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Etfs

VGT Post-Election Year ReturnsVanguard Information Tech ETF ( AMEX:VGT ) tends to consistently perform best in the year following a US Presidential Election. I believe given its track record, VGT could replicate the previous three post-election years. This would put the price at approximately $800 at the end of 2025. Strategy: My strategy has been to build a position throughout the pre-election and election year, and rotate out of the position into better yielding opportunities exactly one year after the November 2024 election.
AMEX:VGTLong
by PeakInvestmentStrategies
KraneShares Asia High Yield Bond ETF Analysis 10/15/24DISCLOSURE: As of 10/15/24 I have no open position in NYSE: KHYB KHYB is an asia focused high yield corporate bond fund. The current yield is 15.3% per annum. Why asia high yield? 1. Higher risk premium for high yield corporate bonds The asia corporate bond sector has higher yield given similar rated bonds in western markets. In particular the spread for high yield asian corporate bonds is 800 basis points above the risk free rate. 2. Lower default rates and higher coverage ratios Asia high yield bonds have lower default rates and higher coverage ratios to their US and EU counterparts. This fact alongside the higher risk premium points to a greater reward/risk ratio in the bond market compared to other regions and grade of bonds. 3. Capital appreciation potential With the defaults of the Chinese real estate developers the asia high yield space took a hit in price and default rates. If you are confident that default rates will return to the historic norm or lower the share price of KHYB could return to the previous highs in the $40/share range. Why KHYB? 1. Excludes Japanese bonds Japan is an exception in the asia bond space in that the country has negative real yields. Not to say they should be avoided, but if you are looking for positive yields and not to speculate on rates removing Japan is a prudent choice. 2. Shorter bond duration KHYB has an average bond duration of 2 years. This is below the asia high yield average of 2.7 year duration. This lowers the price fluctuations as opposed to longer dated bond funds. 3. Below average default rates Despite the defaults in broader asia credit market throughout 2022, the KraneShares fund did not experience a single default in their portfolio. Of course their portfolio declined in value alongside the market, but this statistic goes to show the responsibility and competence of the managers. Here is the link to a presentation by KraneShares where I sourced most of this data: engage.kraneshares.com If you enjoyed my article follow for more reports posted regularly
AMEX:KHYBLong
by sihen999
#Ethereum Update:Today was the first day ETH ETFs were traded. The price of ETH is now correcting because this news is already known and has become just a formality. What’s important about these ETFs are the volumes, which in the case of the #BTCETF approval initially put selling pressure on the market, followed by a larger upward movement. I have two scenarios for this 1-day (1D) timeframe: 🟢 Green Scenario (Bullish): Possible recovery and increase in the coming days. ⚫ Black Scenario (Bearish): Short-term correction, but potentially very bullish in the medium term because a lot of liquidity has formed in that marked area and we also have an FVG (imbalance) on the W timeframe + resistance on that parallel channel. Watch the market closely 3100-3300 and consider these scenarios in your trading strategies!
Long
by TraderX10101
All eyes on 69000!Once again, all attention is directed towards one area: 69k, the ATH from the last cycle. It's the zone with the trendline, order block, and Fib attention area. If this zone becomes support, there's only one way - up. During this consolidation in the range, liquidity has been taken only from below the consolidation. Next, the liquidity from the upper side, 73-80k, will be targeted. Altcoin season? Very close. However, there's a chance some may make another low in this consolidation, and with liquidity taken from there, a larger climb might begin. The market sentiment has quickly shifted from bearish to bullish with just a small pump. It might be wise to place buy orders a bit lower as a precaution. Overall? I'm very bullish. Institutions, Pension Funds, Investment Funds, the world's most powerful countries (not Germany :))), ETFs (Bitcoin and Ethereum, and maybe soon Solana), Donald Trump (almost a certainty as the future US president): BUY BITCOIN/crypto and promote it. Super cycle is coming! 🌟
Long
by TraderX10101
Should You Long SOL on Solana ETF Rumors? A Deep DiveCNBC's Brian Kelly, a crypto investor and "Fast Money" trader, recently ignited a debate by suggesting Solana (SOL) could be the next cryptocurrency to get a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US. While this news might sound bullish for SOL, the decision to "go long" – meaning buying and holding for a price increase – requires careful consideration. Here's a breakdown of the factors to weigh before diving into SOL based on ETF speculation. Potential Benefits of a Solana ETF • Increased Accessibility: An ETF streamlines the process of investing in SOL. Unlike buying directly on crypto exchanges, which can be intimidating for new investors, an ETF would trade on traditional stock exchanges. This could attract a wider audience and potentially drive up demand for SOL. • Enhanced Liquidity: ETFs generally trade with higher daily volume compared to individual cryptocurrencies on exchanges. This increased liquidity could benefit SOL by making it easier to buy and sell without significant price fluctuations. • Boosted Credibility: SEC approval of a SOL ETF would provide a significant stamp of legitimacy for the project. This could attract institutional investors who are often hesitant to enter the unregulated crypto market. A potential influx of institutional money could significantly boost SOL's price. However, Don't Get Carried Away Yet • Uncertain Approval Timeline: While Kelly's prediction sparked a conversation, it's important to remember it's just speculation. The SEC has not officially confirmed plans for a Solana ETF, and the approval process could take months or even years. • Regulatory Hurdles: Just like with Ethereum ETFs, the SEC might raise concerns about potential market manipulation or the underlying technology of Solana. These hurdles could delay or even derail the approval process. • ETF Structure Matters: The devil is in the details. Not all ETFs are created equal. Some might hold actual SOL, while others might use derivative contracts. The specific structure of the proposed ETF will significantly impact your investment exposure. Alternatives to Consider • Direct SOL Purchase: If you're confident in Solana's long-term potential, buying SOL directly on a crypto exchange could be a viable option. However, ensure you understand the risks associated with managing your own crypto wallet. • Diversified Crypto Funds: Several investment funds offer exposure to a basket of cryptocurrencies, including Solana. This might be a good option for investors seeking broader diversification within the crypto market. Ultimately, the decision to "go long" SOL should be based on your individual investment goals, risk tolerance, and thorough research. Don't base your investment solely on ETF speculation. Analyze Solana's fundamentals, track its development roadmap, and stay updated on regulatory developments. Here are some additional factors to consider: • Solana's Recent Performance: While SOL has experienced significant growth in the past, its price can be volatile. Analyze its historical performance and understand the risks involved. • Competition within the Smart Contract Space: Solana faces stiff competition from established players like Ethereum and emerging projects. Research how Solana is differentiating itself and its long-term competitive advantage. • Your Investment Horizon: Are you looking for a short-term trade or a long-term investment? ETFs might be more suitable for a long-term approach, while direct crypto purchases could offer more flexibility for short-term trading (but with higher risk). Remember, investing in any cryptocurrency is inherently risky. Conduct your own due diligence and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
COINBASE:SOLUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Congress Throws Weight Behind Spot Ethereum ETFs: SEC Approval?Congress Throws Weight Behind Spot Ethereum ETFs: SEC Approval on the Horizon? On May 22nd, 2024, a bipartisan group of US lawmakers sent a strong message to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In a letter, they urged the regulatory body to approve applications for spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This move signifies a growing momentum in Congress for legitimizing Ethereum within the traditional investment landscape. The letter's signatories included heavyweights like House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) and Financial Services Committee Vice Chairman French Hill (R-AR). Notably, Democrats were also present, with Representatives Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), Mike Flood (R-NE), and Wiley Nickel (D-NC) joining the call for regulatory clarity. This bipartisan support highlights a potential turning point for the cryptocurrency industry, as it demonstrates a willingness from both sides of the aisle to embrace innovation. Why Ethereum ETFs Matter Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, are investment vehicles that track the performance of an underlying asset, like a basket of stocks or a commodity. A spot ETF would directly hold Ethereum, allowing investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency without the complexities of managing their own digital wallets. This could significantly increase investor participation in the Ethereum market, potentially leading to greater price stability and mainstream adoption. For many lawmakers, approving spot Ethereum ETFs is a logical next step after the SEC's green light for spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year. The argument goes that the SEC has already established a framework for evaluating these products, and Ethereum, as the second-largest cryptocurrency, deserves similar treatment. The Lawmakers' Argument In their letter, the lawmakers specifically urged the SEC to apply consistent standards. They argued that the "principles" used to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs should also be employed for Ethereum. This consistency is crucial for building trust in the regulatory process and fostering a fair market environment for all cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, the letter highlights the potential benefits of Ethereum ETFs for investors. Increased accessibility could attract new capital to the market, bolstering innovation and economic growth within the Ethereum ecosystem. Additionally, the lawmakers suggest that a regulated ETF structure would offer greater investor protection compared to the current, less-regulated avenues for acquiring Ethereum. The Road Ahead The SEC is currently facing deadlines for decisions on several spot Ethereum ETF proposals. The letter from lawmakers arrives at a critical juncture, potentially influencing the regulatory body's final verdict. While the SEC has historically expressed concerns about potential market manipulation and investor protection in the cryptocurrency space, the recent Bitcoin ETF approvals suggest a shift towards a more open stance. Potential Challenges Despite the growing momentum, some hurdles remain. The SEC might still raise concerns about the volatility of the Ethereum market and the potential for manipulation. Additionally, unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum's underlying technology is constantly evolving, which could introduce complexities for regulators. Conclusion The bipartisan push for spot Ethereum ETFs signifies a growing recognition of the potential of cryptocurrencies within the US financial system. With lawmakers advocating for regulatory clarity, the SEC faces a crucial decision that could shape the future of Ethereum and the broader cryptocurrency landscape. Whether the SEC approves these ETFs remains to be seen, but the recent developments suggest a potential paradigm shift in the regulatory approach to digital assets.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
BTC - Path of least resistance and maximum painI'm not a conspiracy nut but giving room for belief in conspiracy theories, let's say the entire crypto market is a "washing machine" for various fronts. It just doesn't have any practical utility right now, that makes the world a better and safer place. The possibilities are endless but let's just say it hasn't been leveraged for any noble cause, yet. Sakamoto Natoshi would be turning in his grave should he know what his noble invention was being used for, if indeed it was a noble act from the get go. Bottomline, it has a shade to it's existence, and as such can only be construed to serve malicious intentions of governments, authorities and the rich. So it is always bound to opt the path of least resistance and maximum pain, as far as common folk are concerned, i.e. acting against them. Now stepping into reality, considering common folk, retail traders and institutions who are involved in this charade. Common folk: I meet people constantly who have never heard of bitcoin, also people who learnt about it's existence just now in 2024! A subset of this common folk with some grasp of how world economics work and an appetite for risk want a piece of the action. Retail Traders: I'm not sure if the term "retail traders" also encompasses the so called "whales". I'm assuming not. So let's say everyone working with a portfolio value of 1BTC or less. From this category (at least the sensible and well educated) never expected what happened in the first 3 months of 2024. But now that we are where we are, they also want a piece of the action(including myself), knowing very well they could be too late at the scene. Institutions: All the hedge funds and their 60+ grandpa managers who do not understand technology are also now a part of this charade, in addition to various tech companies and their CEOs, playing we know it all. "Apparently" the whole rally is attributed to the ETF inflows from said institutions. And somehow there is this sense of unshakable faith in the air, if these institutions are already invested, BTC is bound for the moon and it can never look back again. There are preposterous articles on how any price below 70k was a buy! Everything mentioned so far isn't an established fact! Let's now turn to tangible facts we know, our dear charts! Hoping and praying to the good lord, that this data is also not fabricated. The 12 month candle on the left is as big as it's ever gotten. We still have 7 months left to go until the candle closes. And looking at the volume, we are at 450k on this particular exchange, compared to an average of ~2 million on previous full candle. Assuming half a million traffic per quarter, this volume does make a lot of sense but what it doesn't correlate to, is the ETF's inflows. If anything, it should be double or triple the average based on all the news about the kind of money that's been inflowing. Very skeptical! If I were any sensible and should I consider myself in the position of a market maker, I see a lot of paths testing and breaking supports(the beaten path), rather than price discovery(the road not taken). Because, -who dares to buy any further?! -retail is already late to the party, don't want that portfolio eroding -institutions are "supposedly" already invested, who are they going to sell it too? They should be idiots to buy it all over again all the way to 100k, coz if nobody wants to buy now, who's gonna buy at 100k?! -halving has reduced the supply, there is less supply for the next 3 quarters than the previous 12 month candles and it makes sense to buy/sell lower again than at the 100k or 130k area On the contrary, looking at the perspective of taking bitcoin away from the common folk's reach, it does make sense to drive the price into the 6 figures. But then again, if you take it away from the common folk's reach, how is the so called "evil system", that's basically designed to prey on simple minds, supposed to work?! I know, I know, I'm rambling! The point is, I don't see this going to the moon any time soon! And I could be completely wrong about this and may have already fallen for the trap that's set for all of us! Time will only tell. Heartfelt thanks to anyone who's managed to reached thus far, please leave a like if you did like the read or teach me a swear word in your mother tongue down in the comments, for wasting your time! Peace!
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by TulpenFieber
2
Bitcoin $Btc #Btc KISS (keep it simple stup*d) Your job is really so much easier than you think right now. Just buy the lines and sell the boxes and you'll be fine over the next few months. IF you get scared and feel your bag is bigger than you are comfortable with on the way down the begin using the same lines above as you get below them to trim on the way back up just enough to stay within your comfort levels. In the BIGGER picture i think this cycle is far from over and there will be plenty more opportunities along the way to make $ buying the lows and selling the highs. #Bitcoin
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by rarebreed29
Has the Bitcoin Market Become More Manipulated After ETFs? The long-awaited approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in late 2023 undoubtedly marked a turning point for the cryptocurrency. However, with this institutional influx, concerns regarding increased market manipulation have also surfaced. Let's delve into whether these concerns hold water and what the future might hold for Bitcoin's volatility. Pre-ETF Era: A Wild West of Wash Trading Market manipulation in Bitcoin wasn't exactly a new phenomenon before ETFs. Wash trading, a tactic where investors buy and sell the same asset repeatedly to inflate its trading volume, was a prevalent concern. This created an illusion of high demand, enticing others to invest and driving prices up artificially. Mark Cuban, a prominent crypto investor, even predicted wash trading as the "next possible implosion" for the industry in early 2023 . The Double-Edged Sword of Institutional Investors The arrival of big players with the ETF has undeniably brought more regulation and scrutiny to the market. This, in theory, should deter blatant manipulation tactics. However, the sheer volume these institutions trade with can also influence prices significantly. The question isn't whether they manipulate, but rather how their trading strategies might unintentionally impact market behavior. A Glimpse into the Recent Controversy A recent Wall Street Journal report alleging that Binance, a major cryptocurrency exchange, fired an investigator uncovering market manipulation by a VIP client reignited concerns . This incident highlights the potential conflicts that can arise when profit margins clash with regulatory compliance. So, Has Manipulation Increased? The answer is complex. While blatant wash trading might be less prevalent, the impact of institutional trading volume and potential conflicts within exchanges are new considerations. It's likely that the nature of manipulation has evolved, becoming more subtle and potentially harder to detect. A Future of Stability or Stagnation? The influx of institutional investors could indeed lead to a more stable Bitcoin market, mirroring traditional stock indices. This would be a far cry from the explosive, volatile growth Bitcoin has seen in the past. However, this stability might also come at the cost of reduced returns for investors hoping for another Bitcoin boom. The Long Hodler's Perspective As a large language model, I can't claim to be a "hodler" (long-term Bitcoin holder). However, historical data suggests that Bitcoin has weathered similar periods of regulation and scrutiny before. The key takeaway is that despite potential manipulation, Bitcoin's underlying technology and its core value proposition as a decentralized currency still hold significant appeal. The Road Ahead The future of Bitcoin manipulation hinges on two key factors: 1. Regulatory Strength: Stronger regulations with clear guidelines and robust enforcement mechanisms are crucial to deter future manipulation attempts. 2. Transparency on Exchanges: Exchanges need to be more transparent about their trading practices and address potential conflicts of interest. Conclusion Whether Bitcoin morphs into a stable, institutionalized asset or maintains its volatile character remains to be seen. However, the fight against manipulation, regardless of its form, will be critical in ensuring a fair and healthy Bitcoin market for all participants.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by bryandowningqln
1
Get Ready for Bitcoin to Rally as ETF Adoption Grows!Bitcoin's future is here due to growing ETF adoption. Here's a breakdown of the key points with a neutral perspective: Key Points: • ETF Adoption: The message highlights the increasing adoption of Bitcoin ETFs, which could be driving institutional investment. • Potential Rally: This suggests that Bitcoin's price may rise significantly due to this new wave of interest. • Call to Action: It strongly encourages you to buy Bitcoin now to potentially profit from the rally. Neutral Perspective: • Investment Risk: Bitcoin is a volatile asset, and there's no guarantee of a rally. • Do Your Research: Focus on potential gains but there are investment risks. It's important to understand Bitcoin's price history and the risks involved before investing. • Long-Term Strategy: Understand short-term gain. Consider if Bitcoin aligns with your long-term investment goals. Before Investing: • Research Bitcoin's price history and volatility. • Understand the risks and potential rewards involved. • Only invest what you can afford to lose. Overall: There are potentially lucrative opportunities but be cautious. Do your research and prioritize long-term strategy over following short-term hype. Consider consulting a financial advisor for personalized guidance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
BTC Phase 4 ResistanceBTC is currently testing the All time High. Will BTC just plough through the resistance because of the ETF's or is there any other scenario possible? There is an interesting correlation and there are also key differences between the 2017 Bull Market Cycle and the current timeframe if we analyse the weekly and monthly timeframe. Historic Cycle 2017 As BTC went through the previous resistance zones in 2017 the pattern was identical until phase 3. Back then there was heavy resistance and we had a correction to the highs of phase 2, before continuing higher. Current Cycle 2024 In this current cycle we have not had a healthy correction to the highs of phase 2, instead prices continued to climb higher. The resistance zone for phase 3 in both cases was almost identical at around 40% under the previous All time High. As we approach the resistance of phase 4, are pricing continuing to climb higher? Historic 86 Level Resistance In 2017 we got rejected at phase 4 when the RSI reached the 86 Level on the Weekly timeframe. Current 86 Level Resistance Currently we are at the same level on the RSI. We think it is very likely that next month BTC get's rejected and we enter a correction. Swift moves to the upside for a long periods of time are a warning sign for any asset. If BTC doesn't have solid corrections we could have a shorter bull market then expected.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by ChartRage
2
OIH: Keep Going! 👏OIH is on its way toward our green Target Zone (between $$321.09 and $339.97), nearing the last local high from the end of January. We expect the ETF to arrive in said Target Zone during the orange wave ii before the orange five-wave downward structure should continue, ultimately concluding below the support at $277.30 (but still above $250.69). Still, there is a 32% chance that the orange wave Alt.ii has already finished without reaching our Target Zone, which would be confirmed by the price dropping below $277.30 earlier.
AMEX:OIH
by MarketIntel
Bitcoin Cycle Top ProjectionUsing Fib Time Zones combined with Fib Channels (both starting at the beginning of this range) I'm projecting Bitcoin's top to come March 2025 in the range of $132,000 - $144,000 . Personally, I believe this may be THE top. Time will tell, but with the advancement of AI, the Bitcoin ETF's gaining control of a considerable amount of the BTC supply and the digital dollar vs. BRICS I see a whole change in the way we exchange value between one another. There was A LOT of math within this, but all the time zones and each cycle's channel fall on actual fib levels. Yes, this is much earlier than all previous cycles - which leads me to my next point... This cycle IS different. Do you really believe now that the institutions are invested they'll give any retail investor/historic BTC trader a "good" entry? Bitcoin's on it's run, and if you're waiting for a dip you may miss this rally...
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by brettjessen
Bitcoin is currently exhibiting a short-term bullish sentiment Technical Analysis: Bitcoin is currently exhibiting a short-term bullish sentiment as it approaches the 45661 order block. The recent price action suggests a potential move upward, aligning with the prevailing market sentiment. Key Levels: Resistance at 45661: The upcoming order block at 45661 is a critical level to watch. A breakout above this level could signal further upside potential. Support at 30876: On the downside, the 30876 order block serves as a crucial support level. A retracement to this level may provide buying opportunities for traders.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by outkla
2
DIA in downward trendSPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Avrg ETF Tr (DIA, $381.37) RSI Indicator left the overbought zone on January 31, 2024 This is a signal that DIA's price could be shifting from an uptrend to a downtrend. Traders may consider selling the stock or exploring put options. A.I.dvisor looked back and found 43 similar cases where DIA's RSI Indicator left the overbought zone, and in 35 of them led to a successful outcome. Odds of Success: 81%. DIA in downward trend: price may decline as a result of having broken its higher Bollinger Band on January 22, 2024 DIA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on January 22, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 35 of the 39 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 90%. Price Prediction Chart Technical Analysis (Indicators) Bearish Trend Analysis The 10-day RSI Indicator for DIA moved out of overbought territory on January 31, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 36 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 84%. The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected. Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DIA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%. Bullish Trend Analysis The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on January 18, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DIA as a result. In 67 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DIA just turned positive on January 30, 2024. Looking at past instances where DIA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%. Following a +0.89% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DIA advanced for three days, in 315 of 371 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%. The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 266 of 336 cases where DIA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 79%.
AMEX:DIAShort
by Serhii_Bond
Pre halving BTC: institutional greed, chaos and orderWith less than 100 days remaining until the next halving, BTC has followed the projected trajectory. Given the buzz surrounding ETFs and the current market conditions, a pullback seems probable. The initial support rests at 36k, with the subsequent support at 32k. The initial support will probably uphold the price, so I'd suggest a 65/35 liquidity split between these two zones. Until the all-time high is broken, discussing the next bull run may seem premature, but it's important not to underestimate institutional greed and Bitcoin's inherent scarcity.
OANDA:BTCUSD
by pouyanev
2