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Decoding Forex Mysteries: USDCHF & EURGBP Reaction to Rate HikesWelcome to the intriguing world of Forex, where currencies act at their own rhythm, sometimes defying expectations and confounding even the most experienced traders. In this article, we are going to unravel the “mysteries” surrounding the reactions of USDCHF and EURGBP to recent interest rate hikes. We will dive into the realms of market anticipation, monetary policy statements, and the significance of staying ahead in this dynamic landscape. 1. The Resilience of USDCHF As the Swiss National Bank (SNB) raises interest rates from 1.5% to 1.75%, market observers brace for the anticipated downward movement of the USDCHF. However, contrary to expectations, the currency pair displays remarkable resilience. Let's explore the underlying factors: a) Priced-in Expectations: The forex market is renowned for its ability to assimilate information in advance. It is likely that market participants had already factored in the interest rate hike, blunting the immediate impact on USDCHF. Such anticipatory behavior highlights the importance of staying attuned to prevailing sentiment and analyzing market positioning. b) Comparative Interest Rates: Understanding the relative interest rates of different currencies is paramount. If the rate hike in Switzerland was aligned with or lower than market expectations, and other major currencies offered more attractive rates, investors might have favored those currencies, mitigating the downward pressure on USDCHF. c) Monetary Policy Statement Outlook: Monetary policy statements accompanying interest rate decisions provide crucial insights into central banks' future intentions (you can usually watch them live on YouTube 30 minutes after the data release or on Bloomberg type of channels). Since the SNB's statement revealed a cautious and neutral stance, it has tempered the impact of the rate hike on USDCHF. Market participants pay close attention to forward guidance, as it shapes expectations regarding future policy actions and influences currency movements. 2. The Curious Behavior of EURGBP Let us now turn our attention to EURGBP, which failed to sustain a short sentiment following the Bank of England's interest rate hike from 4.5% to 5.00% (versus the expected 4.75%) and left a nasty week. To understand this curious behavior, we delve into the following factors: a) Market Expectations: The forex market is often driven by expectations and anticipatory positioning. If traders had already priced in the interest rate hike, the actual announcement might not have triggered a significant market reaction. Therefore, the lack of sustained short sentiment in EURGBP could be attributed to market participants adjusting their positions in advance. The GBP was up already by 4% within the last month against major currencies, so a big chunk of market was already longing EG for the expected short term recovery (guilty, but we also made a 2.9% profit closure on this). b) Monetary Policy Outlook: Beyond interest rate changes, central banks' monetary policy outlooks play a vital role in shaping currency dynamics. The accompanying statement from the Bank of England, which shed light on their future plans, indicated a more gradual approach to tightening or expressed concerns about economic conditions. Such cues influence market sentiment and limit the downward pressure on EURGBP. In case of UK, this is already not a good look with their inflation rates :/ Now, you may ask: “Investroy, what do we do if fundamentals don’t exhibit the expected economical impact?” Don’t worry, we got you! A Prerequisite for Success In the ever-evolving forex market, staying ahead of the curve is crucial. To navigate the intricacies and maximize opportunities, traders must adopt a proactive approach: a) Monitor Central Bank Communications: Understanding central banks' intentions requires careful analysis of their policy statements, speeches, and press conferences. These sources provide valuable clues about future policy decisions and can guide trading strategies. b) Assess Economic Indicators: Keep a keen eye on economic indicators that impact currency valuations, such as GDP, inflation, and employment data. These indicators provide a foundation for understanding a country's economic health and can influence currency movements. c) Stay Informed of Geopolitical Developments: Geopolitical events, such as trade disputes or political instability, can significantly impact forex markets. Being aware of these developments and their potential consequences on currency movements is crucial for staying ahead. d) Analyze Market Sentiment: Sentiment analysis, gauging the collective psychology of market participants, can offer valuable insights. Monitoring market sentiment through various indicators, such as positioning data and sentiment surveys, helps identify potential shifts and align trading strategies accordingly. e) Embrace Technological Tools: Utilize advanced trading platforms and tools that provide real-time data, customizable charts, and algorithmic trading capabilities. These resources empower traders to analyze market trends, spot patterns, and execute trades swiftly. Bonus) this one is a little subjective, but markets are very cyclic, if something is oversold, but everybody is expecting further bearish move, be sure there is a retracement coming before that happens 😊 Stay safe and enjoy your day!
Education
by Investroy
23
EURGBP Expectations: UK Inflation and BoE's Decision this WeekOn Monday, the pound reached its highest level against the euro in 10 months, at 85.25 pence, as investors await the British inflation data and the upcoming Bank of England decision. However, the currency pair quickly rebounded to the support level of the previous week, at 85.42 pence, but is perhaps now tracking down again. In recent weeks, the sterling has experienced a rallied against the EUR and USD (particularly against the USD, marking its largest weekly gain since December 2022). This surge can be attributed to economic data suggesting that inflation in Britain is more persistent compared to the United States and Europe. As a result, traders have started factoring in more interest rate hikes from the Bank of England, leading to increased yields on British government bonds and bolstering the pound. Additionally, investors' expectations have been heightened by recent data showing a faster-than-anticipated growth in British wages. Currently, the pound is down 0.26% against the dollar, trading at $1.278. However, it remains close to the 14-month high of $1.285 reached on Friday. British inflation data is scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Economists predict that the headline Consumer Price Index will have slightly cooled to 8.5% year-on-year, down from 8.7% in April. However, they anticipate that the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, will remain steady at 6.8%. If these figures align with expectations, the pound could strengthen further due to the anticipation of additional interest rate increases by the Bank of England. Nevertheless, any unexpected results could introduce volatility into the market, and perhaps validate the recent rebound in the EUR. On Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its decision on interest rates, with investors and economists expecting a 25 basis point hike to 4.75%. There is little uncertainty surrounding this decision, so traders will closely examine the bank's forward guidance. Indications of future interest rate hikes are likely to bolster the GBP.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR GBP - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSISBNP Paribas 2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts Euro Can Secure Capital Inflows The bank maintains a broadly constructive stance towards the Euro. It expects that the ECB rate hikes and quantitative tightening will encourage foreign inflows and domestic repatriation. Although BNP expects that energy prices will strengthen, it does not expect a return to 2021 levels. Overall, the bank expects gradual EUR/USD gains over the medium term. Pound Vulnerable on Weak UK Fundamentals BNP expects that the Bank of England (BoE) will have to increase interest rates further, but does not consider that market expectations of rate hikes to 5.75% will be met which will sap currency support. It also considers that the BoE is in a no-win situation. Even if the central bank continues to raise rates, BNP also expects that market confidence in Sterling would suffer to the perception of a long-term inflation problem. It adds; “Both of these developments would be GBP-negative, in our view.” The bank also maintains a negative stance on UK fundamentals. It adds; “We expect GBP to remain structurally weak due to UK growth underperforming its peers, remaining below-trend, and its persistent current-account deficit that requires foreign funding.” Overall, BNP expects that the Euro to Pound (EUR/GBP) exchange rate will trade close to 0.88 during the forecast period.
Long
by thunderpips
3
EURGBP to 0.85? Anyone else with me?Hey Traders! 👋 For Day 30/100 of our challenge, we will look at EURGBP for downside potential this week/month Technicals: - Overall downtrend - Break below 0.858 support - Support created at 0.0.854 - Expecting retest back to 0.858 for potential shorts - Or a break and retest of 0.854 - Target is 0.85 - Invalid thesis when 0.861 is breached to the upside Fundamentals - Expecting less room for ECB to rate hikes; they will this month by 25bp but sound less hawkish - Expecting GBP to be stronger given better domestic data and an aggressive peak rate pricing That's all for today. Forecasts these week on TradingView has been awesome. Follow and stay in touch 🥂
Short
by rob_WRLD_
2
EUR GBP - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS2023-2024 Exchange Rate Forecasts From MUFG Pound Sterling: BoE Forecasting Errors Increase GBP Risk Profile MUFG has significant reservations surrounding the Pound outlook. As far as inflation is concerned, it sees significant risks over the medium-term implications. It notes; “The sense that the UK has a bigger inflation problem is creating downside risks for the pound that may see a period of underperformance if the evidence continues to suggest this.” MUFG also notes problems with the bank’s model failure to forecast higher inflation. According to the bank; “BoE Governor Bailey stated that it was no longer following the information from the model which will only exacerbate risks of policy errors and the potential for a bigger inflation problem in the UK.” Overall, MUFG expects a mixed outlook for the Pound, especially as it expects UK yields will decline amid weak credit demand and evidence of weaker employment. It expects the downgrading of BoE rate expectations will hurt the Pound against the Euro with EUR/GBP forecast at 0.90 in 12 months.
Long
by thunderpips
6
EURGBP Excellent buy opportunityEURGBP is rebounding after hitting Support (1) which was last touched on December 13th 2022. This is a short-term buy opportunity but the long term trend remains bearish, not only due to the Falling Resistance since February but also 3rd but also due to the formation of a Death Cross (1d), the first since Jnuary 21 2021. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 0.87150 (Resistance 1) and estimated contact with the MA50 (1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is trading under a Falling Resistance, same as February through March. I made a reversal after touching the oversold level of 30.00. This is a strong additionl reason to buy on the short term. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
Long
by TradingBrokersView
9
EG potential turning point, watching only **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Long
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
1
Potential swing trade short on EUR/GBP EUR/GBP has just suffered its worst month in ten, thanks to renewed bets of a more-hawkish BOE and soft inflation reports across Europe. Volumes increased during the recent leg lower to show fresh bearish bets being placed and the OBV (on balance volume) has also confirmed the move lower on prices. Prices are consolidating near the cycle lows on the 1-hour chart within a potential bear-flag pattern, and the flag projects an approximate target near the December low / daily S2 pivot point. A weak inflation report for the Eurozone later today could help send prices directly low. However, should prices instead recycle higher first (which seems plausible given the magnitude of the bearish move) then bears could look to fade into the daily pivot point ~0.8610 or the volume cluster around 0.825. Given the strength of the downtrend, we’d view a retracement higher as an opportunity to increase the potential reward to risk ratio.
Short
by CityIndex
12
EURGBP Forming the first 1D Death Cross since January 2021!The EURGBP pair is completing today the first Death Cross on the 1D time-frame since January 21 2021. That is a strong long-term bearish signal on its own. On the short-term though, the price just hit the bottom of its 5 month Channel Down, while the 1D RSI, which is also on a Channel Down, hit its own bottom while turning oversold (below 30.00) for the first time since March 10 2021. As a result, we've opened a buy on EURGBP, expecting a +1.69% rise, targeting the top of the Channel Down at 0.87150. If however the price closes below Support 1 (0.85475), then the selling pressure due to the 1D Death Cross will most likely pile up and we will turn bearish instead, targeting Support 2 (0.84100). The R/R ratio on this action plan is very favorable. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
5
EURGBP: Could we see a new breakout? Today's focus: EURGBP Pattern – Range/Descending Triangle Possible targets – .8600 Support – .8670 Resistance – .8705 Today’s update, will we see the EURGBP make a new push lower, confirming its descending triangle pattern? Price broke the main trend setting up its first leg lower. From that point, we have seen a consolidation set-up with a bearish pattern in the mix. Descending triangle patterns are seen as bearish patterns if they are set up in a new decline. So far, we have the new decline, but we need to see if sellers can confirm the pattern with a breakout through .8670 support. If today’s rally fails to fade and if we see a new rally through range resistance, this will be a worry and could be telling that the pattern could fail. Let’s see over today and tomorrow if sellers can regain control and maybe set up a confirmation. Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
Short
by Eightcap