EURNOK: Buy opportunity on the Rising Wedge.The pair is trading within a 1W Rising Wedge (RSI = 59.298, MACD = 0.080, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). Yesterday not only it made contact with the Higher Low trend line, but also touched the 1D MA50 (blue line). This indicates that the price has more probabilities to rebound towards a new Higher High. Our Target Zone is 10.400 - 10.500.
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EUR-NOK
EURNOK HEAD AND SHOULDERS - BEARISHWaiting for price to break both the Head and Shoulders Pattern and more Importantly the Ascending Channel, this Advanced pattern is invalid if price doesn't continue to break below this Parallel Channel. There's a chance price can Respect its channel and the market will Reverse Bullish, that is why it is so important we let price work its course and we will enter when price is showing us a continuation (Candle Sticks).
EUR/NOK long term shortThe pair is at historical highs with RSI showing bearish divergence.
EUR/NOK is also forming a bearish triangle which will initiate the long term downtrend.
EUR area is looking to cut interest rates or prolong the QE program. NOK has (the biggest?) sovereign wealthfund which will prove useful if Norway needs fiscal stimulus.
short EUR/NOK also provides a carry. Therefor this is a small carry trade, not like EUR/TRY.
SHORT VISION ON EUR/NOK FULLY EXPLAINED4H CHART EXPLANATION:
In the short term, we observe a Descending Wedge Pattern being formed by the last downtrend. Now we are waiting for a pullback towards the Confluence Zone between the Top of the Wedge Pattern and the Broken Ascending Trendline, and after that a bounce to continue the downside move. This is the short term vision, the mid and long term are explained below on the Daily and Weekly Timeframes.
MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION:
-Daily:
-Weekly:
EURNOK: Possible bearish move.The pair is consolidating on 4H (RSI = 49.952) awaiting for a break out. 1D has followed a perfect symmetry so far on 1D (Inverse Head and Shoulders) and if the 1D MA50 breaks, we expect the price to test the 9.6450 Support.
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forexTrdr EURNOK- NOK THAT PAIR BACK DOWN FROM EXTREME LEVELSMorning traders,
This morning we have had the Swedish central bank come out and delay interest rate rises with market now pricing no rise until early 2020 (from mid 2019). This has had a secondary effect on the Norwegian Krona leading to a 700 pips drop versus the Euro. We are looking to capitalise on this move into extreme overbought territory and looking for a pull back into the previous trading range of 9.55 to 9.60.
The spike bounced off of resistance levels dating back to early 2019 and forming a descending trendline from previous high levels in April and early February as shown in our Trading View charts.
Simple clean trade on event driven news.
As always this is not a trade recommendation and simply technical observation.
Good luck trading
from the Team at forexTrdr
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EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Bullish momentum prevailsThe Euro has been appreciating against the Norwegian Krone since the the middle of October. This movement has been bounded in an ascending channel.
Given that the currency pair is supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, it is likely that the rate continues to go up within the following trading sessions. Technical indicators for the 4H and 1D time frames also support bullish scenario. A potential target is the resistance cluster formed by a combination of the weekly R2, the monthly R1 and the Fibonacci 50.00% retracement located circa 9.6000.
It is the unlikely case that some bearish pressure still prevails in the market, the Euro should not exceed the weekly S2 at 9.4719.
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Downside potentialThe Norwegian Krone has been appreciating against the Euro in a short-term descending channel. This movement began on September 7 when the pair reversed from the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel.
As apparent on the chart, the currency pair is pressured by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. Most likely that the pair will continue to go down and will aim for the support level formed by a combination of the weekly S1 and the Fibonacci 100.00% retracement located circa 9.4100.
If given support level does not hold, it is likely that the exchange rate will continue to go downside to the weekly S2 at 3.3377.
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Pair shows signs of reversalThe most recent development of the EUR/NOK exchange rate is a breakout from the senior channel which occurred near 9.59 on August 16. This move has extended the pair’s three-day gain to 1.65%.
As a result, the Euro reached the upper boundary of a ten-week ascending channel at 9.68. Even though the price still continues to edge higher today, technical indicators are starting to point to a possible change in sentiment.
It is likely that a reversal south occurs soon, as the current three-day surge cannot be sustainable for long. It is likely that the pair makes a U-turn near the channel line and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement somewhere in the 9.70 area. A possible downside target for the following sessions is the 55– and 100-period (4H) SMAs and the monthly PP at 9.50.
1W Channel Down. Long-term short.EURNOK has just posted a Lower High on the long term 1W Channel Down (RSI = 48.488, MACD = -0.015, ROC = -1.366). 9.500 is an important 1D support level and will be tested shortly to confirm the new bearish leg on 1D (now on neutral RSI, Highs/Lows). We are taking this opportunity to open a medium term short with TP = 9.38806.
EURNOK 4HR SHORT OPPORTUNITYTrade what we see:
Price is following a bearish channel with lower highs forming.
We have two support lines to work off, one formed on the 4hr chart and the second formed on the daily time frame.
A pin bar is forming now and I am waiting to setup this short position which has a great risk / reward ratio.
If this pair breaks out and we see a successful retest, then there will be a good long bias.
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Long-term triangle dominatesThe EUR/NOK exchange rate has been constrained by a descending triangle which was formed in November, 2017. After testing the upper boundary of this long-term pattern early in May, the common European currency began depreciating against its Norwegian counterpart, thus reaching its bottom boundary at 9.47, likewise reinforced by the monthly S2, mid-yesterday.
It is likely that some downward pressure still prevails during the remaining part of this week, given that the pair might be pressured lower by the combined resistance of the 55-, 100– and 200-day SMAs near 9.60. However, the general price direction should nevertheless remain upwards in line with the prevailing triangle pattern, with its upper boundary being located at 9.65.
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Bounded in bearish patternsThe movement of EUR/NOK has been bounded in several patterns. Following a two-week period of appreciation, the pair bounced off the upper boundary of the senior channel and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 9.70 and formed a new wave downwards. This movement has been relatively flat, as the Euro has since remained trading near the senior channel.
By mid-today, the pair was testing the combined support of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the 50.0% Fibo line at 9.61. The current positioning of the pair suggests that it should decline both in the short and medium term. The nearest target is the bottom boundary of the junior channel and the 61.8% Fibo at 9.52, while a downward-sloping trend-line circa 9.42 could be targeted within the following two weeks. The 9.60 area still needs to be breached to confirm this scenario.
Conversely, a breakout of the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA at 9.63 is likely to result in a re-test of the senior channel circa 9.68.
NOK'D DOWNCurrent levels of EUR/NOK could offer interesting selling opportunities.
NOK should outperform EUR in the coming weeks and months on the back of growing policy divergence between the Norges Bank’s policy outlook and the ECB’s, which is reflected in an increasingly negative 2Y EUR-NOK rate spread. The divergence could intensify as both banks start to cautiously normalise their policies. Investors may continue to see NOK as a higher beta proxy for the EUR, as NOK tends to outperform when the EUR is supported. EUR/NOK could see 9.40 by the middle of the year. However, depending on incoming data, an undershoot cannot be excluded.
Credit to Credit Agricole Investment Bank