: Santa Rally Followed by Pullback Here, the FED-driven Santa rally kicks off but encounters resistance. After the initial bullish push, the market consolidates into year-end as traders await fresh inflows and sector rotations in January for the next directional move. Both scenarios hinge on key data releases and market reaction to the FED’s guidance. Keep an eye on the Line in the Sand (LIS) at 6045–6055, as it represents a critical level for the ongoing trend. This week’s calendar is packed with high-impact events that could drive volatility and shape the near-term outlook for ES futures. Stay prepared! Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeClear
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 8th—> Sept 13th)Hello Investors! 🌟 September started with a sharp decline as investors pruned risk assets from their portfolios amid concerns over US economic data and rising worries about growth. Let’s break down the key events that influenced the markets this week. 📉 Market Overview: The week opened with a broad sell-off across equities, commodities, and crypto, as US Treasury yields dropped to their lowest levels in more than a year. Disappointing August ISM manufacturing data set the tone for a week of worse-than-expected economic readings, stoking fears that the elusive “soft landing” may be slipping further away. US equities gave back all the gains made in the second half of August, with much of the selling attributed to multiple compression, particularly in technology stocks. Nvidia was the most prominent example, with its stock falling ~25% from its earnings peak amid historic daily declines in market cap. The S&P 500 faced resistance near the 5,600 level, struggling above 20x next year’s earnings. By the end of the week, the S&P lost 4.2%, the Dow dropped 2.9%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 5.8%, marking the tech index’s worst decline since November 2022. Stock Market Performance: 📉 S&P 500: Down by 4.2% 📉 Dow Jones: Down by 2.9% 📉 NASDAQ: Down by 5.8% Economic Indicators: WTI Crude Oil: Prices slid to their lowest levels since June 2023, prompting OPEC+ to extend its 2.2M bpd voluntary production cuts through November. Bank of Canada: Cut rates by 25 basis points in a move to boost economic growth, while PM Trudeau faced political challenges after losing support from a key coalition partner. JOLTS Jobs Data: Missed estimates significantly, falling below 8M job openings for just the second time this year. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers dropped below a key Fed gauge, reinforcing the case for rate cuts. ADP Employment Report: Hit a three-year low, showing declining pay growth for those who didn’t change jobs, adding to concerns about labor market weakness. Fed’s Beige Book: Revealed flat or declining economic activity in nine out of twelve districts, suggesting economic sluggishness that could influence the Fed’s next moves. August Jobs Report: Showed further labor market deceleration, with downward revisions to June and July payrolls. The report kept the door open for more aggressive Fed action, with FOMC officials signaling that at least 50 basis points will be debated at the September 18th meeting. Treasury and FX Markets: Yield Curve: Continued to normalize as the US 2-year yield traded 4 basis points below the 10-year rate. Futures Markets: Priced in over 100 bps of cuts by the end of 2024 and ~225 bps by September 2025. Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate: Traded close to its August lows, while the VIX volatility index rose above 23 but remained below early August highs. Corporate News: Docusign: Posted strong quarterly results and guidance, getting back on track after struggles during the post-pandemic period. Hewlett Packard Enterprises: Delivered respectable earnings but saw shares fall, as investors were unimpressed with guidance. Broadcom: Reported an uninspiring Q3, leaving investors with more questions about the pace of AI growth, contributing to broader tech sector pressure. Nvidia: There was speculation that NVDA had received a subpoena from the DOJ, but this turned out to be false news. While they are under investigation, no formal subpoena has been served yet. M&A News: Nippon Steel’s Acquisition of US Steel: Faces challenges as reports suggest the Biden Administration may block the deal on national security grounds. Verizon: Agreed to acquire Frontier Communications for $9.6B, expanding its fiber network and positioning itself for future growth.
TVC:DXY
by WallSt007