EURNZD Sell a break setup.EURNZD - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 1.6498 (stop at 1.6528)
Prices have reacted from 1.6690.
A break of the recent low at 1.6510 should result in a further move lower.
A break of 1.6500 is needed to confirm follow through negative momentum.
We look for losses to be extended today.
Our profit targets will be 1.6411 and 1.6391
Resistance: 1.6570 / 1.6600 / 1.6630
Support: 1.6530 / 1.6500 / 1.6470
EUR-NZD
EURNZD Sell a break setup.EURNZD - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 1.6488 (stop at 1.6517)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
A break of 1.6490 is needed to confirm follow through negative momentum.
A higher correction is expected.
Our profit targets will be 1.6402 and 1.6382
Resistance: 1.6530 / 1.6570 / 1.6600
Support: 1.6500 / 1.6470 / 1.6430
EUR NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH
1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB
In Oct the ECB didn’t offer new info on policy or forward guidance. Inflation was the biggest talking point among the GC . The bank acknowledged price pressures will be higher and last longer than previously anticipated. But also reiterated that CPI will move back below their 2% target in the med-term (2023). The meeting was as a placeholder meeting for Dec, where they’re expected to announce the way forward for the PEPP and API , with markets expecting a formal end to the PEPP program from March 2022 but looking for info on how and what type of transition to expect for the bond purchase plans. After the meeting, the EUR saw of upside, initially attributed to the bank not pushing back hard enough against money market forecasts for a hike next year but as we noted the move looked more in line with short covering and month-end Dollar selling. For now, the bias for policy remains dovish and a negative for the EUR. Given the past week’s covid developments, it does provide the ECB with an excuse to deliver a dovish tone to any bond purchase program decisions they announce at the Dec meeting.
2. The country’s economic developments
Earlier issues with vaccinations and lockdowns at the start of 2021 weighed on EU growth prospects, with growth differentials against the US and UK still quite wide, despite some of the recent strong economic data. Even though the recent activity data suggests the hit to the economy from previous lockdowns weren’t as bad as feared, the massive climb in case numbers across Europe, and now cases of the new Omicron variant also identified, odds for further lockdowns are increasing. Any further escalation with more member states moving into strict lockdowns will further weigh on growth prospects and the EUR, and as a result (and combined with ongoing central bank policy divergence) the fundamental outlook remains bearish for the EUR. On the fiscal front, attention is still on ongoing discussions among European states to potentially allow the purchase of green bonds NOT to count against budget deficits. Such a decision could drastically change the fiscal picture and we would expect it to be a big positive for the EUR and EU equities if that change should come to pass.
3. Funding Characteristics
The EUR’s funding characteristics are also in focus. As a low yielder (like JPY & CHF), the EUR has been a funding choice among carry trades, especially during 2019 where it was a favourite against high yielding EM’. Also, part of the EUR upside in the initial risk-off scare in March 2020 was attributed to an unwind of large carry trades. Recently the EUR has exhibited some resilience during risk off tones. As more central banks start normalizing policy, the EUR’s use as a funder could add additional pressure in the med-term . But it could also spark risk off upside if some of those trades unwind. This doesn’t make the EUR a safe haven, but as rates climb globally it can become more sensitive to carry.
4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday)
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -7599 with a net non-commercial position of -3826. The Dollar’s downside on Friday was enough to provide the EUR some reprieve in the short-term. Even though we think the bounce in the EUR should be short-lived, we are not ready to look for fresh EURUSD shorts just yet, with the likes of EURNZD offering much more value at current price levels for shorts as long as the virus situation can take a turn for the positive.
NZD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ
The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk ofunderwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Novwas positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rateseen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank hasbrought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) andany new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched, but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook.
2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook.
As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver.
3. Economic and health developments
We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy.
4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday)
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1083 with a net non-commercial position of +13965. The NZD reflects the 2nd biggest net-long positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. That meant that the bar was higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. The subsequent virus concerns kept the pressure on the antipodean, but if we can see some good news on the virus front the current levels for the EURNZD do look attractive for possible downside opportunities (again the focus will be on the developments on the virus front).
head and shoulders pattern...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
EUR NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH
1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB
In Oct the ECB didn’t offer new info on policy or forward guidance. Inflation was the biggest talking point among the GC . The bank acknowledged price pressures will be higher and last longer than previously anticipated. But also reiterated that CPI will move back below their 2% target in the med-term (2023). The meeting was as a placeholder meeting for Dec, where they’re expected to announce the way forward for the PEPP and API , with markets expecting a formal end to the PEPP program from March 2022 but looking for info on how and what type of transition to expect for the bond purchase plans. After the meeting, the EUR saw of upside, initially attributed to the bank not pushing back hard enough against money market forecasts for a hike next year but as we noted the move looked more in line with short covering and month-end Dollar selling. For now, the bias for policy remains dovish and a negative for the EUR. Given the past week’s covid developments, it does provide the ECB with an excuse to deliver a dovish tone to any bond purchase program decisions they announce at the Dec meeting.
2. The country’s economic developments
Earlier issues with vaccinations and lockdowns at the start of 2021 weighed on EU growth prospects, with growth differentials against the US and UK still quite wide, despite some of the recent strong economic data. Even though the recent activity data suggests the hit to the economy from previous lockdowns weren’t as bad as feared, the massive climb in case numbers across Europe, and now cases of the new Omicron variant also identified, odds for further lockdowns are increasing. Any further escalation with more member states moving into strict lockdowns will further weigh on growth prospects and the EUR, and as a result (and combined with ongoing central bank policy divergence) the fundamental outlook remains bearish for the EUR. On the fiscal front, attention is still on ongoing discussions among European states to potentially allow the purchase of green bonds NOT to count against budget deficits. Such a decision could drastically change the fiscal picture and we would expect it to be a big positive for the EUR and EU equities if that change should come to pass.
3. Funding Characteristics
The EUR’s funding characteristics are also in focus. As a low yielder (like JPY & CHF), the EUR has been a funding choice among carry trades, especially during 2019 where it was a favourite against high yielding EM’. Also, part of the EUR upside in the initial risk-off scare in March 2020 was attributed to an unwind of large carry trades. Recently the EUR has exhibited some resilience during risk off tones. As more central banks start normalizing policy, the EUR’s use as a funder could add additional pressure in the med-term . But it could also spark risk off upside if some of those trades unwind. This doesn’t make the EUR a safe haven, but as rates climb globally it can become more sensitive to carry.
4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday)
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -7599 with a net non-commercial position of -3826. The Dollar’s downside on Friday was enough to provide the EUR some reprieve in the short-term. Even though we think the bounce in the EUR should be short-lived, we are not ready to look for fresh EURUSD shorts just yet, with the likes of EURNZD offering much more value at current price levels for shorts as long as the virus situation can take a turn for the positive.
NZD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ
The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk ofunderwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Novwas positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rateseen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank hasbrought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) andany new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched, but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook.
2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook.
As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver.
3. Economic and health developments
We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy.
4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday)
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1083 with a net non-commercial position of +13965. The NZD reflects the 2nd biggest net-long positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. That meant that the bar was higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. The subsequent virus concerns kept the pressure on the antipodean, but if we can see some good news on the virus front the current levels for the EURNZD do look attractive for possible downside opportunities (again the focus will be on the developments on the virus front).
EURNZD Sell the local top.EURNZD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.6677 (stop at 1.6708)
We are trading at overbought extremes.
Bearish divergence is expected to cap gains.
Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
We look for a temporary move higher.
A higher correction is expected.
Our profit targets will be 1.6584 and 1.6564
Resistance: 1.6680 / 1.6700 / 1.6730
Support: 1.6640 / 1.6600 / 1.6570
EUR NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH
1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the ECB
In Oct the ECB didn’t offer new info on policy or forward guidance. Inflation was the biggest talking point among the GC. The bank acknowledged price pressures will be higher and last longer than previously anticipated. But also reiterated that CPI will move back below their 2% target in the med-term (2023). The meeting was as a placeholder meeting for Dec, where they’re expected to announce the way forward for the PEPP and API, with markets expecting a formal end to the PEPP program from March 2022 but looking for info on how and what type of transition to expect for the bond purchase plans. After the meeting, the EUR saw of upside, initially attributed to the bank not pushing back hard enough against money market forecasts for a hike next year but as we noted the move looked more in line with short covering and month-end Dollar selling. For now, the bias for policy remains dovish and a negative for the EUR. Given the past week’s covid developments, it does provide the ECB with an excuse to deliver a dovish tone to any bond purchase program decisions they announce at the Dec meeting.
2. The country’s economic developments
Earlier issues with vaccinations and lockdowns at the start of 2021 weighed on EU growth prospects, with growth differentials against the US and UK still quite wide, despite some of the recent strong economic data. Even though the recent activity data suggests the hit to the economy from previous lockdowns weren’t as bad as feared, the massive climb in case numbers across Europe, and now cases of the new Omicron variant also identified, odds for further lockdowns are increasing. Any further escalation with more member states moving into strict lockdowns will further weigh on growth prospects and the EUR, and as a result (and combined with ongoing central bank policy divergence) the fundamental outlook remains bearish for the EUR. On the fiscal front, attention is still on ongoing discussions among European states to potentially allow the purchase of green bonds NOT to count against budget deficits. Such a decision could drastically change the fiscal picture and we would expect it to be a big positive for the EUR and EU equities if that change should come to pass.
3. Funding Characteristics
The EUR’s funding characteristics are also in focus. As a low yielder (like JPY & CHF), the EUR has been a funding choice among carry trades, especially during 2019 where it was a favourite against high yielding EM’. Also, part of the EUR upside in the initial risk-off scare in March 2020 was attributed to an unwind of large carry trades. Recently the EUR has exhibited some resilience during risk off tones. As more central banks start normalizing policy, the EUR’s use as a funder could add additional pressure in the med-term. But it could also spark risk off upside if some of those trades unwind. This doesn’t make the EUR a safe haven, but as rates climb globally it can become more sensitive to carry.
4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday)
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -7599 with a net non-commercial position of -3826. The Dollar’s downside on Friday was enough to provide the EUR some reprieve in the short-term. Even though we think the bounce in the EUR should be short-lived, we are not ready to look for fresh EURUSD shorts just yet, with the likes of EURNZD offering much more value at current price levels for shorts as long as the virus situation can take a turn for the positive.
NZD
FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH
1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ
The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk ofunderwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Novwas positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rateseen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank hasbrought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) andany new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched, but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook.
2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook.
As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver.
3. Economic and health developments
We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy.
4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday)
Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1083 with a net non-commercial position of +13965. The NZD reflects the 2nd biggest net-long positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. That meant that the bar was higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. The subsequent virus concerns kept the pressure on the antipodean, but if we can see some good news on the virus front the current levels for the EURNZD do look attractive for possible downside opportunities (again the focus will be on the developments on the virus front).
Divergence signals and buying opportunities with EURNZDH4 time frame.
Structure: Downtrend.
A divergence signal and a double bottom reversal pattern appeared at the support area of 1.61000.
The current price tends to break the Key level at 1.63500.
Waiting for the price to clearly break the Key level and appear a retest signal can find buying opportunities.
Profit target is 1.66000 price zone.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Wish you all have a good trading day!
EURNZD November 24 2021Hi, Ethan here. I'm going to analyze EUR against the New Zealand Dollar. Given the raised interest rates up to 0.25% according to market expectation, New Zealand Dollar gets under pressure. I think there are a lot of bullish drivers for the New Zealand Dollar, and this decline in NZD is an opportunity for the long side. so, we can sell EUR/NZD at this level, with the stop at 1.5366 and the target at 1.5301
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in EURNZDTrading suggestion:
". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (1.6201).
. if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. EURNZD is in a range bound, and the beginning of an uptrend is expected.
. The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 57.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.6350
TP2= @ 1.6525
TP3= @ 1.6643
TP4= @ 1.6759
TP5= @ 1.6851
SL= Break below S2
❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView
. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button,
. . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️
💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader?
Now, It's your turn!
Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Trade well, ❤️
ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in EURNZDTrading suggestion:
". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (1.6201).
. if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets."
Technical analysis:
. EURNZD is in a range bound, and the beginning of an uptrend is expected.
. The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support.
. The RSI is at 57.
Take Profits:
TP1= @ 1.6350
TP2= @ 1.6525
TP3= @ 1.6643
TP4= @ 1.6759
TP5= @ 1.6851
SL= Break below S2
❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView
. . . . . Please show your support back,
. . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button,
. . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment!
❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️
💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader?
Now, It's your turn!
Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast.
Trade well, ❤️
ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
EURNZD short ongoing 📉👇My second share of the week is a EURNZD short trade.
Once again POW reversal script is being used for this strategy.
Trade details for current trade are shown on the chart.
We are working the 15M time frame on this strategy.
We're looking for the green line which is take profit target.
Little red arrow is entry point and purple line is stop loss.
Previous four trades can be seen on chart also.
This strategy is looking to make it 7 out of 7 trades.
All the trade history and strategy performance can be found in the report box below.
The report box tabs when pressed show all the details of trades taken and logged.
You as the viewer of this idea can also do that so go ahead and have a play.
------------------------------------------
I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily.
Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way.
------------------------------------------
Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏
Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌
No one likes missing out, do they?
Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren
EURNZD on a range break 🦐EURNZD on the 4h chart is trading in a range over a weekly support.
The price recently broke the minor ascending channel and now is testing the structure.
According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below and satisfy the ACADEMY conditions we will set a nice short order.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
EUR/NZDLooking for something like this on EN
Monthly & Weekly - Bearish
Daily - Bullish
4H & 1H - Currently bearish but i am looking for the 1H & 4H to turn bullish to take an entry long up to the daily structure & weekly 78.6
Looking for a break of the 4H descending trend line before looking to enter a buy position
You could class this as a counter trend trade since the higher timeframes are bearish but the R:R is good and i expect a bigger pull back on this pair
EURNZD an inverse h&s range 🦐EURNZD on the 4h chart tested a few times the weekly support.
The market after a false breakout took the liquidity and is now testing the neckline at the 1.63 level of inverse head and shoulder formation
According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above and the ACADEMY conditions will be satisfied we will set a nice long order.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Outlook on EURNZD: Bullish play seenOn the weekly time frame, prices tapped into the demand zone where we could see a pullback in prices. On the H4 time frame, we are seeing bullish order flow with prices failing to form lower lows. Currently, prices are testing a key resistance at 1.63152 and a break above this level could see prices push higher to the next resistance target at 1.65311, in line with the 50% fibonacci retracement. EMA and Ichimoku cloud are showing signs of bullish pressure as well supporting our bullish bias.
EURNZD on a false breakout 🦐EURNZD on the 4h chart tested a few times the weekly support.
The market a false breakout took the liquidity and is now testing a 4h resistance at the 1.62 level.
According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above and the ACADEMY conditions will be satisfied we will set a nice long order.
–––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.