ETHEREUM Triangle aiming at the critical 1D MA200 testEthereum (ETHUSD) has been trading within a Triangle pattern since the June 18 2022 market bottom. It is above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), where it had the last rejection on December 14 and it targeting for the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which happens to be now exactly at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Triangle and is where it had its last major rejection during the FTX crash on November 04 2022.
A 1D candle closing above the 1D MA200 reverses the currently neutral medium-term trend to bullish and targets the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (which happens to be on the November 04 Resistance) and if also broken then the 0.786 Fib (which happens to be on the September 11 High/ Resistance). Basically see how all Fibonacci levels have formed critical pressure points within that pattern.
On the other hand, a closing below the 1D MA50 could target the bottom of the Triangle again but only a break below the last Higher Low (1075.50) can turn the trend bearish (medium-term) towards the 885.00 market bottom.
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Ethusdsignals
ETHEREUM has a mountain to climb within this Triangle patternEthereum (ETHUSD) has been trading within a Triangle pattern since the June 18 Low (and current market bottom). The Lower Highs and Higher Lows are evident but despite the sideways price action of the past 1 month, ETH has to overcome two major price rejections, one on November 04 on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the other last week on December 14 on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
A break and closing above the 1D MA200 and in turn the top of the Triangle, turns the price bullish towards 1675 (Resistance 1), while a break below 1075 (Support 1) and in turn the bottom of the Triangle, turns the price bearish towards 885 (Support 2).
The RSI on the 1W time-frame can help spot medium-term buy and sell opportunities as it is trading within a Rectangle pattern where its top tests have been Triangle Highs and bottoms Triangle Lows.
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ETHEREUM Crucial bullish test as in 2017. Will the Dollar help?Ethereum (ETHUSD) is once again testing the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Being still on a downtrend but since mid-June on Higher Lows, this undoubtedly draws comparisons with the 2016 Bear Cycle. As you see ETH made Higher Lows in December 2016 and that was the bottom of that Bear Cycle as an early January 2017 1D MA200 Double Test resulted in a break-out and a parabolic rally that ushered the new Bull Cycle.
It is interesting that both Bear Cycles resembled a Head and Shoulders pattern (H&S) before breaking to the Higher Lows bottom. This analysis has one extra but key element, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). During both Bear Cycles of Ethereum, the DXY (green trend-line) has been rising aggressively. What really helped ETH break above its 1D MA200 in January 2017 was the strong bearish reversal on the DXY, as they are negatively correlated.
The DXY has been pulling back on Lower Highs and Lower Lows (Channel Down) since late September. Can this pull-back be sustainable and evolve into a strong correction? If yes, we can expect Ethereum to break above the 1D MA200 and officially start its new Bull Cycle.
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ETHUSDT Critical moment as it's testing the BearCycle ResistanceEthereum (ETHUSDT) has been very bullish in the past three weeks and on the current 1W candle in particular it rose hat much that it hit the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the week of November 29 2021. The test has been (so far) largely unsuccessful as the price got rejected, making it just the 2nd rejection since the April 04 1W candle.
At the same time, the 1W RSI broke above its own Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding since the May 03 2021 weekly candle High! This could be an early signal that ETH will break above its own Lower Highs trend-line and introduce a sustainable long-term bullish trend.
If a 1W closing above this trend-line happens, we can see ETH target the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), below which we've been trading since the April 04 2022 1W candle. Since there is a Higher Lows trend-line (dotted) since the mid-June bottom involved, we can see in that case a Channel Up (green) materializing. On the other hand, with the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) supporting, a break below the Higher Lows trend-line, could target the 887.30 June Low.
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ETHUSDT Ahead of the 2022 Bear Cycle Resistance test!*** ***
For this particular analysis on Ethereum we are using the ETHUSDT symbol on the OKX exchange.
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The idea is on the 1D time-frame where ETH hit today the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since September 18 and by doing so it also broke above the Triangle pattern top (Lower Highs trend-line), which has been holding since August 14 (dashed lines).
So far this represents roughly a +15% rise on a daily basis and that strong push brings the price a few steps before the ultimate Resistance test: The Lower Highs trend-line since the December 01 2021 High, which is basically the Resistance level that has been dictating the major rejections during this 2022 Bear Cycle. Needless to say this is critical and a break above it can potentially signal the start of the new Bull Cycle along with a closing above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Notice how the 1D RSI projected today's rise as it happened right after it broke above its Lower Highs trend-line. See how a similar Lower Highs break-out on July 04 and January 30, kickstarted major medium-term rallies. This allows us to project a rough estimate as I have plotted both bullish sequences on today's price action after the RSI Lower Highs break-out. Interestingly enough, both show a medium-term target within 2150 - 2200.
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ETHUSD Needs to break above this level otherwise dump possibleEthereum (ETHUSD) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down since the November 10 2021 High. In recent weeks though, since the July 13 2022 Low, the price has made an aggressive run of +100%, pushed by the late bullish fundamentals. We clearly showed that bullish potential on our last ETH analysis a month ago:
That rise is starting to show some indicators that the rally may be over. It is not just the fact that it hit the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and started pulling back (same was done on 0.618 and 0.6 anyway) or the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) being just above near the Channel's Lower Highs (top) trend-line, but more importantly the 1D RSI trading sideways sine July 18 and being rejected inside the overbought Resistance Zone on August 13. The other three times that this has happened in the last 12 months, lower values followed. Especially within the Channel Down, that marked the start of selling sequences to new Lower Lows.
Last time in particular (April 03 2022), ETH was also rejected on the 1D MA200, exactly on the Lower Highs trend-line of the Channel Down. As a result, breaking this shouldn't be enough to restore the long-term bullish trend. What may be enough on the other hand is a break above the 1D MA500 (yellow trend-line), which has been acting as a pivot through these past years, first supporting the price from January to March 2022 and now posing as the Resistance.
As a result, for long-term ETHUSD traders, it may be a good idea to take the huge profit if you opened the buy on time as we suggested and either go for the price that a new potential sell-off may lead to or buy when the 1D MA500 breaks.
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ETHEREUM Comfortably above the 1D MA50. Aiming at $2200.Ethereum (ETHUSD) is currently on a minor three day pull-back following the emphatic break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The stop/ rejection of that break came exactly on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which is the middle of the long-term Channel Down pattern that ETH has been trading in since the November 10 2021 All Time High (ATH). Don't forget, keep an even longer-term perspective if you want to have a clearer outlook of where we are in the market relative to past Cycles. This is something we've outlined a month ago when ETH was testing its Parabolic Growth curve, giving a buy signal:
On the shorter term and 1D time-frame, we have to consider the RSI Resistance Zone involved, which may be an additional reason for this profit-taking we're experiencing after the 1D MA50 break-out. However this doesn't mean that buyers have to leave the market as, as you see, all prior RSI Resistance tests, still gave (in some instances rather big) bullish extensions (the green Channels on the chart), before dropping evidently.
As you see, a similar extension to late October/ early November 2021 would push the price exactly at the top of the Channel Down, right on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which provided the last big rejection of the pattern on April 05. This extension (March 28 - April 05 2022) was the smallest of the group, while the biggest was August 2021.
This detailed chart shows how to act accordingly and close/ open trades within the Fibonacci levels, but always keep a long-term cyclical perspective as well.
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ETHUSD On the lowest 1W RSI ever testing the Growth Curve!Ethereum (ETHUSD) broke this week (chart on 1W time-frame) below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since October 2020. The 1W RSI hit the lowest level ever recorded in ETH's history and by doing so, the price hit its Logarithmic Growth Curve (dashed line).
All this paint the picture of a strong Support Zone. However, there is a certain condition from Ethereum's last Bear Cycle that hasn't yet been fulfilled and that is touching the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the moment the Parabolic Rally (green Channel Up) started. In December 2018 that was where the Bottom was formed. That parameter is now around $625. Interestingly enough it is exactly where the 5 year Higher Lows trend-line is. If the Growth Curve breaks, it is very likely to see the final bottom there.
Do you think the historically oversold 1W RSI is enough to accumulate buyers and prevent this?
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ETHEREUM finished its corrective phase & will rise parabolicallyAs mentioned back in December 2021, Ethereum (ETHUSD) was at the start of a corrective mini-phase that we previously saw in October - December 2016.
I made a case back then that ETH was replicating a pattern of its previous Cycle that eventually led to its market top. That is the green Triangle formation of March - September 2016. What followed after was a corrective mini-phase outside the Triangle that extended for roughly 9 - 10 weeks and only found Support on the previous Low.
This time Ethereum broke above the green Triangle and started its corrective mini-phase from higher ground. The 1W RSI sequences of the two fractals also illustrate that. However it also reached the correction phase low in roughly 10 weeks. Last month (March 2022), it made a Higher High for the first time since the correction, confirming that the correction is over, the new Low (bottom) is in and most likely it will now start the big parabolic rally towards the new market (Cycle) top.
Another indicator set that also shows that ETH is at the point of an aggressive bullish break-out, is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Upper Bollinger Band (UBB). As you see, in January 2017 those two made contact but didn't cross each other and then the price bounced aggressively. Right now we had this contact last month and already see the UBB rising.
The comparison with the previous Cycle certainly shows that some phases may not be as aggressive as their respective ones of the previous Cycle. Take for example the rally that followed the market bottom phases (blue Triangles). The one that followed the October 2015 bottom was much more aggressive and quick than the one that followed the March 2020 bottom, which was less aggressive and lengthier.
What's your view on this one? Do you think that we are just starting the new parabolic rally that will eventually lead to a Cycle Top? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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ETHEREUM Major rally ahead if the 1W MA50 breaksLast time I looked into Ethereum (ETHUSD) was at the beginning of the month, where I presented a trading plan based on the break-outs of the Triangle on the 1D time-frame:
Now that the price broke above the Triangle, causing a bullish break-out signal as per the strategy, it is time to look into ETH again but on the 1W time-frame as we are ahead of a critical test.
As you see, the price is about to hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). ETH hasn't closed a week above it since the January 10 2022 1W candle. It doesn't therefore take much to realize how important of a Resistance level this trend-line is. What may be even more crucial though is the fact that during the 2016/2017 Bull Cycle, the price formed the very same Accumulation pattern that ETH has been currently in since the May 10 2021 candle.
At that time, the accumulation ended when after 2 months of trading below the 1W MA50, Ethereum closed a 1W candle above the 1W MA50, causing a bullish break-out signal and initiating a massive parabolic rally. Right now, we may be entering this last phase of the Accumulation where a 1W candle close above the MA50, can kick-start the next rally. Even the 1W RSI sequences during the Accumulation phases are similar. Regarding where the next top may be, a safe idea is to look for a test of the RSI Resistance Zone, which is where the rallies historically take a pause.
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ETHUSD Lower Highs and 1D MA100 are the key. How to trade those.Ethereum is currently testing its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and even though it has marginally broken above it three times since December 09 2021, it failed to hold a sustainable rise and got rejected under the pressure of a Lower Highs trend-line.
The very same Lower Highs trend-line has been seen during the previous correction and subsequence Accumulation Phase on ETH's bottom, below again the 1D MA50. However, it was when the 1D MA100 broke (green trend-line), which happened to be just below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, that ETHUSD confirmed entering a bullish trend long-term.
We just so happen to be on a similar situation now, with the 1D MA100 declining rapidly near the 0.382 Fib. We monitor the price action first for a break above the Lower Highs trend-line and then for a break-out above the 1D MA100, in order to confirm the bullish reversal on the long-term. In that scenario, look for a first High near the 0.618 Fib, as in August 2021, which is currently just over $3800. If the Lower Highs trend-line rejects the price again look for a pull-back towards the 2160 low again.
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ETHEREUM getting ready for $10k. Last chance to buy?It has been a while since I looked into Ethereum but what a better time to look at it than now. Ever since the May high, the price has been trading inside a Triangle. This pattern resembles the June - November 2017 Triangle which was the last accumulation phase of the 2017 Cycle before a final parabolic rise that formed the market top just below the 4.382 Fibonacci extension.
The two fractals are identical. Both parabolic rallies initially started after a 1D Golden Cross (the MA50 crossing above the MA200 (blue and orange trend-lines respectively), that followed a market bottom (Fib extensions measured from that bottom). The Triangles are the last accumulation phase before the blow-off top. The LMACD sequences are also quite similar.
If the pattern plays out exactly as the 2017 fractal, then currently we may be on one of the last chances to buy before the parabolic rally towards the $10000 mark. The 4.382 Fib extension is a little below $17000.
Will there be a better opportunity to buy ETHUSD or you are not missing this one? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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ETHEREUM bounced exactly on the 1DMA50. We have seen this beforeETHUSD followed the general bearish market sentiment yesterday and as all cryptos, registered a strong (almost -25%) correction. The unique feat for ETH is that its correction stopped exactly on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
My long term outlook on Ethereum is the following and I've last updated it on July 28, shortly after the break above its 1D MA50 gave a strong buy confirmation:
Right now, the price is holding above the Support Zone, forming a Rising Wedge (almost Triangle) pattern. According to my July chart above, we've seen this pattern every time ETH broke above the 1D MA50 and rallied since the March 2020 COVID global meltdown. As you see on the snapshots below, on all occasions, the price held the 1D MA50 and rebounded:
Is this a strong signal calling for a continuation of the long-term bullish trend? Most likely yes based on the technical data above. However a candle closing below the 1D MA50 could deliver further selling towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and take the market to a medium-term consolidation phase between the two before resuming the uptrend.
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ETHUSD BUYING ON DIPS As i can see ETH is ready to make new higher high as soon as this break the resistence are then i will start
to make a new higher high we are rading this pair with a low risk and looking for higher rewards
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ETHEREUM forming a bullish break-out pattern to $690ETHUSD is holding its 9 month Channel Up, currently having formed a Triangle within. As seen on the chart, every time such a pattern (Triangle) is formed, the price breaks to the upside. Some times more aggressive (+83%, +89%), others less (+29%).
At the same time, while the Triangle is formed, the RSI prints a Channel Down (showing accumulation in process) and the LMACD being descending, makes a Bullish Cross. The only exception to the RSI is the Sept/ Oct Triangle, but that traded below the the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). In all other occasions, the 1D MA50 was supporting (as it does now).
A +29% rise tops at $690, a +89% would top at $990. Which one do you think its going to be?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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**BONUS MATERIAL: My most recent ETHBTC analysis **
ETHEREUM on the weekly chart. Is $600 achievable?Last week I posted the following chart on Ethereum:
** The Inner Channel Up **
It was about the final Resistance level of 400 that ETH had to break before its April Channel Up (inner/ blue) on the 1D chart turned bullish again. Well it happened, as the 1D MA50 turned into Support, and the price is moving higher.
** The Outer Channel Up **
My attention now shifts back to the 1W chart, which (excluding the March melt-down) is dictated by a very clear Channel Up too (outer). See how harmonically the price is pivoting on the middle (dashed) trend-line of this Channel Up (red and green arrows). This Channel started after the December 2018 bottom and since then, it is the first time that a weekly candle closes that high after a bounce on the middle trend-line. Clear bullish strength with the sentiment getting even stronger as the LMACD is about to make a bullish cross.
Can Ethereum take advantage of this momentum and reach $600 before the end of the year, which will be a Higher High on the long-term (outer) Channel Up? A roughly +95% increase from the last low, certainly shows it can! And as you see on the chart this +95% rise has been consistent in marking Higher Highs since December 2018, successfully making 5 occurrence already!
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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ETHEREUM one level left to break before the next jumpETHUSD has been trading within a Channel Up on the 1D chart since early April. The price has traded on the lower half of the pattern for most of the time, which serves as the demand zone for accumulation. The upper half was used so far for profit taking by long-term traders.
Though this framework is relevant, the most important development of the last days is the $400 Resistance which has been tested (and failed to break) three days ago. This is similar to the June-mid July price action when ETH again struggled to break the (at the time) 255 Resistance, but when it did an aggressive rally started straight to the profit taking zone of the Channel Up.
Notice how in both cases during the later stages of the Resistance testing, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) turned into Support. Also the LMACD pattern is similar.
Do you expect a strong rally once this Resistance breaks? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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ETHEREUM The Channel Up that makes buyers worry.ETHUSD has been one of the surprises of the post-March collapse, having broken above its June 2019 High, while BTC is lagging. Despite this success that has revived investing interest on this coin, there is a certain pattern that holders would want to see breaking upwards as it comes with strong bearish bias.
** The Channel Up on 1W **
That is the Channel Up you see on this chart. With perfect Higher High trend-line touches on the 1W candles of August 20 2018, June 24 2019 and recently August 21 2020. As you see the middle of the Channel also serves as a Resistance/ Support level at times. Every Higher High is on the 1.15 Fibonacci extension of the previous Low-High leg.
** The LMACD **
The Channel suggests that if the 1W MA20 breaks, the leg to a new Higher Low may begin. The LMACD just made a Bearish Cross, which on July 2019 marked the start of a drop below the median, while on March took place exactly at the bottom (even outside) of the Channel.
** The RSI **
Positive sentiment though comes from the RSI which shows that if it keeps trading within the neckline of the H&S (within of course its own Channel Up), which I marked by the yellow shape, the price may remain higher than where it was on the left part of the neckline, i.e. currently above the middle (white dashed line). What the RSI must avoid is the Red Zone (on the bottom of the Channel).
It goes without saying that ETH buyers wouldn't want to see this Channel Up fulfill its technical gap and instead break above it and start a new, more aggressive bullish pattern .
What do you think will happen? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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BITCOIN bringing rally memories to ETHEREUM??This is an interesting find I came across while comparing ETH's current cycle on the 1W chart to BTC's previous (2014 - 2017) Cycle.
As you see Ethereum, not only follows Bitcoin's Bear Market structure but also the consolidation that took place after, which led to the Bull Market rally. When that consolidation broke to the upside and the price pulled-back to test the (previous) top of the structure as Support, it held and kickstarted the aggressive phase of the Bull Market for Bitcoin.
Will history ETHUSD follow Bitcoin on this one? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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ETHEREUM Pump/ Rinse/ RepeatWell it appears that this is the sequence for Ethereum since late April: Pump-Rinse-Repeat.
More specifically the last two Pump sequences (April 21-30 and May 21-June 01) have been around +37%. After their peak, the price pulled back and consolidated within a Cup pattern. As mentioned this has been done twice already.
Right now, the 3rd sequence has began and there is still another +9% to go in order to complete the 37% range, which if repeated, will peak at $312.
Notice also how the 4H LMACD is just about to form a Bearish Cross, which during the last sequence (May 31) market the final leg upwards to the blow-off top.
Will this be repeated?
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ETHEREUM Indications that the Bull Rally is startingAnother simple study on ETHUSD making use of the MA20 and the LMACD on the 1M (monthly) chart.
As you see both showcase strong bullish signals. In particular, the LMACD made a Bullish Cross in May but the important thing is that Ethereum has been making Higher Highs since, indicating a sustainable uptrend.
On top of that the MA20 has turned bullish for the first time since the 2018 Bear Market.
Additionally, the short-term bearish fractal posted early this month, got invalidated yesterday:
Are you ready to join the ride?
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ETHEREUM Bearish fractal and how it is invalidatedEthereum is trading within a 1 month Channel Down on the 1D chart. This is the second Channel Down in a row it has been trading in since April 20th. The first was invalidated when the price aggressively broke to the upside and hit 254.00.
The broader pattern is a Bearish Megaphone that started with the June 26th peak. The same Channel Down in a row pattern took place on that peak. Once the price broke the 2nd Channel Down to the downside, it dropped to the 1D MA200.
Since the current Channel Down made a High on the Bearish Megaphone's Lower Highs trend-line, it is possible to see a similar drop to the 1D MA200 if the Channel Down breaks downwards. The pattern is invalidated of course if the Lower Highs trend-line of the Bearish Megaphone breaks upwards, in which case ETHUSD turns bullish on even larger time-frames.
Ethereum Monthly Chart Reveals Likely DirectionSparksterSignals hasn't done a manual analysis of ETHUSD for a while. Looking at the big picture on the monthly chart reveals MACD momentum is becoming positive and price action via Heiken Ashi setting also shows positive momentum.
However, the 2 week and 1 week time-frames look like time for consolidation so we're not expecting fast price appreciation quite yet...
The red trend-line needs to be broken first. At that point the weekly momentum may fly in formation with the monthly momentum and price can continue towards previous ATH — taking the rest of the altcoin market up with it!
Triggers at the ready...