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FET/USDT - Trendline Breakout (22.04.2025)The FET/USDT Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 0.553 2nd Support – 0.516 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
15
ETH-----Sell around 1610, target 1550 areaTechnical analysis of ETH contract on April 16: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small negative line yesterday, and the K-line pattern was a single negative and a single positive, but the price was still below the moving average. The attached indicator dead crosses and the fast and slow lines are golden crosses, but the pressure is below the zero axis. In this way, the current pullback trend can only be regarded as a correction, because the price has not stood on the moving average and has not broken the previous high. It is easy to fall under pressure for the second time when the indicators are not unified; the current K-line pattern of the four-hour chart has fallen continuously, and the attached indicator dead crosses. The price is below the moving average, and the pressure position of the pullback moving average is near the 1610 area. The short-cycle hourly chart was under pressure in the US market yesterday and was corrected in the Asian time today. The trend pattern is still the same, and the correction pullback cannot be large. Therefore, today's ETH short-term contract trading strategy: sell at the pullback 1610 area, stop loss at the 1640 area, and target the 1550 area;
Short
by BraveTigercat
Caution on Crypto, Tech, SPXI know its a mess, this is just for me anyway. I tend to overcomplicate things so now then, lets over simplify for my monkey brain: Trend line broken = Warning, thing are likely to change ( even though you didnt get the bull market you wanted) Watch said trend retest, look for weakness, struggling price action selling on the retest of the top lows last time would offer you 5% off the peako top, (Thats really good!! stop being a perfectionist) I am very much frustrated with this market, never got the crazy part I was waiting for. But the lack of euphoria is really not that unreasonable when you think about what has been goin on the past 5 years. Everyone is poorer liquidity has been super tight to curb inflation and we still got NASDAQ:NDX up 150% Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN did a 10x and I still am not happy(likely due to the max pain trade of my life COINBASE:ETHUSD ). I have realized that I have been hoping for another 2018 bull run. It may or may not happen, but I can't expect any market to reflect that in any significant way. Markets are much more dynamic than I give them credit for sometimes. They will rhyme but often in ways you do not expect and will not be made clear until that little bastard hindsight kicks in, showing you how obvious it was.
SP:SPXShort
by merchtank19
ETH-----Sell around 1600, target 1530-1505 areaTechnical analysis of ETH contract on April 11: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small negative line yesterday, and the K-line pattern was a single positive line with continuous negative lines. The price was below the moving average, and the attached indicator was dead cross. The downward trend in the big trend is still very obvious. Yesterday, we also explained that the suppression at the weekly level was very obvious, so it is difficult to break the high, continue, and form a trend. This is what we need to clarify first; the short-cycle hourly chart yesterday continued to fall in the European session and the US session, and the price support rebounded in the early morning. This is also expected. The right shoulder pressure of the head and shoulders top pattern is near the 1600 area. Yesterday, it reached the low point and rebounded to the right shoulder peak and then fell to complete the head and shoulders top pattern. Isn’t this very clear? Therefore, today’s ETH short-term contract trading strategy: sell at the rebound 1600 area, stop loss at the 1630 area, and target the 1530-1505 area;
Short
by BraveTigercat
Warning: Low Ethereum Target LoomsThe Unthinkable Target: Is $1,000 ETH Really in Play? Suggesting Ethereum could fall back to $1,000 might seem hyperbolic to those who remember its peak near $5,000. However, the crypto market is notorious for its brutal volatility and deep drawdowns. Bitcoin itself has experienced multiple corrections exceeding 80% from its all-time highs throughout its history. While Ethereum has matured significantly, it's not immune to severe market downturns or shifts in narrative dominance. A $1,000 price target represents a roughly 65-70% decline from prices seen in early-to-mid 2024 (assuming a starting point around $3,000-$3,500) and an approximate 80% drop from its all-time high. While drastic, such a move could become plausible under a confluence of negative circumstances: 1. Severe Macroeconomic Downturn: A deep global recession, coupled with sustained high interest rates or a major credit event, could trigger a massive risk-off wave across all assets, hitting speculative investments like crypto particularly hard. 2. Regulatory Crackdown: Punitive regulations targeting DeFi, staking, or specific aspects of Ethereum's ecosystem could severely damage sentiment and utility. 3. Technological Stagnation or Failure: Major setbacks in Ethereum's scaling roadmap or the discovery of a critical vulnerability could erode confidence. 4. Sustained Loss of Narrative: If competing blockchains definitively capture the dominant narrative for innovation, speed, and cost-effectiveness, ETH could lose its premium valuation. 5. Technical Breakdown: A decisive break below key long-term support levels (like the previous cycle highs around $1,400 or psychological levels like $2,000) could trigger cascading liquidations and stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline towards lower supports, including the $1,000 vicinity which acted as significant resistance/support in previous cycles. While not a base-case prediction for many, the $1,000 target serves as a stark reminder of the potential downside if the current negative pressures persist and intensify, particularly within a broader bear market context. The factors currently driving ETH's weakness provide fuel for this bearish contemplation. Reason 1: The Underwhelming Arrival of Spot Ethereum ETFs Following the monumental success of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, which attracted tens of billions in net inflows within months of launch, expectations were sky-high for their Ethereum counterparts. The narrative was compelling: regulated, accessible vehicles would unlock a floodgate of institutional capital, mirroring Bitcoin's ETF-driven price surge. However, the reality has been starkly different and deeply disappointing for ETH bulls. Since their launch, Spot Ethereum ETFs have witnessed tepid demand, characterized by weak inflows and, at times, even net outflows. The initial excitement quickly fizzled out, failing to provide the anticipated buying pressure. Several factors contribute to this underwhelming debut: • Pre-Launch Regulatory Uncertainty: The SEC's approval process for ETH ETFs was far less certain and more contentious than for Bitcoin. This lingering ambiguity, particularly around Ethereum's classification (commodity vs. security) and the handling of staking, may have made some large institutions cautious. • Lack of Staking Yield: Unlike holding ETH directly or through certain other investment products, the approved US Spot ETH ETFs do not currently offer holders exposure to staking yields – a core component of Ethereum's tokenomics and a significant draw for long-term investors. This makes the ETF product inherently less attractive compared to direct ownership for yield-seeking capital. • Existing Exposure Channels: Institutional players interested in Ethereum already had established avenues for gaining exposure, including futures markets (CME ETH futures), Grayscale's Ethereum Trust (ETHE, although less efficient pre-conversion), and direct custody solutions. The incremental demand unlocked by the spot ETFs may have been smaller than anticipated. • Market Timing and Sentiment: The ETH ETFs launched into a more challenging macroeconomic environment and a period of cooling sentiment in the broader crypto market compared to the Bitcoin ETF launch window. The initial risk-on euphoria had faded, replaced by concerns about inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions. • "Sell the News" Event: As often happens in markets, the period leading up to the ETF approval saw significant price appreciation. The actual launch may have triggered profit-taking by traders who had bought in anticipation of the event. The impact of these weak ETF flows is significant. It signals a lack of immediate, large-scale institutional appetite for ETH through this specific channel, removing a key bullish catalyst that many had banked on. It also contributes to negative market sentiment, reinforcing the narrative that Ethereum is currently out of favor compared to Bitcoin or other trending assets. Without this expected wave of ETF-driven buying, the price is more susceptible to selling pressure from other sources. Reason 2: Derivatives Market Flashing Red - Low Interest, Negative Funding The derivatives market, particularly perpetual futures, provides crucial insights into trader sentiment and positioning. Two key metrics are currently painting a bearish picture for Ethereum: Open Interest (OI) and Funding Rates. • Low Open Interest (OI): Open Interest represents the total number of outstanding derivative contracts (longs and shorts) that have not been settled. While OI naturally fluctuates, consistently low OI relative to historical peaks or compared to Bitcoin's OI suggests a lack of strong conviction and reduced speculative interest in Ethereum. When traders are uncertain or bearish, they are less likely to open large, leveraged positions, leading to subdued OI. This indicates that fewer market participants are willing to bet aggressively on ETH's future price direction, especially on the long side. • Negative Funding Rates: Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between long and short position holders in perpetual futures contracts. They are designed to keep the futures price tethered to the underlying spot price. o Positive Funding: When the futures price trades at a premium to spot (contango) and bullish sentiment dominates, longs typically pay shorts. This incentivizes shorting and disincentivizes longing, helping to pull the prices back together. o Negative Funding: When the futures price trades at a discount to spot (backwardation) and bearish sentiment prevails, shorts pay longs. This indicates a higher demand for short positions (either speculative shorting or hedging long spot holdings). Consistently negative funding rates, as observed for ETH during periods of weakness, are a strong bearish signal. It means traders are actively paying a premium to maintain short exposure, reflecting widespread pessimism about the price outlook. • The combination of low Open Interest and negative Funding Rates creates a negative feedback loop. It shows reduced speculative appetite, a dominance of short positioning, and a lack of leveraged longs willing to drive the price higher. While extremely negative funding can sometimes precede a "short squeeze" (where rising prices force shorts to cover, accelerating the rally), the persistent nature of these conditions recently suggests underlying weakness rather than an imminent explosive reversal. This bearish derivatives landscape acts as a significant headwind, absorbing buying pressure and making sustained rallies difficult. Reason 3: The Relentless Rise of Competing Layer-1s Ethereum's primary value proposition has long been its status as the dominant, most secure, and most decentralized platform for smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps). However, its reign is facing its most significant challenge yet from a growing cohort of alternative Layer-1 (L1) blockchains, often dubbed "ETH Killers." While Ethereum still dominates in terms of Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi and overall network value, competing L1s like Solana, Avalanche, Cardano, and newer entrants are rapidly gaining ground in crucial areas of network activity: • Transaction Throughput and Fees: Many competitors offer significantly higher transaction speeds (transactions per second) and dramatically lower fees compared to Ethereum's mainnet. While Ethereum's Layer-2 scaling solutions aim to address this, the user experience on some alternative L1s can feel faster and cheaper for certain applications, attracting users and developers. • Active Users and Daily Transactions: Chains like Solana have, at times, surpassed Ethereum in metrics like daily active addresses and transaction counts, particularly fueled by specific niches like meme coins, high-frequency DeFi, or certain NFT projects. This indicates a migration of user activity seeking lower costs or specific functionalities. • Developer Activity and Ecosystem Growth: While Ethereum retains a vast developer community, alternative L1s are aggressively courting developers with grants, simpler tooling (in some cases), and the allure of building on the "next big thing." This leads to vibrant DApp ecosystems growing outside of Ethereum. • Technological Differentiation: Competitors often employ different consensus mechanisms (e.g., Proof-of-History, Avalanche Consensus) or architectural designs that offer trade-offs favoring speed or specific use cases over Ethereum's current approach (though Ethereum's roadmap aims to incorporate many advancements). The impact of this intensifying competition is multifaceted. It fragments liquidity and user attention across multiple platforms. It challenges the narrative of Ethereum's unassailable network effect. Crucially, it reduces the relative demand for ETH itself, which is needed for gas fees and staking on the Ethereum network. If users and developers increasingly opt for alternative platforms, the fundamental demand drivers for ETH weaken, putting downward pressure on its price relative to these competitors and the market overall. Ethereum is no longer the only viable option for building or using decentralized applications, and this increased competition is clearly impacting its market position and price performance. The Path to Reversal: What Needs to Change for Ethereum? Despite the current headwinds and the looming shadow of lower price targets, Ethereum is far from dead. It possesses a resilient community, the largest developer base, significant first-mover advantages, and a comprehensive roadmap for future upgrades. However, a sustainable trend reversal requires tangible progress and shifts across several fronts: 1. ETF Flows Must Materialize: The narrative needs to shift from disappointment to tangible success. This requires sustained, significant net inflows into the Spot ETH ETFs, potentially driven by broader institutional adoption, clearer regulatory frameworks globally, or perhaps future ETF iterations that incorporate staking yields (though regulatory hurdles for this are high). 2. Derivatives Sentiment Needs to Flip: Open Interest needs to build substantially, indicating renewed speculative conviction. More importantly, funding rates need to turn consistently positive, signaling a shift towards bullish positioning and leveraged longs re-entering the market. 3. Successful Execution of Ethereum's Roadmap: Continued progress and successful implementation of Ethereum's scaling solutions are paramount. Wider adoption and tangible impact from upgrades like Proto-Danksharding (EIP-4844) reducing Layer-2 fees, and clear progress towards future milestones like Verkle Trees and Statelessness, are needed to demonstrate Ethereum can overcome its scalability challenges and maintain its technological edge. 4. Reigniting Network Activity and Demand: Ethereum needs compelling new applications or upgrades to existing protocols that drive genuine user demand and increase the consumption of ETH for gas. This could come from innovations in DeFi, NFTs, GameFi, decentralized identity, or other unforeseen areas. The narrative needs to shift back towards Ethereum as the primary hub of valuable on-chain activity. 5. Favorable Macroeconomic Conditions: Like all risk assets, Ethereum would benefit significantly from a broader shift towards risk-on sentiment, potentially fueled by central bank easing (lower interest rates), controlled inflation, and stable global growth. 6. A Renewed, Compelling Narrative: Ethereum needs a clear and powerful story that resonates beyond its existing user base. Whether it's focusing on its superior security and decentralization, its role as the foundational "settlement layer" for the digital economy, or a new killer application, a refreshed narrative is needed to recapture investor imagination and justify a premium valuation. Conclusion: Ethereum at a Critical Juncture Ethereum's recent price struggles are not arbitrary; they are rooted in tangible factors: the lackluster performance of its spot ETFs, bearish signals from the derivatives market, and the undeniable pressure from faster, cheaper Layer-1 competitors. These elements combine to create an environment where contemplating a fall towards $1,000, while bearish, is a reflection of the significant challenges the network faces. However, Ethereum's history is one of resilience and adaptation. It has weathered bear markets, technical hurdles, and competitive threats before. The path back to sustained growth and potentially new all-time highs is challenging but not impossible. It hinges on reigniting institutional interest via ETFs, flipping derivatives sentiment, successfully executing its ambitious technological roadmap to counter competitors, and benefiting from a supportive macro environment. Until these positive catalysts materialize convincingly, Ethereum may continue to lag, and the possibility of further downside, even towards the $1,000 mark in a severe downturn, will remain a topic of discussion among market participants navigating the crypto giant's uncertain future.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by bryandowningqln
ETH-----Sell around 1640, target 1540 areaTechnical analysis of ETH contract on April 8: Today, the large-cycle daily level closed with a small negative line yesterday. The K-line pattern continued to fall, the price was below the moving average, and it was currently deviated from the moving average, so here we have to pay attention to one issue, which is to prevent the price from rebounding and correcting to the moving average pressure position, and the moving average pressure is near the 1670 area. The attached chart indicator is dead cross running, and the big trend is no problem, it is very clear; the short-cycle hourly chart has continued to rebound since yesterday's European session, and the high point has touched the 1640 area. The current K-line pattern is continuous positive, and the attached chart indicator is golden cross running, so wait and see during the day. From the current trend, the trend of rebound correction will still be in the day, and wait for the signal of pressure before selling. Therefore, today's ETH short-term contract trading strategy: sell at the rebound 1640 area, stop loss at the 1670 area, and target the 1540 area;
Short
by BraveTigercat
ETH CHART: I FOUND THE BOTTOM!HERE IS MY FUNDA REASON OR NEWS WHY I THINK THIS IS THE LAST DROP~! BEFORE WE RECOVER AND START THE BUILDING OF CRYPTO! Price Decline and Market Sentiment: Ethereum's price has dropped below $1,800, marking a significant decline of over 45% since the start of the year. This has raised concerns about its market stability, with some analysts predicting further drops to $1,550 if key resistance levels aren't reclaimed. Investor Sentiment and FUD: Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) have led to increased selling pressure. Retail traders have been offloading ETH holdings, resulting in reduced trading volumes and network activity. Active addresses and transaction volumes have also declined, signaling lower demand! Technical Challenges and Resistance Levels: Ethereum has struggled to break past critical resistance levels, such as $1,900. Its failure to reclaim these levels has validated bearish patterns, with some analysts warning of a potential drop to 17-month lows! Macroeconomic Factors: Broader economic uncertainties, including geopolitical events like tariffs, have contributed to Ethereum's struggles. These factors have added to the negative sentiment in both the financial and crypto markets. Network Activity and Whale Behavior: While some large investors (whales) are accumulating ETH, the overall network activity has seen a decline. This mixed behavior has created uncertainty about the asset's short-term trajectory
CRYPTO:ETHUSDShort
by osodatsismoso
1
ETH-----Sell around 1810, target 1750 areaTechnical analysis of ETH contract on April 5: Today, the large-cycle daily line level closed with a small negative line yesterday, and the K-line pattern continued to fall. The price was below the moving average. The fast and slow lines of the attached indicator were glued together and flattened. From this point of view, the time happened to be on the weekend, and the weekend was mainly focused on corrections. So can we predict whether the trend of the second big drop will continue next week? Let's wait and see; the short-cycle hourly chart was under pressure in the early morning, and the K-line pattern showed continuous negative lines. The attached indicator was dead cross running, and the high point of the correction was near the 1836 area. From the perspective of various technical indicators, the current decline will continue, but the strength will not be very large. Therefore, today's ETH short-term contract trading strategy: sell directly at the current price of 1813 area, stop loss in the 1843 area, and target the 1750 area;
Short
by BraveTigercat
ETH-----Sell around 1825, target 1750 areaTechnical analysis of ETH contract on April 4: Today, the daily level of the large cycle closed with a small positive line yesterday, and the K-line pattern was a single positive line with continuous negative lines. The price is still below the moving average and is obviously suppressed. The fast and slow lines of the attached indicator continue to close negative today, so the pattern will cross downward. Therefore, the general trend remains unchanged and continues to be bearish. Trading remains short-term and risk control is done well; the short-term price decline yesterday broke the previous low of 1750, but did not continue. The current price fluctuates within the range and there is not much movement. From the perspective of various technical indicators, the four-hour chart is a continuous negative line, and the intraday price is suppressed, so the trend is still bearish, and the previous correction high is near 1850. Today's ETH short-term contract trading strategy: sell at the 1825 area, stop loss at the 1855 area, and target the 1750 area;
Short
by BraveTigercat
ETH-----Sell around 1840, target 1770-1750 areaTechnical analysis of ETH contract on April 3: Today, the large-cycle daily line level closed with a medium-yin line yesterday, the K-line pattern was a continuous Yin and a single Yang, the price was below the moving average, and the attached indicator was dead cross, so there was no problem with the trend and it was still falling significantly, but the trend this week was more volatile, and it was greatly stimulated by the news and data. The rhythm of trading is very important; the four-hour chart is the focus, the current K-line pattern is a continuous Yin, the attached indicator is dead cross, the morning fell, and the correction was made during the day. It was just corrected to the 1845 area near the moving average pressure position, so we still have to focus on the price continuing to break in the European session. In addition, the same anti-pull strength cannot be large, otherwise it will still fluctuate. Therefore, today's ETH short-term contract trading strategy: sell directly at the current price of 1840, stop loss in the 1870 area, and target the 1770-1750 area
Short
by BraveTigercat