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Eur-gbp

InvestMate|EUR/GBP Didn't I say so?💶💷💶💷EUR/GBP Didn't I say so? 💶💷As I wrote in my last post about the coming dips, as usual I was not wrong, this time it was time for an update. Link to the post below: 💶💷We will start with the fact that we broke through an important support zone and reached the 0.618 level from where I expect a retest of last resistance, the current support. 💶💷The new strong support zone I determined based on the measurement of the external fibo: 1.272 and levels where price has found resistance in the past. 💶💷 I expect a continuation of the downtrend which can only gain strength in the coming months. 💶💷💷The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of the southward direction, not excluding a test of the current resistance zone. 💶💷For fundamental data justifying the declines, I refer again to the previous post. 💶💷*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
10
InvestMate|EUR/GBP Continued declines💶💷💶💷EUR/GBP Continued declines. 💶💷This time it's time for the EUR/GBP pair. 💶💷Over a while has passed since my last post on this one. Enough time for the sellers to attack again. 💶💷That's just like my bearish attitude. 💶💷I will briefly outline the fundamental situation of both currencies. 💶Beginning with the Euro: 💶Looking at economic growth in the Eurozone we are at levels of 2.1% This is quite average looking at the past. 💶 Unemployment in the Eurozone is falling the latest readings on 3 November showed us falling to levels of 6.6% compared to last year's reading of 6.7%. 💶 Ahead of us next week, on 17 November to be exact, are the readings on inflation, which stood at 10.7% on 31 October. The market is betting on inflation slowing down. In the coming months. Which may reduce the push for the next interest rate hike. 💶 Eurozone interest rates were raised by 75 basis points at the last counci meeting on 27 October to levels of 2%. 💷Now what is the situation in the UK: 💷 UK economic growth also slows is currently 2.4%. 💷We will find out about unemployment tomorrow 15 November. We are currently at 3.5%. The market is not entirely convinced whether we will maintain this level or increase. tradingeconomics.com 💷Inflation continues to rise we have 10.1% so far but the market expects a further rise, which may prompt the monetary policy council to remain mostly hawkish. 💷 Rates were raised to 3% on 3 November and so far there is no sign of us slowing down in the near future. 💷I would also like to add that a few weeks ago the Central Bank of England announced unlimited asset purchases which may influence the strengthening of the pound. 💶💷We see that the situation supports the upside scenario on the pound. 💶💷Transforming to the chart I will outline all the tools used in turn: 💶💷1 I have plotted a downward channel from peak to low. As we can see the price was in this channel for a long period of time and then the breakout occurred. 💶💷2. I determined the upward channel of the current upward correction. From which we broke out to the bottom and have now returned to the edge again. 💶💷2 I then measured the wave from peak to bottom using the fibo. 💶💷3. I determined the fibo wave from bottom to top to find future support zones. 💶💷4. I measured using the fibo grid the last downward wave of the current upward impulse. 💶💷4. I measured the largest downward wave in the downtrend and set a correction level of 1:1 💶💷5 I determined 3 support lines. (1). Around the 0.618 level of the wave of the current uptrend. (2). The zone at the last low plus is the 0.618 level of the largest downward wave. (3). The cluster of the 1.618 level of the current upward impulse plus the 1:1 level of the largest downward wave. 💶💷6. I have determined 2 resistance zones. (1). Based on the 0.236 level of the current uptrend, we can see that this has also been a vulnerable area in the past. (2). Based on the 0.382 level of the entire downward wave, also the price has respected this price level in the past. Currently, this resistance represents the top of the current impulse. 💶💷The scenario I am playing out is a gradual continuation of the weakening of the euro against the pound with minor corrections along the way. We are currently at an intervening price point. 💶💷*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario for further increases. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
13
EUR GBP - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE At their previous meeting the ECB hiked by another 75bsp, and with HICP >9% it should keep the bank hiking for now. ECB sources notes the bank is planning to discuss QT at their Dec meeting. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or clarity on how the eligibility might impact countries like Italy and Spain. Until the BTP/Bund spread breaches 2.55%, markets will have to wait and see whether TPI can make a difference. The main driver for the EUR is the economic outlook, but there are a few different conflicting drivers. Gas supply from Russia remain closed (EUR negative), but energy reform plans have seen EU gas prices lose ground (EUR positive). The war in Ukraine remains a risk (EUR negative), but recent victories by Ukraine and the recapture of the strategic city of Kherson has been a more positive development (EUR positive). In the week ahead, flash PMIs for France & Germany will be the only major calendar highlight POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine. Stagflation risks remains, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected data could spark some relief. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, better overall risk sentiment that pressures the USD should be supportive for the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Escalation in Ukraine war that risks NATO involvement. Stagflation risks remains, even with lots of bad news priced any materially worse-than-expected data could see more pressure. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, continued sour risk sentiment that supports the USD should be negative for the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent data pointing to a higher likelihood of a EZ recession. Current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply) outweigh the positives. Recession risks remain high and means incoming data like growth & inflation will be watched closely. For now, the focus for the EUR is on multiple fronts from energy to policy to geopolitics, which means we don’t want to be hasty with looking for new EUR trades and want a very clear reason and catalyst to trade the currency in the short-term. GBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. At their NOV policy decision, the BoE’s updated projections showed a deeper and longer recession than previously thought, as well as a stern push back against current market pricing for the high implied rate path. However, rate markets did not respond to this with only marginal downside in terminal rate expectations. With the new budget now out of the way, the markets should turn their attention to what this means for the economic outlook, and means economic data & BoE policy should start to matter a bit more again. This week the highlight will be S&P Flash PMIs, but a slew of BoE speak will be interesting after the budget. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. Any overly positive takes from BoE speak regarding the budget could be taken as a positive for Sterling. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. Any overly negative takes from BoE speak regarding the budget could be taken as a positive for Sterling. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish with the UK already in a recession based on recent data. At least the new PM has provided some calm to the fiscal situation and political uncertainty though. Expectations are for a lot of pain ahead for the UK economy which means the fundamental outlook remains bearish.
by thunderpips
1
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Head and shoulders on 60min EURGBPTrade Idea: Selling EURGBP Reasoning: Head and shoulders on 60min EURGBP Entry Level: 0.8704 Take Profit Level: 0.8652 Stop Loss: 0.8726 Risk/Reward: 2.36:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
2
UK 11% inflation and supply chain shock is starting to fadeUK inflation goes to 11% a 41-year high, goods prices continue to increase. BOE says supply chain shock is starting to fade, however, with this inflation rate, the next couple hours the EURGBP will certainly go long. Chart: We have a support that was not tested after the dates of UK. But we can see the RSI in a oversold zone and after changing the direction the MACD is going up. The MA of BB has already been tested with some candles shadows, but none of them crossed it.
Long
by AFCapital21
2
EURGBP a turn at the 0.5 Fibonacci 🦐EURGBP on the 4h chart after the last impulse retraced at the 0.5 Fibonacci level and retest the 4h support. The price is now trading below a daily resistance and according to Pkancton's strategy IF the price will break above we will set a nice long order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
by InkyGrip
2
EUR / GBP bullish short term outlookEUR / GBP: Bullish outlook despite the pullback on November 10th and the fact that price found support above the 40 week (200 day) moving average which also intersects at 0.8686 (the 50% retracement from 4 week high / low) indicates the pair may have strong buyer support, this can be further supported by the fact that current price remains above its 4 week moving average, as well as the fact that both 4 and 13 week rate of change indicators are above their respective signal lines ( above zero), this technical conclusion supports the prospects for a bullish outlook over the short term (5-25 days) with upside potential targets near 0.8870 (Oct 12 high) and 0.8930 (38.2% retracement from the 13 week high low).
Long
by Skilling
EURGBP short IF cross MABoth zones UK and Euro had rise their interest rates in 75bp. Days ago Lagard said ECB will continue raising rates to fight the inflation, and BOE are warning about a long recession, and the interest rates hikes in 30Y In this chart we can watch the price touching the resistance and a overbought at BB and RSI, changing the direction such as MACD that had already crossed the signal line. We can wait for the confirmation of short position after the candles cross the MA, and open our position against Eur if it's a strong short candle
Short
by AFCapital21
Tug of War Among Central BanksThere is a tug of war situation among the central banks to hike interest rates. What is the bad and the good that will come out from this? i. Last week of October, European Central Bank officials announced another massive 75 basis point hike, increasing interest rates at the fastest pace in the history of the euro currency. ii. This week, the Federal Reserve is expected to increase rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row. iii. The Bank of England could join the club on Thursday. Content: . The Interest Rate race has just started, why? . The impact on different currencies . It may not be all bad news, why? With higher interest rates, it attracts investors to buy its currency, in this case the USD. Currency is always a pair, when USD strengthens, the other side weakens. When a currency gets weaker, it is very bad news for inflation because they will have to pay more on their imports. Therefore in order to counter inflation, one of the best measures is to hike rate Expect more volatility in the currencies market, meaning currencies will take its turn to move. And if you are a trader, you should welcome volatility. Because with volatility, there are opportunities. GBP Futures 0.0001 = $6.25 0.001 = $62.50 0.01 = $625 0.1 = $6,250 1.1000 to 1.2000 = $6,250 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:6B1!Education
by konhow
76
EURGBP Bullish Megaphone approaching its bottom. Long-term buy.The EURGBP pair has been trading within a Bullish Megaphone pattern since the March 07 Low, made around the strong aggression in the Ukraine - Russia war. Within this pattern, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been acting as a pivot in its middle since the beginning, while the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) has been more of a Support near the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone. The pair completed three straight 1D closings below the 1D MA50 on Friday and is headed towards the 1D MA200 to form a bottom, within a familiar Channel Down (blue pattern) that formed the last two Higher Lows. With the 1D RSI entering the Support Zone of this Megaphone, the pair is gradually turning into a strong long-term buy again. Since the previous Higher Highs were made after breaking the 1.5 and 2.5 Fibonacci extension levels respectively, we can assume that the next one will be on the same progression, i.e. the Fib 3.5, which is currently at 0.92835. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
5