Looking for a drop off to occur in the market soon. Seasonality wise speaking June tends to be negative. Thus, I would like to see a drop in the next couple of weeks. There is the August high which looks tempting as a DOL and there is a FVG left back in April 2022. I will watch price when we engage in both of those levels and will see how price reacts, if...
Friday's we just follow the chart. We'll dive back into PRICE ACTION next week! Have a great weekend.
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 05/22 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like potentially arriving at some kind of agreement on...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 05/19 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like potentially arriving at some kind of agreement on...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 05/17 Our stance last couple of weeks has been: "Our models are indicating an initial bias towards an inflection point coming soon. Barring any unexpected bullish development showing up on the horizon, chances are that this could be unwinding to the downside". Looks like Biden and McCarthy potentially coming close to...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 05/12 Other than the simmering regional bank crisis concerns whipsawing between the sentiments of relief and concern, there does not appear to be much for the markets to go by these days. The depressed VIX could be pointing to potential complacency in the markets that could unravel in the coming weeks to either...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 05/09 With the earnings noise in the rear view mirror, markets are likely to go back to the basics this week. The CPI and the PPI releases this week are likely going to make investors contemplating over the basics of the markets - economy, inflation, interest rates, and, maybe, freshly obsess over potential...
With recession fears growing, a lot of individuals are short here, and will accept a bull case scenario if we see a break of 4200, or a break of the February highs. Thus, what I'd like to see is price going up and taking out the February highs during either Monday or Tuesday. Then, on Wednesday, with the Core CPE data coming out, I'd like for that news to be a...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 05/05 The strong Non-Farm Payrolls number on top of what Powell had to say yesterday after the FOMC rate decision should have pushed the markets down worried about "higher rates for longer time" but the markets seem to be celebrating mainstream good news for now. The options positioning and the extremely bearish retail...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 05/04 While the FOMC and Powell could not scare the markets enough yesterday, the Regional Banks are accomplishing that and some! With the KBW Regional Banking Index is now flirting with the 2020 Covid-19 lows. And, it is May (the "Sell in May and Go Away" adage on the street, and in academic research)! Looks like a...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 05/03 Thirty minutes into the FOMC rate decision, markets appear to be yawning at the numbers and just waiting to parse every word Powell is going to speak at the press conference beginning at 2:30pm ET. As of now, markets seem to be in a dilemma as to whether to be scared of the Fed speak about being tough on their...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 05/02 In our first trading plan of this trading week - published yesterday, Mon. 05/01 - we wrote: "With the FOMC meeting this week, everything else takes a second place until Wednesday. Expect a push-and-pull action in the markets heading into the event. If you are not a nimble trader, wait until the event is over for...
S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 05/01 With the FOMC meeting this week, everything else takes a second place until Wednesday. Expect a push-and-pull action in the markets heading into the event. If you are not a nimble trader, wait until the event is over for any directional trading. Most of the market action in the last few sessions appears to be...
I am still waiting for the wave Elliot. But despite this unfortunate delay, here is my HTF chart as of today Saturday 29th 2023.
Big Tech Earnings to Trump Economic Slowdown Concerns? Yesterday evening's strong earnings from Meta seems to be adding to the tone of impressive earnings from Microsoft, Google, McDonalds, and Chipotle that all seem to demonstrate that major firms have pricing power to absorb the inflationary pressures. Continued big tech earnings momentum into the next week,...
Markets Struggling to Gain Some Traction - Day 2 Despite the initial downward momentum post-PMI release this morning, markets still seem stuck in the tug-of-war between the "Inflation peaked" optimism and the "recession onset" concerns, and the earnings season so far has failed to give either the bulls or the bears any real traction. Whether the earnings next...
Markets Struggling to Gain Some Traction Markets seem stuck in the tug-of-war between the "Inflation peaked" optimism and the "recession onset" concerns, and the earnings season so far has failed to give either the bulls or the bears any real traction. Whether the earnings ahead will help the markets gain momentum in either direction remains to be seen. Our...
"Inflation Peaked" Relief v/s "Recession Onset" Concern With the CPI and FOMC minutes almost confirming the cooling off of the inflation and potential "mild" recession, markets are on-and-off with the sense of relief for a day and with the sense of concern another day. The imminent earnings season should help decide which way the sentiment would settle towards....