Go long on AppHarvest; NOVSU
AppHarvest is going public via a SPAQ ticker; NOVSU. I believe they will revolutionize farming. It is going to be a necessity to invest in sustainable farming. The huge ESG trend is continuing, if not accelerating. EV and solar stocks are at all-time highs. Those were the first two frontiers of saving the environment; renewable energy and getting off fossil fuels. The third frontier will be sustainable farming.
NOVSU is a pure-play on sustainable farming so I would go long. They are already in all the major supermarkets with this latest delivery of tomatoes. And according to Martha Stewart, who is backing this and will help bring it to market successfully at scale, the tomatoes are delicious. Go long. This will be included in most ESG ETF's, which will result in consistent inflows from index investors which will keep it chugging along.
ESG
$NEL Hydrogen crush previous ATH, $NKLA signs MOU with $GMAlso recent Bank of America BUY with price target 30 NOK
$NEL Hydrogen testing key level 20NOK on Green New Deal hopes$NEL Hydrogen clearly will benefit from a Biden presidency! If it can establish trading above 20 NOK, the stage looks set for a strong pre christmas rally.
$NEL Hydrogen testing breakout from short term downtrendNEL has become a trader favourite with recent volatility after Nikola was hit by short seller report.
Hourly 20 EMA breaking above 100 EMA, often seen as a promising momentum shift indicator.
NEL needs to break above support/resistance at about 18 and consolidate to regain a bullish sentiment in the short term.
Todays top 20 list show that the Clearstream crowd are still buying NEL stock like hot cakes, reducing fear that main investors would be dissuaded by recent price movements
QuantaFuel trading at last relevant support – mind the gapQuantafuel executed an extremely successfull round of financing after strong newsflow, but is currently trading at last relevant level of support.
Note the volume profile in the chart.
Investors could try a new long position at this price level, but should have a keen eye on risk management. Or do the safe choice, and wait to see if the stock bounces.
NEL stock pulling back sharply after Nikola crash - but no panicAs expected in previous trading idea, NEL falling under important support confirmed the double top sell signal.
But NEL is a stock that has experience several huge volatility events in the past, with earlier drops from top to bottom as large as 53 and 58 %.
Compared to those the recent drop of 36% seem to not cause any sense of panic among the shareholders at all, especially considering that Nikola short report hit at the exact same time as the large US tech selloff.
Investors should consider the volume profile and be a bit patient to see if the stock consolidates already, or that some more time is needed for the market do do its price discovery.
Significant insider by reported this week:
(Oslo, 25 September 2020) Bjørn Simonsen, VP Investor Relations & Corporate
Communication of Nel ASA ("Nel") has today through Simonsen Invest AS, a company
100% owned by Bjørn Simonsen, purchased 100,000 shares in Nel at a price of NOK
15.39 per share. After the transaction Bjørn Simonsen holds 1,616,138 shares and
616,000 options in Nel.
NEL hit by Nikola Short hit piece - mind the gapWith the Hindenburg short accusation report against Nikola, the price of the NEL stock has come under pressure, indicating a possible double top pattern and putting the subsidiary offering in doubt.
The stock need to protect the last major support level at around 17.5, or the clearly visible gap in the volume profile will come into play as large amount of recent positions come deeply underwater.
With new strong disruptions to major markets, a major crash in the share price to more solid support levels in the 12-14 range can not be seen as impossible
However, any strong comeback from Nikola could cause a strong reaction to the upside.
Attractive play to consider a trade with tight stop loss. :)
A trading plan on MicrosoftOn its earnings report today, Microsoft reported better-than-expected earnings and guidance, but issued first-quarter revenue guidance slightly below the Wall Street consensus. The poor revenue guidance was partly, but not completely, offset by slightly better-than expected guidance for first-quarter operating costs. Overall, the magnitude of the earnings beat was much greater than the magnitude of the guidance cut, and my valuation metrics on Microsoft improved today: PEG dropped from 9+ to about 8.76.
Microsoft is still certainly overvalued, however, along with the rest of the FAANG+ stocks. It's about 30-40% above the top end of its traditional range in terms of forward P/E and P/S. For a long-term buy-and-hold play, I would want to see Microsoft drop all the way to my second volume support before I'd want to buy.
In the short term, Microsoft sentiment still looks pretty good. Options traders are net bullish in their positioning, and the Starmine Equity Summary Score for MSFT is 9.9. ESG has mattered a lot lately, and Microsoft earns one of the best ESG ratings I've seen. Thus I think we'll probably see a bounce from 203 either tomorrow or, more likely, Monday or Tuesday next week. A swing trade over the weekend might be a winner as the market holds out hope for vaccine and stimulus news.
In macroeconomic terms, we saw the "recovery" story start to change today. Initial jobless claims turned upward for the first time in 16 weeks. Lots of other indicators I watch are also starting to look a little more negative. Thus, we may be headed into a period of renewed market weakness until the South and Midwest successfully flatten their coronavirus curves and resume reopening their economies. I highly doubt we'll drop all the way to that lower volume support at $135 unless the Moderna, Pfizer, and Astrazeneca vaccines all fail in clinical trials, but a dip to the upper support around $183.50 in August or September after stimulus news fades may not be out of the question, and from there it'd be worth swinging for a bounce. I will target a small entry at $183.50 and a 3x larger entry for $135, contingent on macroeconomic news.
With the recent EV stock craze. Long over 22.70 $NKLA $NIO $TSLAhot sector and under 20 mil free float!
Graf Industrial Corp $GRAF 52WH on P&G Speculations$GRAF is on the move this week on speculations that this SPAC will be merging with P&G spinoff PureCycle, which is a Plastics Recycling startup
This is a higly interesting very high risk play as the merger may very well not come to fruition.
Also look into yesterdays development on the regulatory side:
"Plastics recycling bill introduced to Congress"
To provide for a coordinated Federal program to accelerate
plastics waste reduction and support recycling research
and development for the economic and national security
of the United States, and for other purposes.
The cult stock that you can't beat! $NKLA $NIO $TECL $QQQEasily the top stock to keep an eye on, personally took some Mar 2021 LEAPs
Strong support, people have been buying for the last 4 quarters! And with the new battery review this can fly!!
TESLA RE-VALUATION UPDATE|Q3 EARNINGS DISSECTION|+ESG INVESTING+The Q3 earnings report was surprise to everyone, kudos to Musk and his team for a job well done . There are still some questions, but it seems that most of the fundamental issues that Tesla had since the start of the year, have been solved.
****Here are the key points from the Q3 earnings report and the revaluation with the addition of ESG factors:
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1. Increase to 22.8% Gross Margin(from 18.9%) and an Operating margin of 4.1%(from -2.6% ). Argument : Improvement in their production line, Tesla's becoming more efficient at producing vehicles. (Ref #2)
2. Large improvement in cash flows, mostly because of cost cutting(15% "magical" drop in expenses) ; at the same time slightly lower revenue. More importantly their investments are having faster payoffs than expected ( China expansion and model Y development, both ahead of schedule).
3. Tesla is becoming more diversified as there are more indications that they're successfully developing their energy storage projects. Revenue from project unrelated to auto sales grew from 368(Q2) to 402 mil(Q3), and will continue to expand in 2020 .(Ref #3)
4. Obviously, since cash flows are better, so is their EBITDA(Q2-371 mil, Q3-876 mil), this is where their good EPS figure came from. Furthermore, there are indications of deferred revenue that will be realized in the following quarters." We also expect to
gradually release nearly $500M of accumulated deferred revenue tied to Autopilot and Full Self Driving features."
5. US EV market seems to be saturated, but there could be an opportunity for more demand to kick in as the current ESG investing trends continue based on the current DIM(Green new deal) momentum . Tesla's European expansion will take time and won't be as profitable as the Asian expansion. Chinese expansion opportunity without a doubt will have a large long-term payoff.(Ref #4)
*** Most importantly: The rest of the market could feed off the Tesla surprise. No doubt, it's been the best and most bullish surprise for the earning season so far. In times of rising recession fears, Tesla doing well as the market leader in a growing EV automarket, definitely is a major benefactor to the sentiment overall .***
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Have to say that I've learn to, not be dependant on wall street analysts when trading highly volatile growth stocks (extension from my previous post). But then again, going off of management's' guidance, they will always have the incentive to manipulate the numbers . It can be said that their bad start of 2019, was an existential threat to Tesla, so Musk and the team got to work. There are still some questions about profitability, but the tricky part is that Tesla's investors are motivated because of ESG factors, not by profitability . Profitability matters less to these type of investors, since the markup in valuation from having a high ESG* score, could improve long-term returns in such investments as Tesla . At these low rates, even if profitability is low, Tesla could keep financing their investments and keep growing with good fundamentals. Additionally, taking their positive ESG score into consideration- the long term looks bullish. I think that more and more portfolio managers will sacrifice potentially higher sharpe ratios in order to acquire stocks with higher ESG scores(some trade-off), as investor preferences continue to change and become more and more adaptive to the increasing popular ESG investing trends. ( Ref #1, great paper on ESG's impact on investing.
This is the update on Tesla post-earnings. Learned my lesson (my bad) , short interest was just too damn high to ignore it pre-earnings.
-Step_ahead_ofthemarket-
*ESG stands for Environmental, Social, Governance.
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References and Disclosure:
1. papers.ssrn.com ( ESG Investing paper, released about a week ago)
2. ir.tesla.com (Q3 Earnings report)
3. hypercharts.co (All the financials)
4. www.youtube.com (Good video on earnings and conference call)
*https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/environmental-social-and-governance-esg-criteria.asp
Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels.
