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Eur-gbp

Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?EUR/GBP is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the pullback resistance. Pivot: 0.83719 1st Support: 0.83258 1st Resistance: 0.84121 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
1
EURGBP - Euro is recovering!?The EURGBP pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. The pair’s continued rise towards the supply zone will provide a selling position with a good risk-reward ratio. In case of a downside correction, we can buy in the demand zone. The Eurozone composite PMI rose from 49.6 to 50.2. Although this figure exceeds expectations, it still reflects a stagnant economy with the manufacturing sector in recession. While price pressures are once again on the rise, it appears that weak growth remains the primary concern, as the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares for further interest rate cuts. In the manufacturing sector, the production index increased from 44.3 to 46.8, which still indicates contraction but at a slower pace. Meanwhile, the services sector, which remains the main driver of growth, saw a slight dip in business activity PMI from 51.6 to 51.4. Overall, the Eurozone economy appears to be hovering near stagnation. Economic growth continues to face challenges due to weak international demand. Export orders are still declining, and with U.S. tariffs on Eurozone manufacturing rising again, the outlook remains bleak. Interestingly, however, optimism among manufacturers improved in January, suggesting businesses are counting on growth recovery throughout the year. We believe this expectation is reasonable but mainly driven by stronger domestic demand. The ECB has been gradually lowering interest rates since June 2024, and this trend is expected to continue into 2025. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated this gradual approach during the Davos summit this week. However, some investors are hoping for a 0.5% rate cut in January’s meeting. This scenario, though, seems unlikely, as inflation in the services sector remains around 4%, and wage growth has reached its highest level in three decades. At the same time, concerns about the Eurozone’s economic growth have increased due to political unrest in France and Germany, declining exports linked to China’s weak economy, and the potential for new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. Nevertheless, the situation is not severe enough to prompt the ECB to accelerate rate cuts. The ECB is expected to lower rates by 0.25% in Thursday’s meeting, with Lagarde likely sticking to her recent policy stance. Investors will be watching closely for new clues about any disagreements within the ECB’s Governing Council and policymakers’ views on the neutral rate. If Lagarde does not rule out the possibility of more aggressive rate cuts in the future, the euro could face downward pressure. A larger potential risk lies in new developments on the tariff front, especially if Trump makes statements about imposing trade restrictions on the EU. Additionally, Thursday’s initial GDP estimate for Q4 2024 in the Eurozone could trigger market reactions. These figures could significantly influence market expectations and the euro’s trajectory.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Could the price drop from here?EUR/GBP is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support. Pivot: 0.8434 1st Support: 0.8391 1st Resistance: 0.8473 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
EURGBP to continue in the bullish channel?EURGBP - 24h expiry Intraday dips continue to attract buyers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end. 20 4hour EMA is at 0.8429. We look to buy dips. Dip buying offers good risk/reward. A break of the recent high at 0.8463 should result in a further move higher. We look to Buy at 0.8431 (stop at 0.8409) Our profit targets will be 0.8489 and 0.8499 Resistance: 0.8454 / 0.8464 / 0.8485 Support: 0.8436 / 0.8420 / 0.8404 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
EURBGP: Sell signal on the Channel Down top.EURGBP is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 68.286, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 49.271) as it crossed over the 1D MA200 and almost touched the top of the short term Channel Down. This is a solid first entry for a short, the second being under the 1W MA200 near the dashed trendline of the long term Channel Down. Target the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (TP = 0.82800). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
Potential bullish rise?EUR/GBP has reacted off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 0.8361 1st Support: 0.8263 1st Resistance: 0.8490 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
1
EURGBP - Will the pound continue to fall?The EURGBP currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. The continued rise of this currency pair towards the supply zone will provide a position to sell it with a suitable risk reward. In case of downward correction, we can buy within the demand zone. Yesterday, Reeves, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, faced questions from Members of Parliament following a significant increase in the sale of UK government bonds. Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Speaker of the House of Commons, accepted an urgent query raised by Conservative opposition members. This compelled Reeves to appear in Parliament on Thursday morning, as the yield on 10-year UK government bonds surged to 4.93%, the highest level since 2008. The pound also dropped during this market turmoil, reaching $1.224, its weakest level since November 2023. The rising yields on UK government debt have posed a serious challenge to Reeves’ fiscal plans, constraining the government’s borrowing capacity under its budgetary rules. Borrowing costs have spiked as investors grow increasingly concerned about the government’s heavy borrowing needs and the mounting risk of stagflation. Jones, a senior official at the UK Treasury, stated that only the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) could predict the impact of bond market movements on the fiscal outlook. He emphasized that the government remains committed to strict fiscal rules, ensuring public spending stays within budget limits. He also noted that public services must operate within their allocated resources, dismissing the need for any emergency intervention by the Treasury. Meanwhile, Breeden, a member of the Bank of England, commented that recent data suggest it may be time to ease restrictive policies.She expressed the need to understand the causes behind the slowdown in economic activity and how employers are coping with higher hiring costs. While economic activity appears somewhat subdued, Breeden added that it is expected to rebound. According to a Citi/YouGov survey, UK households’ one-year inflation expectations have risen to 3.7%, while their long-term inflation expectations have climbed to 3.9%. Concurrently, the UK Debt Management Office plans to syndicate and reissue the 4.375% 2040 bonds in the week starting January 20. This move aims to finance the government and manage public debt. Separately, Cipollone of the European Central Bank remarked that monetary policy should enable the Eurozone economy to operate at full capacity while avoiding demand reductions that could trigger inflationary shocks. He highlighted structural issues in Europe’s industrial sector, including declining productivity relative to the US and excessive reliance on foreign technological solutions. Cipollone further noted that Europe has lost its edge in innovation and scalability due to fragmented markets and a defensive, nationalist approach.
Long
by Ali_PSND
EURGBP intraday rallies to continue attract sellers?EURGBP - 24h expiry The primary trend remains bearish. Intraday rallies continue to attract sellers and there is no clear indication that this sequence for trading is coming to an end. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. The bearish engulfing candle on the 4 hour chart is negative for sentiment. 50 1day EMA is at 0.8310. We look to Sell at 0.8309 (stop at 0.8329) Our profit targets will be 0.8259 and 0.8249 Resistance: 0.8300 / 0.8315 / 0.8328 Support: 0.8285 / 0.8263 / 0.8250 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
EURGBP - Europe will pass this winter safely!?The EURGBP currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. If the resistance range is broken, we can witness the upward movement of this currency pair. A valid break of the drawn upward trend line will provide us with the downward path of this currency pair to the level of 0.82400. Bloomberg has reported that the cessation of Russian natural gas flow to Europe via Ukraine is likely to heighten competition with Asia and drive up the cost of alternatives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on Wednesday that Ukraine hopes increased gas supplies from the U.S. and other producers to Europe will make prices more acceptable. The flow of gas from Russia to Europe through Ukraine stopped on Wednesday, marking the end of over five decades of this route being the primary channel for gas to the Eurozone. While this move was anticipated after months of political tension, Europe still needs to replace about 5% of its gas supply and may increasingly rely on storage levels that have now dropped below average. The European Commission noted that the suspension of gas flow via Ukraine on January 1st was a foreseen scenario, and the EU is prepared for it. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), expressed optimism that the ECB could achieve a 2% inflation rate by 2025. She stated, “We have made significant progress in reducing inflation in 2024 and hope that 2025 will be the year we reach our target as expected and planned in our strategy. However, we will continue our efforts to ensure inflation stabilizes at the 2% medium-term target.” Meanwhile, UBS has noted that the value of the U.S. dollar has increased, suggesting that investors can sell dollars more robustly and convert them to currencies such as the British pound or the Australian dollar. Despite the recent rise in the dollar’s value, driven by shifts in expectations around Federal Reserve policies and U.S. government actions, the bank believes the dollar remains overvalued. While UBS does not anticipate a sharp decline in the dollar’s value in the short term, it sees opportunities for investors to pivot toward more attractive currencies. The British pound (GBP) and Australian dollar (AUD) are among its top picks due to their potential to perform well amidst evolving global monetary conditions. Additionally, according to data from Nationwide, house prices in the UK reached near-record levels at the end of last year. This indicates that the real estate market continues to gain momentum. Nationwide reported that house prices rose by 0.7% on a monthly basis, reaching an average of £269,426 (equivalent to $337,500). This figure is only slightly below the record high of £273,751 recorded in the summer of 2022.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Bearish drop?EUR/GBP is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 0.82747 1st Support: 0.82239 1st Resistance: 0.83031 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
1
Bullish bounce?EUR/GBP is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 0.8268 1st Support: 0.8224 1st Resistance: 0.8325 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?EUR/GBP is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 0.8269 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 0.8223 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 0.8329 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
EURGBP - The weakness of the euro will end!?The EURGBP currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. In case of breaking the resistance area, we can see the supply zone and resell in that zone with appropriate risk reward. A valid break of the drawn support area will provide us with the downward path of this currency pair to the level of 0.82400. Following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, the euro experienced a sharp decline. This drop was attributed to market reactions to the possibility of aggressive policies in areas such as trade, immigration, and finance.Past experiences have shown that such policies can significantly impact exchange rates. It is anticipated that the U.S. tariff measures expected in early 2025 will play a crucial role in shaping the direction of exchange rates. The euro, particularly due to Europe’s significant trade surplus with the U.S., is highly vulnerable to these measures. According to statistics, the U.S. trade deficit with the eurozone increased from $158 billion in 2019 to $196 billion by September 2024. This development could serve as motivation for U.S. policymakers to apply further pressure. Another factor that might weaken the euro is the poor performance of eurozone countries in meeting NATO’s defense spending targets. Out of the eight countries that remain below the 2% defense spending threshold, seven are in the eurozone. This could provide Trump’s administration with justification for adopting stricter trade measures. JP Morgan has forecasted that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points during its December 12 meeting. While the market assigns only a 20% probability to this reduction, JP Morgan believes that such a cut would not suffice to bolster the economy. Data indicates that the preliminary estimate for overall consumer inflation dropped from 2.8% to 2.7%, while core inflation rose from 2% to 2.3%. Villeroy, a member of the ECB, dismissed these changes as insignificant. In his speech, he stated: “We have good news; inflation is decreasing and moving toward our target. Therefore, it is likely that we can continue reducing interest rates.” He added, “We are confident in our projections and expect to achieve our inflation target, possibly in the first half of next year.” Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, in an article for The Economist, discussed how Europe’s savings can be transformed into investments, innovation, and growth. She highlighted that Europe faces numerous economic challenges and that directing savings toward productive investments is essential to stimulate growth. Lagarde emphasized the need for a strong capital markets union in Europe to better allocate financial resources and improve access to capital for innovative companies. She also stressed the importance of structural reforms to enhance the business environment and encourage entrepreneurship. She pointed to the role of coordinated fiscal and monetary policies in supporting sustainable and innovative investments and underscored the importance of cooperation among EU member states in achieving these objectives. Additionally, she called for the establishment of a stable and predictable legal and regulatory framework to boost investor confidence and drive economic growth. A recent Cluster17 survey revealed that around 54% of French citizens want President Emmanuel Macron to resign and for early presidential elections to be held in 2025. The survey also showed strong public polarization regarding the collapse of the Barnier government, highlighting the inability of political parties to unite voters. Political analyst Stéphane Fournier noted that these results increase pressure on Macron to appoint a new prime minister. The findings also reflect public dissatisfaction with the current political situation and the failure of parties to provide effective solutions to the ongoing crisis. According to a recent Reuters survey of economists, 73 out of 75 economists predict that the ECB will cut the deposit rate by 0.25% during its December meeting. Two others anticipate a 0.5% cut. Moreover, 51 out of 67 economists expect the ECB to reduce the deposit rate to 2% or lower by the end of 2025. Notably, in a November survey, 43 out of 63 economists made the same prediction.
Short
by Ali_PSND