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Eur-gbp

Tug of War Among Central BanksThere is a tug of war situation among the central banks to hike interest rates. What is the bad and the good that will come out from this? i. Last week of October, European Central Bank officials announced another massive 75 basis point hike, increasing interest rates at the fastest pace in the history of the euro currency. ii. This week, the Federal Reserve is expected to increase rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row. iii. The Bank of England could join the club on Thursday. Content: . The Interest Rate race has just started, why? . The impact on different currencies . It may not be all bad news, why? With higher interest rates, it attracts investors to buy its currency, in this case the USD. Currency is always a pair, when USD strengthens, the other side weakens. When a currency gets weaker, it is very bad news for inflation because they will have to pay more on their imports. Therefore in order to counter inflation, one of the best measures is to hike rate Expect more volatility in the currencies market, meaning currencies will take its turn to move. And if you are a trader, you should welcome volatility. Because with volatility, there are opportunities. GBP Futures 0.0001 = $6.25 0.001 = $62.50 0.01 = $625 0.1 = $6,250 1.1000 to 1.2000 = $6,250 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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by konhow
76
EURGBP Bullish Megaphone approaching its bottom. Long-term buy.The EURGBP pair has been trading within a Bullish Megaphone pattern since the March 07 Low, made around the strong aggression in the Ukraine - Russia war. Within this pattern, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been acting as a pivot in its middle since the beginning, while the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) has been more of a Support near the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone. The pair completed three straight 1D closings below the 1D MA50 on Friday and is headed towards the 1D MA200 to form a bottom, within a familiar Channel Down (blue pattern) that formed the last two Higher Lows. With the 1D RSI entering the Support Zone of this Megaphone, the pair is gradually turning into a strong long-term buy again. Since the previous Higher Highs were made after breaking the 1.5 and 2.5 Fibonacci extension levels respectively, we can assume that the next one will be on the same progression, i.e. the Fib 3.5, which is currently at 0.92835. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
5
EURGBP making HIGHER LOWSEURGBP is making HL, and with a support tested at October 17th, now with 3 HL we've the perspective about a short position, if more than one full boy candle cross the support. Because we've a descending triangle, but we need stronger candles to prove the short position, in fact of the support was tested during Tokyo and Sydney sessions, however the trend made another HL when testing the resistance MACD is also crossing again and will go down again, and with EMA we can see the line crossing the middle BB.
Short
by AFCapital21
EUR GBP - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE Inflation >9% saw a 75bsp ECB hike in September. Post-meeting sources noted the bank is planning to discuss QT at their October meeting. The President showed more communication tact by not giving any clues on estimates for the terminal rate. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or clarity on how the eligibility might impact countries like Italy and Spain. Until the BTP/Bund spread breaches 2.55%, markets will have to wait and see whether TPI can make a difference. The main driver for the EUR is the economic outlook, but there are a few different conflicting drivers. Gas supply from Russia remain closed, but energy reform plans have seen EU gas prices lose ground. The war in Ukraine remains a risk, but recent victories by Ukraine has been a more positive development. Flash PMI data will be important to watch, but Thursday’s ECB meeting might get the most attention. STIR markets have priced 76bsp for the meeting, which means a 75bsp won’t be enough to get markets excited and focus will fall to the ECB’s tone. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine. Stagflation risks remains, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected data could spark some relief. Any TPI comments that convinces markets it can solve spread fragmentation issues should be supportive for the EUR. Resumption of Nord Stream gas flows or if gas storage can see Europe through winter, would ease some of the pressure. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, better overall risk sentiment that pressures the USD should be supportive for the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Escalation in Ukraine war that risks NATO involvement. Stagflation risks remains, even with lots of bad news priced any materially worse-than-expected data could see more pressure. If ECB fails to act on the TPI when we see big jolts higher in the BTP/Bund spread could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Announcements that Europe gas storage won’t make it through the winter without resumption of gas flows. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, continued sour risk sentiment that supports the USD should be negative for the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent data pointing to a higher likelihood of a EZ recession. Current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply) outweigh the positives. Recession risks remain high and means incoming data like growth & inflation will be watched closely. For now, the focus for the EUR is on multiple fronts from energy to policy to geopolitics, which means we don’t want to be hasty with looking for new EUR trades and want a very clear reason and catalyst to trade the currency in the short-term. With markets fully priced for another 75bsp hike, the attention will fall on the tone and language of the statement and press conference. GBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns. The disorderly move in Gilt yields were enough to force the BoE’s to step in with a limited (both in time and size) bond buying intervention plan. This has brought some calm to the angst but being limited won’t be enough to fix the fiscal concerns. It was another volatile week for Sterling as a result of the political uncertainty with the resignation of PM Truss. In the week ahead we only have S&P Global PMIs to watch on the data side, but all focus and attention will be on the leadership race to see which 2 or 3 candidates will meet the minimum 100 nominations to put their names in the hat. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. If massive disorderly moves in Gilts forces the BoE to step up as the buyer of last resorts that could trigger GBP upside. If either Johnson or Sunak gets enough nominations that could ease some of the pressure from the Pound. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. If we have big disorderly moves in Gilts but the BoE reiterates, they won’t intervene again that could put pressure on GBP. Any outcome that increases the likelihood of a general election should increase the risk premium in the GBP. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish . Recession is around the corner (might be in one already), and the new fiscal plan has failed to provide any assurances for investors (even though we think the negative reaction is not completely warranted). Even though flash PMI data will be important to watch as always, the political situation will likely overshadow the econ data as all eyes will be on the leadership race to see who will win the race as the UK’s next PM.
by thunderpips
5
EURGBP a long opportunity 🦐EURGBP on the 4h chart after the recent high dropped back to the 0.8600 level. The price on the macro picture remains bullish and IF the market will break and close above the minor 4h resistance i will be looking for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
4
EURGBP looking to short if... **Find out more from my Tradingview Stream this week** *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
EURGBP SELL IS THE MOVE yo whats up guys , welcome to another new analysis today we have EURGBP i believe its about to go down and here is why : first of all we have - Last monthly candle closed as a big hammer with a huge wick which signals the Sellers are dominating - and on the 1D T.F we can see a head and shoulder pattern being formed on a KEY level as neckline and under a falling trendline which had few breakouts - the Neckline was not only broken but was also retested we might be having a bearish move comming soon this is not financial advice this is just a point of view personally i will wait for a little bit more confirmation and enter on a sell asap
Short
by xAB777
EUR/GBP -14/10/2022-• Bullish trend intact despite recent fall • 0.8600 very critical in this scenario • The above level served as resistance from Sep 21 till the breakout in Sep 22 • After 5 failed tests of 0.8600, the 6th one was in Sep 22 when the breakout occured and prices rallied to 0.90 and above • As you know, resistance levels become support as they are broken and that is the case now • Besides the horizontal mentioned level, there is an ascending trend line dating back to Aug 22 which is also offering support at around the same level of 0.8600 • When different indicators converge at one level, the latter become a critical one • Buy orders recommended as long as above 0.8600 with stop loss just below that level • Sell orders on a confirmed break below the support 0.8600 figure
Long
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
EURGBP can move higher? 🦐EURGBP on the 4h chart after the recent high dropped back to the 0.86500 level. The price on the macro picture remains bullish and IF the market will break and close above the minor 4h resistance i will be looking for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
by InkyGrip
Waiting for a short to happen in EURGBP *************************************************************************************** Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
⭕️BUY GBPEUR; It's time to buy🤨🚀🔰You can see the analysis of the British pound to the euro in the 30-minute time frame (GBPEUR_ 30min)💣🔍 💥SUPPLY and DEMAND zones are indicated in the picture🧐 Due to the presence of the GAP in the chart and the presence of the price near the Support🧡, there is a possibility that the price will rise as a result of hitting the support line up to the Supply zone🚀🔺 Do you think this analysis can be profitable❓ I hope the analysis was useful for you🤍🌹 📌Please introduce the channel to your friends 🙏🏻 __________📈TRADER STREET📉___________
Long
by TRADER_STREET
1