ETHEREUM -25/4/2023-• Ethereum is suffering from the overall crypto market correction
• After hitting the upper trend line of the broad ascending channel, price reversed and broke through the middle line as well indicating increasing selling pressure
• Price found some support at the lower bound of the channel
• Bulls will try to keep the price from breaking the channel even if they are not yet able to break through the middle line again
• Bears will gather their strength at a higher price and will try to break the channel
• There is no significant support below current level until 1380, which is the bears main target
• If bulls manage to defend the channel support and the market gains some momentum, they will aim to re-test the upper bound of the channel and make a new yearly high
• A break of the channel exposes 1380 and gives the bears the upper hand, weakening the bullish trend significantly
Ethereum-bitcoin
AW Crypto Market Update - Ethereum - Bitcoin - XLMThis video aims to give you an indication of where we are within the ongoing correction for each of these digital assets.
I expect to see weak price action with limited upside in these markets as the full corrections come to an end.
Once we see the momentum wane in a choppy manner, the final move in each market should lead to an inevitable blow off top.
Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader.
If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd?
Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
Digital Assets Outlook 2023Digital assets have had a strong early 2023
Digital asset prices, led by Bitcoin, have had a strong 2023 so far. Bitcoin is up by over 70% this year and Ether is up by over 50%1. Together, these two assets still account for over 63% of the total market cap of the digital assets space. While the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is still raising interest rates, the market seems to expect that the recent bank failures (Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse) will lead to central bank easing. Lower interest rates would benefit long-maturity assets, such as digital assets. Moreover, several traders have been caught off-guard and short-sellers expecting more downside in digital assets have had to liquidate positions leading to higher prices.
We believe we could be on the cusp of the fourth major bull market in crypto, although the exact timing is uncertain. Our belief is that the next bull market will be enabled by advancements in speed and scalability of the blockchain networks, more intuitive user interfaces, and innovations in blockchain wallets, as well as developments in digital identity, which will pave the way for Web3 applications. The critical determinant, of course, will be the user applications that will take the market by storm and we will keep monitoring potential candidates on a continuous basis.
Despite dismal price action last year, digital assets are supported by a healthy and vibrant software developer community. The number of monthly active developers actually rose last year by 5%2, which is significant, and confirms our view that developers remain actively engaged in their respective blockchain ecosystems.
Layer 2 networks finally coming into their own, promising to solve the scalability issue
The main impediment of current Bitcoin and Ethereum networks has been their inability to handle a large volume of transactions. It is estimated that, without a layer 2 solution, Bitcoin can only handle approximately 7-10 transactions per second while Ethereum can only handle approximately 15-30 transactions per second. While it is on Ethereum’s road map to be able to ultimately handle 50,000-100,000 transactions per second, this is not a reality at the moment. As a contrast, Visa is said to handle at least 1,700 transactions per second although there are some estimates that Visa could handle up to 24,000 transactions per second and Visa itself is claiming this number to be as high as 65,000 transactions per second3.
One way to solve the scalability issue of blockchains is to use a layer 2 network, which is built on top of a layer 1 blockchain. Layer 2 networks move transactions off-chain, roll them up and bundle multiple transactions into a single transaction, which can then be secured on the layer 1 blockchain benefiting from underlying blockchain’s security and robustness. This bundling enables faster throughput, faster settlement, and lower prices. For Bitcoin, the most well-known layer 2 solution is the Lightning Network, while for Ethereum there are several options available, including optimistic rollups, zero-knowledge rollups (ZK rollups) and sidechains. It is also worth mentioning that the Ethereum network is expected to go through so called ‘sharding’ later this year, which is expected to split the network into separate ‘shards’ thereby increasing the capacity of the network and reducing the transaction (gas) fees in the process.
Digital USD tokens emerging as a major use case
Stablecoins, digital tokens issued on public blockchains and pegged to an underlying asset, such as a currency or a physical asset, were initially used in trading and interexchange settlement but have become increasingly popular in payments and remittances. Because stablecoins are global and accessible to anyone, they offer an attractive way to cheaply and securely transmit money around the world 24/7 and settle transactions (almost) instantaneously. The world’s largest stablecoin, Tether’s USDT, is particularly popular in Asia, while in the West Circle’s USDC is widely used. Stablecoins are designed to offer stability while an asset like Bitcoin is more volatile.
To give an idea of the magnitude of transaction volumes, last year, Visa settled HKEX:12 trillion worth of payments, mainly related to consumer spending, while stablecoins settled HKEX:8 trillion worth of on-chain transactions, higher than the $2.2 trillion settled by Mastercard or HKEX:1 trillion settled by American Express4. This year, it is possible that the combined amount of stablecoin transactions exceeds the payments settled by Visa. These stablecoin transaction volumes, of course, are not related to consumer spending but rather to payments, trading and decentralised finance, and do not take into account trading volumes on centralised exchanges.
Competition for instant payments heating up
The market for instant settlement of payments seems to be in flux at the moment. Crypto regulation in both Europe and the US are focusing on stablecoins and are expected to set stringent reserve requirements for stablecoin issuers and also forbid interest being paid to stablecoin holders. We view transparency requirements into reserve assets of stablecoin issuers important but also believe that attention should be paid into issuers’ risk management, cybersecurity, and blockchain code testing quality.
In the US, the Federal Reserve is planning to launch an instant payment system called FedNow in July 2023. The network will not be based on blockchain but will be able to settle payments in seconds and can support transactions between consumers, merchants, and banks. Some believe that the closure of Silvergate’s SEN network and Signature Bank’s SigNet network in mid-March 2023, both offering instant settlement service where clients were able to move assets between fiat currencies and crypto exchanges at any time, could have had something to do with the launch of FedNow. Around the world, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are also being actively developed. They offer a digital form of a government-issued currency that is not pegged to any physical commodity and these digital currencies will continue to be based on the fractional reserve banking system.
In Europe, the European Commission adopted a legislative proposal in late October 2022 that mandates all banks to offer instant euro payments to any individual with a bank account in the eurozone. At the moment, the EU banking sector, on average, lags behind other major international markets in instant payments, although single-country solutions have been adopted and variations between countries are large. In some European countries, instant payments cover 70% of banks but, in others, only 1% of payments are settled instantly. The European banking sector has stated that they need up to two years to make banks instant-payment ready5.
Europe has its own version of an instant settlement network. BCB Group, regulated in the UK and Switzerland, offers BLINC network that links crypto companies to the banking system and enables business accounts to trade in fiat and digital assets 24/7. The company already offers fiat-to-crypto rails in sterling, euros, Swiss francs, and yen in Europe and plans to add USD fiat-to-crypto rails by early Q2 2023. BCB’s goal is to plug the gaps left by the SEN network. Unlike SEN, BLINC is multicurrency-based and is not tied to any single credit institution. It was designed as a payment institution to provide on-ramps to banks in Europe, the UK and Switzerland. The company emphasises that its funds are always 1:1 backed and are unleveraged and un-rehyphothecated6.
Sources
1 Source: Coingecko.com
2 Source: Electric Capital, 2022 Developer Report
3 Source: Visa Fact Sheet, 2022
4 Source: CoinMetrics
5 Source: Euromoney
6 Source: BCB Group, Coindesk
ETHBTC About to bottom and Ethereum to outperform?We haven't looked into the ETHBTC pair in a while but there is no better time than now, in the build up of what the market calls an 'alt season'. As you see the pair hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) this week after a strong rebound on the RSI from below the 30.00 oversold barrier. Last time that happened was on June 13 2022.
The Fibonacci levels help at identifying key Support and Resistance levels within this two year horizon very effectively. The question is, do we have one last Lower Low on the 1D RSI trend-line before ETH starts outperforming BTC again?
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Ethereum Time Based Theory {UPDATE}My time based theory is still in play, and with CPI print being released tomorrow, I think the probabilities are pretty reasonable that Ethereum is going to get extremely volatile, get close to one of these two key levels, and do so roughly around the date I have plotted with a vertical line. This theory is based on bitcoin having the same type of time based volatility over the last year. Let me know if you would like more details on bitcoins time based volatility. It is truly fascinating.
Something big is brewing with ETH?Ethereum has outperformed bitcoin in the bear market and has outperformed btc since 2020.
The price of eth-btc pair has gone sideways while bitcoin has seen a decline of over 70-75% in the last year or so.
So what is going on with ETH? On- chain statistics say a story that is quite remarkable.
A networks ability to survive does depend on its transactions , because if no one using a crypto currency for transactions - it will die.
While bitcoin's everyday transaction count on average has remained stable for over 4 years at an average of 250k transactions a day, Ethereum has continued to out perform bitcoin by 4x the number. Ethereum transaction count during the same period has sky rocketed from 300k transactions to averaging over 1.2 million transactions per day for the last 2 years. Ethereum use in every single crypto product out there speaks its own value. source : glassnode.
Thus my opinion despite the bad news is that Ethereum is not to be under-estimated.
Bitcoins current world Marketcap is 384 billion dollars.
Ethereum is valued at almost 167 billion dollars.
Ethereum is already half as valuable as bitcoin, But Ethereum is still a risky bet - It is CENTRALIZED - its product has depended on the leadership and skills of Vitalik since its inception. The SEC can declare ETHEREUM a SECURITY at any time - which makes it a risky bet still. If Ethereum is recognized as such it will create a host of problems for the entire crypto economy.
It remains to be seen what happens next - If ETHER is OFFICIALLY recognized as a security by the SEC we can forget the flippening ever happening.
Whether this sideways movement is DISTRIBUTION or further accumulation, only time will tell. I own some small amount of Ethereum in case it ever moons, but not too much to be up at night worrying about the price.
What are your thoughts? do you think Ethereum will flip bitcoin or will ether be recognized as a security which will doom a much broader crypto eco system?
AGIXUSDTI was asked today if this idea is possible. I say: Everything is possible in crypto. Taking Ethereum at $0.80 in the past and then selling at $62 was one of the biggest value builds I've seen. I also took Cardano at 0.17 and sold at $1, I took OGN at 0.33 and sold at $3. I think $10 is possible in 2023.
Well this is my idea and replying to members. great day to anyone reading :)
ETHBTC: Opportunities around the Triangle's pivot.ETHBTC is on a Triangle pattern holding for almost 5 months. The Pivot Zone around the 1D MA200 can be used as the target level for shorts near the top and longs near the bottom of the pattern.
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GBPJPY March Foresight I expect a higher than expected (bear > bull) move to the downside. Currently in a short position..nevertheless an instant breakout of current (bullish) trend, would elicit me to execute additional short orders...only upon a retest of price.
(159.994) for TP1.
Stock in Profit!
Next target 1650Hi
After drop from 3rd wave and retest the support around 1460 and one more time at the middled of ascending channel 1560.
BINANCE:ETHUSDT is going up to 1650 before move on.
Can Long/Short at lower timeframees
Hit then drop 1742, seem ETH's complete the impulse wave and everything happened after that is a correction wave.
Right now, we have a support at 1560 and resistance 1650
Wait and see what next happen
Gala To $0.058 Cents Again In The RageGala has been having tons of volatility and as of right now we're at the bottom of this channel on the 30 minute time fame. Mostly everything has taken a slight dip this morning. The short term trend is still bullish and I believe given the volatility we should see a revisit to the point of control on this range which is at around $0.058 cents. The 30 minute MACD is looking like it's setting up for a bullish divergence as well. The $0.06 cents area has been given Gala a lot of resistance so be mindful of that. Remember this is very short term much peace, love, health, and wealth!
Target: $0.058 Cents
Stop Loss: $0.055 Cents