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Ethlong

#ETH Breakout is incoming!$ETH/USDT – Breakout Watch Ethereum is currently retesting a key descending resistance line after an extended period of consolidation. The structure suggests growing bullish momentum. 🟢 A successful breakout and daily close above the $1,900–$2,000 zone could trigger a move toward $2,200–$2,400 in the coming sessions. Watch for confirmation with volume expansion and retest behavior. Rejection at this level could delay the move, but the pressure is clearly building. Key Levels: Resistance: $1,900–$2,000 Target: $2,200–$2,400 Support: $1,800 Chart looks clean breakout potential is real. DYOR NAF BINANCE:ETHUSDT BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
Long
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
ETHUSDT - Will likely have 5 Digits by the end of 2025Ethereum has dropped 65% since December, hitting its bottom in April — that’s 5 full months in a bear market with a massive drawdown, especially for the second-largest crypto by market cap. Today, it made a strong bounce, rallying over 50% from the grey support zone, confirming that the bottom was likely in. Looking at the RSI, Ethereum has entered the oversold zone only 3 times in the last 5 years — which is another strong indication that a bottom has been reached. So what can we expect from ETH in the coming days? - Ethereum is still close to the bottom, and RSI conditions remain healthy. - Historically, the current RSI level has only occurred three times in five years. Based on this: - This bounce is likely just the beginning of a much bigger move. ETH still has a lot of upside potential. - The next key resistance is around $2,500, which lines up with both the 200 EMA and the 0.618 Fibonacci level — keep an eye on that. - Long-term, Ethereum is on track for a new all-time high (ATH).
Long
by ceciliones
5
Ether-Bitcoin Ratio Signals ETH Is 'Extremely Undervalued,' The cryptocurrency market is a realm of intricate signals, complex metrics, and often-conflicting narratives. Among the myriad indicators traders and investors scrutinize, the Ether-Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio holds a prominent place. This metric, a simple division of Ethereum’s price by Bitcoin’s price, serves as a barometer for the relative strength and market sentiment between the two leading crypto assets. Recently, this ratio has dipped to levels that historically signaled significant undervaluation for Ether, sparking debate about a potential upcoming rally. However, a confluence of factors – notably surging ETH supply, stagnant network demand, and a weakened token burn mechanism – casts a considerable shadow over this optimistic outlook, suggesting that past performance may not be a reliable guide in the current, uniquely challenging environment. Understanding the ETH/BTC Ratio: A Barometer of Relative Strength At its core, the ETH/BTC ratio reflects the market's perception of Ethereum's value proposition relative to Bitcoin. When the ratio trends upwards, it indicates that ETH is outperforming BTC, suggesting growing investor confidence in Ethereum's ecosystem, technological advancements, or utility. Conversely, a declining ratio signifies BTC's relative strength, potentially due to factors like "digital gold" narratives, safe-haven appeal, or specific Bitcoin-centric catalysts. A low ETH/BTC ratio, such as those observed in recent times, is often interpreted by analysts as a sign that ETH is "cheap" or "undervalued" compared to Bitcoin. The logic is that, over time, capital flows within the crypto market tend to seek out assets with stronger growth potential or those perceived as lagging behind their fundamental value. If ETH is indeed undervalued, the expectation is that it will eventually catch up, leading to a rally in both its USD price and its value relative to BTC. This potential for "mean reversion" or a "catch-up trade" is what excites many market participants when the ratio hits historical lows. Historical Precedents: When Undervaluation Sparked Rallies The argument for an impending ETH rally based on the current low ETH/BTC ratio is not without historical merit. There have been several instances where a depressed ratio preceded substantial upward movements for Ether. 1. Post-2018 Crypto Winter: After the ICO boom and subsequent crash, the ETH/BTC ratio languished for an extended period. However, as the DeFi (Decentralized Finance) ecosystem began to gain traction in 2020 ("DeFi Summer"), ETH, as the foundational layer for most DeFi protocols, experienced a resurgence. The ratio climbed significantly as capital flowed into Ethereum to participate in yield farming, lending, and decentralized exchange activities. 2. The NFT Boom (2021): The explosion of Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) in early 2021, predominantly on the Ethereum blockchain, provided another major catalyst. The increased demand for ETH to mint, buy, and sell NFTs pushed its price and the ETH/BTC ratio upwards, as Ethereum's utility as a platform for digital collectibles and art became undeniable. 3. Anticipation of The Merge (2021-2022): As Ethereum moved closer to its pivotal transition from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) – "The Merge" – market sentiment turned increasingly bullish. The promise of significantly reduced energy consumption, coupled with the "ultrasound money" narrative (where ETH issuance would drastically decrease and potentially become deflationary due to EIP-1559's burn mechanism), fueled strong buying pressure. The ETH/BTC ratio saw notable gains during periods of heightened Merge anticipation. In these instances, the low ETH/BTC ratio acted as a tinderbox, and specific fundamental catalysts served as the spark that ignited significant rallies. Investors who recognized the undervaluation signal and anticipated these catalysts were handsomely rewarded. This historical pattern underpins the current optimism among some analysts who see the present low ratio as a similar buying opportunity. The Complicating Factors: Why This Time Might Be Different Despite the compelling historical precedents, the current market environment for Ethereum presents a unique set of challenges that complicate the simple "undervalued, therefore rally" thesis. These headwinds stem from fundamental shifts in Ethereum's tokenomics and network dynamics. 1. Surging Supply: The Post-Merge Issuance Reality While The Merge successfully transitioned Ethereum to a more environmentally friendly PoS consensus mechanism, its impact on ETH supply has been more nuanced than initially portrayed by some bullish narratives. • Staking Rewards: Under PoS, new ETH is issued as rewards to validators who stake their ETH to secure the network. While the rate of new ETH issuance is significantly lower than it was under PoW, it is still a consistent inflationary pressure. The annual inflation rate from staking rewards is currently in the low single digits. • Net Issuance vs. Deflation: The "ultrasound money" thesis largely depended on the EIP-1559 burn mechanism (discussed later) consistently burning more ETH than is issued through staking rewards, leading to a net deflationary supply. However, this has not always been the case post-Merge. There have been extended periods where ETH has been net inflationary. • Unstaking and Liquid Staking Derivatives: The ability for validators to unstake their ETH (enabled by the Shanghai/Capella upgrade) means that previously locked supply can re-enter the market. Furthermore, the proliferation of Liquid Staking Derivatives (LSDs) like Lido's stETH or Rocket Pool's rETH, while enhancing capital efficiency, also means that staked ETH is not entirely removed from liquid circulation, as these derivative tokens can be traded or used in DeFi. This consistent, albeit reduced, issuance contributes to sell pressure, especially if demand does not keep pace. The narrative of ETH becoming a deflationary asset has been weakened, impacting one of the key bullish arguments that previously supported a higher ETH/BTC ratio. 2. Flat Demand: A Stagnant Network Picture For ETH's price to appreciate significantly, there needs to be robust demand for the token, driven by network usage and adoption. Currently, several indicators suggest that demand is, at best, flat, and in some areas, declining. • Network Activity Metrics: Key on-chain metrics such as daily active addresses, transaction counts, and total gas consumed have shown periods of stagnation or even decline. While Layer 2 scaling solutions are processing more transactions, this activity doesn't always translate directly into proportional demand for ETH on the mainnet, especially if Layer 2s manage their own fee markets efficiently. • Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi: While DeFi remains a cornerstone of Ethereum's value proposition, the growth in TVL has slowed considerably compared to the explosive growth seen in 2020-2021. Capital inflows into DeFi protocols on Ethereum have been less aggressive, partly due to macroeconomic conditions, regulatory concerns, and the emergence of competitive DeFi ecosystems on other blockchains. • Competition from Alternative Layer 1s and Layer 2s: Ethereum faces increasing competition from other Layer 1 blockchains (e.g., Solana, Avalanche, Aptos, Sui) that offer higher throughput and lower transaction fees, attracting users and developers. Moreover, Ethereum's own Layer 2 ecosystem (e.g., Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon zkEVM, Starknet, zkSync Era), while crucial for its long-term scalability, also fragments user activity and can, in some ways, reduce direct demand pressure on ETH for L1 transactions if users primarily operate within these L2 environments. • Macroeconomic Headwinds & Regulatory Uncertainty: Broader economic conditions, including inflation, interest rate hikes, and recession fears, have generally dampened risk appetite across financial markets, including crypto. Additionally, the ongoing regulatory uncertainty in key jurisdictions like the United States creates an environment of caution, potentially hindering institutional adoption and large-scale investment in assets like ETH. • NFT Market Cool-Down: The NFT market, which was a significant driver of ETH demand, has experienced a substantial cool-down from its peak in 2021-2022. While innovation continues, transaction volumes and average sale prices have fallen, reducing the ETH velocity associated with this sector. Without a significant uptick in genuine network demand – more users transacting, more capital flowing into DeFi, a resurgence in NFT activity, or new killer dApps emerging – it becomes harder for ETH to absorb the ongoing supply issuance and stage a sustainable rally. 3. Weakened Burn Mechanics: The Diminished Impact of EIP-1559 EIP-1559, implemented in August 2021, was a landmark upgrade for Ethereum. It introduced a mechanism where a portion of every transaction fee (the "base fee") is burned, permanently removing that ETH from circulation. This was a key pillar of the "ultrasound money" narrative, as it created a deflationary pressure that could, under conditions of high network demand, outpace new ETH issuance. However, the effectiveness of this burn mechanism is directly tied to network congestion and the level of the base fee. • Lower Network Congestion: In periods of lower network activity and congestion (as has been observed more frequently recently), the base fee required to get transactions included in a block decreases. A lower base fee means less ETH is burned per transaction. • Impact of Layer 2s: As more transaction activity shifts to Layer 2 scaling solutions, which have their own, typically much lower, fee structures, the demand for block space on Ethereum Layer 1 can decrease. While L2s do periodically batch transactions and settle them on L1 (consuming L1 gas and contributing to the burn), the overall L1 gas consumption directly attributable to individual user transactions might be lower than if all those transactions occurred on L1. • Periods of Low Burn: Consequently, there have been extended periods post-Merge where the amount of ETH burned via EIP-1559 has been insufficient to offset the ETH issued as staking rewards. During these times, ETH's supply becomes net inflationary, undermining the deflationary narrative that was a strong catalyst in previous cycles. While EIP-1559 remains a crucial and beneficial upgrade for Ethereum's fee market predictability, its power as a consistent deflationary force has been tempered by the current realities of network demand and the evolving Layer 2 landscape. Synthesizing the Outlook: A Tug-of-War The current situation for Ethereum is a complex tug-of-war. On one side, the historically low ETH/BTC ratio flashes a compelling "undervaluation" signal, suggesting a potential for significant upside based on past market behavior. This attracts traders looking for relative value plays and those who believe in Ethereum's long-term fundamental strengths. On the other side, the fundamental picture is clouded by persistent, albeit reduced, supply issuance, a lack of explosive growth in network demand, and a burn mechanism whose deflationary impact is currently muted. These factors create genuine headwinds that could prevent ETH from easily replicating its past ratio-driven rallies. For ETH to truly capitalize on its apparent undervaluation relative to Bitcoin, several things likely need to occur: 1. A Resurgence in Demand: This could come from a new "killer app" or narrative on Ethereum, a significant rebound in DeFi or NFT activity, increased institutional adoption (perhaps spurred by clearer regulation or new investment products like spot ETH ETFs in more jurisdictions), or a general improvement in macroeconomic conditions that boosts risk appetite. 2. Successful Maturation and Value Accrual from Layer 2s: As Layer 2 solutions mature and gain wider adoption, their success needs to translate into tangible value accrual for ETH itself. This could happen through increased L1 settlement demand, the use of ETH as a primary gas token on L2s, or innovative mechanisms that tie L2 economic activity back to the L1 token. EIP-4844 ("Proto-Danksharding") is a step in this direction by aiming to reduce L2 transaction costs, potentially fostering more L2 activity and, consequently, more L1 settlement. 3. A Shift in Broader Market Sentiment: Often, major altcoin rallies, including for ETH, occur after Bitcoin has established a strong uptrend and market sentiment becomes broadly bullish. A sustained Bitcoin rally could create a "wealth effect" and encourage capital to rotate into ETH and other altcoins. Conclusion: Caution Warranted Despite Undervaluation Signals While the ETH/BTC ratio strongly suggests that Ether is trading at a significant discount compared to Bitcoin, historical precedent alone may not be enough to guarantee a rally in the current market. The fundamental challenges posed by ongoing supply, relatively flat demand, and a less potent burn mechanism are significant and cannot be ignored. Investors and traders eyeing ETH must weigh the allure of its apparent undervaluation against these tangible headwinds. A potential ETH rally is likely contingent not just on the ratio mean-reverting, but on a demonstrable improvement in Ethereum's core demand drivers and a favorable shift in the broader market environment. The "extremely undervalued" signal is a call for attention, but thorough due diligence and a clear understanding of the current complexities are more crucial than ever. Ethereum's long-term vision remains ambitious, but its path to reclaiming relative market dominance against Bitcoin in the near term appears more challenging than in previous cycles.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
It’s ready to move!#BTC 👍👀 Daily Timeframe Volume has dropped at the end of the bullish move. Price is currently ranging in a decision zone. ✅ BTC is holding above the key 91,640 level. As long as it remains stable above this zone, there’s potential for a move toward the $100K area. ⚠️ As shown in the chart, $100K will act as a major resistance level before any attempt to reach $110K. ⚡ Meanwhile, price is testing the pivot zone around $97,400 — the same level that rejected the last bullish attempt. So far, no strong reversal signals from this zone. ❌ But if price gets rejected again, we could see a breakdown below $93,700 and a retest of the support zone around $91,640. 💵 This support needs to hold for the bullish structure to stay intact. ✅ Historically, this level has repeatedly prevented BTC from dropping toward the $77K zone. 📈 I’m currently watching for a long setup, which will trigger only after a clear breakout above 97,400. 📉 For a short position, I’ll wait for a confirmed breakdown below 91,640.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn12015359
AI Prediction ETH/USD for 24 hour! Intraday trading!May 5, 2025 6:36 pm. ETH/USD. ETH/USD Trading Plan Long Scenario - Entry: $1,815 (confirmed by Supertrend long + RSI rising above 40). - Stop-Loss (SL): $1,790 (below $1,800 support). - Take-Profit (TP): $1,840 (below $1,850 resistance). - Trailing Stop: 13 points (2x ATR). Short Scenario - Entry: $1,795 (confirmed by breakdown below $1,800 + MACD bearish crossover). - Stop-Loss (SL): $1,820 (above $1,810–$1,820 resistance). - Take-Profit (TP): $1,750 (above $1,780 support). - Trailing Stop: 13 points (2x ATR).
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Vlad_AI
AI ETH Prediction for Next 6–24 Hours!May 4, 2025 4:21 pm. ETH/USD Trading Strategy Timeframe: Short-Term (Next 6–24 Hours) Long Scenario - Entry: Break above 1833.50 (confirmed bullish momentum). - Confirmation: MACD bullish crossover + RSI > 50. - Stop-Loss (SL): 1818.00 (below support zone 1820–1825). - Take-Profit (TP): 1838.00 (below resistance 1840). - Trailing Stop: Activate at 1835.00, trail by 0.5%. Short Scenario - Entry : Drop below 1825.00 (bearish breakdown). - Confirmation: Supertrend remains short + Stochastic RSI reversal. - Stop-Loss (SL): 1836.00 (above resistance 1833.50). - Take-Profit (TP): 1815.00 (above support 1815). - Trailing Stop: Activate at 1820.00, trail by 0.5%.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Vlad_AI
2
#ETH/USDT#ETH The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and is heading for a strong breakout and retest. We are seeing a rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is support at 1815. We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, supporting the upward trend. We are looking for stability above the 100 Moving Average. Entry price: 1840 First target: 1860 Second target: 1876 Third target: 1890
Long
by CryptoAnalystSignal