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EUR-CAD

EUR: Current Sentiment DriversLatest Developments: April 26 – Spain’s coronavirus cases increased to 3,488,469 (+6,500) while Italian cases increased to 3,971,108 (+8,438) and French cases increased to 5,503,996 (+5,952). April 22 – At their April meeting, the ECB kept all three key rates unchanged as expected. Additionally, President Lagarde confirmed that the central bank had not discussed any phasing out of the bond buying programme as it would be premature, adding that the economy is still “clouded with uncertainty.” March 17 – Final HICP for February remained unchanged from January at 0.9% Y/Y; although, Core HICP was confirmed at 1.1%, compared to January’s 1.4%. March 9 – Revised GDP for Q4 printed at -0.7% Q/Q and -4.9% Y/Y compared to -0.6% Q/Q and -5.0% Y/Y for the flash estimates. February 1 – Europe’s Unemployment Rate for December remained unchanged at 8.3%. Future Sentiments Shifts: EUR’s outlook remains highly dependant on the coronavirus outbreak and Europe’s economic outlook. Concerns over Europe’s coronavirus outlook have risen since late last year, with many countries now suffering second waves and re implementing lockdowns. Although countries appear better equipped compared to their initial outbreaks, Europe’s coronavirus outlook poses significant downside risks to their economies. Additionally, although the EU is rolling out a vaccine programme, it has faced several obstacles and widespread criticism. All in all, while coronavirus concerns remain high in Europe, risks for EUR will be to the downside, especially when compared to the currencies of countries that are managing their outbreaks and vaccine rollouts more effectively. Primary Drivers: European Central Bank – Europe’s monetary policy outlook remains key to EUR’s fundamental outlook. EUR is likely to be supported when the ECB holds a hawkish stance and begin tightening policy, but come under pressure when the central bank holds a dovish stance and is expected to ease policy. Month End Flows – During the last few trading days of every month, EUR is usually influenced by month end flows as banks and institutions rebalance their books and settle transactions. Although not always the case, more often than not, month end flows tend to be EUR positive especially against GBP. USD –EURUSD is the most traded currency pair in the world, making up 24% of daily forex trades according to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). As such, movements in USD often influence EUR, with EUR weakening when USD strengthens and EUR strengthening when USD weakens.
by thunderpips
1
EUR - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSFUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BEARISH 1. Virus Situation The outlook for EUR remains tied to the EU's ability to overcome its coronavirus pandemic. At present, the outlook appears bleak when we only consider the virus cases, with many European countries entering third waves and reinstating or prolonging economically damaging lockdown restrictions. However, the vaccinations roll out has seen some improvement recently and with the number of doses expected to ramp up substantially in May the outlook from a virus point of view is starting to look better. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB Even though the FED and BOE are nowhere close to hawkish, they are far less dovish than the ECB, who has decided to front-load asset purchases to keep EU bond yields from rising too fast. The string of contradicting comments also shows a possible growing rift among the GC which could prove problematic when it comes to potentially altering policy in the months ahead. The bank remains one of the most bearish members, but the continued battle between the hawks and doves has seen some participants starting to abandon their dovish stance on the bank and is starting to consider whether tapering might be closer than previously thought. 3. The country’s economic developments The vaccination roll out and additional lockdowns has weighed on EU growth prospects, with growth differentials for the EU versus the US and UK widening. Fiscal support is another factor where the EU Recovery Fund is yet to be ratified while the US and UK have both rolled out additional stimulus and plans more in the months ahead (US). Having said that, the recent economic data such as PMI’s suggest the hit to the economy from the most recent lockdowns has not been as bad as previously feared and we have heard plenty of participants have started to position themselves for a recovery in the Eurozone. As a result, we have adjusted our bias for the EUR from Bearish to Weak Bearish.
by thunderpips
EUR: Current Sentiment DriversLatest Developments: April 20 – Spain’s coronavirus cases increased to 3,435,840 (+7,486) while Italian cases increased to 3,891,055 (+12,066) and French cases increased to 5,339,320 (+42,498). March 17 – Final HICP for February remained unchanged from January at 0.9% Y/Y; although, Core HICP was confirmed at 1.1%, compared to January’s 1.4%. March 11 – At their March meeting, the ECB kept all three key rated unchanged as expected, and although the size of PEPP and APP remain unchanged, the ECB stated that purchases under PEPP in the next quarter are to be conducted at a significantly higher pace. March 9 – Revised GDP for Q4 printed at -0.7% Q/Q and -4.9% Y/Y compared to -0.6% Q/Q and -5.0% Y/Y for the flash estimates. February 1 – Europe’s Unemployment Rate for December remained unchanged at 8.3%. Future Sentiments Shifts: EUR’s outlook remains highly dependant on the coronavirus outbreak and Europe’s economic outlook. Concerns over Europe’s coronavirus outlook have risen since late last year, with many countries now suffering second waves and re implementing lockdowns. Although countries appear better equipped compared to their initial outbreaks, Europe’s coronavirus outlook poses significant downside risks to their economies. Additionally, although the EU is rolling out a vaccine programme, it has faced several obstacles and widespread criticism. All in all, while coronavirus concerns remain high in Europe, risks for EUR will be to the downside, especially when compared to the currencies of countries that are managing their outbreaks and vaccine rollouts more effectively. Primary Drivers: European Central Bank – Europe’s monetary policy outlook remains key to EUR’s fundamental outlook. EUR is likely to be supported when the ECB holds a hawkish stance and begin tightening policy, but come under pressure when the central bank holds a dovish stance and is expected to ease policy. Month End Flows – During the last few trading days of every month, EUR is usually influenced by month end flows as banks and institutions rebalance their books and settle transactions. Although not always the case, more often than not, month end flows tend to be EUR positive especially against GBP. USD –EURUSD is the most traded currency pair in the world, making up 24% of daily forex trades according to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS). As such, movements in USD often influence EUR, with EUR weakening when USD strengthens and EUR strengthening when USD weakens.
by thunderpips
2
EUR CAD SELL (EURO - CANADIAN DOLLAR)1. The BOC has been one of the least dovish central banks among the majors for the past couple of months, and in March, after a batch of much better than expect economic data the banks announced a discontinuation of their market functioning purchase programs in March, which saw participants expecting the bank to taper their QE program at the April meeting. 2. Even though the virus situation saw some participants getting cold feet about the bank moving forward with tapering the bank came out much more hawkish than was expected at their meeting today by doing all that was expected (tapering QE, upgrading growth outlook) and also brought forward their first interest rate hike expectation to 2022 from 2023, which is the first central bank among the majors to normalize policy and confirm market expectations for faster normalization (bullish for the CAD). 3. Compared to the EUR where the fundamental bias is still tilted to the downside based on a couple of various factors. Trade risks: 1. Any major negative catalyst which sparks big risk off flows in the market would be a big risk for the CAD as it could affect it negatively from a high beta point of view. 2. Any sudden deterioration in oil prices could also impact the CAD, so tomorrow’s climate summit will be important to keep on the radar (more med term also keeping the Iran nuclear deal in focus as well). 3. Continued USD weakness even though this should arguably be more positive for both the EUR and CAD, the EUR’s sensitivity to the dollar has once again made itself visible in the past few weeks, lending a hand to the EUR pushing higher, so any further strong moves lower in the USD could favour the UER more than the CAD.
by thunderpips
3
EURCAD LONG: Back to the 1.51800 area and beyondEURCAD could potentially move back to the 1.51800 area (and beyond) if the Demand zone, which was tested once before, holds for the second time around the 1.50700/800 area. A potential confirmation that the Demand zone would hold would be a combination of bullish price action (candlestick) and a relative increase in Volume (bullish pressure). Today is also a day full of CAD economic news, the CPI will be released around 2:30pm (CEST) and the BOC Monetary Report will be released at 4pm. High volatility is expected.
Long
by FXAristocrat
EURCAD for a lower low 🦐EURCAD is moving inside a descending channel. The market after the test of the trendline is now approaching the support area and according to Plancton's strategy is the market will break below we will set a nice short order. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
18
EURCAD facing bearish pressure, potential for further downside!Price has just seen a bearish breakout from the ascending trendline support-turned-resistance, and is now holding below the descending trendline resistance. We could potentially see further downside below the 1st resistance, in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback resistance, towards our 1st support, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. MACD is also holding below the 0 line, in line with our analysis. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Short
by TradeGATEHub
Long EURCAD: Potential move back to the 1.50000/50 area (SnD)EURCAD appears to be willing to move higher again after this morning's correction. 1) The market made a bullish leg up recently, hinting at the aggressive presence of the bulls. 2) The market is currently testing a valid Demand zone that was tested once before and is expected to hold for the second time. 3) The market is testing a horizontal Support level around the 1.49500 psychological level. Price action and Volume would be the determinant of the short-term future direction of the market; if these two confluence factors fail to deliver confirmations, the market might continue heading downwards for the remaining of the trading sessions today.
Long
by FXAristocrat
EURCAD facing bearish pressure, potential for a reversal!Price is holding below the moving average resistance, showing bearish pressure in line with our bearish bias. We could potentially see price reverse at our 1st resistance, which is in line with our 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and horizontal pullback resistance, and face further downside towards 1st support, in line with our 50% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing low support. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Short
by TradeGATEHub
1
EUR - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS1. Virus Situation The outlook for EUR remains tied to the EU's ability to overcome its coronavirus pandemic. At present, the outlook appears bleak, with many European countries entering third waves and reinstating or prolonging economically damaging lockdown restrictions. Vaccinations remain frustratingly slow, a result of ongoing supply constraints and rising anti-vaccine attitudes. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB Even though the FED and BOE are nowhere close to hawkish, they are far less dovish than the ECB, who has decided to front-load asset purchases to keep EU bond yields from rising too fast. The string of contradicting comments also shows a possible growing rift among the GC which could prove problematic when it comes to potentially altering policy in the months ahead. 3. The country’s economic developments The vaccination roll out and additional lockdowns has weighed on EU growth prospects, with growth differentials for the EU versus the US and UK widening. Fiscal support is another factor where the EU Recovery Fund is yet to be ratified while the US and UK have both rolled out additional stimulus and plans more in the months ahead (US). For the EUR’s growth and fundamental outlook to improve, it will need to overcome its ongoing vaccination frustrations and see a significant increase in the total number of citizens vaccinated.
by thunderpips
EURCAD analysisYesterday we looked at EURAUD. So far, things are going according to plan. Today there may be an additional opportunity. And now let's see EURCAD - since the beginning of this month we have an impulse rise. The downtrend was broken through it and now we expect an additional rise. The possibility to enter is right now- during the correction. And if you want confirmation, wait for a breakout. This will allow to enter with a target of 1.5120, and before that an important level will be 1.5050! Good luck!
Long
by ForexTrendline