EURGBP Channel Down sell signalThe EURGBP pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the November 16 2023 High. The recent Lower High rejection just above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) resembles both in terms of 1D RSI and price action the August 08 2024 Lower High.
Since that posted an initial correction of -3.62%, we expect an equivalent Bearish Leg to target 0.81750.
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EUR (Euro)
EUR/NZD BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
Bearish trend on EUR/NZD, defined by the red colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is overbought based on the BB upper band proximity, makes me expect a bearish rebound from the resistance line above and a retest of the local target below at 1.831.
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EURUSD 7 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Investors remain cautiously optimistic, balancing solid underlying economic data with persistent concerns over geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions.
Federal Reserve Outlook:
Market participants expect the Fed to maintain its cautious stance. Future monetary policy decisions will likely be data-dependent, especially as the central bank closely monitors inflation trends influenced by tariff-induced cost pressures.
Global Impact:
International markets are bracing for mixed outcomes. Trade tensions and the ripple effects from tariffs on major partners are expected to create uneven performance across regions, with Europe and Asia particularly in focus as they adjust to shifting supply chain dynamics.
Below is an assessment of the potential impact of today's USA Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, given the prevailing market sentiment:
Strong NFP Data:
A robust jobs report is likely to bolster the U.S. dollar, as improved employment figures can reinforce expectations for a tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
This outcome could increase investor confidence in the domestic economy; however, given existing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, the upside for risk assets might be tempered by renewed concerns about inflationary pressures.
Weak NFP Data:
A disappointing jobs report may weaken the U.S. dollar, as softer employment data could lead to expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy in the near term.
This scenario might trigger heightened market volatility, with investors shifting toward safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold, reflecting an amplified risk-off sentiment.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and we would expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With Today NFP, news volatility will determine for me for next week a clear direction.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹Price reached the Weak Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS.
🔹Technically on the 15m I’d expect price to continue bearish following the Bearish Swing and INT structures which aligns with the 4H Bearish INT Structure continuation to target the Weak INT Low.
🔹My concern is that the 4H Swing is Bullish, we mitigated the extreme discount and currently in the continuation to target the 4H Weak Swing High.
🔹I prefer to follow the 15m current bearish Structure till we align the 15m Swing with the 4H Swing.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low
EURNZD - Sell Setup at Clear Resistance ZoneEURNZD is currently trading in a clear resistance zone that has consistently acted as a barrier for bullish momentum. This area aligns with prior supply levels and could attract some seller interest.
If rejection patterns, such as bearish engulfing candles or long upper wicks, emerge, I anticipate a move toward 1.82800. However, a break above this zone could signal a potential shift in market sentiment.
This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation before jumping in.
Please boost this post, every like and comment drives me to bring you more ideas! I’d love to hear your perspective about this setup in the comments.
Best of luck , TrendDiva
Bullish bounce?EUR/USD is has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0354
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0290
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.0455
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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EUR_NZD POTENTIAL LONG|
✅EUR_NZD is about to retest a key structure level of 1.8250
Which implies a high likelihood of a move up
As some market participants will be taking profit from short positions
While others will find this price level to be good for buying
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bullish correction
LONG🚀
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EURGBP Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURGBP for a selling opportunity around 0.83900 zone, EURGBP was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.83900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD - Short Scalp (ICT Concepts)Short scalp on EURUSD using ICT Concepts amongst my own methodologies.
Apologies for no sound, error with the microphone.
Was either expecting a bounce at this iFVG 12h highlighted in maroon, or lower prices. Resistance at the upper threshold of the iFVG indicates resistance, following by CPDAs. Decided to change my buy stop order to market sell.
- R2F Trading
Falling towards 38.2% Fibonacci support?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.0357
1st Support: 1.0291
1st Resistance: 1.0462
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0452
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0523
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.0345
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EUR/NZD Triangle Breakout (5.2.2025)The EUR/NZD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.8220
2nd Support – 1.8140
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EURUSD 5 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - EU PPI - US ADP/PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 5 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Investors remain cautious but are gradually finding footing after recent bouts of volatility linked to aggressive trade measures and policy uncertainty. The sentiment can best be described as a mix of risk aversion amid global trade tensions and a tentative willingness to engage as economic data remains broadly resilient.
The U.S. dollar has experienced modest strength but remains under pressure due to the broader uncertainty in trade dynamics and the potential for escalating tariffs, particularly from ongoing actions against major trade partners even with pause of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The target is Europe.
Federal Reserve Outlook:
While the recent policy stance has been one of a pause, the Fed is expected to continue monitoring inflationary trends closely. Any future adjustments to monetary policy are likely to be data-dependent, with the current sentiment suggesting that policymakers will remain cautious amid trade-induced uncertainties.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the Bearish iBOS, price confirmed the Swing pullback phase.
🔹We reached the Swing extreme demand which triggered a V-shape reaction indicating the bullish continuation.
🔹Price is currently targeting the liquidity (CHoCH) at 1.04342 (15m Swing High).
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish for the Bullish 4H Swing Continuation after reaching the Swing Extreme Demand.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹Swing turned bearish signaling the 4H/Daily bearish continuation.
🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, price pulled back with series of Bullish INT structures reaching the 4H Supply and the 15m Swing extreme.
🔹While the 4H Swing Structure is Bullish, 15m Swing still Bearish.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to continue bullish to sweep the 4H liquidity (Forming a Bullish
EURUSD: 4H Bullish Cross not so bullish historically.EURUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.247, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 21.205) and just formed a 4H Bullish Cross between the 1D MA100 and 1D MA200. This hasn't had a bullish effect in the past 12 months as the two times we saw it in 2024, it immediatelly market the top of the short term trend and caused pull backs to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Consequently we will use it as an instant sell signal (TP = 1.02625).
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Bearish drop off 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/GBP is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns wit the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8358
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that line sup with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.8387
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.8286
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURNOK: Buy Setup at Key Support ZoneOANDA:EURNOK is currently testing a significant demand zone. Previously, this area has acted as strong support, leading to bullish reactions. The recent decline into this zone suggests a potential for buyers to step in and drive prices higher.
A bullish confirmation, such as a strong rejection pattern, bullish engulfing candles, or long lower wicks, would increase the probability of a rebound. If buyers regain control, the price could move toward 11.7300 level.
This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation, like a rejection candle or volume spike before jumping in.
Please boost this post, every like and comment drives me to bring you more ideas! I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments.
Best of luck , TrendDiva
EUR/USD: Trump's Tariffs Impact Euro: Time for a Bounce?The EUR/USD pair kicked off the new trading week with a resounding bearish tone, plummeting to its lowest level since mid-January below 1.0210. Despite its oversold condition in the short term, investors continue to exercise caution in the Euro, fearing the lingering impact of US President Donald Trump's tariff threats.
Over the weekend, Trump's administration announced sweeping trade tariffs on key allies and competitors alike. The tariffs, which range from 10% to 25%, are set to apply to imports from Mexico, Canada, China, and potentially the European Union. When questioned by reporters on Sunday about the prospect of imposing tariffs on European imports, Trump remained coy about the details, merely stating that it would happen, but without specifying timing or severity.
This uncertain environment has instilled fear among market participants, causing the EUR/USD to decline sharply. However, as we navigate the complex landscape of global trade tensions, we believe that a short-term retracement is imminent. This potential correction could be sparked by investors seeking to reassess their positions and capitalize on any temporary relief from the recent downtrend.
A Weekend Gap Opportunity
In the near term, our primary focus is on the weekend gap that formed between 1.0170 and 1.0218. This gap represents a critical level that EUR/USD must fill to restore equilibrium in the market. If price action were to bounce from this gap, it could create a lucrative trading opportunity for traders looking to profit from a short-term recovery.
Given the extreme bearishness surrounding the EUR, a retracement could be achievable if the market decides to close the weekend gap. While this may seem modest by some standards, any trading opportunity that arises from the EUR/USD's oversold condition is worth exploring.
Conclusion
As the EUR/USD pair continues to grapple with uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff threats, we expect a short-term retracement to emerge in the coming trading sessions. This potential correction could provide a window of opportunity for traders to capitalize on the weekend gap, potentially leading to a temporary bounce.
While the long-term implications of these trade tensions remain unclear, our focus remains on the immediate market conditions. As the EUR/USD navigates this complex landscape, we remain poised to take advantage of any opportunities that arise from the market's natural oscillations.
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EURCAD: Trump Trade - Short Europe Vs CanadaFundamentals:
Canada looks better as it could settle some solution with Trump
Europe can't politically and economically agree on buying US cars and agriculture
Technicals:
EURCAD is in the range between 1.5113 and 1.4283 and hit the top of it recently.
Hence, odds are in favor of sell supporting fundamentals above.
Trade setup:
Short current (1.4907)
Stop 1.5301
Take profit 1.4283 (anywhere below 1.44)
EURUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.04000 zone, EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.04000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
WEEKLY RECAP - Week 1, 2025The most important thing to reflect on each week is NOT your profit and loss balance.
Instead, reflect on these three questions:
- Did I follow my core habits for success?
- Am I ready to let my attachments from last week go?
- Am I focusing on this current moment, or a destination I'm trying to reach?
I won't put a whole lot of words here. It's all in the video, but here are the three setups from last week, and here is my notion journal so you can follow along.
USDJPY
EURUSD
EURUSD
Notion Journal
Enjoy the ride,
-Gio