anything below gap close lower daily highTRAMA is crossing below VWMA and anything under gap close likely confirmation of bear reversal for the inverse, and there are more bearish scenarios realistically than bull for this inverse.
Etfsx3
$DRV PTs 56-100 and higher 3X Bear Real Estate ETFThe fund invests in swap agreements, futures contracts, short positions or other financial instruments that, in combination, provide inverse or short leveraged exposure to the index equal to at least 80% of its net assets (plus borrowing for investment purposes). The index is provided by S&P Dow Jones Indices (the “index provider”) and includes securities of companies from the following industries: real estate management and development and REITs, excluding mortgage REITs. The fund is non-diversified.
a long running trend that may changesince the top in december trama has crossed below vwma, and both have continued down together. the rare times they have diverged bullishly and rose together have been short lived. if things are going to be different this time the trend has to abruptly change. if we get a higher low compared to 27 and we break 33 i would shoot for 40 region. this rally is for profit taking unless we continue immediately over potential neckline or if we double bottom, or bounce off of 27 region, or continue immediately over 33. return to short if we close below 24.
multiple scenarios for mondaydepending how futures market plays out tonight and if people keep buying a mondays open we cod have very different outcomes. the bull case is essentially if we see RSI, Double STOCH signal remain positive or if we hit resistance at gap close and continue lower or make a double bottom. even in the bull case we could rally for a couple weeks and then double bottom. bias cautiously bullish as there are more bull scenarios than bear. even the magenta path is a bull scenario for a few days. staying over TRAMA and causing VWMA to rise with it means strong support for bulls.
oversold semiconductors (SOXL)if critical support provides meaningful buy volume and we close the week near the highs then semiconductors, and the broader market could exhibit a bounce here towards lower 36s. if we see another wave of selling down at these levels were probably blowing through that support on the weekly trending toward upper 16s taking the market with it as semiconductors are a lead bear. keep TRAMA from sinking and come out of oversold STOCH and we could diverge bullishly. if things head for continuation it is likely more bearish.
welcome to the forever market, or more pain to come?tqqq is a big question because it is down a significant amount and a lead bear. if it turns into a lead bull here we could see 60% gains.
(TQQQ) breakout or bustThe chances of a daily bull pennant increases with every daily higher low we make. Holding 4500 spx es1! Emini s&p futures withstanding and moving toward the week high would the odds of getting to $64 TQQQ skyrocket. Staying over vwma and bottom anchored vwap having no qqe short entry would be very bullish. Channel break strategies say buy over rising support, sell if we break Thursdays low.
two paths for nasdaq futures (TQQQ)in reality the tech boom is to blame for this correction. if we werent in such business with the market weight we are currently there wouldnt be a need for the drawdown in buying that we are. this could obviously co tinue, but my bias is still long after the current contraction and retracement. divergence from vwma, rsi and qqe signals strategies are long, and i have to say that the weekend looks promising as long as we stay away from negative headlines. the conflict is mostly priced in and xlv, xle, xli, utsl having a good day in relation to the rest of the market moving down shows healthy rotation, and does not spell a crash. defensive sector stock will accumulate and prices in tech will move up.
Bearish momentum should stay (TQQQ)Rsi needs to bullishly diverge further, so the drop in price should be larger. There's really little room to judge this as a lower low that could hold. Around 40 is an area that might induce bullish activity. I wouldn't look for a long entry right now, but there will be one eventually. This is damage that will last up to the monthly.
Vwma has turned down, and qqe is still short.
.618 retracement seems like its a buy for broader markets (SPXL)109.56 would be a great higher low to put in if we get bounce into the end of the week. i trust that if we keep cloaing over 105 on the daily that we will be back up at 123 in a couple weeks time.
this is big (TQQQ)i see a full recovery if broader market bulls can continue this turn around. should we find ourselves in a position where melt up is taking place, i think we have no choice but to go with that. the daily picture is shaping up in bulls favor, but the smart thing to do is wait for confirmation of the trend change.
seems a lot like volatility has returned as the norm (SPXL)theres a chance that getting back to all time highs may take a lonh time, and when we get there we may be heading into another drop. if volatility has returned as the new norm there is a lot of evidence to suggest that we wont see a stronger market than 2021 until at least 2023. should we make a second break to the downside whether it is sooner or later a touch of vwma monthly is not unthinkable.
oil could resume the boom (GUSH)wti is still in a weekly uptrend, and that could mean bulll
ish business for GUSH.
i think every time we hit a bottom in monthly oil futures we experience a period of upside with extreme volatility until that pattern of lower weekly highs during reversal breaks on the daily.
we are just near treating VWMA as support.
nasdaq bear making moves under week highs (SQQQ)generally this etf is going one direction: down, but the weight may be lifted off its shoulders briefly as calls expiring next week are eliminated. if we cant break to new intraday highs i would imagine sqqq has one last trip above 40 only to get sucked back to vwma.
consecutive forecast for weeks ahead (TQQQ)i think we will see a lower high, followed by a lower low, but we will stay over the .382, and then continue higher
every period of volatility that dried up quickly or was extenuating in nature was v shaped, and every period that was more exaggerated or corrective in nature was cypher shaped.
we could bull cypher with a touch of support, but if we break it things will get much more serious quite quickly. if we break the 0 of extension the picture will clear up greatly for nasdaq bulls.
sundays session should be bullish continuation, and we should open higher monday and then begin the flush to new lows middle of the week of the 6th, unless we immediately continue higher over 59
utilities showing RHS (UTSL)reverse head and shoulders may prove defensive sector stocks may be putting in a bottom. these may do well over the weekend as pros, sm, mm, tutues, and some retail may look to these to provide value when rotation is taking money out of growth.
target 33.33 and 33.97
stop loss 32.89 as this would mean a probable touch of bottom anchored vwap band after a break of the mean.
nasdaq futures at resistance, could beat it (TQQQ)this is simple. were at the major resistance in nasdaq furures. if we stay over the .382 of fib trend extend we will probably bull flag, and this could mean we see the 0 of that pattern quite soon (around $55.94)
stop loss around 52.89 as this would mean we need a retest of major support.
failing double top or continuation (UVXY)if we fail the double top, and break 18.34 confirming a downtrend with a lower high, or immediately continue bear vix, im fine with selling volatility here.
if we immediately continue over 19.17, or we set a higher low over the .382 of the bounce and break the high i would stay long vix for the time being if multiple sectors are continuing to make new lows simultaneously.
vix looks like such a tempting bull trend on many larger timeframes. the weekly is shaping up to be a great reversal from lows, but indices also look equally extended though to the downside.
vix threatening to reverse (UVXY)we are at a critical level in UVXY where oscillators like rsi are making a same low while the price has decreased somewhat.
we should see a bounce some time in the following week (SPXL)i really want to stress that i am not saying the daily/weekly trend is going to change right back to bull.
with that said, i think there is money to be made long over the next week, as long as futures sunday dont have the craziest bear session since corona.
some shorts are going to cover on the next drop, and this is going to cause a small squeeze.
i dont think all time highs are in the cards yet for broader market bulls. i do think 106 and 119 are reasonable targets. rsi is diverging bullishly, and dipping into the high teens would signal oversold conditions.
i realize this differs from my SPY forecast. that is a long term forecast on an unleveraged asset. i am using different strategies for different instruments.
qqe long entry signal should be due soon, although there have already been 3 signals that only led to small bounces, and not a return to a bull trend since the top.
crossroads for vix (uvxy)we have reached another crossroads for vix, and thus one of my favorite etfs: UVXY.
if we hold mid to high 11s the we could be up at mid 12s by friday
if we keep breaking to new lows today and tommorow then we could be back down in the low 11s by the middle of next week.
nq1! over night will shape the week (tqqq)nasdaq futures are looking pretty troubled right now, and if we see a large enough gap down and break last weeks low this could spell out further weakness in the index which could last into march
volume has refused to drop off, and if we see another spike it will probably be selling
taking out fridays high probably opens the gate to $76, and additional volatility likely will take us on another trip back to $66
somewhere ina that range is the perfect hourly oversold condition to dip buy, and touch of aavwap/vwma without follow through is usually pretty good resistance to topfish
tightening range should break soon (spxl)looking for prices above 145.5 or below 144.6 if we break out of this pattern of higher lows and lower highs in the s&p500
