Ethereum The Ultimate ChartHello Everyone,
This will be my chart to follow until this correction is done. It's a crazy map of resistances and supports, fib retracements and trendlines.
Right now it seems like the volume is not particularly strong, however we are still have more pressure on the downside.
We are resting the current bearish Candle on a support line, and by the looks of it we will Close below it.
Next major support is 350, which is a price i will evaluate as a entry zone, but there even a possibility that it won't hold as well. (Green Box)
What we're exactly looking for here is a high volume bounce of any of the supports in the first place, if that doesn't happen we should be looking for a spot where the price is consolidating e.g moving slowly between a point of a support and resistance point.
My impression of this chart is that we might look at 160-200€ the very bottom.
I will update my prognosis with this chart , and this will be the only chart i use until this correction is over.
Feel free to zoom out or in :) I have set my forecast for the low and high price (end of this cycle and start of the new one).
ETHEUR
ETH/EUR on track to test 78.6% Fib at 382, stay short Price action rages in 'Symmetric Triangle' pattern and we see scope for test of 'Triangle Base' and 78.2% Fib at 382 levels.
Breach at 'Triangle Base' could see further downside. Scope then for test of 88.6% Fib at 282 levels.
On the flipside, breakout above 5-DMA could see test of 20-DMA at 494. Breakout at 20-DMA invalidates bearish bias.
Support levels - 382 (converged trendline and 78.6% Fib retrace of 168 to 1168 rally), 370 (March 18 low), 334 (Dec 8 low)
Resistance levels - 422 (5-DMA), 493 (20-DMA), 500
Recommendation: Good to short rallies around 400, SL: 422, TP: 382/ 370/ 335
What's going to happen to ETH?Here are my thoughts on ETH for 2018.
There is an ongoing linear growth since 2017. The linear growth was left 3 times but then returned back to linear support forming a flag pattern. After the flag we had a huge breakout to a new all time high.
So right now we might be in the beginning of another flag-pattern wich ends at the end of 2019 where another huge breakout might happen.
Are we going to see the same in 2018?
Feel free to comment I would like to discuss this idea and see wether you agree or not.
We are waiting (ETH)Looks like a breakout is likely to happen around mid april/early may. This can go both ways but i have my reasons to be still be bullish despite the current price action.
Right now we are moving down in a wedge.
This is likely to break to the upside when reaching the lower end, we might hit the closest resistance point and consolidate/slowly move down again.
However we should note that the pattern isn't exactly of a symmetrical triangle but rather resembles it a bit, as we have not made contact with the lower end of the uptrend channel more than once, this is making me think that we could be extending the dowtrend a bit more outside the pennant and make contact with the uptrend line and get closing candle at least twice before we get any real confirmation of anything.
There is a a general bearish sentiment, and we are still in a downtrend but i think that we can hit a reversal sooner rather than moving down to the beginning of the uptrend e.g moving down to the major support line(s) - blue lines.
So now we are waiting... And don't jump to any conclusions to fast, acknowledging that we are still under the bears control and trade with caution, Scalp trading with small position is best here before going in for a big long.
ETH will go down once moreIn the last days we had ETHEREUM touch the linear support formed by 2017 developement.
Though I was hoping we might be through with the bears ETH didn't get the momentum yet it needs to reverse the trend.
What we see now is another head and shoulders pattern wich takes some time but then I think we're going to see another drop.
Don't be fooled and invest now. Wait for the next dip wich will bring us again good below 400 maybe even to 360 again wich then would form a double bottom as a clear sign for reversal of the trend.
What do you think?
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All trades on your own risk.
ETH LongDisclaimer- This is how I see the market and how I trade. I do not give out any trading advice. You are the only responsible person for your trading.
After a false breakout of a SHS pattern the Triangle breakout came true (SHS not drawn). We also have a completed bullish Bat pattern, and are now at a support structure. Another Bearish Bat pattern in the making. RSI confirm the turning point with a divergence. This is 3 confirmation for a bullish strategy.
A personally note- I think we see the harmonic pattern are right on the spot on almost every crypto pair, because we don't really have anything else for historic data. So when we see it, we all agree on it, and that is self emphasizing, thus it's also marked psychology. But be careful, there is also many manipulations in the market.
ETH Large & HS = Fake??Hello everyone!
I guess most of you have seen this pattern, the very large Head and Shoulders (continuation/bearish) pattern. It's a beast that has a target of below 100€.
However, I'm almost certain that it won't break down to those levels (but who knows) my bet is however that it won't.
My idea right now is now to keep my eyes on a few price levels for confirmation(s) and give me a hint on how far this can go.
I mentioned around 500 earlier, this was a very conservative target in hindsight even though we have not moved very much since.
For those who have seen my chart "Direction without Decision" there are two "X" at support levels, my idea was that every X that got violated would produce a test of the next support below.
This is looking like a continuation of that happening right now.
So, next support is at 500, and I believe that it's going to get tested soon.
A failure to maintain a price above 500 would open the door to complete, and see if there is any validity to the very large H&S in play.
The neckline for the pattern is at around 460, if the price reaches there, the next lookout would be 425-405. If the pattern shows validity we would see a volume spike that would pierce that important price range.
At this point, we don't really have much to go on except that the long term support has been very solid around 240-300 range.
So, keep your eyes peeled at 425-460 as those are key levels that will decide our direction in the coming months.
Roof/Bottom - Consolidation ahead? (ETH)Hello everyone !
As i said, when my targets were met i would go back and look at the chart again to reevaluate the situation. Anyone who took a long position right inside my zone should still be careful as we still have a possibility of more decline ahead of us, so manage your risks.
Let's tackle my previous post and try to make a more in depth read on the current price action and talk about my last suggestion for a long entry.
Looking at my previous chart we saw the following.
A) We made the jump as i predicted from the "breakout zone, and it got rejected down as expected and pierced the support it previously bounced off.
B) We got a smaller bounce off the second support right below it.
C) However, it did not get far and almost instantly got rejected down to my long entry zone.
This was exactly how i expected and predicted it to play out, the problem for me was the pace and the volume behind it.
As you can see in this chart, the steepest drop we got was the one touching the purple trendline, which extends far back which was the bottom of my entry zone in my last post.
But I must say that I'm not entierly sure that it's going to hold, however we could definitly see a surge to the yellow dashed roof before further decline, but resistance has been building up there while we were fighting to maintain what we have so the chances are getting slimmer as we are riding on bearish waves down now.
Based of long term trendlines, and fibonacci retracements/resistances i have found a hotspot which is very appealing and carries less and is more precise.
500€ is the place , however, the effect of reaching that exact price, could also accelerate selling further, but who knows the exact bottom anyway?
Chances are that your order at a exact of 500 won't get filled though. But lets see exciting times ahead!
My call on the bottom:
Absurdly low: 465-480 (Close to double bottom before we got the large bounce which we're falling off of now).
Realistic 495-515
Or - Did we hit the bottom? :)
The Decision Was Made (ETH)Hi everyone !
So we can see that the drop happened and the decision was made, this makes everything a bit easier because we at least now have a confirmation on that this is a extended downtrend wave and we can set us up properly for the next price movments.
I'm a happy bear because i always like to collect cheap ETH, and I hope you have the same mindset here.
If you don't have this mindset, you should understand that that parabolics (large price suges) always ends like this, ETH is no exception.
However, I must admit that I saw a glimmer of hope initially, but I have always remained sceptical of another big run after such movement as ETH had in the recent months.
But since we profited of it it's all good, now we profit again off the bears and people who sell in panic, but we plan ahead and execute it without hesitation.
So, this is my set up for ETH the coming weeks, i will be using my other chart to get a bigger overview along with this one.
I will update this chart when we hit key price structures.
Next validation will be at the "support & breakout zone" i see a bounce coming there, which will be rejected at the green support line acting as resistance, if that rejection happens we will revisit the support and breakout zone again, if it were to break we should go for a more in depth analysis on how to finalize our position set up.
Good luck
ETH heading to the moon?If history repeat itself, this is my vision for EHT/EUR (sorry if I didn't chart in USD, but you can alway make a conversion).
Previous cycles look pretty much the same for Ethereum. Once it touches the bottom in the next 5 to 7 days at around €550, it will start to climb up to €4200ish by the end of May.
The red dot-line is the SMA200. In the previous cycle it uses to touch the bottom a few days after ETH, then they will start an uptrend together.
Trade safe!
Ciao.
Direction without Decision (ETH)Hello Everyone!
Let's take a look at the 4h ETH/EUR chart.
From what we can see right now, it looks like the right shoulder formation is about to complete very soon.
We can see that we are currently resting against the uptrend support (dotted light blue line), if this were to get violated, we will probably see a drop directly to the green line below (Trendline Support Zone #3) - or close to the white support just below it - then a continious drop further to around the Trendline Support Zone #1.
But If we manage to climb along the uptrend support extensivly (Green Zone) the H&S will be invalidated, as we need to touch the neckline to complete the pattern.
Red Box = Price movment inside the box = confirmation.
Entry zone Green box, watch the trajectory of the reversal against support zones/trendline support zones.
ETHEUR moving to complete a wedge - beginners opinionThis is my first published tech analysis idea so please be gentle. I'm happy to hear some feedback though, I really wanna learn this stuff.
So lets jump right into it.
Looking at the 4h chart of ETHEUR we see that we broke the downward channel (red line) on 02-26. What I think to see in this pattern is a rising wedge (green deshed line) which will complete at 03-03 09:00 (very roughly).
Right now we bounced off the EMA50 (yellow line) nicely and the EMA200 (blue line) is getting closer to the top wedge line which might become the resistance till the wedge pattern completes.
You know what they say about rising wedges, we need to have a look at the bottom line. If it breaks out to the bottom the price might fall to 6.1k - 6.5k.
But if the wedge completes it might be the signal for a lift off.
Share your thoughts and leave a comment. I'm excited what you think about it. I'm very excited to get back to this in a few days, seeing what happend.
The Bull & The Bear Cross Paths POSSIBLE DANGER (ETH)Hello everyone,
Some new, outside the box thinking for the hunting trip again.
I am in a long position right now, but I didn't realize the urgency about this breakout until now.
From my findings It seems that the previous breakout attempts are linear with the first and second one that failed.
(See the blue triangle upper trendline lining up perfectly with the previous breakouts to the current breakout).
You could also spot the drop that occurred after that HS pattern that was partially formed outside the downtrend line ("The breakout(s)").
This Makes me VERY nervous when i was analyzing the current breakout, and for those who don't know what im talking about, I'm talking about the MASSIVE H&S forming (faint dashed red lines).
Sure, many have probably spotted this, but this does NOT mean it will materialize by any means, if you look at the first left shoulder thats within the red dashed line, it actually rallied up to form the current head, and now we are at the right shoulder. So we should not over read into this, but you should definitly prepare for such outcome.
So my conclusion of the current chart is that we are in a last stand with the bears, it's do or die, i don't see another option but to go back and re-test the 0.236 support if we don't rally from here.
We have a standoff and the winner will be revealed very soon, stay safe and good luck!