ETHBTC Channel Down but how long before it takes off?The ETHBTC pair is trading within a Channel Down pattern on the 1W time-frame, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) its key Resistance basically since the March 2023 sell-off. What's new though is that after this week's bearishness, it is approaching the 1W MA200 fast.
This coincides with the ETH's previous Bear Cycle bottom. That could be the test level before the price rebounds and really takes off breaking finally above that Channel Down. The current trend is bearish but you wouldn't want to bet on it too long.
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Ethereum-bitcoin
Market Update - October 6, 2023
Bitcoin and ether have another rollercoaster week: Following a pop early in the week as the US Congress narrowly avoided a government shutdown, bitcoin and ether were up and down, settling around $27.5k USD and $1,600 USD, respectively, by Friday.
Sam Bankman-Fried’s saga continues as trial starts: SBF’s criminal trial began this week in New York City. In opening statements, the defense argued that “Sam didn’t defraud anyone,” while the prosecution described SBF’s crypto empire as a “house of cards … built on a lie.” The trial is expected to last up to six weeks.
Ether futures ETFs go live for trading: The first ether (ETH) futures-based exchange traded funds (ETFs) were launched on Monday by VanEck, ProShares, and Bitwise Asset Management. The total volume traded on the first day of launch came in just under $2 million USD.
Judge rejects SEC’s attempt to appeal Ripple ruling: The SEC faced a setback this week as a federal judge dismissed its bid to appeal the highly publicized Ripple ruling that deemed XRP sold on public exchanges is not a security. XRP rallied over 5% following the news.
Hiring slows in September, lowering interest rate hike expectations: Employment data from ADP showed far fewer private sector jobs were added in September than expected, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index slowed slightly for September. Expectations for another interest rate hike in November now sit around 20%.
➡️ Read more here
Why ETH bulls are in danger...Hi Traders,
when will ETH hit moon? 🌔
Will ETH in general be able to hit new highs? Thats the big question.
Right now from technical point of view we have bad news for the bulls...
Here are some Short Indications and some points that can make hope...
Short Indicators:
1. Trendline Break - the long trendline was broken with massive Volume and movement on 17th August
2. Lower Highs / Lower Lows - as you can see in the chart we have now made a lower low and also the highs are frequent getting lower. Clear indication for downward trend
3. Moving Average - the price is below EMA200 which is a Short indication as well.
Hope for the Bulls:
But we have also some points which can make the bulls hope...
1.Support
The Zone at $1600 which is a massive support zone is still valid and not broken. As long as we do not break this zone this is quite good
2. Bitcoin Halving
As you might know next year the BTC will halve and mining rewards will half. Less supply with likely same ore even more demand will then cause massive rise of Bitcoin . If this will be the case then ETH will also likely rise - as 2nd biggest Cryptocurrency.
There is always be a correlation of Bitcoin and Altcoins.
Conclusion:
Right now ETH is technically hit. But as long as $1600 does not break there is a chance that a positive newsflow can cause a reversal.
If the $1600 breaks a short breakout trade would be a option to think of.
Wish you all good Trades!
Team tegasFX
Margin Bloodbath as BTC ImplodesHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
One of the most important parts of trading is following the macro phase and planning your trades. The only way to do this, is to pre-identify the macro market cycle that's currently playing out. Why am I reminding you of this? Well, because despite the recent liquidations, we are still in a CRYPTO BULL MARKET.
Bitcoin recently dropped to around 25K from a previous 30K ish. This caused a significant drop in the value of cryptocurrencies across the board, but micro caps didn't plummet as hard. Traders lost an estimated $1 billion in liquidations in a 24-hour period. This sell-off was one of the most severe downturns for digital assets this year. And yet, according to the macro , things are looking extremely bullish for smaller cap altcoins. Most smaller cap altcoins have not plummeted as hard as BTC and the other top alts by market cap. This means that the liquidity could possibly go into micro cap coins next.
(Liquidation is when an exchange closes a leveraged trading position due to a partial or total loss of the trader's initial margin. This happens when the trader is unable to meet the margin requirements for the position, or when the price of the asset falls below a certain level. Margin trading is a type of trading where traders borrow money from an exchange to buy more assets. This allows traders to amplify their profits, but it also increases their risk of losses. The liquidations that occurred during the sell-off were caused by traders who were forced to sell their Bitcoin positions due to margin calls. A margin call is a notification from an exchange that a trader must deposit more money into their account to cover potential losses. If the trader does not deposit the required funds, the exchange will close their position, which can lead to losses.)
The Bitcoin price drop was unexpected, but so far the support zone around 25K holds well.
My strategy at the moment is the same as it was before this bloodbath; I won't touch BTC or the top 10 by market cap, especially not with leverage trades . Instead, I will continue to seek out under valued micro caps and accumulate for the next altrun.
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ETHBTC looking strong and ready to rallySince BTC topped around 31k, ETH has outperformed BTC. It looks like ETH is slowly gaining more and more, as more ETH is being slowly burned through EIP-1559 and more ETH is being staked. As ETH outflows since the Shapella upgrade have peaked and inflows are dominating, ETH now has a yield of about 5%; ETH looks more attractive than BTC.
Of course, BTC has its upcoming halving less than a year from now, and recently Ordinals have given Bitcoin new life. As gold was rallying, the digital gold narrative was also more robust. However, Ethereum has seen its Layer 2 protocols gain more and more traction while AI stocks are pumping like crazy and gold is dumping. Essentially flexible tech is preferred to stable and inert metals.
ETHBTC has almost completed a breakout, as it hasn't fully reclaimed all key diagonals and the yearly pivot. It has reclaimed all critical support, penetrated the 0.06-0.066 area, which I was expecting to happen for a while, and is now looking solid.
Someone could go long now, with a stop loss below 0.064 or waiting for the full breakout. Someone could wait before going long for BTCUSD and ETHUSD to have a failed breakdown by hitting 25700$ and 1720$, respectively.
We Called The ETH/BTC Pump!Looking at our chart, we see that Ethereum started getting oversold near the bottom of our standard deviation bands, along with an oversold reading on our new DVO indicator. This, combined with the oversold green X's we received (combination of multiple indicators), and our dark blue candles (another oversold indication), led us to have a VERY successful ETH long!
The next resistance we're looking at is $1915. This has been a big level on the daily chart and may provide a rejection once reached. You can also see our candles starting to get overbought (turning orange). Once they turn red, that's when I start looking to completely exit or take a majority of my profits.
If you're looking to buy on a pullback, watch the $1715 level. That acted as great support over the past few weeks and could provide a good R/R if we reverse here.
With BlackRock recently applying for a Bitcoin ETF and many other banks following suit, the crypto market is about to get a whole lot crazier!
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Altcoins' Downturn & Bitcoin's Unmatched SupremacyLet's cut to the chase. As an advanced analyst, I see a cataclysmic drop in altcoins on the horizon (obviously). This isn't just a hunch; my trusted charts reveal a looming dive to super low levels. Even stable-coins like tether, which often a safe haven, are part of this story, affecting the Total2 index. Stable coins make up about 120 billion dollars (20% of Total2) as of June 13, 2023.
But don't worry! Bitcoin stands tall amidst this chaos. It's the clear leader, shining in technical prowess and visuals. Altcoins, in comparison, are garbage securities which just don't measure up.
As altcoins lose steam and get sued to zero, I see money moving back into Bitcoin, further solidifying its top spot. In short, brace for an altcoin shake-up, stay prepared, and always trust the charts. Especially mine. Not these SCAM ARTISTS who know ASBOLUTELY NOTHING about financial markets.
See my inverse - Bullish Bitcoin idea linked below...
$BTC -Facing Debt CeilingBITMEX:XBT is fighting to maintain it's uptrend after facing resistance on 200EMA, with the nearest below support coming at 25.000$ Level Zone ;
(CHoCH + 0.618 Golden Zone)
Breaking the recent HigherLow at 25.785 $ will confirm more the Triangle breakdown
and the loss of S/R zone.
For now, this level is a small CHoCH of the previous low inside S/R zone of 26.5K
Looking it from a broader persperctive ,
Bitcoin's Uptrend remains intact from FTX's low of 15K,
as long as the the 19.300$ Higher Low is Violated through a Break Down with massive Sell Volume
'X' date of Debt Ceiling is approaching with the welcoming of June,
while just recently Secretary Janet Yellen stated that US might have reached is
Debt Peak Climax.
Will US once again intervene saving the markets by expanding M2 ?
Or will their Debt Monopoly Game be put in stop and the Imminent Crash is coming
for Financial Markets ?
TRADE SAFE
*** Note that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor
before partaking on any trading activities based soly
upon this idea .
ETHBTC: targeting the top of the Channel Down.ETHBTC is consolidating right now on neutral 1D technicals (RSI = 55.810, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 53.149) supported by the HL trendline. A bounce on the 1D MA50 would be ideal for a new buy, but if it breaks the trend turns bearish. Until it does, we are bullish, targeting the 0.9 Fibonacci (TP = 0.07200) as it happend on January 2023. But of those where the bullish waves inside a long term Channel Down.
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ETHBTC showing upside to come to 0.08 due to W and TriangleW Formation has formed on the ETH/BTC pair.
There is also an Ascending Triangle, with higher lows and same highs.
We are near the neckline where the price is quite likely to break up and out of.
We have other signs like
7>21 MA
Price>200 MA
RSI>50
Target is for the ETH/BTC to head to 0.08
For those that don't know how it works...
HOW ETH/BTC works
ETHBTC is a trading pair similar to Forex pairs.
With crypto, it represents the exchange rate between Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC).
And as always with trading pairs, there is a primary and secondary coin.
The primary (Ethereum) is how much 1 unit of ETH can be exchanged for a certain amount of Bitcoin.
ETH/BTC
1 / X No. bitcoins.
Right now, the current ETH/BTC exchange rate is 0.06.
This means, 1 ETH is worth 0.06 BTC.
Or conversely, we can see how much 1 BTC is worth in ETH.
To do that we divide the two.
BTC/ETH = 1/0.06 = 16.66 Ethereum per Bitcoin.
ETHBTC works based on the principles of supply and demand in the cryptocurrency market.
The exchange rate is determined by the ongoing buying and selling activity of traders on the exchange platform.
When there is more demand for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin, the ETHBTC price tends to rise.
Conversely, if there is more demand for Bitcoin relative to Ethereum, the ETHBTC price tends to fall.
Right now we can expect the ETH/BTC to go up, which means Ethereum will mostly likely strengthen in the near future compared to Bitcoin.
Hence I expect the price to go to ETH / BTC = 1: 0.08.
eth/btc I see in next months some dangerous moves will happen in crypto market. BINANCE:ETHBTC is going up. and all whales are taking all Ethereum in exchanges. I Think all market will going up , but bitcoin will gonna down , and we will see almost a Flipping in market. But no one can take bitcoins place in world. that will hard for bitcoin. but bitcoin have to be success.
ETHBTC Potential bullish break-out of the 9 month Falling Wedge.The ETHBTC pair has been trading within a long-term Falling Wedge pattern since September 2022 and currently it is testing its top. This is also where the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is, so we can potentially have a double bullish break-out.
The 1W RSI has already broken above its 9-month Channel Down, issuing the first signal. If the price does break and close above the top of the Falling Wedge, we will target every Resistance level all the way to the 0.08560 High and buy on every pull-back. As you see the Fibonacci retracement levels match well with those Resistance levels, which are basically the Lower Highs of the Falling Wedge.
If the price fails to close above the Falling Wedge, then a potential rejection can pull it all the way down to the 0.06200 Low.
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ETHUSD → Price strengthens and breaks resistance ETHUSDT exists within an uptrend bounded by resistance and support. For a long time the cryptocurrency pair was under the pressure of local resistance, which was broken yesterday.
The price breaks MA-50 and on another retest of the resistance the pair breaks through the resistance and exits the range, after which it forms a consolidation above the line.
If the bulls hold the price in the new channel, the coin will begin its strengthening.
The last few days the activity on the market is increasing, and we can assume that it all happens against the background of the economic fundamentals regarding the dollar index.
The moving averages are acting as support. The MA-200 coincides with the lower boundary of this uptrend channel, confirming the support line.
Strong support: 1880, 1846, 1775.
Strong resistance: 1920, 1941, 2021.
I expect that under the pressure of the bullish trend and sentiment, ETHEREUM will continue to 2021 followed by a breakout and strengthening to channel resistance.
Regards R. Linda!
ETHBTC Bullish Cross completed on 1W. Rally ahead.The ETHBTC pair has been trading inside a Triangle pattern for almost a year (since the June 13 2022 Low). For the past 3 weeks the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting while the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) has been the Resistance since January 21 as the price has failed to close a 1D candle above it (having 3 clear rejections on it).
The key difference here is the formation of a Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD. In the past 12 months, this has always been a Buy Signal. We are buying and targeting the 1D MA200, and if it closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA200, we will extend buying towards the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
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$ETHUSDT: Bird's eye viewTime@Mode can capture very profitable trends with incredible accuracy and very low risk, at times catching the bulk of returns in a given market, while sidestepping the volatile uninteresting periods.
To do this, you need to know the timeframe in control of the main trends in said instrument. Determining the Timeframe in control means finding the timeframe that explains the recent trend swings in the cleanest way possible.
If you follow crypto markets, you might want to be aware of these trends, and when they trigger, to be able to capture the biggest swings in a painless manner, and stand aside when things become tough and unforgiving (like they have been since basically April 2021).
This analysis breaks down the monthly trends in Ethereum and shows what to look for to capture the next bull run effectively. See the annotations in the chart to know what we have to look for here during the month of May.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.