EU
EUR/USD: Your OPPORTUNITIES for the WEEK Hey tradomaniacs,
this is just meant to be a weekly preparation and shows that EUR/USD is currently right at a significant level.
If the Key-Resistance-Zone can`t hold and price breaks through trendline we could get a potential BUY-SIGNAL!
If the market rejects of the Key-Resistance and Trendline we could get a potential SELL-SIGNAL!
LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =)
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
EURUSD Trade ideaWait for the retest or a close above the resistance for a long trade for the target of 1.109-1.1100
EURUSD dailyWe have to take price action as it is developing. DM qualifier 3 is OK - bearish pre breakout candle with small shadow. If we project its low to close difference it does not reach the trendline. New candle opened with a gap over trendline.
Weekly Camarilla R3 is the target for now. That is also where DM breakout projection sends the price.
My belief is that the bullish swaying drives are due to the macro divergence with eu-us bond yields differential on daily-weekly as we demonstrated in our previous post.
For educational purposes only.
Euro on the edge...The breakdown keeps rolling in. April candle is likely (1 day left) to close below that minor trendline on monthly that we broke.
Rejection candles on daily indicate the daily trend breakout failed. If price makes another push it will be to the upper side of quarterly opening range from where we should see a bearish push anyway due to bullish weakness. In fact, the major breakdown took place in 2014 and it sends price to 0.85, we are still working it out...
In May we should see some serious bearish action.
For educational purposes only.
Top Absolute Correlation 1 day
1 EURUSD - USDCHF -97.6%
2 EURUSD - USDPLN -93.7%
3 EURUSD - USDSEK -91.6%
4 EURUSD - USDHUF -87.3%
5 EURUSD - USDMXN -84.6%
6 EURUSD - USDCNH -83.3%
7 EURUSD - USDSGD -83.2%
8 EURUSD - EURPLN -82.1%
9 EURUSD - NZDUSD 80.2%
10 EURUSD - USDNOK -78.2%
Breakout analysisIn my previous post I noted that in cases of contrarian move price will end Fibonacci R1 weekly resistance. Move exhausted itself already.
Though DeMark projection sends slightly here - but classic DM projections work only in 60 percent of times. If we do more conservative breakout projection (for the current move) we already outperformed it.
The current ongoing breakout is mirroring the previous major bullish breakout having 1 and 3 breakout DeMark (DM) qualifiers missing. So they both will end as false breaks. Those are unnatural unsustained breakout actions, most likely from ECB and SNB. The national banks can somewhat push the price but not sustain the moves in the long run.
The major bearish breakdown was different and more serious (natural) on the other hand and it sends price below all the lows.
Note weekly CPR is very thin and we noted that this week is going be volatile. Thin CPR dont act as strong support (though it did in the beginning) - they are usually pierced back and forth with volatile moves.
For educational purposes only.
EXY - Bearish engulfingBearish engulfing is one of the most reliable trading patterns (along with morning star) and in 80 percent cases generates a bearish reversal. Here, bearish candle engulfed 2 previous days what is rather significant. Price usually pulls back to the middle of bearish engulfing pattern before further drop. That is what we observing on Euro index.
We also reached weekly R3 reversal level.
Note also how price reacts at Camarilla S3-R3 reversal levels (those levels contain so called "value zone")
and Camarilla S4-R4 breakout levels (so called "floor and roof")
For educational purposes only.
Historical breakdownEURUSD historical breakdown anatomy.
That trendline channel accurately connects historical lows going back to the launching of EURO in 2000.
The rest of tools used are static and plot automatically ahead of time. It is remarkable how price responded to those pivot and IB levels.
For educational purposes only.
EURUSD Cam S4 R4 yearlyIn this post we analyzed the breakdowns (breakouts) of Camarilla S4 R4 yearly pivots, so called yearly floor and roof levels and what impact those rather significant events had on EURUSD weekly chart. As you see, each such breakdown generated violent moves (yellow) that often lasted into the next year. If there S4-R4 violation did not generate such a move it was because those levels were broken during the previous year or two and proceeding yearly break exhausted itself. There was no such violation in 2018 and 2019 to give us reasons to believe that the current break will not succeed.
Besides that, we have got a thinnest yearly CPR in EURUSD history. As we noted earlier thin CPRs are forecasters of volatility (and volatility is the major sign of crisis). We ought also notice CPR alternation principle (thin CPR trend - wide CPR congestion) that is often observed as demonstrated above (1,2,3 in late 1990s). By this principle, 2020 should be a trending market, while in 2021 we will see a retrace (recovery) and congestion.
For educational purposes only.
EURUSD: back to 1997? Dejavu? Are we back in 1997? I found it remarkable that this March price stopped at Fibonacci pivot R1 this year, literally to the pip.
So I checked how price reacts at yearly Fib pivots and this is what I found.
Seems like history repeats itself:) 2020 is gonna be a big show in the EU, though it is already.
EURUSD drop to 1.04That is what a new science is telling us and what I am preparing for. Big picture.
April 16th 1 pm candle had a decisive long term impact.
Top Absolute Correlation 1hr
1 EURUSD - USDCHF -99.0%
2 EURUSD - EURJPY 97.1%
3 EURUSD - CHFJPY 95.5%
4 EURUSD - EURX 94.0%
5 EURUSD - EURSGD 93.8%
6 EURUSD - CHFSGD 91.7%
7 EURUSD - EURTRY 90.1%
8 EURUSD - USDHUF -89.4%
9 EURUSD - USDPLN -89.3%
10 EURUSD - EURGBP 89.0%
Target CAM S5Price is likely to end at weekly S5 (did not plot that but its green target). Demand line is almost flat. Sharp supply.
It is also likely that it will go lower.
This is no financial advise
Top Absolute Correlation 1 hr
1 EURUSD - USDCHF -98.6%
2 EURUSD - EURJPY 96.4%
3 EURUSD - EURSGD 93.6%
4 EURUSD - USDPLN -93.5%
5 EURUSD - EURX 93.4%
6 EURUSD - CHFJPY 93.3%
7 EURUSD - USDHUF -92.1%
8 EURUSD - CHFSGD 91.8%
9 EURUSD - EURTRY 89.7%
10 EURUSD - XAUEUR -89.1%
EURUSD_SHORTPrice at ranging at strong support
Mid-level bearish channel
Expecting price to form range beneath support
Waiting for signal once new range is formed- EL around resistance
TP- channel/support crossover
EURUSD April 21 Tech Overview
From the news front we are waiting for the upcoming virtual EU leader meeting on April 23.
Virtual means that you are completely video recorded and this means less truth and more selfish.
Consensus on it is unlikely between so many participants as we can see how hard it is going during virus crisis situation.
The main problem not only how to act now, but already how to live together in long term for them.
So on minor and mt tf's we can see clear lvl around 1.09 that must be protected by bears to archive new down wave ahead.
We can mark trend is down until we stay under 1.09 / tgt 1.0640 as first and lower if broken to the downside.
Buy against the trend cud be established at 1.0804 and 1.0774, but it is only for high risk scalp players who can control risk under their own MM trading system.
Bulls need to regain 1.09 lvl to deny negative expectations. Longs are rising and this is interesting how bulls cud stand with more and more martingale. Also a point to think about.
Cheers!
EURUSD 4HR Failed Breakout To Retry?EURUSD sits around 1.0850 on an important support level. The 4-hour chart is showing us that we may see retest support before an attempt to break higher
The levels we must keep in mind are the following: 1.06509, 1.07710, 1.08263 - 1.09063, 1.09884, 1.11334
What do we have here?
✔️ Bullish Triangle Formation
✔️ Breakout on Multiple Timeframes
✔️ Attempting to Test Near Term Support Level
Thank you, Connor,
Please feel free to follow me to get more analysis. On Tradingview I share 1hr, 4hr, 1D, 1W charting analysis across major instruments only.
EXY - oversupplyEuro index chart. Monthly. Price is driven by global supply and demand. And what we are observing, is a clear oversupply of euro (all selling) and weakening demand (less international interest in euro) on universal scale. Buyers failed to break the supply line and April opened below the demand line with a gap.
Top Absolute Correlation
1 EURUSD - USDX -96.8%
2 EURUSD - USDPLN -95.8%
3 EURUSD - USDCZK -92.7%
4 EURUSD - EURSGD 88.9%
5 EURUSD - EURCHF 86.7%
6 EURUSD - USDSGD -81.6%
7 EURUSD - USDHUF -79.9%
8 EURUSD - EURJPY 78.7%
9 EURUSD - EURCAD 74.7%
10 EURUSD - HK50 70.5%
EURUSD TD outlook for 4 hrsThat is how we see it, pretty simple. One can use ATR stop for stops (pretty accurate tool), which is based on average true range (the input can be changed). The broken demand line is more important than descending one (trendline value is measure by the number of consequent highs or lows above the extremums).
I saw some of you draw a descending triangle but by TD rules we can not make a triangle, because there is no relevant TD point below the top TD P5.
We have 2 horizontal levels below on the way which price has to get through (with struggle of course) and to retest those after the breaks (!).
DM projection sends price into the "free fall zone". We will see.
Good luck!
THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVISE. You are solely responsible for you trading decisions:)
Top Positive Correlation 4 hrs
1 EURUSD - NZDUSD 83.2%
2 EURUSD - AUDUSD 80.5%
3 EURUSD - GBPUSD 79.7%
4 EURUSD - AUDJPY 78.2%
5 EURUSD - US2000 75.8%
6 EURUSD - GER30 74.9%
7 EURUSD - SPA35 73.7%
8 EURUSD - AUDCHF 71.3%
9 EURUSD - FRA40 70.7%
10 EURUSD - AUDSGD 69.3%
EURUSD TDN3 breakdown validI know it is hard to understand this if you do not study the "The New Science. Technical Analysis" (1994) of T. DeMark and "Methods of Wall Street Master "(1991) of V. Sperandeo on trends and trendlines . But price is projected to drop to 2000 lows with retest of the last minor demand line which we are about to break (with its consequent retest that is likely to follow). It is sad that most of modern traders still live before 1990s, engaging in shamanism, art and intuition (and worst, imposing their subjective art on others) when there are proven scientific methods of price prediction. I am not the best new science analyst but that is what I identified and is pretty obvious.
Top Absolute Correlation
1 EURUSD - USDX -96.8%
2 EURUSD - USDPLN -95.8%
3 EURUSD - USDCZK -92.7%
4 EURUSD - EURSGD 88.9%
5 EURUSD - EURCHF 86.7%
6 EURUSD - USDSGD -81.6%
7 EURUSD - USDHUF -79.9%
8 EURUSD - EURJPY 78.7%
9 EURUSD - EURCAD 74.7%
10 EURUSD - HK50 70.5%
DM breakdown validHere I did 2 DM projections as regard where EURO index is gonna land.
There are 3 ways to do DM post breakout projections.
1. From uppermost shadow to the trendline - works 60 %
2. From the shadow of a candle with highest close to the trendline - works 90 %
3. From the highest innermost shadow to the trendline - works 90 %
Then you just clone the measurement to the breakdown point and project it. Very simple. Good luck!
Top Absolute Correlation 4 hrs
1 EURUSD - USDCHF -99.1%
2 EURUSD - USDHUF -97.2%
3 EURUSD - EURHUF -94.6%
4 EURUSD - USDSEK -94.4%
5 EURUSD - USDSGD -94.1%
6 EURUSD - AUDUSD 94.0%
7 EURUSD - USDCNH -93.5%
8 EURUSD - US500 93.2% (S&P 500 Index)
9 EURUSD - AUDCAD 92.5%
10 EURUSD - GBPUSD 92.5%
