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Eur-gbp

COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: Yet another 13K unwind of net long positions for the CAD in the CFTC data updated until the 20th of July means that a lot of the froth in positioning has been taken care of. Our concerns about positioning for the past few weeks meant a patient stance with CAD longs, but with the size of the unwind we think CAD longs look attractive again on a relative basis. As for the NZD, the currency still looks very ‘cheap’ at the current levels given that the RBNZ is the first major central bank that stopped QE. Apart from that, expectations for rates to go higher in the next three weeks should also provide a favourable environment for the NZD. We like NZD longs versus the Dollar going into this week’s FOMC. We remain patient on AUD with the virus escalation. The challenge for Australia when compared to places like the UK and US is that the vaccination roll out is miles behind. So, if the same type of spike in cases occur it could create a lot of economic pain as we head deeper into Q3. On the radar this week will be employment data, and if that comes in much softer than expected our preferred way to express AUD weakness would be with AUDNZD and AUDCAD downside. JPY, CHF & USD: The JPY positioning remains stretched to the downside, and the fast and punchy recovery in equity markets didn’t do the JPY any favours either. However, the inverse correlation with US10Y could still see JPY pressured. We’ve seen a lot of downside in US10Y over the past few weeks, beyond what majority of market participants (us included) were anticipating. The downside in yields meant one less negative driver for the JPY. But as a ton of the stretched positioning in treasury shorts have arguably been flushed out, we could see yields regain some upside momentum again. For the USD, this week we are turning slightly more cautious on the Dollar. Yes, the USD had good reason to see the upside it enjoyed over the past few weeks. But as the markets are looking for a slightly more cautious sounding Fed this week (due to the Delta variant), and since short-term the price action is looking a bit stretched, there could be some downside for the USD going into the FOMC. GBP: The GBP put in a decent recovery from the lows this week. Monday saw some downside as participants were disappointing when the most dovish member of the BoE said some dovish things. Hardly the type of reaction one would expect, but after the comments from Saunders the week before there was some hope that the overly dovish Haskel might do the same. However, despite the Monday sell off we saw Sterling put in a solid recovery, despite ongoing tensions between the UK and EU regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol. At the current levels, especially with positioning back into net short, one has to argue that GBP is looking attractive from a value perspective. As the markets are expecting a cautious sounding Fed this week, one of the ways we would like to express potential USD weakness in the week ahead is against the GBP. Obviously, we’ll need to keep close track of any major negative escalations on the political front. EUR: The EUR has seen a sizable push lower ever since we had the less dovish than expected June FOMC meeting. After that, the Dollar has enjoyed further upside from various drivers which has kept the EUR pressured, and the ECB’s continued dovish tone sure hasn’t helped. We have been very patient in chasing the EURUSD lower after finding the support around 1.1780 – 1.1850 as a very tough nut to crack. Even though we maintain a fundamental bearish outlook on the EUR and the EURUSD one has to argue that the downside looks a tad stretched. Positioning seems to agree with this as we’ve seen a whopping 72000 reduction in net long positioning in the past 5 weeks (that’s a lot). Yes, the overall net long positioning still looks way too high for the fundamental outlook, but timing doesn’t favour chasing the EUR lower from here. At the current levels the risk-to-reward does look attractive for a possible short-term mean reversion opportunity to the upside for EURUSD going into the FOMC, that is barring any possible risk off environments which should be supportive for the USD. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 20 July 2021.
by thunderpips
7
EURGBP a turn at the 0.786 🦐EURGBP tested the 0.786 before starting an impulse to the daily resistance area in blue. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above we will set a nice long order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
12
EURGBP Chart AnalysisHi everyone I hope you are well After the previous analysis and reaching the price of 0.8613, we saw a fake break in the resistance trend line and the price acted according to the second scenario and dropped to the support level at 0.8510. Currently, the price is facing significant support and we expect the price to return from the same level. If the candlestick forms a candlestick pattern in the next four hours, you can enter the purchase by stopping below the support area . 📣 Attention 📣 ⚠️ 1. We publish this trading idea to help analysts, so if you have an idea that you think is right, do not be influenced by this idea. ⚠️ 2. All our analysis and signals are provided free of charge, so we have no obligation to make any profit or loss on our signals and analysis. ⚠️ 3. If you have an idea, write to us in the comments section, we will be happy to use your idea in our analysis.
by fx_iranian_traders
EURGBP facing bearish pressure, potential for further downside!Price is facing bearish pressure as it continues to hold below the descending trendline, moving average and Ichimoku cloud resistances. We could see a reversal at 1st resistance, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension, descending trendline resistance and horizontal pullback resistance, and further downside towards 1st support, in line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks
Short
by TradeGATEHub
EURGBP approaching resistance, potential reversal!Price is approaching 1st resistance, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension and horizontal overlap resistance, where we could see a reversal and further drop towards 1st support, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, 78.6% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing low support. Price is also holding below moving average and descending trendline resistances, showing signs of bearish pressure. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Short
by TradeGATEHub
We remain short EUR/GBP in cash - NomuraIn the UK, the debate is centred on whether the government will decide to go ahead with the 19 July reopening (we expect most of the discussedloosening to materialize, but with some COVID-19 rules to remain for a bit longer) and if and when the BOE will turn more hawkish. Given the rise in the “Delta variant” and the delay in reopening the UK, UK equity outflows in June have weighed on the currency more than we expected. The BOE has also been more cautious than the Fed on rising inflation but, given the UK’s price pressures seen in the survey data, it appears to be just a matter of time before they need to become a bit more accepting of the idea. While we remain EUR optimists, GBP benefits from high exposure to the reopening trade (via equity sector exposure and reflation) and has a central bank that is more likely to tighten policy than the ECB. Thus, we remain short EUR/GBP in cash (target 0.83 by year end) but do note that it is unclear what will happen before the government makes its decision on the roadmap.
by thunderpips
1
EURGBP | SHORT | Areas of InterestDaily Trend: SELL LP Sentiment: -32% Looking for a pull back into the Sell-side imbalance area for a move lower. We did not get a pull back on Mondays, so I am hoping that we should see the mark up of prices for better Sell side prices News Retail Sales @ 9am BST which could cause the market to become volatile for a short period. This could be good or bad but lets hope it moves the market into our favoured direction Focus on seeing this setup happen in the London Session. Don’t forget to follow us on tradingview Happy Trading Mr Ionic
Short
by Little_Big_Movement
EUR/GBP - Bullish View and Multi-Timeframe AnalysisGood morning, traders! Today we bring an analysis in EUR/GBP since it is in an interesting situation and it is possible that it presents a buying opportunity in the short term. will analyze this chart in two higher timeframes (Weekly and Daider to appreciate the scenario better. 🔸Weekly Chart: On the Weekly chart, we can see that the price was in a range about 6 years ago. While it didn't make it to the external low, we see that it had a strong bounce off inside support recently, which is a bullish sign. Although it is an important event, it is not enough to decide it. What we need is to reduce the timeframe a bit and analyze the situation with a magnifying glass. For this, we are going to talk about the Daily graph (Published): 🔸On the Daily chart, we see that after the rebound in the support zone, the price broke the Descending Trendline. This is another bullish sign. Currently, it is in a corrective process. We are waiting for a breakout to the upside to confirm the bullish continuation. When taking a trade, something optimal to consider is to have a better risk-benefit ratio; we could wait for a retest or correction in a shorter timeframe after this breakout.
Long
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
EURGBP facing bearish pressure | 1st July 2021EURGBP is facing bearish pressure as it continues to hold below moving average resistance. A break and close below Sell Entry, in line with horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension, could see price swing towards 1st Support, in line with horizontal swing low support and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
1