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Real Estate crash coming?It has been a long time since our last ETFs discussion. Today I have something to share. IYR (US Real Estate) is getting ready for a new decline. COVID is a real disaster for an offline business. Thousands of restaurants and other retail businesses have already closed and this number will be increasing. It is a dangerous sign. With that in mind, we can experience the start of a new decline in the USA commercial real estate in the coming 2 – 3 months. Once the destruction of earning levels reflects into the economic cycles, banks will tighten lending opportunities. That means the number of capable buyers will decrease at a time when home inventories may begin to skyrocket. Does it remind you of something? – It is very similar to what happened before the 2008-09 credit crisis. Pay attention to the Case-Shiller data. It is showing home price levels had already exceeded 2006-07 levels. So, what do we have? – Extremely high price levels, combined with the uncertainty of future earnings, unemployment, a big number of closed retail businesses, falling consumer confidence, layoffs, etc. What result can we expect? Real Estate ETFs can decline another 30 – 50%. So, if you deal with USA commercial real estate, it makes perfect sense to hedge your risks. And active traders have another pending opportunity to get substantial gains.
AMEX:IYRShort
by UnknownUnicorn1156963
1
SPDW: Another SPDR ETF to add to your long-term portfolioSPDW: Another SPDR ETF to add to your long-term portfolios. Just a reminder: the IRS is allowing contributions until July 15th to your retirement accounts! So, if you have a couple thousand, I strongly recommend taking advantage of opening a Roth IRA. Remember it is never too late to start saving! Another addition I have made to my portfolio is $SPDW. The SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF is an excellent way to diversify your holdings to the global market without adding additional exposure to the US Markets. Additionally, $SPDW offers a 3.64% Distribution Yield (TTM) (30 Day SEC yield of 2.84%) without the risks that are commonly attributed to emerging market funds. The fund consists of well-known global corporations; $NESN (Nestle) 1.69%, $ROG (Roche) 1.40%, SMSN (Samsung) 1.26%, $NOVN (Novartis) 1.23%, $SAP (SAP) 0.81%, and $AZN (AstraZeneca) 0.80%. FactSet analysts give the ETF a “A” rating and XTF a 9.4 out of 10.0. The expense ratio of the ETF is miniscule at 0.04%. $SPDW appears to have stabilized from March lows but is still trading below its February highs. It would appear that this fund hasn’t fully recovered but is still an excellent choice for a long-term buy. Long 150 Shares SPDW.
AMEX:SPDWLong
by luminaryfi
1
$SPYG: An ETF that holds the winners of the "coronavirus market"Recently, I have been cleaning up my Roth IRA and other qualified retirement accounts. Most analysts are now recommending the move out of U.S. Treasury bonds due to their low-yields (and almost certain – continued low yield over the next decade!). I am a fan of ETFs for long-term investing. The benefits are numerous compared to stock selection and mutual funds. Access to highly priced stocks (Alphabet, Amazon, etc.), monthly distributions, and low expense ratios, are just a few of the benefits to ETFs for retirement accounts. Which brings us to $SPYG or the SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF. SPYG holds the winners (or should I say survivors) of the current market. The current breakdown of the fund is $MSFT (10.11%), $AAPL (9.66%), $AMZN (7.87%), $FB (3.72%), $GOOGL (2.80%), $GOOG (2.73%), $V (2.13%), $MA (1.73%), $NVDA (1.53%), and $NFLX (1.39%). Analysts rank $SPYG highly – FactSet ($FDS) gives the ETF an A rating and XTF.com rates $SPYG a perfect 10.0 out of 10.0. The technical analysis shows that the fund has recovered nicely since the March lows. Even with the risk of another Covid-19 outbreak, $SPYG holds companies proven to survive – perhaps even thrive – in the new market. Long 100 $SPYG @ 42.46. Total Long 1000 $SPYG (accumulated lots).
AMEX:SPYGLong
by luminaryfi
"CLOU" A Cloud ETF with Continued GainsGlobal X Cloud Computing ETF continues to take off as the broader market makes sideways or smaller increases in comparison. The price is very attractive at around $20 per share that offers exposure to Twilio "TWLO" 6.06%, Zscaler "ZS" 5.04%, Zoom Video "ZM" 4.57%, Coupa Software "COUP" 4.45%, Shopify "SHOP" 4.10%, Paycom "PAYC" 3.94% and quite a few others according to XTF. It should be noted that there is expense ratio of 0.68%. The expense ratio is high for larger ETFs, but just slightly above average for newer niche ETFs. The ETF has 635.25 AUM (Assets under Management) and a TTM Dividend/Distribution yield of 0.04% according to FactSet. Unfortunately, this is not an ETF that will provide much return in the form of dividends. There are quite a few dominant players in the ETF that have seen exploding gains since the Covid-19 pandemic. There is also widespread belief that the behaviors established during the lockdowns will extend long beyond the pandemic. Many companies have come out in support of allowing employees to continue to work from home. Additionally, primary, and secondary education students may also continue to learn from home - accelerating a trend in online education. If these predictions hold true, there will be much growth to be gained from the underlying companies in "CLOU". There are very few filters on what companies are permitted in the fund. Global X states that any company that earns at least $500M from software or applications, provide virtualized computing from a PaaS, and cloud computing data centers is eligible for the fund. The long-term value of the fund looks great for growth. The EMA 12 is at $20.00 and the EMA 26 is at $19.59 (these values were chosen as they are corresponding to the MACD indicator). However, there are some significant signs that the fund may be overbought according to the Stochastic RSI and the MFI. The Stoch RSI K is at 99.41 and D at 99.61 and the MFI 14 at 86.26. These are signs that the fund may be extremely overbought. Although, it should be noted that we are looking at an ETF and not common stock of any one company. The linear regression shows a very promising trend with the price very smoothly moving around the mean within a standard deviation of 2.5 at a length of 100 and a Pearson’s R Correlation Coefficient of 0.9043. Therefore, it would be a strong signal to wait for an entry point if you have not already purchased this ETF. At the time of this writing, a price between approximately $19.30 and $20.00 would be an acceptable entry point into this ETF. LONG 100 Shares CLOU @ 19.73
NASDAQ:CLOULong
by luminaryfi
What happened to WTI today could happen to Brent next weekAs I understand it, today's oil price meltdown was triggered by an oil ETF called USO. Unlike gold ETFs that hold physical gold, oil ETFs like USO hold no physical oil. The way USO works is that it holds contracts for delivery of physical oil next month (in this case, contracts for delivery on May 20). Then, on the 20th of the month, it sells those contracts and uses the proceeds to buy contracts for delivery the following month (in this case, contracts for delivery on June 20). Ordinarily this works just fine, because the volume in USO is typically pretty low and there are usually plenty of real oil buyers out there willing to pick up USO's contracts on the 20th and take delivery of the physical oil. Lately, however, speculators have been putting billions of dollars into USO. So today, as it rolled over to next month's contracts, USO dumped all those billions of dollars of May 20 delivery contracts onto a market with very few real oil buyers willing to take May 20 delivery of physical oil. USO's Brent oil counterpart BNO works the same way and has been getting similar inflows from speculators. My understanding is that Brent oil delivery contracts roll over on the 29th of the month, so a similar meltdown may be coming in Brent oil on April 29. Also, after today's meltdown we may see some of the demand from speculators go away, and the price of oil stay down at a level that reflects the actual demand from people and companies with licenses to take physical delivery. Added to all of this are the problems that the world's oil storage space is filling up fast, and the reopening of the economy in June is likely to encounter lots of logistical bottlenecks that may slow down the return of oil demand. So I'm thinking the near-term environment for oil looks incredibly weak. One way to play this is to short producers, especially US shale companies that may go bankrupt due to high debt and high production costs. Another way to play it might be to short BNO.
TVC:UKOILShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
22
Ahrvo Weekly Sector Rankings: 4/13/2020Earnings season for the first quarter of 2020 kicked off yesterday, with 21 S&P 500 companies reporting results. Of the 21 companies, 16 reported positive EPS surprise and 15 reported a positive revenue surprise. For Q1, 72 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 32 have issued positive EPS guidance. 54 companies report(ed) earnings today, including major banks JP Morgan (profits down 69%) and Wells Fargo (profits down 99%). Both banks have set aside billions in reserves to cover potential lending losses from the coronavirus pandemic. S&P 500 earnings are expected to decline by 10% year-over-year, with revenue growth expected to be 1.0% According to Factset, analysts expect the S&P 500 to return 17.8% over the next year (S&P 500 price target of 3239). Financials (+23.3%) and Consumer Discretionary (+18.6%) are the only sectors expected to outperform the market. Technology, Industrials, Healthcare, Utilities, Materials, Energy, and Consumer Staples are expected to return 17.4%, 17.1%, 16.5%, 14.6%, 14.5%, 14.2%, 14.1%, and 11.2%, respectively. Similar to earnings expectations, analysts tend to overestimate the expected return of the market. Over the last decade, analysts have overshot their price target on the S&P 500 by 2.3% on average. Over the last 15 years, that number is much higher, with analysts’ predictions 9.8% higher than actual performance results. Going forward, market/sector price targets will likely be revised downward. While all S&P sectors were up last week, the performance of cyclical and defensive sectors were relatively mixed. However, cyclicals continued to outperform. Materials (ticker: XLB), Consumer Discretionary (ticker: XLY), Financials (ticker: XLF), Utilities (ticker: XLU), and Energy (ticker: XLE) outperformed the S&P 500 (+11%), returning 18.0%, 15.4%, 14.7%, 13.7, and 13.3% respectively. Technology (ticker: XLK), Industrials (ticker: XLI), Healthcare (ticker: XLU), and Consumer Staples (ticker: XLP) underperformed, returning 10.7%, 8.9%, 8.3%, and 4.3%, respectively. Over the last two weeks, cyclical sectors have outperformed, making up ground from the substantial losses suffered during the market sell-off in March. However, on a year-to-date basis, cyclical sectors (w/the exception of consumer discretionary) have substantially underperformed the broader market. Given their sensitivity to economic activity, coupled with the fact that we are likely in the early innings of an economic and earnings recession, I expect cyclicals to underperform going forward (w/ the exception of consumer discretionary). Defensives should continue to perform well, with the exception of consumer staples stocks, which seem to be priced to perfection. It will be interesting to see how our stock, industry, and sectors models adjust with the slew of earnings information coming out over the next few weeks. -Appo Agbamu, CFA What our models say… Week-over-week change: 04/06/2020 vs. 04/13/2020 Ahrvo Score (Overall Score) 1)Utilities (no change) 2)Technology (no change) 3)Consumer Staples (no change) 4)Industrials (no change) 5)Financials (no change) 6)Consumer Discretionary (no change) 7)Basic Materials (no change) 8)Health Care (no change) 9)Energy (no change) Momentum Score 1)Utilities (no change) 2)Healthcare (⬆️2 spots) 3)Consumer Staples (⬇️1 spot) 4)Technology (⬇️1 spot) 5)Basic Materials (no change) 6)Industrials (no change) 7)Financials (no change) 8)Consumer Discretionary (no change) 9)Energy (no change) Growth Score 1)Financials (no change) 2)Industrials (no change) 3)Technology (no change) 4)Consumer Discretionary (no change) 5)Consumer Staples (no change) 6)Utilities (no change) 7)Health Care (no change) 8)Basic Materials (no change) 9)Energy (no change) Quality Score 1)Consumer Discretionary (no change) 2)Consumer Staples (no change) 3)Industrials (no change) 4)Technology (no change) 5)Utilities (no change) 6)Financials (no change) 7)Energy (no change) 8)Basic Materials (no change) 9)Health Care (no change) Value Score 1)Industrials (no change) 2)Consumer Discretionary (no change) 3)Financials (no change) 4)Utilities (no change) 5)Energy (no change) 6)Consumer Staples (no change) 7)Technology (⬆️1 spot) 8)Basic Materials (⬇️1 spot) 9)Health Care (no change) This material is for informational purposes only. Under no circumstances should any information or materials presented be used or construed as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities, financial instruments, investments or other services. Any investment made is at your sole discretion. There are many factors that you must consider when making an investment decision, including, but not limited to, product features, risks, whether or not an investment meets your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and other personalized factors. Investing in securities involves risks, and there is always the potential of losing your entire investment .
AMEX:SPY
by AhrvoStockApp
I SPY the End of a Trend With the market closed on Friday we were left with watching the crypto markets take a dip in a less than dramatic fashion. Only left to wonder what the the stock market would have done! For a while I've been beating the drum that Bitcoin is an excellent leading indicator of the markets so it's not farfetched to think that the stock market would have dropped a bit today. I'll speak more on how Bitcoin is a leading indicator on a separate post. Here we have the AMEX:SPY . What follows is some basic Elliot wave and classical charting to assess the next market move. Image 1 : Here I want to know whether both impulses up are equal. We can see using the trend based fib extension that the SPY has yet to tap the 0.88 Fibonacci suggesting potential of further upside. Image 2: On image two, using a small timeframe, 15 min, we see a simple rising wedge formation. Normally seen when trends are stretching out and are nearing their end. I included RSI to show a normal bearish divergence. Image 3 : Putting it all together, the SPY appears to be completing a Zig Zag (5-3-5) correction. If you look closer at the ending diagonal there could be some more price action to the upside before a pull back. From my perspective the overall trend remains down as this was a corrective move to the upside. More to come in future posts from a high timeframe perspective!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DailyClose
3