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Esfutures

SPX /ES Volatility 02 June 2022 SPX /ES Volatility 02 June 2022 The current percentile of SPX /ES is around 71.83%. The current implied volatility is around 26.05 -> which translates into a daily movement of 1.64% At the same time, this translates in an aproximate +-67$ movement For this we can assume close to 85% probability of efficiency based on the last years data. Based on this our channel for today is going to be, assuming the opening price is 4100 TOP 4100 + 65 ~= 4165 BOT 4100 - 65 ~= 4035 This strategy is perfectly suited for an iron condor At the same for those that are looking for entry points in case they want to go long call/put or a reverse iron condor, instead of normal iron condor we can make use of next data: Based on the last years, we can expect that the asset is going to move more than 0.41% which translates into a +- 20$ movements. And this comes with a 75-80% probability based on the last years. TOP 4100 + 20 ~= 4120=> as an entry point for long where we can use the opening price as a stop loss BOT 4100 - 20 ~= 4080 => as an entry point for short where we can use the opening price as a stop loss
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
ES - Bears are showing up again Price tried to break the key resistance 4390 today and failed. 4340 was seemed to hold *barely* below 4330, 4270 is likely to get tested again. this zone has held up thrice since Feb 27, so weak support. below we go stright to 4200. still time, but bull case is not so upbeat right now. Be careful adding longs. countertrade - if 4270 holds, it should be on some news - which should start a squeeze that could push price all the way up to 4450. (ONLY IF)
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by CheelooTrader
Breaking down where the stock market is goingLooking at the daily chart on the ES futures contract (S&P) Today was a big day with price pulling up and holding the lows form Feb 24. The market has been on a crazy bull run since March 2009 so seeing this pullback is no surprise really, in fact I am surprised it didn't come earlier. Of course there was the pretty short-term collapse in 2020 but then the strong reversal we see in the chart here. 4800 was the highs and now resistance, along with 4700. You can see on Jan 18th price breaking down from the trendline and really confirming a trend change. For the bulls it is very important what happened today but we will need to see price taking out the 4300 and 4400 walls for me to be confident that the market is turning bullish again. Last week we saw a similar move only to see price pullback again. The key though is holding that Feb 24th low. Let's see if price is above 4300 by the end of this week.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Dancharles
$SPY and $ES_F I try my best to stay away from "call-out" type posts because that's not really what I'm about. That being said, I'm doing one today in conjunction with an educational post because they fit together pretty well. Note: on the main chart I'm submitting with this, the topmost moving average (where price is resting as I write this) is the 200HMA using daily candles. The bottommost moving average is the 200HMA using monthly candles. SHORT VERSION The short version is that I'm looking for a short entry on CME_MINI:ES1! and/or AMEX:SPY . THE LONG VERSION In roughly the past 10 years, ES futures and SPY have fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly candle a handful of times. My data plan on TradingView I guess doesn't give me far enough data to show it, but on my other charting platform you can see that as far back as 2011 almost every single time ES has fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly it has been caught by the 200HMA on the monthly. 100% of the time that price has fallen below the 200HMA on the weekly it has resulted in a sustained period of volatility. Currently, ES has not breached this sufficiently but it looks to be close. What I'm looking for as confirmation before entering is: the weekly candle for the week of 1/23/2022 opens below the 200HMA on the weekly candle daily volume on ES has not fallen below 1.2mn (click the related idea for my overview of using volume to help time when the bottom may be in) If this criteria is met, I'm going short on ES selling short contracts but also buying puts on SPY as well. While you don't want to buy calls as a way to "buy the dip" due to the impact of elevated TVC:VIX after a sell-off, you may want to buy puts if you are expecting a sell-off due to the impact that an exploding VIX will have on your options premiums. To be clear, I am not calling for some catastrophic market crash. I'm calling for a technical correction to a regularly established baseline that's all. PT 1 for me would be 4100. PT 2 for me would be 3400. For context 1 contract for CME_MINI:MES1! (the little brother to ES) nets you $5 per point. If I were to enter at 4400 then by PT 1 (if I'm right), that results in $1500/contract excluding fees. CLARIFYING STATEMENTS This is a play I'm entering with or without posting this. If you decide to follow along, you're making a conscious decision of your own. If you decide to enter and this fails, you will get no sympathy from me, I will award you no points, and my God have mercy on your soul.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SwingTradeAssassin
2
#ES_F 2.04.22 Overview and levels to watch.Globex inventory is short, we have NFP coming up at 830am and where can we go today? Well all the buying that we had from Jan 28th low was short coverings and bigger players selling their position. We failed to extend into previous daily range for now and now have a few options where we can head. On the downside we have 4465.25-4460.25 as our PM support which is broken will be our first sign of weakness, below we have 4447.25-4445, 4437.75-4432.50 and our KEY Intraday support at 4424.50-4418.75, we should see buyers on the first tests of those areas unless we are going down on big volume and if we are then we have 4405.25-4403, 4392.25-4389.75 and 4378.50-4374.75 as our lower levels. On the upside we have 4490-4487.25 as PM resistance we would need to break and hold above to see tests of 4508.75-4505.50 and our Key Intraday resistance at 4524.25-4519 which we need to break above and hold if we want to see the upside to 4536.75-4532.50, 4551.25-4548.75 and 4570 area. Its Friday on a low volume beginning of the month week with big ranges so anything can happen but manage expectations and don't expect huge moves just trade level to level until we see signs of change.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
!ES_F 2.02.22 Overview and levels to watchSlow grinding globex action leaves us with inventory 100% long today. What can we see today in RTH? On a bigger time frame we flushed down our inventory over 4620 and now we are almost back to the location of the break down on Jan 18. Question is did we really clean up all that trapped supply in such a short time, have no more supply for sale and clear to go up or will we find a seller today at the levels we did before since not everyone sells at the same time. Our levels to watch for the day are 4570-4562.50 as PM support if we break and hold below that is our first signs of weakness under there we have 4551.25-4548.75, 4536.75-4532.50 and our Key intraday support at 4524.25-4519 which if broken then this whole move was just short covering and we can see more downside. On the upside we have 4589.50-4584.75, 4603.25-4598.75 and our Key resistance at 4623.25-4614.50 we do expect sellers there. We have made some big moves last few weeks and the action has slowed down to a grind so it will be tricky to trade and have to manage expectations. If we do break and hold over our key resistance that would be a bullish confirm and we can see higher levels of 4636.50-4632.25 and 4650.50-4646.25 where we do expect to see sellers.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F 2.01.22 Overview and levels to watchAfter exciting month end yesterday, what can we see today? Overnight inventory is currently long over the close and over out 4480 level. Today we want to see if we will continue our strength, retest and hold lower levels or find temporary balance? On the down side we have PM support at 4490-4487.25 if we get under and hold, that will be our first sign of weakness. Under we have 4479.75-4475 as our Key support and if broken we can see 4465.25-4460.25, 4447.25-4445, 4437.75-4432.50 and if selling is strong can test 4424.50 area. On the upside, holding above PM support shows strength and can test 4524.25-4519.50 and we can break and hold over that can see 4536.75-4532.50, 4551.25-4548.75 and maybe 4571.75-4563.75 those are the bigger areas to hit on the upside and should see sellers up there. We made some big moves and now waiting to see what this month will bring. Was the buying real or just short covering and we will head lower this month? Lets see what they have for us.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
When Trends Emerge... Embrace Them!The price of any asset is always the correct price because it is the level where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent environment, the marketplace. A price trend is the most accurate reflection of the market’s sentiment. When buyers are more aggressive, prices rise, and when sellers overwhelm buyers, prices decline. The stock market trend reversed The S&P 500 is the leading stock market index The trend bent Ride the wave until the technical position changes Never try to pick a top or bottom; the market’s sentiment will tell you all you need to know In his 2004 book, The Wisdom of Crowds, author James Surowiecki used case studies to prove that “the many are smarter than the few, and how collective wisdom shapes business, economies, societies, and nations.” A price trend embodies Surowiecki’s work, and that is why the trend is always a trader or investor’s best friend. When I first began my trading career in the early 1980s, my mentors taught me never to “fight the tape.” They were old-school traders who learned their craft in the days when stock prices were printed on a ticker tape. Fighting the tape is going against the trend. When the path of least resistance of a market changes from bullish to bearish or vice versa, it is a signal to take profits, losses, and reverse a risk position. The most successful trend-following traders and investors ride trends until they bend, aiming to take the most significant percentage of profits from a bullish or bearish price pattern. There can be plenty of false signals that lead to choppy results but catching a significant trend and riding it like a surfer rides a wave can be gratifying and highly profitable. The recent price action in the US stock market points to a significant trend change from bullish to bearish. The stock market trend reversed After reaching a record high of 4,808.25 on January 4, the March E-Mini S&P 500 futures contract ran out of upside steam, reversed, and has made lower highs and lower lows. The chart highlights the decline to the most recent low of 4,212.75 on January 24, a 12.4% decline in only twenty days. The futures contract was around the 4,420 level at the end of last week, closer to the recent low than the early January high. The Fed’s more hawkish approach to monetary policy has weighed on the stock market as stocks compete with bonds for capital. Moreover, the geopolitical landscape has likely caused selling as tensions between the US and Russia have risen to a post-Cold War high. The S&P 500 is the leading stock market index The S&P 500 is the most diversified stock market indicator and the bellwether for monitoring the overall equities asset class. While the recent selloff may appear as another speed bump, a close below the 4,495.12 level on January 31 would put in a bearish key reversal trading pattern on the monthly S&P 500 chart. A bearish reversal in Bitcoin and Ethereum on November 10 led to a price implosion in the cryptocurrency arena that took prices over 50% lower at the most recent lows last week. The S&P 500 closed more than 60 points below the critical level on January 28. The trend bent Trends reflect market sentiment. As we move into 2022’s second month, the stock market looks more than shaky. Higher interest rates, geopolitical problems, COVID-19 variants, rising inflation, supply chain bottlenecks, the potential for rising US corporate and individual tax rates, and other issues have caused selling to emerge in the equities market. There have been plenty of false signals in the stock market over the years. However, when corrections occur, they can be brutal. The last substantial correction took the S&P 500 from 3,393.52 in February 2020 to a low of 2,191.86 in March 2020 as the worldwide pandemic gripped markets. The 35.4% drop from one month to the next was a reminder that when the trend bends, it is best to follow the sentiment. The cost of trend-following is choppy results when markets display false breakdowns or recoveries. When trends emerge, the profits can more than compensate for short-term losses. The bullish trend in the US stock market bent in early 2022 and is now bearish at the end of January. Ride the wave until the technical position changes Trend-following is like surfing. It can take a long time to paddle around through small waves until a substantial one appears on the scene. Surfers look to ride the wave when it arrives. The S&P 500 has already dropped by over 12% in January, and a bearish reversal at the end of January could cause even more follow-through selling. Daily price volatility has increased, and rallies during a bearish trend can be particularly nasty for those holding short risk positions; thus, the term “rip your face off rally.” The critical factor in trend following is to begin riding the wave early so that you can stomach the ups and downs that naturally occur as the market gyrates between higher and lower prices on an intra-day and even intra-week basis. Those gyrations can cause the emotional impulses that cause many traders and investors to lose money or minimize profits. For trend-followers with the fortitude to suppress emotions, riding the bullish or bearish wave until it changes direction is the formula that separates winners from losers over time. Never try to pick a top or bottom; the market’s sentiment will tell you all you need to know Our emotions want us to be correct, and the emotional impulses are more concerned with calling a direction than profiting from the market. It is virtually impossible to call bottoms or tops in markets consistently, and successful trend-followers tend to be long at the top and short at the bottom. While this may seem counter-intuitive, it is the critical factor for profitability. Sentiment is a powerful force that often ignores news, expert fundamental analysis, and all other noise that surrounds markets each day. Sentiment creates price trends that indicate the path of least resistance of prices. Picking tops or bottoms denies physics that teaches a body in motion tends to stay in motion. In finance, the trend is your friend until it bends is the same construct. As of the end of last week, the trend in the stock market was bearish, and we will ride the wave until the market sentiment tells us it is time to ride another in the opposite direction. We are constantly long or short the highly liquid markets we trade, and we may get chopped up when sentiment is confused and provides false signals. However, we are always positioned to participate when the big moves come. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
SP:SPXShort
by Andy_Hecht
1
ES_F 1.28 Range overview and possible destinations to look for Globex inventory is short today and we are waiting to see what will RTH bring us. We have 4 days of trading and inventory trapped between 4270-4380 with no upside. Every position that was built down at the lows has been taken up, sold and then price drops because there is more supply coming down, trading is all about the supply because demand is created. If there is supply after all the buy orders are filled the price goes down and right now we have a lot of supply still. Its month end so games will be played but levels we are watching today are 4272-4265 as Key Support if we break and hold under can see 4252.50-4247.50, 4234.75-4229.25, 4220-4215.75 and if we get further extension and sell off can see 4190 - 4170 - 4140, On the upside we have 4327.25-4321.50 as our Key resistance if we break and hold over can see 4349.50-4345.25, 4362.75-4359.50 and 4378.50-4374.75 But keep in mind that we have supply and can just play level to level but better entry locations are at Key levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Stock Market at Critical LevelThe AMEX:SPY and S&P Index futures are at a key Support Level going into today FOMO Meeting. November ended with much Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) that the -5% pullback was finally the correction territory everyone has been awaiting since the start of 2021... (also since 2020, also since 2008) Instead, price made a run for the All Time High but fell short. At this point I am watching to see if it was a true failure to break. The best way to know is whether or not price holds this 50% Retracement Level of the December rally. Should the Support hold I would be watching for the Santa Claus rally to continue. We could still post a new ATH for 2021. Should the Support break it would be evidence of a failure to make a new All Time High for the month of December and be the Combobreaker for 2021 (every other month in 2021 posted a new ATH). Failures to break All Time Highs are a common bearish pattern. On a narrative note... now is the time of year for reflection, rebalancing, and tax consideration. Overall it has been a good year for a lot of traders and investors myself included. I am sure everyone to some extent is making moves relative to their yearly performance during this time. If I had to explain a "reason" for this month's price action it would not be the Fed so much as the end of a very bullish year for the stock market.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by norok
4
S&P Futures Rallying with Resistance OverheadThe S&P put in a Gravestone Doji for the month of November, similar to January of 2020. The month of November closed with heavy selling during and after Black Friday. In my opinion, the recent S&P rally is very unhealthy and reminiscent of the January/February 2020 price action. In January 2020 we had a similar Gravestone Doji with markets rallying to new ATH's in early February then finishing much lower for the month. The heaviest selling was yet to come in February and March. Obviously, we have different circumstances today however we do still have tail risk. The November 2021 selling was due to something very common in trading. Where price drifts below a long term ascending wedge, with a brief selloff, then runs up alongside it. On November 5th price touched the March 2020 ascending wedge resistance only to roll over and selloff after Thanksgiving. ES_F is doing just that, running back up to the same trend line resistance we sold off from in November. Apple has been carrying the S&P and I believe much of the December rally is due to a short squeeze and that when we meet that resistance level overhead, it could erase the gains we have seen this month and December could actually close bearish, leading to heavier selling in January. The VIX likes to close all gaps and the recent VIX gap down was left open up to 27. I think this is a short term squeeze that has the appearance of a Santa rally with a lot left to be proven. HYG has been constructive so far this week but I am not sold that this is the beginning of a new risk on cycle and believe we have a lot left to prove to close out the month. Time will tell.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CoteInvestments