EUR GBP - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH
BASELINE
Inflation >9% saw a 75bsp ECB hike in September. Post-meeting sources noted the bank is planning to discuss QT at their October meeting. The President showed more communication tact by not giving any clues on estimates for the terminal rate. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or clarity on how the eligibility might impact countries like Italy and Spain. Until the BTP/Bund spread breaches 2.55%, markets will have to wait and see whether TPI can make a difference. The main driver for the EUR is the economic outlook, but there are a few different conflicting drivers. Gas supply from Russia remain closed, but energy reform plans have seen EU gas prices lose ground. The war in Ukraine remains a risk, but recent victories by Ukraine has been a more positive development. Flash PMI data will be important to watch, but Thursday’s ECB meeting might get the most attention. STIR markets have priced 76bsp for the meeting, which means a 75bsp won’t be enough to get markets excited and focus will fall to the ECB’s tone.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine. Stagflation risks remains, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected data could spark some relief. Any TPI comments that convinces markets it can solve spread fragmentation issues should be supportive for the EUR. Resumption of Nord Stream gas flows or if gas storage can see Europe through winter, would ease some of the pressure. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, better overall risk sentiment that pressures the USD should be supportive for the EUR.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Escalation in Ukraine war that risks NATO involvement. Stagflation risks remains, even with lots of bad news priced any materially worse-than-expected data could see more pressure. If ECB fails to act on the TPI when we see big jolts higher in the BTP/Bund spread could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Announcements that Europe gas storage won’t make it through the winter without resumption of gas flows. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, continued sour risk sentiment that supports the USD should be negative for the EUR.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent data pointing to a higher likelihood of a EZ recession. Current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply) outweigh the positives. Recession risks remain high and means incoming data like growth & inflation will be watched closely. For now, the focus for the EUR is on multiple fronts from energy to policy to geopolitics, which means we don’t want to be hasty with looking for new EUR trades and want a very clear reason and catalyst to trade the currency in the short-term. With markets fully priced for another 75bsp hike, the attention will fall on the tone and language of the statement and press conference.
GBP
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH
BASELINE
A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns. The disorderly move in Gilt yields were enough to force the BoE’s to step in with a limited (both in time and size) bond buying intervention plan. This has brought some calm to the angst but being limited won’t be enough to fix the fiscal concerns. It was another volatile week for Sterling as a result of the political uncertainty with the resignation of PM Truss. In the week ahead we only have S&P Global PMIs to watch on the data side, but all focus and attention will be on the leadership race to see which 2 or 3 candidates will meet the minimum 100 nominations to put their names in the hat.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. If massive disorderly moves in Gilts forces the BoE to step up as the buyer of last resorts that could trigger GBP upside. If either Johnson or Sunak gets enough nominations that could ease some of the pressure from the Pound.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. If we have big disorderly moves in Gilts but the BoE reiterates, they won’t intervene again that could put pressure on GBP. Any outcome that increases the likelihood of a general election should increase the risk premium in the GBP.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish . Recession is around the corner (might be in one already), and the new fiscal plan has failed to provide any assurances for investors (even though we think the negative reaction is not completely warranted). Even though flash PMI data will be important to watch as always, the political situation will likely overshadow the econ data as all eyes will be on the leadership race to see who will win the race as the UK’s next PM.
Eur-gbp
EURGBP a long opportunity 🦐EURGBP on the 4h chart after the recent high dropped back to the 0.8600 level.
The price on the macro picture remains bullish and IF the market will break and close above the minor 4h resistance i will be looking for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
EURGBP looking to short if...
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
EURGBP SELL IS THE MOVE yo whats up guys , welcome to another new analysis today we have EURGBP i believe its about to go down and here is why :
first of all we have
- Last monthly candle closed as a big hammer with a huge wick which signals the Sellers are dominating
- and on the 1D T.F we can see a head and shoulder pattern being formed on a KEY level as neckline and under a falling trendline which had few breakouts
- the Neckline was not only broken but was also retested we might be having a bearish move comming soon
this is not financial advice this is just a point of view
personally i will wait for a little bit more confirmation and enter on a sell asap
EUR/GBP -14/10/2022-• Bullish trend intact despite recent fall
• 0.8600 very critical in this scenario
• The above level served as resistance from Sep 21 till the breakout in Sep 22
• After 5 failed tests of 0.8600, the 6th one was in Sep 22 when the breakout occured and prices rallied to 0.90 and above
• As you know, resistance levels become support as they are broken and that is the case now
• Besides the horizontal mentioned level, there is an ascending trend line dating back to Aug 22 which is also offering support at around the same level of 0.8600
• When different indicators converge at one level, the latter become a critical one
• Buy orders recommended as long as above 0.8600 with stop loss just below that level
• Sell orders on a confirmed break below the support 0.8600 figure
EURGBP can move higher? 🦐EURGBP on the 4h chart after the recent high dropped back to the 0.86500 level.
The price on the macro picture remains bullish and IF the market will break and close above the minor 4h resistance i will be looking for a nice long order according to the Plancton's strategy rules.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Waiting for a short to happen in EURGBP
***************************************************************************************
Hello there!
If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁
Thank you!
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
⭕️BUY GBPEUR; It's time to buy🤨🚀🔰You can see the analysis of the British pound to the euro in the 30-minute time frame (GBPEUR_ 30min)💣🔍
💥SUPPLY and DEMAND zones are indicated in the picture🧐 Due to the presence of the GAP in the chart and the presence of the price near the Support🧡, there is a possibility that the price will rise as a result of hitting the support line up to the Supply zone🚀🔺
Do you think this analysis can be profitable❓
I hope the analysis was useful for you🤍🌹
📌Please introduce the channel to your friends 🙏🏻
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EURGBP: Important Structure Breakout 🇪🇺🇬🇧
EURGBP broke and closed above a key horizontal weekly supply area.
The broken structure turned into support now.
I believe that the pair will keep growing.
Next resistance: 0.886 - 0.8915 area.
Wait for an occasional retest of a broken structure to buy.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
EUR GBP SHORT IDEA 18.09Dear trader,
I leave you a little description of my technical analysis about eur/gbp for the next swing period cause I think the zone where we now are is a good bearish opportunity. Why?
In weekly timeframe we in a Range, the price is about at the medium level of the range, in Daily tf we can see the bearish resistance upside and the momentum we had in the last week was powerful bullish, that means interest. Interest from the bigs to catch the price or to take the best price movement.
Intuitive trading: I ask my self where I would more like inclined to sell.
I look at the past, I saw on 4 Feb 2021 a Bearish engulfing breaking 0.87850, where we now are.
Again, the bearish momentum caused by institutional on that date, possibly are ready for the next bearish move, cause the large amount of liquidity with which they broke the level 0.87850.
Let now see this week how it ll go after major news we have about eur and gbp and waiting for structure confirmation in lower time frames (H1/30m/15m).
Worst case scenario: Bullish tp 0.89200, aka the next liquidity point $
And if you ask yourself why you can't see well the candles in my analysis, is because to read the market you need to know where the liquidity is.
Have a great week.
Ian
EUR/GBPMaybe a potential short trade for the EUR/GBP?
- BoE is bound to come with a 75 Basis point increase on the interest rate Thursday .
- England are experiencing way tougher inflation than the European regions.
- RSI are already/close to signal a overbought signal, therefore a back-trace to more normal levels would be ideal
- ADX also showing a strong upward trend, been doing so for days, but should change direction, if my guts are correct.
lets see what happens in the coming week.
EURGBP Next Possible MovementTechnical Analysis Chart Update
EUR / GBP ( Euro / British Pound )
Time Frame - M30
BULLISH CHANNEL in Long Time Frame #LTF
Break Of Structure #BOS
BEARISH CHANNEL in Short Time Frame #STF and rejection from the Upper Trend Line #UTL and Fibonacci Level - 78.60%
Selling Divergence
EURGBP Double Resistance rejection. 1D MA50 pull-back in focus.The EURGBP pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern on the 1D time-frame since the March 07 market low, which only broke for one day. That came on June 14 when the price was forcefully rejected on both the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) and the 0.87200 Resistance that has been holding since February 26, 2021.
This is where the pair is currently at, touching both the 1W MA200 and the Resistance Zone two days ago, with the price rejected sideways. The current consolidation on such high levels seems to be the sell accumulation phase before a leg downwards. With are selling this set-up, targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). We will turn bullish either on the 1D MA50 or at the bottom of the Channel (Higher Lows trend-line). In both cases the target will be 0.8700. In order to extend buying towards the top of the Channel, we would like to see a candle close above the Resistance Zone.
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