Island Gap Potential, Dark Pool Buy Zone, HFTsThis stock has the potential to form an island gap, which are caused by High Frequency Trading activity that triggers on news. The gap down was too huge, so fundamentals are above the current price. This would be a gap UP potential at this point, to create the island gap.
The lows have been established clearly, so selling short this stock is not wise. But smaller funds and retail may try, as they tend to sell short stocks within a Dark Pool buy zone. Chaikin Osc and Money Flow Index are moving upward but the angle of ascent on price is steeper. The faster price ascent could be rapid accumulation from derivative developers.
UIPath creates software for Robotic Process Automation. It was one of the stocks discussed in the Case Study I did with my students in the summer of 2022 on the disruptive new technologies to watch over the next decade.
ESG
Exxon continues the Energy forever bull marketExxonMobil Corporation (/ˌɛksɒnˈmoʊbəl/ EKS-on-MOH-bəl; commonly shortened to Exxon ) is an American multinational oil and gas corporation and the largest direct descendant of John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil. The company, which took its present name in 1999 per the merger of Exxon and Mobil, is vertically integrated across the entire oil and gas industry, and within it is also a chemicals division which produces plastic, synthetic rubber, and other chemical products. ExxonMobil is headquartered near the Houston suburb of Spring, Texas, though officially incorporated in the U.S. state of New Jersey. : 1 It is the largest United States-based oil and gas producing company. ExxonMobil is also the eighth largest company in the world by revenue and the third largest in the US.
DEVVE Awaiting breakout to double digitsDevve, a layer 1 blockchain with 8m tps focused on ESG just launched and currently sits at a 15M market cap. It has has a French license and perfectly fits the institutional cycle we're in. Check their official website for more info.
Breakout is near with testnet launch in March. Already above downwards sloping resistance. A break of $1.50 would lead us towards ATH, which after retest would lead us towards $10. Current supply is only 20M coins.
If you read this during Feb/March 2024, you're early.
$ORGN Long Play. C02 Tax Credit PlayPotential Opportunity regarding the new Carbon Credit ESG Tax benefits.
As most of you probably know, new tax regulations are being rolled out that incentivize carbon emission neutrality and many companies are jumping on the opportunity. (See Jpmorgan Purchasing massive swathes of timber forest land)
Origin is the world's leading carbon negative materials company. Our mission is to enable the world’s transition to sustainable materials. Therefore this offers a unique opportunity to be able to cash in on the benefits of these new tax credits without breaking the bank by buying forest land.
Current Target Projections are listed in the illustration. I am keeping a fairly tight stop loss but this isn't necessary if you plan on holding longer term.
Bullish Scenario MPLXMPLX Price Targets :
$38.89
$39.91
$45.24
MPLX LP Overview:
MPLX LP is a diversified, large-cap master limited partnership formed by Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC). The company owns and operates a wide range of midstream energy infrastructure and logistics assets, in addition to providing fuels distribution services. MPLX's asset portfolio is extensive and includes:
Crude Oil and Refined Product Pipelines: MPLX manages a network of pipelines designed for the transportation of both crude oil and refined petroleum products. These pipelines play a vital role in the distribution of energy resources.
Inland Marine Business: The company is involved in an inland marine business, which likely includes the transportation of energy-related products via inland waterways.
Light-Product Terminals: MPLX owns terminals specifically for handling light petroleum products.
Storage Caverns and Tanks: The company has storage facilities, including caverns, refinery tanks, docks, loading racks, and associated piping for storing energy products.
Crude Oil and Light-Product Marine Terminals: These are terminals used for the efficient transfer of crude oil and light petroleum products.
Gathering Systems and Pipelines: MPLX owns and operates gathering systems and pipelines for both crude oil and natural gas.
Natural Gas and NGL Processing: The company is involved in the processing and fractionation of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) in key U.S. supply basins.
MPLX's business model encompasses various aspects of the midstream energy sector, with a focus on transportation, storage, and processing of energy products. Please note that the status and details of companies can change over time, so for the most current information about MPLX LP, it's advisable to refer to the company's official documents and reports.
Lucid Motors - As For Me, I Like The StockThe first thing I want to remind you of is that you should buy stocks when they're low, down, and red. Stop buying things when they're green and up bigly because you "see confirmation."
If you can't let go of this attachment to only believing in what you can see and not believing until you're shown, then the Bible story of Doubting Thomas is really something to give a read.
So about Lucid Motors: As for me, I like the stock.
Here's some reality:
1. Electric cars are a real thing now
2. Tesla needs competition
3. Luxury electric cars from BMW et. al. kind of suck and there's no real demand for them
4. Lucid has cars on the road and even The Wall Street Journal gave them a thinly veiled advertorial after the Saudis infused some blood
Also, although Lucid will soon be expanding into the China market, as of now there is no manufacturing in Mainland China.
This gives Lucid significant benefits in the not-being-subject-to geopolitical risk like Tesla with its Shanghai Gigafactory located in Babylon is.
Because one day in our lifetimes, I believe Xi Jinping will throw away the Chinese Communist Party like Gorbachev did in the 90s and everything will change because the persecution against Falun Gong launched by former Chairman Jiang Zemin (it's dead now) will be totally exposed and much of the world will be implicated.
This will make life very hard for everyone who's been soliciting Shanghai (Babylon).
Moreover, right now, Lucid makes cars in Arizona and in Saudi Arabia. With the 2024 Presidential Election looming, a Donald Trump win would be huge for any "Made In America" company.
I'm not a huge fan of Trump, personally, but I think you should throw political bias away when it comes to analyzing the markets and figuring out how to invest your money/trade.
The financials for Lucid appear to indicate that spending and R&D is up. This is actually a good thing, because it's very, very hard and takes many, many years for a car manufacturer to be able to get roots down in society and become a household name.
It's going to be a "spend money to make money" kind of thing for Lucid.
Anyways, the raid on the all time lows after the Saudi announcement is a good thing.
You need to look at things backwards. Down is good if you want to buy. Up is good if you want to sell.
The last week's action is definitely bullish and you should be thinking of how to get long on a pullback.
The problem is, where can Lucid go?
At $7 it's already worth $14 billion mcap.
And unfortunately for everyone who WaNtS tO SeE a MoASsSsSSss the reality of getting one is you had a few minutes to sell the top and now the chart is a mess.
On the monthly and weekly
We can see that a healthy company would return to the $30 range.
But with that stupid MOASS candle blocking the way you really may not get anything better than $10.
I think the bear case if this is to go to $0 like MULN or some other dumpster fire coin is $15
All and all, if you go long here, can diamond hand a bit, and sell at $10 or $15, what exactly are you sad about?
Put the FUD aside and all the yammering about "the fundamentals" and ask yourself if you really want to sit on the sidelines here and watch this thing do what IONQ has done until you "see confirmation" like Doubting Thomas saw his Master's spear wound after Lord Yahweh's Resurrection.
Ultimately, I think we're going to see a pullback into the opening of July, but we need to see July rip over $8.50 for this to really be a long.
But if you want for it to do that you might wake up to find $11 and it's already too late for regrets.
Don't leave yourself with regrets.
Use faith.
BTC Long, Market Shift? Volatility expectedMinor update to the previous idea.
BlackRock BTC Trust could change things, makes me wonder if they change their mind on whether it's ESG compliant.
This trade is more of a double-edged sword that is more profitable in longing for volatility rather than direction considering market forces at the moment. Expect at least a +- 20% price swing. Either we break through the first resistance band of 27k-32k and continue forward with a close above 26k today, or we drop to close the previous gap from 21.8k -20.8k with a close never reaching over 27.4k.
For now, we are at risk of seeing 20k considering current prices are under 27.4k and the sp500 being this overbought in the short term that could drag btc with it if a bull trap is in place in tradFi (not confirmed yet, mean rev. signals won't work). Overall, I'm bullish on BTC short term (possible that it could make a run up before sp500 contracts), and still remain bearish on SP500 long term (might switch to neutral if the west releases dependence on its manufacturing base toward China/the east, and innovation continues in the tech sector). Altcoins might not be able to catch up with BTC on the upswing, but most likely on the downswing if it so happens.
Trades:
Long #1
Entry: 26k
SL: 24k
TP: 34.5k, 40k
Long #2
Entry:20k
SL:18k
TP: 34k, 40k
Short
Entry: 26k
SL: 29k
TP:22k, 21k, 19k
Schneider (SU.pa) bullish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart in the French company Schneider Electric (SU.pa). Schneider Electric SE is a French multinational company that specializes in digital automation and energy management. It addresses homes, buildings, data centers, infrastructure and industries, by combining energy technologies, real-time automation, software, and services. The Triangle broke through the resistance line on 19/04/2023. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 9 days towards 155.86 EUR. According to experts, your stop-loss order should be placed at 141.38 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
Schneider Electric S.E. (SU.PA)’s target to achieve net-zero operational emissions and to reduce Scope 3 emissions by 35% by 2030 (compared to Scope 3 emissions in 2017) was validated by the SBTi in 2019.
Schneider's EcoStruxure solutions assisted customers in reducing carbon emissions by 84 million tonnes in 2021, totaling 347 million tonnes saved or avoided since 2018. Moreover, since launching The Zero Carbon Project in April 2021, Schneider Electric S.E. (SU.PA) has been working closely with 1,000 of its top suppliers to reduce operational carbon emissions by half by 2025.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals and cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Rev Your Engines: Why BMW is Poised to Dominate the Electric CarAlright folks! Today we're going to talk about a company that you might have heard of before, but maybe not in the way I'm about to present it. I'm talking about Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, or as most people know it, BMW.
Now, BMW has been around for a long time. They've been making cars since 1916, and in that time they've built a reputation for producing high-quality, luxury vehicles. But there's more to BMW than just luxury cars. They've also been at the forefront of innovation, particularly when it comes to electric vehicles and self-driving technology.
Now, I know what you're thinking. "Joe, I don't care about electric cars, I want to make money!" Well, let me tell you, investing in BMW is a smart move for a few reasons.
First of all, the company is a leader in the luxury car market, which is a highly profitable niche. They have a strong brand that's synonymous with quality and prestige, and they've consistently delivered on that promise. That means that they're able to charge premium prices for their vehicles, which translates into higher profit margins.
But it's not just about luxury cars. BMW has also been investing heavily in electric vehicles and self-driving technology, and they're making real progress in these areas. Their i3 electric car is one of the best-selling EVs in Europe, and they're set to release several new electric models in the coming years. And when it comes to self-driving technology, BMW has partnered with Intel and Mobileye to develop the technology that will power their upcoming iNext vehicle.
And here's the thing. Electric vehicles and self-driving cars are the future of the automotive industry. As governments around the world look to reduce carbon emissions and improve road safety, these technologies are going to become increasingly important. That means that BMW is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends and stay ahead of the competition.
So, to sum it up, investing in BMW is a smart move. They're a leader in the luxury car market, they're making real progress in the electric and self-driving space, and they have a strong brand that's built on a history of quality and innovation. If you're looking for a company that's poised for growth in the coming years, BMW seems like a great bet.
Alantra is Leading the Charge in Sustainable FinanceAlright folks, let's talk about Alantra, the Spanish financial company that's making some big moves in the sustainability and energy sectors.
They recently made some key hires that really demonstrate their commitment to these areas. They brought on Francois de Rugy, a former French politician who's an expert in environmental, social, and governance issues. He's going to be a senior advisor, bringing his knowledge and experience from serving as Minister of Ecology, Sustainable Development, and Energy in the French government.
And that's not all. Alantra also hired Nemesio Fernandez-Cuesta, a former Spanish energy secretary, to serve as a senior advisor on energy-related transactions. This guy knows his stuff when it comes to the energy sector, having previously served as Secretary of State for Energy in Spain.
These hires show that Alantra is serious about sustainability and energy, and they've got more than 65 staff working in these areas, including ESG analysts, impact investment professionals, and sustainability consultants. They're well-positioned to take advantage of the growing demand for sustainable and impact investments, and they've got a diversified business model that includes asset management, investment banking, and wealth management.
Overall, if you're looking for a company that's making moves in the sustainability and energy sectors, you might want to keep an eye on Alantra. They've got some serious expertise and a strong market position in Spain and Latin America, and they're well-positioned to capitalize on long-term growth trends in the financial services industry.
Tesla - What's next?Tesla Bulls have partied in January...will the party continue?
A measured move into resistance, is now going to test the resolve of the bulls. Will the bears over power Tesla as the yields spike or will Elon announce a Twitter CEO that pumps the stock?
Tune into to our streams to see how we will trade TSLA.
Will NVDA continue its strong growth?NASDAQ:NVDA
About Nvidia
Nvidia is a technology company that designs and manufactures graphics processing units (GPUs) and other technology for the gaming and professional markets. The company's products are used in a wide range of applications, including gaming, data centers, artificial intelligence, and autonomous vehicles.
Technical Analysis and review of key indicators
In terms of technical analysis, one important metric to consider is the stock's performance relative to the overall market. Nvidia has performed well in recent years, with its stock price significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index. Additionally, the stock has consistently traded above its 200-day moving average, which is often used as a measure of long-term trend.
Another key metric to consider is the company's financial performance. Nvidia has seen strong growth in recent years, with revenue increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% from 2016 to 2020. The company has also seen growth in its net income, with a CAGR of 26% over the same period. This strong financial performance has been driven by a combination of factors, including increased demand for Nvidia's products in the gaming market and the growing use of GPUs in data centers and artificial intelligence.
Looking at the valuation side, Nvidia's forward P/E ratio is currently at around 46x, which is high compared to the industry average. This suggests that the market may be pricing in high growth expectations for the company in the future. However, the company's PEG ratio of 1.6 is still in the reasonable range which means the stock is not overpriced.
In terms of technical indicators, the stock currently has a relative strength index (RSI) of around 72, which indicates that the stock may be overbought in the short-term. Traders and investors should also pay attention to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, which currently shows a bullish trend.
Will NVDA continue continue its strong growth?
Overall, Nvidia has performed well in recent years and has a solid financial track record. The company's strong growth in revenue and net income, coupled with its position in the gaming market and the growing use of GPUs in data centers and artificial intelligence, suggest that it could continue to perform well in the future. However, it is important to note that the technology industry is highly competitive and rapidly changing, so it is important to monitor the company's performance and any potential changes in the industry. Additionally, the high valuation of the stock should also be carefully considered before making any investment decisions.
According to TradingView, 24 out of 44 analysts are giving the NVIDIA Corporation a "strong buy" rating with a maximum estimated price at USD 325. The average price estimate is at USD 200.33 which represents a price increase of 2.51% compared to the current stock price (USD 195.43). Two analysts classify the stock as a "strong sell" with a min estimate at USD 110, a decrease by 43.71%.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) is deemed to be one of the companies with the best ESG rating. For more information about ESG and other topics related to sustainable and impact investment, make sure to check out the Education section on our website.
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Disclaimer
Norvestio AS only offers analysis based on analyst estimates and historical data, and our articles are never meant to be taken as financial advice. It doesn’t represent an advice to buy or sell any stock, and it doesn’t take into consideration your goals or financial position.
Will SPWR Break out To New Highs?NASDAQ:SPWR
About SunPower Corporation
American company SunPower sells battery-powered energy storage systems and photovoltaic solar energy producing systems, mostly to residential clients. Richard Swanson, a professor of electrical engineering at Stanford University, created the business in 1985. It has its headquarters in San Jose, California. In 2002, Cypress Semiconductor acquired the majority of the business, and it expanded swiftly until SunPower went public in 2005. For US$1.37 billion in 2011, the French energy and oil giant TotalEnergies acquired a majority stake in SunPower.
Prior to spinning off that division of the business as Maxeon Solar Technologies in 2020, the company developed and manufactured solar panels. Prior to agreeing to sell that business line to TotalEnergies in February 2022, the company has previously sold its goods to commercial and industrial customers.
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More information about sustainable and impact investing can be found in our Education area on our website.
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Will SPWR break out in the next months towards its highs in January 2021?
According to TradingView, at the moment only four analysts rate SunPower shares as a "strong buy" or "buy." Furthermore, only three analysts recommend to sell that stock. Due to the fact that 15 experts recommend holding, it seems clear that retaining the company's stock would be the best choice for investors. However, the current minimum expectation for the stock is USD 16.00 which represents a decline of 13.89% from the current stock price (USD 18.58). The current highest estimate for the stock is USD 32 (+ 72.23%), while the average estimate is USD 22.29 (+ 19.99%).
The predicted EPS for Q4-2022 may increase by 0.03 to 0.16 from the reported 0.13 in the previous quarter. Analysts predict that the EPS will increase annually by 0.22 from reported 0.07 in 2021 to an estimated 0.29 in 2022 before increasing again in 2023 to 0.62.
According to predictions, SPWR's revenue may have increased by 31.30% from the reported $1.31B (2021) to $1.72B in 2022. Due to the ongoing high demand for solar panels and battery-powered energy storage systems, the outlook for SunPower's revenue looks positive and could increase to approximately $2.84B in 2025.
SunPower may have a promising future if those forecasts come true.
Update on my previous copper ideasDespite Copper falling 38% from its ATHs, we still haven't seen deflation, even though inflation seems to have peaked for now. The inflation story doesn't seem to be over; even inflation moderates and goes close to or below 2%. The big problem right now is that the Copper inventories are extremely low and that the demand for Copper seems to be increasing because of all the green technologies that are being developed. Therefore despite the high-interest rates and the drop in the money supply globally (reduction in overall liquidity, along with a strong dollar), it is possible to see Copper rally higher from here. With the recent drop in the dollar and the potential peak in the USD and short-term interest rates, the market may have bottomed.
Of course, this isn't the only reason the market has bottomed. Copper fell a lot, and it hit critical support. They seem to have bottomed at their previous significant highs along with Silver and reversed the upside. I don't think the final bottom is in, although it could be. In my opinion, the market is heading towards 4$ in the short term. Still, in a long time, it is directed towards 2.7$, and maybe even towards 1.6-1.9$ if we get the short-term deflationary collapse, I expect. After the failure, I think new ATHs will come, as Central Banks and Governments globally will print insane amounts of money to save their economies from collapsing.
SolarEdge Holds Support After Gapping DownSolar stocks have outperformed lately as investors react to high oil prices and the green-energy movement. Today we’re looking at SolarEdge Technologies , the No. 2 company in the group by market cap behind Enphase Energy .
The main pattern on the chart is the falling trendline that began in November and ran along the highs of April and most of July. SEDG ripped through that resistance on July 27 as lawmakers advanced key legislation supporting the sector.
Earnings subsequently missed on August 2. That caused the stock to gap lower, but it managed to remain above the previous trendline. Has old resistance become new support?
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) just rose above the 200-day SMA: a potentially bullish “golden cross” pattern.
Next, consider the sequentially higher lows since January – unlike the broader market’s steady decline through mid-June. Finally, notice how the relative strength index (RSI) has remained mostly above its midline at 50. Both of those patterns could reflect buyers outnumbering sellers.
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SQM: Chilean Lithium Stock Nears Triple DigitsSociedad Quimica y Minera is a Chilean fertilizer company reinventing itself as a lithium provider. Today we’re looking at some potentially bullish patterns as it squeezes back toward triple digits.
First are the pair of strong earnings reports on March 2 and May 19. The initial headline lifted SQM above its previous all-time high from July 2011. The second one helped propel the stock past $100, where it stalled and pulled back in June.
However it didn’t pull back much. Price stabilized near the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) in mid-July and returned above $99. It then took a small breather, which was quickly met with buyers stepping in to defend the 50-day SMA.
Next you have the trendline along the May peak and the recent highs. SQM is currently challenging that resistance.
Finally, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained above the 21-day EMA since late July. That, plus the rising MACD, may suggest the shorter-term trend is turning more bullish.
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Important Information
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. You Can Trade, Inc. is also a wholly owned subsidiary of TradeStation Group, Inc., operating under its own brand and trademarks. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
TSLA 2021 fractal points to a 540 to 800 range for 3Q2022Don’t expect TSLA to break above 800 in the very short future. If we take the May 2021 yellow box fractal as a guide, the volatility range this 3Q will be between 540 & 800 or even until Oct or Nov of 2022.
WHY LOOKING BEARISH: Even Elon himself is preparing for a downturn by reducing labor force. On the technical side, since breaking below 800 in early May2022, TSLA has just been pivoting around the 700 zone unable to recover 800 but instead, it is making lower highs & lower lows this whole June.
My M-pattern scenario might still play out with the bottom coming at around 540 or even 420. (I just have a hunch Elon will defend the 542 zone with his illogical TWTR offer price also at 54.20 per share). My maximum pain level of 420 happens to be a 1.618 retracement of the wave B rally. Ending this ABC correction will start wave 5, probably to do a melt-up top before recession kicks in in 2023.
EV may be a shortterm solution for current fuel crisis but the chip shortage & charging infrastructure are still headwinds. The expensive cost of EV & EV batteries is also delaying a migration from gasoline & diesel vehicles.
Not trading advice
Endesa, S.A. (ELE.mc) bearish scenario:The technical figure Channel Up can be found in the Spanish company Endesa, S.A. (ELE.mc) at daily chart. Endesa, S.A. is a Spanish multinational electric utility company, the largest in the country. The firm, a majority-owned subsidiary of the Italian utility company Enel, has 10 million customers in Spain, with domestic annual generation of over 97,600 GWh from nuclear, fossil-fueled, hydroelectric, and renewable resource power plants. Internationally, it serves another 10 million customers and provides over 80,100 GWh annually. The company has additional interests in Spanish natural gas and telecommunications companies. The Channel Up has broken through the support line on 15/06/2022, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 23 days towards 17.745 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 21.060 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
The company presents its results from January to March, in which it registers a 31% decrease in ordinary net profit to €338 million, although if the extraordinary impacts recorded in 2021 were to be excluded this result would increase by 14%.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
SSE - So Simple & Easy - BUY @£1,766REASONS TO BE BULLISH
Technical - Recently broke all-time high from 2007 - 15 yes FIFTEEN years ago!
Technical - Crossed the 50 MA some weeks back and just reclaimed the top of the purple channel. Holding there at support. A great time to reload.
Technical - 50, 100 and 200 MAs all the right way around now, after crossing back in October 2020.
Technical - Back in 2019, we had a double-threshold break. Crossing the 50 MA and entering the RSI bull zone on the same candle - my favourite type of entry. it has already back-tested that move.
Fundamental - Providing a dividend of 4.6% in a stagflationary environment, SSE is not to be sniffed at. 29 years of consistent dividends too!
Fundamental - Furthermore, demand from UK households is not receding from here. Same for sustainable energy & ESG investment.
Fundamental - Price to earnings is reasonable at ~7.6, unlike many other companies on the market.
Fundamental - SSE's standard mix has 55% renewables, with 40% from natural gas. The average UK provider offers 40% renewable, 38% gas and 16% nuclear. They're one of the best in a bad worldwide bunch.
Targets - Initial target would be a 200% move to £3,300. Should the energy really be 'cooking on gas', we may see it reach the £5-10k top channel (in green) after the coming 5 years.
Targets - Any pullback to the 50 EMA is to be bought (~£1,475 and rising).
WHAT COULD BE BEARISH
Fundamental - Sold off on news of a potential windfall tax on oil & gas producers. As of today, I would rate the chances of that passing or affecting SSE as unlikely, despite the political pressure. Even if implemented, it is perhaps more likely to stunt BP and Shell's progress than a "greener" company like SSE.
Fundamental - Businesses like SSE are needed to support households and also shift to a greener future - being one of the biggest investors in green energy in the country. Unless those in charge wish to undo all their promises in recent years, I'd rate the chances of this impacting SSE as low.
Technical - Down nearly 8% for the day and with other more risky assets selling-off, SSE may still stutter (even if downside limited from here).
Technical - Stop loss would be £1,285 which would create a new low and a 27% decline
SUMMARY
Overall, this seems like one of the biggest no-brainer investments out there. Relatively low-risk, relatively high-reward.
Dividend - Check. ESG - Check. Inflation-proof - Check. Value - Check. New ATH - Check.
Absolutely long-term bullish on SSE, although I expect a a few weeks of sideways action to settle on top of the prior all-time high to call it support. Today SSE is a solid purchase and I expect will remain a good time to begin a position, inspite of the market & political risks identified above. Let's keep an eye on this one in the years ahead. Thanks for reading!
NEE - NextEra of ⬇️ Price ActionREMAINING REASONS TO BE BULLISH
Green energy & ESG projects are still top of mind for many investors
We still remain above the 100 week moving average and in the green channel
“Only” trading 26x above earnings
Growing earnings at 8% a year
Paying a modest dividend of ~2%
Not much else I’m afraid…
WHY I’M BEARISH
The weekly RSI has just entered the bull zone
We’re perilously close to crossing below the 100 week moving average and on a declining trajectory
Very much overdue a correction
A normal P/E ratio would be in 15-18 ratio. This would price it back in the $30s.
Much better value stocks in the energy sector, paying much higher dividends.
NEE have traditionally paid as high as 4% yield going back to the early 2000’s, the decline to 1.6% in December 2021 may yet be “beaten” with an even lower yield this time out. This will likely turn away many savvy investors looking for underpriced value.
WHAT I’M DOING
Definitely NOT buying this stock, not even 30% off all-time highs
Will be wanting for the trigger to confirm in order to enter short in the coming days
First target would be $35, with a terminal target of $18 to come back and retest an important level. This would also coincide with the 0.618 fib off the entire 40 year move.
Copper Falls - An OpportunityIn May 2021, the nearby COMEX copper futures contract reached a record $4.8985 per pound. After a correction to just below the $4 level in August 2021, the red nonferrous metal made higher lows and higher highs, leading to another all-time peak at $5.01 per pound in early March 2022.
Range trading gives way to a downside break
Goldman Sachs believes higher highs are on the horizon
Copper is a green metal with the demand outstripping supplies
It will take a decade to bring new production online
Buying copper scale-down on the dip could be the optimal approach
The new record high on March 7 led to a period of consolidation where copper traded between $4.60 and $4.60 per pound. On April 25, the leader of the nonferrous metals fell below the bottom end of its trading range to the $4.40 level. The decline in copper could be the perfect opportunity to load up on the metal that Goldman Sachs calls “the new crude oil” because of its requirements for green energy technology.
Range trading gives way to a downside break
On May 7, the continuous COMEX copper futures reached a new all-time high at over $5 per pound.
The chart highlights the rally that took COMEX copper futures above the May 2021 $4.8985 peak to $5.01 per pound in early March. Copper rallied on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the highest inflation readings in over four decades.
The chart illustrates July copper futures traded in a range from $4.4710 to $4.7660 per pound from mid-March through April 22. On April 25, the price dropped below the bottom of the range on the back of the prospects for higher US interest rates and the rising value of the US dollar against other world reserve currencies.
Higher rates increase the cost of carrying raw material inventories, and a strong dollar tends to be bearish for commodity prices as they rise in other currency terms. However, 2022 is anything but an ordinary year as inflation will keep real interest rates in negative territory, and all currencies, including the US dollar, are losing purchasing power.
July copper futures traded to the most recent low on May 2 at $4.2040 per pound, the lowest price in 2022, and since December 15, 2021, when it found a bottom at $4.1105. The short-term technical trend is bearish, but the longer-term path of least resistance remains bullish. Moreover, supply and demand fundamentals tell us that the current dip in the nonferrous metal is a buying opportunity.
Goldman Sachs believes higher highs are on the horizon
In 2021, as copper was on its way to the May $4.8985 high, Goldman Sachs’ analysts called copper the “new oil” because of its role in green energy technology. Electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other alternative energy initiatives require ever-increasing copper supplies. Goldman pointed out that decarbonization does not occur without copper.
The leading financial firm expects copper prices to rise to $15,000 per ton by 2025. At that level, COMEX futures will eclipse $6.80 per pound, nearly 60% above last week’s closing level at $4.2670. Other analysts expect even higher copper prices. Meanwhile, markets tend to move to prices on the up and downside that defy logic and reasonable and rational analysis. It is impossible to identify tops for bottoms in significant bull and bear market periods. The latest example was crude oil, which fell to below negative $40 per barrel in April 2020. No analyst saw that price coming.
Copper is a green metal with the demand outstripping supplies
Copper demand is set to rise over the coming years, but supplies to meet requirements will be a challenge for at least three reasons:
Addressing climate change - ironically, copper demand will rise because of green initiatives, but net-zero carbon emission pledges by mining companies will weigh on production. Copper production is energy-intensive, requiring hydrocarbons.
Rising production costs - Inflationary pressures have caused labor, financing, energy, equipment, and all mining input costs to rise, putting upward pressure on prices and downward pressure on output.
Supply chain and political issues - Global supply chain bottlenecks continue to cause problems in transporting all commodities from production sites to consumers. Moreover, the geopolitical landscape is creating price distortions. The war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, Russian retaliation, and the “no-limits” support between China and Russia create an ideological bifurcation with the US and Europe. China is the world’s dominant copper consumer. The tensions distort all raw material prices, and copper is no exception.
The prospects for a growing deficit in the copper market are high in 2022.
The five-year trend in LME copper warehouse inventories has made lower highs and lower lows, indicating that robust demand is outpacing supplies.
It will take a decade to bring new production online
The cure for high prices in commodities is always the high price level as producers step up output to take advantage and earn more profits. In copper, it takes eight to ten years to bring a new mine into production, meaning the high prices in 2022 will only yield new and higher output in 2030. Moreover, the leading mining companies are scouring the world for new proven and probable reserves. BHP, a leading mining company, is even exploring the potential for a copper project in the challenging political climate of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. BHP calls the area a “tougher jurisdiction” because of the DRC’s long history of corruption and political instability.
The bottom line is production will struggle to keep up with copper’s growing demand.
Buying copper scale-down on the dip could be the optimal approach- A similar pattern to the May through August price behavior
The latest price action in the copper futures market looks very similar to the move from the May 2021 high to the August 2021 bottom.
The chart shows the decline from $4.8985 in May 2021 to a low of $3.98 in August 2021, an 18.8% correction in five months. Copper futures only traded below the $4 level for one day in August 2021.
The most recent correction took the red metal from $5.01 to $4.1900 per pound or 16.4%. If copper holds above the $3.98 level, it will make another in a long series of higher lows since the March 2020 bottom at just over $2 per pound.
I favor buying copper on a scale-down basis as supply and demand fundamentals and the long-term technical trend remain bullish. The short-term trend is bearish, but that could be an opportunity for those looking to accumulate the nonferrous metal that is a critical component in climate change initiatives. I expect higher highs in copper over the coming years.
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