BTC Phase 4 ResistanceBTC is currently testing the All time High.
Will BTC just plough through the resistance because of the ETF's or is there any other scenario possible? There is an interesting correlation and there are also key differences between the 2017 Bull Market Cycle and the current timeframe if we analyse the weekly and monthly timeframe.
Historic Cycle 2017
As BTC went through the previous resistance zones in 2017 the pattern was identical until phase 3. Back then there was heavy resistance and we had a correction to the highs of phase 2, before continuing higher.
Current Cycle 2024
In this current cycle we have not had a healthy correction to the highs of phase 2, instead prices continued to climb higher. The resistance zone for phase 3 in both cases was almost identical at around 40% under the previous All time High. As we approach the resistance of phase 4, are pricing continuing to climb higher?
Historic 86 Level Resistance
In 2017 we got rejected at phase 4 when the RSI reached the 86 Level on the Weekly timeframe.
Current 86 Level Resistance
Currently we are at the same level on the RSI. We think it is very likely that next month BTC get's rejected and we enter a correction.
Swift moves to the upside for a long periods of time are a warning sign for any asset. If BTC doesn't have solid corrections we could have a shorter bull market then expected.
Etfs
OIH: Keep Going! 👏OIH is on its way toward our green Target Zone (between $$321.09 and $339.97), nearing the last local high from the end of January. We expect the ETF to arrive in said Target Zone during the orange wave ii before the orange five-wave downward structure should continue, ultimately concluding below the support at $277.30 (but still above $250.69). Still, there is a 32% chance that the orange wave Alt.ii has already finished without reaching our Target Zone, which would be confirmed by the price dropping below $277.30 earlier.
HIMAYCUSDT - POTENTIAL SETUPThis coin is in strong bullish trend and moving in ascending channel
market is consistently printing HH's and HL's.
The price is reacting well the support and resistance of channel.
If the market successfully sustain this bullish confluence the next leg high could go for new HH.
Bitcoin Cycle Top ProjectionUsing Fib Time Zones combined with Fib Channels (both starting at the beginning of this range) I'm projecting Bitcoin's top to come March 2025 in the range of $132,000 - $144,000 .
Personally, I believe this may be THE top. Time will tell, but with the advancement of AI, the Bitcoin ETF's gaining control of a considerable amount of the BTC supply and the digital dollar vs. BRICS I see a whole change in the way we exchange value between one another.
There was A LOT of math within this, but all the time zones and each cycle's channel fall on actual fib levels.
Yes, this is much earlier than all previous cycles - which leads me to my next point...
This cycle IS different. Do you really believe now that the institutions are invested they'll give any retail investor/historic BTC trader a "good" entry?
Bitcoin's on it's run, and if you're waiting for a dip you may miss this rally...
Bitcoin is currently exhibiting a short-term bullish sentiment
Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin is currently exhibiting a short-term bullish sentiment as it approaches the 45661 order block. The recent price action suggests a potential move upward, aligning with the prevailing market sentiment.
Key Levels:
Resistance at 45661: The upcoming order block at 45661 is a critical level to watch. A breakout above this level could signal further upside potential.
Support at 30876: On the downside, the 30876 order block serves as a crucial support level. A retracement to this level may provide buying opportunities for traders.
DIA in downward trendSPDR® Dow Jones Industrial Avrg ETF Tr (DIA, $381.37) RSI Indicator left the overbought zone on January 31, 2024
This is a signal that DIA's price could be shifting from an uptrend to a downtrend. Traders may consider selling the stock or exploring put options. A.I.dvisor looked back and found 43 similar cases where DIA's RSI Indicator left the overbought zone, and in 35 of them led to a successful outcome. Odds of Success: 81%.
DIA in downward trend: price may decline as a result of having broken its higher Bollinger Band on January 22, 2024
DIA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on January 22, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 35 of the 39 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
Price Prediction Chart
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for DIA moved out of overbought territory on January 31, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 36 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 84%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DIA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on January 18, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DIA as a result. In 67 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DIA just turned positive on January 30, 2024. Looking at past instances where DIA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
Following a +0.89% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DIA advanced for three days, in 315 of 371 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 266 of 336 cases where DIA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 79%.
Support @32k?BTC is doing some crazy stuff. ETF price seemed to be factored into price already. As much as i wanna be bullish on BTC, Im still being cautious. This level is still being tested as resistance and we can see the consolidation under it 32k looks to be untested as support.
Feel free to coment or leave your thoughts
Pre halving BTC: institutional greed, chaos and orderWith less than 100 days remaining until the next halving, BTC has followed the projected trajectory. Given the buzz surrounding ETFs and the current market conditions, a pullback seems probable. The initial support rests at 36k, with the subsequent support at 32k. The initial support will probably uphold the price, so I'd suggest a 65/35 liquidity split between these two zones. Until the all-time high is broken, discussing the next bull run may seem premature, but it's important not to underestimate institutional greed and Bitcoin's inherent scarcity.
📊🚀 BTC Market Analysis 🌐💹The BTC market has undergone multiple retests of the support zone, breaking and subsequently retesting it. Price rejection has occurred multiple times within the zone, indicating a bullish sentiment at present. The approval of ETFs is also a positive factor, contributing to the potential for sustained prices above the zone. If Bitcoin continues to exhibit stability in this context, there is a possibility of a significant rally in altcoins in the near future. 🚀
#Bitcoin #ETFs #MarketAnalysis
FDIG shaping up nicelyAnything tied to crypto is all looking bullish. This ETF from Fidelity Is coming around very nicely. Nice curve with consolidation on support. With Bitcoin sliding its way up Im i would expect theses to follow Im looking for a target around 25 for the short term. Im not all the way sold on a bullish BTC yet but these etfs are a nice way to benefit from btc and cryto rallies
SPY Fly or Die Looks like Q1 2024 is going to be a pivot point. Looking at the weekly tf, The price action curve has stayed consistent over the years. Im not a big fan of alot of indicators but we can see the bullish pressure building and bump and run pattern forming, Measured move from prior LL to Prior HH giving us a target of 700. Also 127 fib ext.
I would love to see the curve tested one more time but if there is a strong break to the top side Im going long on spy
please share your thoughts
The World of ETFsIn the vast landscape of investments, Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) stand as a unique bridge, merging the best of both stocks and mutual funds. While traditional managed funds pool investors' money into assets managed by professionals, ETFs introduce a compelling twist, allowing for the flexibility of stock trading.
Unlike managed funds, ETFs are akin to stocks, enabling investors to buy and sell them at any time during market hours . This accessibility aligns ETFs more closely with the dynamic nature of stocks, catering to the on-demand needs of modern investors.
However, just like any investment, ETFs come with their nuances and risks. Diversification, often touted as an investment safety net, does mitigate some risks but can't fully shield against market volatility.
Different ETFs carry varying levels of risk, making understanding these distinctions vital before investing. Additionally, the past performance of ETFs isn't always a reliable indicator of future results, underlining the importance of comprehensive research and sound decision-making.
Bitcoin ETFs: The Gateway to Crypto Investments
In recent years, the advent of Bitcoin ETFs has added an intriguing chapter to the investment narrative. These financial instruments enable investors to engage with Bitcoin's price movements without directly owning the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin ETFs, traded on conventional stock exchanges, provide an accessible avenue for traditional investors to venture into the crypto sphere.
Within the realm of Bitcoin ETFs, there are two primary types: spot and futures-based ETFs:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs offer direct exposure to Bitcoin's real-time market price, involving the actual cryptocurrency.
On the other hand, futures-based ETFs utilize Bitcoin futures contracts, enabling speculation on the asset's future price without owning the underlying asset.
The interest in Bitcoin ETFs can be attributed to several factors. First and foremost, they offer unparalleled ease of access. Trading on mainstream stock exchanges simplifies the process, allowing investors to leverage existing brokerage accounts without delving into the complexities of crypto exchanges.
Moreover, the regulatory oversight accompanying ETFs adds a layer of security, easing concerns related to fraud and market manipulation prevalent in unregulated crypto markets.
Additionally, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs signifies a significant shift, indicating the integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional financial systems.
While the United States has yet to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF, several Bitcoin futures-linked ETFs have gained regulatory approval , broadening investment horizons.
Beyond Bitcoin: Exploring the Crypto ETF Spectrum
While Bitcoin has seized the spotlight, the crypto ETF landscape is not confined to it alone. Outside the United States, various Cryptocurrency Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) encompass a spectrum of digital assets beyond Bitcoin. These offerings enable diversification within the digital asset space, catering to investors keen on exploring a range of cryptocurrencies.
In the United States, ETFs linked to cryptocurrencies like Ether also exist, albeit in the futures-related domain. Although spot-based crypto ETFs are yet to make their debut, the evolving regulatory landscape and market demand may pave the way for these in the future.
As the financial world continues its digital transformation, understanding ETFs and their crypto counterparts becomes paramount. By bridging the gap between traditional stocks and the dynamic crypto sphere, ETFs empower investors with newfound opportunities and avenues for portfolio growth.
Stay tuned for the evolving of crypto ETFs, where the world of investments meets the future of finance.
SPY Cycle Patterns CRUSH Day Leads Bearish TrendingMy proprietary SPY Cycle Patterns are an advanced predictive modeling system based on Fibonacci, Gann, and price cycles.
The most incredible thing about these patterns is they predict future price action/trends many days, weeks, and months in advance - very accurately.
The accuracy ratio of the SPY Cycle Patterns is usually about 85 to 90%. There are times when it is wrong.
My proprietary research suggests we have entered a very dangerous new crisis phase. The SPY will likely target $404 or lower (possibly $393).
I'm posting this short video to help you prepare for what comes next.
Follow my research.
A Simple Method Of Evaluating Trade Setups For Everyone - PART IThis is a simple example of how anyone can attempt to understand price action, trade setups, and determine if the current trade setup is valid for any trading action.
Unless you have a trading system that helps you identify highly successful trade setups, most people struggle to find opportunities before they turn into breakout trends (up or down). Ideally, most traders want to get into trades before the big breakout, or breakdown, happens.
This video, part I of an extended series, will help you learn to use simple tools to identify qualified trade setups from invalid setups.
You can trade whatever you want. But remember, the trend is your friend, and learning to understand price theory, trends, channels, and support/resistance is all you need to make better decisions.
Watch this video to see if it helps you. Over the next few weeks, I'll create more videos highlighting simple techniques to help you become a better trader. I'll review dozens of charts and highlight what works and what doesn't.
Trading is a matter of managing risks while attempting to generate profits. This will be a great way for me to share my thoughts with all of you while trying to help you learn techniques to help you build solid skills.
Hope you enjoy this first video.
A Simple Method Of Evaluating Trade Setups For Everyone - IIIMore examples of trade setups and how I use my custom algos to help identify stronger trade opportunities from other symbols.
In this example, near the end of this video, I review the QLD chart (Daily) which provides a very clear example of major trend vs. intermediate trend. It is very important trader learn to see these opportunities from all aspects.
Please pay very close attention to the details I'm sharing related to trading concepts and theory. I'm trying to teach all of you to see charts in a different way. See PRICE as the driver of trends, and counter-trends, as Fibonacci Price Theory describes.
Basic Rules of Fibonacci Price Theory:
1. Price is ALWAYS seeking new highs or new lows - ALWAYS.
2. Failure to establish a new high means price will attempt to retest/break recent/new lows.
3. Ultimate HIGH/LOW levels are critical to understanding major trends vs. intermediate trends.
4. If you have trouble identifying a clear trend on a Daily chart, try Weekly or 240 min as an alternative.
5. If you still can't identify trend clearly, wait it out. Price will ALWAYS attempt to make new highs/lows. Sometimes, you have to be patient and wait for consolidation trends to work themselves out.
My objective is to show you how I look at charts and identify trade opportunities. Simply put, I just trying to help you see and understand simple TA theories and to help you learn to identify great trade opportunities.
Hope you enjoy.