ETHUSD Futures (ETHUSD ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: ETHUSD Futures (ETHUSD ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 1706.80
Pivot: 1617.35
Support: 1335.70
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the overlap support at 1335.70.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back up towards the resistance at 1706.80, where the previous swing high is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ETH-USD
ETHUSD Potential For Bearish Drop | 13th February 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell stop entry at 1491.44, to ride the bearish momentum. Stop loss will be at 1546.84, where the overlap resistance is. Take profit will be at 1338.20, where the overlap support is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
still following the ruleI'm still going with the same pattern drawn out over a week ago. For a healthy retracement its typical to see the .618 get hit before any major movement.
always a chance of pushing upward a bit but just to snag some stops.
in my last post i posted about having a buystop above $1680 and i removed mine knowing that ETH has a tendency to follow the pattern snag those stops and then run away with the money.
and i find that when i post it has even more tendency to hit those exact numbers i list then again run the other way so i pulled my buystop, and im waiting for a lower buy.
Maybe ETH will push to $1587 then continue downwards but now eyes are on other coins moving around.
Like any other altcoin bitcoin tends to control a majority of them but i am looking into a scaling in on a coin MINA/USD.
Nearly 33% gains in 24hrs, but a lot more potential. We all can agree ETH will reach new highs in the upcoming years but these big coins need some retracement to keep them as stable and reliable as they are.
Have fun with it, be smart and know everyone's trading with the same rules..... except FTX
US CPI playbook – trading the marquee event risk on the calendarTime: 15 Feb 00:30 AEDT / 14 Feb 13:30 GMT
The economist's median estimate (we consider to be the consensus) – core CPI is eyed at 5.4% (down from 5.7% in Dec), with headline CPI eyed at 6.2% (from 6.5%).
*The Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast model currently sits at 5.6% YoY.
Also consider there will be some tweaks to the BLS CPI weightings today, so I will update the consensus call on Monday – as the economist’s model may change.
Looking at options pricing I see higher implied volatility and expected movement for the US CPI print than any other economic data release – the market expects big movement. For traders these volatility events offer opportunity, but also, it’s a risk that needs to be managed, and we decide whether to add exposures over such events, hedge, reduce or even exit.
We manage risk – and depending on the strategy applied, we cut loss early, yet try to extract as much juice out of our winning trades as possible. The US CPI print is a risk and for those who can’t trade the late EU/US trading session, there are disadvantages to not being in front of the screens, so that one can react in real-time – this should be a consideration.
If we think about the psychology of the market and ultimately the expected direction in US inflation trends, it is one where CPI is expected to fall back towards the Fed’s target – core CPI is what the market is putting more weight on (over headlines CPI) and ultimately, it's going the right way.
However, anything that has us questioning that consensus vision would cause a shock, certainly from a positioning perspective, and as we all know uncertainty creates volatility.
So a hot CPI print would challenge that consensus view and the market position – especially when the Fed is openly warming to signs of a disinflationary period.
What is hot?
Any number which threatens the market consensus – so a 5.7% CPI print and indeed above would be enough to cause a big move higher in the USD, and cause growth equity (such as NAS100/tech), the AUD, and gold to be hit. A number above 5.7% would be a surprise and naturally, the higher that print proves to be, the greater the extent of the move in risky assets.
Rates review – what’s priced into the interest rates market – we look at the pricing for the next FOMC and the step up (in basis points) per meeting,
A big number should see the implied probability of a 50bp hike in the 22 March FOMC meeting rise to c.40%. We’d see the peak fed funds pricing move from 5.15% to a 5.25%-5.30% range. The USD would rally hard, and risk assets, such as NAS100, crypto and AUD would fall hard.
What is weak?
If the consensus is on the money, then this would be the fourth fall in a row where YoY price pressures have eased – the market's projected path for inflation is validated, and we all breathe a sigh of relief.
With that in mind, the market may offer some margin of error on an upside surprise, that is, if the print is lower than 5.7% (last month’s print) – of course, we’ll look at the components within the CPI basket and look for trends that offer a higher probability of a change in direction in price pressures. – but while a CPI print around 5.5% to 5.6% is above consensus, it is still a fall, and therefore traders may look to sell rallies in the USD.
A print below 5.3% would be a surprise and should see rate hike expectations for the March FOMC fall from 26bp to 20bp and peak pricing for Fed hikes pulling back to around 5%. Here, the USD would fall, most prominently vs the NOK, AUD, and NZD. Gold and commodities would rally and the NAS100 would rally strongly.
USDJPY would be interesting as this comes on the same day as the new BoJ governor nominees are announced – so the JPY may have its own issues to work through.
In times like this we ask - where is the pain trade? I’d argue the market would be more surprised by an upside surprise than a downside surprise – the real pain would come if inflation didn’t fall and stayed at 5.7%. Those not short risk in any great capacity is desperate to see the vision of lower inflation take hold – let's see if it plays out.
ETHUSD Futures (ETHUSD3 ), H4 Potential for Bearish DropTitle: ETHUSD Futures (ETHUSD3 ), H4 Potential for Bearish Drop
Type: Bearish Drop
Resistance: 1725.81
Pivot: 1631.33
Support: 1353.54
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD3 is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. If this bearish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the overlap support at 1353.54.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back up towards the resistance at 1725.81, where the previous swing high is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ETHUSD Potential For Bearish Drop | 10th February 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell limit entry at 1608.91, where the overlap resistance is. Stop loss will be at 1699.66, where the recent high is. Take profit will be at 1338.20, where the overlap support is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
ETHUSD Futures (ETHUSD! ), H4 Potential for Bullish ContinuationTitle: ETHUSD Futures (ETHUSD! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Continuation
Type: Bullish Continuation
Resistance: 1774.90
Pivot: 1652.00
Support: 1605.52
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 1774.90, where the intermediary high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to towards the support at 1605.52, where the previous swing low is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
ETHUSD Potential For Bullish Rise | 8th February 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.
Looking for a buy limit entry at 1648.84, where the overlap support is. Stop loss will be at 1605.00, where the recent low is. Take profit will be at 1789.86, where the intermediary high is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
ETHUSD is in consolidation, potential to swing high Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is slightly bullish, the strong ascending trend line has been created. Looking for buy entry at 1568.23, take profit at 1714.34 which is the recent swing high, and stop loss at 1501.39 which is the recent swing low.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
ETHUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 16th January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a retracement buy entry at 1503.36, where the 23.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be placed at 1347.62, where the 61.8% Fibonacci projection line is. Take profit will be at 1677.00, where the previous swing high is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
ETHUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 13th January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a retracement buy entry at 1347.62, where the previous high is. Stop loss will be placed at 1238.76, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 1546.28, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
ETHUSD Potential for Bullish Rise| 12th January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a retracement buy entry at 1347.62, where the previous high is. Stop loss will be placed at 1238.76, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 1546.28, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
ETHUSD Potential for Bullish Rise| 11th January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market. Looking for a buy stop entry at 1351.87, where the previous high is. Stop loss will be placed at 1234.20, slightly above where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 1479.94, slightly above where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
ETHUSD Potential for Bullish Rise| 10th January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market.
. Looking for a buy limit entry at 1272.01, slightly below where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be placed at 1234.20, slightly below where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 1351.87, where the previous swing high is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
ETHUSD Potential for Bearish Drop| 9th January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bearish due to the chart being overall bearish on the larger timeframe , indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell limit entry at 1304.82, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be placed at 1374.85, slightly above where the recent swing high is and liquidity is. Take profit will be at 1182.99, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line and liquidity hotspots are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
ETHUSD Potential for Bearish Drop| 6th January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bearish due to the chart being overall bearish on the larger timeframe , indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell stop entry at 1238.76, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be placed at 1351.87, where the recent swing high is. Take profit will be at 1073.42, where the recent swing low is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
ETHUSD Potential for Bearish Drop| 5th January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bearish due to the chart being overall bearish on the larger timeframe , indicating a bearish market. Price has tapped into my sell entry at 1238.76, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and previous high is to clear the liquidity. Stop loss will be placed at 1351.87, where the recent swing high is. Take profit will be at 1073.42, where the recent swing low is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
ETH is DEAD 2023!!!Ethereum price analysis shows a downward trend.
ETH has retreated from its two-day high of $1,219.
ETH is consolidating above $1,200, with a bearish tilt.
According to a recent Ethereum price analysis, the price of ETH has been bouncing in a very narrow range over the last few weeks. Ethereum has had a minor reversal today after a two-day run that saw the cryptocurrency briefly rally near $1,250 resistance.
Over the last two weeks, the price of Ethereum has been fluctuating in a band between $1,200 and $1,250. The bulls have failed to clear the critical barrier at $1,250 convincingly, and ETH/USD may potentially fall toward the $1,150 support level.
The overall market mood continues to be pessimistic, with ETH slipping below the 20-day moving average.
Ethereum is currently at $1,209.94, a 0.75 percent decrease from its two-day high of $1,219. The bulls must defend the $1,170-$1,180 support zone to commence a new rally toward $1,250.
A strong close below $1,170 may pave the way for a further slide toward the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, which are both at $1,100. The bulls must break above $1,250 to initiate a new rise in ETH/USD.
Ethereum price analysis on a daily chart reveals that ETH has been consolidating in a range above the $1,200 support. However, it has dropped out of the content in the last few hours. If the bears can sustain the price below $1,170, a more significant drop toward $1,100 is likely.
To begin a new upward trend, Ethereum must break over the $1,220 barrier. The overall market attitude is adverse, and bulls must generate momentum above $1,200 and $1,220 to sustain the price above essential supports.
On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index is below 50, indicating a bearish trend in ETH/USD. The MACD is also in the negative area, implying that ETH will suffer further losses in the short term.
Conclusion of Ethereum price analysis
Finally, Ethereum price analysis indicates that ETH/USD may continue erratic and range-bound until it finds a definite direction. On the downside, if the bears can break through the $1,170 support level, a larger drop toward $1,100 is likely. On the plus side, the bulls require to break above $1,220 and $1,250 levels to start a fresh increase.
ETHUSD Potential for Bearish Drop| 4th January 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ETHUSD is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. Looking for a pullback sell entry at 1238.76, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and previous high is to clear the liquidity. Stop loss will be placed at 1351.87, where the recent swing high is. Take profit will be at 1073.42, where the recent swing low is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.