EU
EURUSD Outlook 9/5First full week of the new month. My expectation is that market will grab sell side one last time possibly with a big push, and then chase buyside from late last month. Ultimately I think the month will close red however.
I see short term trade opportunities both to the down and upside.
Gentleman's OXY?Got FOMO'ed in b/c WEB kept buying? Take measure to protect yourself from a potential drop in the short term:
It started with negative divergence in March, noticing that volume did not follow through after the breakout, it might end up with a H&S formation that project to the low 40's (blue lines).
That region happens to coincide with:
- the yellow trendline with multiple tops in the past, which can now function as support;
- an interesting retracement level;
- a volume profile wedge.
This is a short term set up based on technical, invalidation above 70.
With the intention to (partially) take over, it makes sens for a whale to keep buying regardless whether price goes up or down.
Assess your own situation as it might differ.
Energy development at the bottomHello trenders,
I show you today a solid company with strong backup and investors.
High potential on the upside, undervalued and part of utility sector it makes it a hot stock.
Given the circumstances in EU the price will go up starting by this winter.
Perfect for your portfolio diversification, good for short or long term.
Good luck.
Be wise don´t work for money, make money work for you.
EUEURUSD Will likely head back to parity here. DXY looks very Bullish and the inverse nature should see EU drop here
EURUSD ready to trade below parityEURUSD is showing strong potential of trading below the breakeven parity level and I highly believe that by the end of August we could break the parity level and trade below it for the rest of 2022.
Looking at price action on this one I see 0 reasons for buying, in fact all we are forming is constant lower highs and lower lows... which suggests we are in tune for more bearish momentum if this process continues.
We just came out of a build up range followed by a bearish flag pattern... momentum is strong and I highly believe, based on what I see, that we'll be heading south bound for now.
EUR/USD shortEUR/USD rejected from this important level. $DXY looking very bullish, so I expect to see EUR/USD around $1.01 very soon.
EU ScalpLittle scalp on EU which could pay out over the Asia session, if you check DXY we got a Pennant formation aswell. Price appears to want to use the POC to gain momentum.
EURUSD damnso let me get this one out here, looking for these lows to get broken. It may not happen,we'll see!
EU SinsemillaFirst EU analysis was spot on, delivered great profits, now if you missed the reentry on a pullback above the range, you can use this 4H for continuation long as we finish green.
EURUSD Outlook 8/6Was expecting EU to fill the daily imbalance last week, however it just barely pierced it then started breaking structure to the downside, this is a bearish signal in my opinion, my outlook remains bearish unless it decides to move to fill that imbalance. Targets are 1.00588 level and 0.99521 levels. Monitoring intraday PA for trade opportunities with a preference for shorts.
EUR/USD seems nice to trade next weekHello everybody. I was looking for something interesting on market and found this formation on EU very interesting. Look here. We are creating a huge channel from 1.011 to 1.025 now. Once we break 1.02550 or 1.010 we will run 'to the Moon' or backwards 'to the Hell'. SO, I just placed alerts for 1.02550 and 1.010 so I can open long or short on both of these prices. This is the simplest way to trade and this is always work, because this is how economy works.
My TP for long is the nearest level and this is about 1.03. My TP for short is 1.00. SL depends on your own risk-management .
Also, if you are a experienced enough you can trade inside this channel. But this is always way riskier than trade breakthrough.
*We have some really BIG fundamental things going on, so all the market could be very shaky.
Have a good weekend and good luck next week guys. Always yours Fridrex ;)
EURUSDInside bar weekly chart likely to see price soar to a 1:1 here, amazing run of trades we have had on this DXY fall, be sure to check them out.
EURUSD - The bigger picture this weekHi Team
EURUSD is a pair I have been watching for some time now.
We have been slowly creeping up towards the descending channel resistance on the daily timeframe (marked on chart).
More than any other pair, EU tends to follow channel boundaries closely.
Last week saw the FED rake hike 75PTS.
What does this mean? It means that we can expect USD strength. This is typically not found immediately following any news release, as market volatility needs to die down. I expect that it will be the middle of this week that we see the beginning of a medium term USD Bull run.
The trades we are looking for are as follows:
1.) Scalp BUY of EU up to the sell zone indicated (I will post a more detailed analysis of this shortly)
2.) Initial Scalp SELL of EU to ascending corrective support (marked on chart - detailed analysis coming shortly)
3.) Scalp to swing SELL of EU once ascending corrective support broken
We want to capitalise as much as possible on smaller moves before entering a larger one, if we can.
NEWS:
Monday 0800 GMT - Expecting a rally of EUR from the IFO business climate assessment. This fits in with stage one.
Tuesday from 1200 GMT - Multiple moderate impact USD events, primarily the HPI. This is expected to raise, which would be bullsih for USD, and would likely coincide with EURUSD bear run.
Wednesday is a HUGE news day. Expect a degree of consolidation after initial drop, with some moderate impact news related to the Euro in the morning. The afternoon (GMT) will show high volatility, especially during and just after the FED interest rate and monetary policy decisions.
Thursday sees the annualised GDP Q2 from the US treasury, but this tends to weigh less than the initial release. Positive news would drive EU further down.
Summarily:
Expect Stage 1 Sun/Mon
Stage 2 Tues with consolidation weds am
Stage 3 Weds afternoon/Thursday - THIS is the big move
Now that I have covered the main expectations and market conditions, I will post subsequent analysis for these specific trades.
I hope you like what I do - I put a lot of effort into my analysis, and it shows - last week my ideas would have garnered any readers over 300 pips of profit.
Don't forget my FREE channel, and as always please like, comment and subscribe - I want to know your thoughts!
Be kind, Trade safe
DrBear
EURO bulls might take a little break and then go up towards 500!Euro bulls are having trouble to stay above 250 and I don't expect them to break up towards 300 early next week either, even though they could always surprise me. I expect them to reach 500, but I think its safer to wait for a re-test of parity first or for a clean break above 250, so they would actually manage to stay above. So for me the week will start in waiting mode. If we start with a downmove...I will wait for when it stops, if at the 100 level again or if it breaks below, towards parity.
EURCAD SHORT FROM 1.34 TO 1.22Trend is strongly down; RSI is below 20 on the weekly. Gonna wait for a strong bounce to a clear resistance. 1.34 is the clearest resistance and easiest trade that I see. 300 pip bounce before selling
EURUSD 4H EURUSD on the 4H is making good set up, we have this strong contraction and price has made bullish price action above the low, we can look for the market to turn imbalanced, this goes with my other set ups, especially the DXY set up posted below.
EURUSDEURUSD Breaks Balance and is building volume, a break above the POC could see price back into this balanced range, I will attach my view on DXY also.
EURUSDEURUSD Pullsback to orderblock, if you were following my previous EURUSD Post we sought out the 1.0140 level as a good level to long from, this level has now given up a nice reward if you missed it, look to capitalise on the move from the Daily chart.
Euro slides on Nordstrom squeezeThe euro has taken a nasty tumble today. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0144, down 0.76%.
The energy crisis surrounding Nord Stream 1, a key channel for Russian gas exports to Europe continues to simmer. Perhaps the pipeline should be referred to as 'Nord Brook 1', after Gazprom, the Russian energy giant, warned it will cut flows through the pipeline to just 20% of capacity starting Wednesday, claiming "technical issues". The EU has charged that the move is politically motivated, but Vladimir Putin is holding the better hand of cards and has no compunction about weaponising energy exports to the West.
The EU has scrambled to scale back its energy dependence on Moscow and announced today that member states had agreed on a voluntary reduction of 15% in natural gas imports. The deal was reached at lightning speed, reflecting the tremendous apprehension in Brussels about an energy crisis this winter. Still, the agreement has apparently been watered down, with exemptions for members that are not directly linked to EU gas pipelines and are completely dependent on Russia. The latest squeeze on Nord Stream 1 has unnerved investors and sent the euro sharply lower.
With the war in Ukraine dragging on and a potential energy crisis looming, it's no surprise that German confidence indicators are under pressure. Ifo Business Sentiment slipped to 88.6 in June, down from 92.2 in May. The soft reading was accompanied by a warning from the Ifo Institute, which warned of a looming recession in Germany, due to soaring energy prices and the possibility of a gas shortage in Europe's largest economy. On Wednesday, Germany releases GfK Consumer Climate, which is expected to fall to -28.9 in August, down from -27.4 in July. The index has been steadily weakening and has been mired in negative territory since October 2021.
All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, with a live meeting that will include a supersize rate hike. The markets are expecting a 75bp increase for a second straight meeting, but a massive 100bp hike cannot be ruled out. A 75bp move could be met with a yawn by the US dollar, while a 100bp increase would be a surprise and likely boost the greenback.
EUR/USD continues to test support at 1.0191. The next support level is 1.0105
There is resistance at 1.0304 and 1.0390
EUR/USD shrugs as German confidence slipsThe euro is in positive territory at the start of the week. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0245, up 0.30%.
The US dollar lost some of its lustre last week and the euro took advantage. EUR/USD posted its first winning week in a month and pulled some distance away from the parity line.
The euro has posted gains today but there was some alarming data out of Germany. Ifo Business Sentiment dropped to 88.6 in June, down sharply from 92.2 in May and shy of the consensus estimate of 90.2. The reading marked the lowest level in more than two years and was accompanied by an unusually grim message from the head of the Ifo Institute. Klaus Wohlrabe said that a recession in Germany was "knocking on the door" due to high energy prices and the possibility of gas shortages faced by Germany.
The Nord Stream 1 pipeline opened on Thursday as scheduled after being shut for maintenance but only at about 40% capacity, which was the case before it shut down. At that level, Germany may need to ration gas in order to reach its target of 90% storage capacity before winter sets in. The EU has suggested that member countries scale back their gas needs by 15% starting August 1st, but already some members are pushing back and demanding exemptions, making it uncertain if this voluntary plan will get off the ground.
The EU is clearly worried that Russia will weaponise its energy exports to Europe, which has implemented sanctions against Moscow due to the invasion of Ukraine. With each member state having to worry about its own citizens having sufficient gas in the winter, we could see cracks appear in the EU's attempt to have a unified stance against Russia.
EUR/USD continues to test support at 1.0191. The next support level is 1.0105
There is resistance at 1.0304 and 1.0390
