Potential bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.08843
1st Support: 1.08350
1st Resistance: 1.09356
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Eur-usd
EURUSD - 4H Sell opportunityThe EUR/USD 1-hour chart shows a clear pattern of bullish movements, marked by three distinct legs of upward momentum.
Each leg is followed by a pullback, indicating a consistent pattern of price corrections after bullish advances.
Given this recurring behavior, it is likely that EUR/USD will experience another pullback similar to the previous movements.
For the target of this anticipated pullback, we can consider the base of the latest rise, which is highlighted around the 1.0820 level.
This area marks the starting point of the most recent upward leg, and it is a logical support level where the index might find stability after the expected retracement.
Traders should watch for bearish signals confirming the pullback and prepare to take advantage of potential buying opportunities at the support zone.
EURUSD Perfect level to sell on the Lower HighThe EURUSD pair hit the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 5-month Channel Down and got immediately rejected. This pull-back is most likely the start of the new Bearish Leg on its way for a Lower Low at the bottom of the pattern.
Technically, we are on almost perfect symmetry with the previous Leg, which formed a Lower High after a 4H Golden Cross. When the 4H MACD completed a Bearish Cross on the 0.00240 level (which is where we are now), the sell signal was confirmed.
As a result, we most likely have the most optimal sell confirmation right now. Target 1 is just above Support 1 at 1.07300 and Target 2 just above Support 2 at 1.06550.
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EURUSD: Confirm after reviewing ECB Financial Stability ReviewThere's a bullish sentiment in both the short-term and mid-term outlooks for the pair.
Two critical zones to watch are approximately 1.08356 and 1.08585.
Consider ECB Financial Stability Review and then enter regarding your personal setup.
EURUSD: Overbought on 1D presenting a sell opportunity.EURUSD is overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 71.115, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 33.336) with the price approaching the top/ LH trendline of the long term Channel Down. It is already past the 0.618 Fibonacci level, where the last LH got rejected but the 1D RSI is right where the tops of December 27th 2023 and March 7th 2024 where formed. This is a solid low risk sell opportunity, aiming for the next LL on a 1.236 Fib extension (TP = 1.05550).
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EURUSD Broke out the main trend amidst soft cpiHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a buying opportunity around 1.08350 zone, EURUSD was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 1.08350 support and resistance area.
Fundamentally the CPI of today was quiet priced, nothing above the expectations so that shouldn't give the dollar any further boost.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD - A Top-down Analysis (BEARISH BIAS)I'm going to start from the yearly timeframe and work my way down to the monthly, weekly, and lastly the daily timeframe.
Here on the yearly timeframe we have price coming into a yearly SIBI a couple of times before displacing down into a yearly Sibi. After which, we have a close above equilibrium, and the subsequent year came up into a yearly Breaker (Body) before what looks now like a move lower to take out at the very least the previous year's low.
12-MONTH
On the 6-month timeframe we see a nested Sibi support my bearish bias/narrative. At this point I do not see any discount PD Arrays, but I will be mindful of consequent encroachment of large wick of the swing low's candle.
6-MONTH
On a closer review of the 1-month timeframe, we see a monthly BISI seemingly about to close below it. If that is the case, I would like to see a return into that to be treated as an iFVG. My current draw on liquidity is the relative equal lows (Body).
1-MONTH
On the weekly timeframe we have an even clearer picture. The recent displacement is more prominent, and we can see that a weekly SIBI was created into the monthly potential iFVG (BPR). High up at my second POI is a weekly Bearish Orderblock that may still be a viable possibility for price to reach towards. Inside of that is a daily Unicorn model, which can be seen on the current daily chart. Much of my narrative is based on red folder news coinciding with how I am anticipating the weekly candles to close, mostly anticipating it closing below the SIBIs/iFVGs. The closer price gets to one of the major red folder news events such as CPI/PPI/FOMC, the more extreme of a displacement I am expecting. It is also key that I see some sort of manipulation to take place to shake out the retail crowd.
1-WEEK
So, let's see what unfolds in the coming weeks.
Trade safe!
- R2F
EURUSD: two scenarios
Daily Chart Analysis:
A long-term bearish channel is evident.
Additionally, a mid-term bullish channel is clearly visible.
1-Hour Chart Analysis:
A short-term bullish channel has formed.
Trading Strategy:
Await a breakout above the zone to consider long positions.
Alternatively, short trades could be initiated after a break below the weekly pivot at 1.07605 and the short-term bullish channel.
Potential bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has just reacted off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.0798
1st Support: 1.0727
1st Resistance: 1.0852
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD 1st 4H GoldenCross since February! Breakout or rejection?The EURUSD pair completed on Friday its first Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame since February 29. Technically that is a bullish pattern but we are only willing to treat it as a buy opportunity if the pair closes a 4H candle above the Lower Highs trend-line).
If it does, we will most likely have a bullish break-out like March 06 towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level or the top of the Channel Down. This is at least what the symmetrical Bullish Leg of the Channel Down did following the Feb 29 4H Golden Cross and topped on March 08. In that case our Target will be 1.08350 (Fib 0.618).
Until that 4H candle closing, we will be selling the Lower Highs rejection, targeting 1.06550 (just above Support 1), which is what happened on March 22. Notice that the 4H RSI pattern is more similar currently to March 13.
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R2F Weekly Analysis - 13th May 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. Without any prior preparations on the chart, I'm going to go through various pairs, and giving a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends before the new week. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what i'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
If you are lazy to watch the video, which is your loss, the TLDR is that I am still bullish Dollar and waiting for the manipulation and reversal back to the upside, potentially this week with CPI/PPI/FOMC red folder news occurring. All my analysis of other pairs revolve around this.
I did not go to the sub 4H timeframe in this video, but how I do my analysis on the higher timeframes is the same as how I would look for entries on the lower timeframes. The only difference is that I would consider the ICT Killzones and weekday tendencies along my usual techniques.
Hit me up if you want to learn more or are struggling to find your footing and need help.
- R2F
Potential bearish drop?Price has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could potentially drop from this level to out take profit.
Entry: 1.07879
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.08123
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.07289
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level which aligns with the61.8% Fibonacci projection.
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EURUSD 13-17 May 2024 W20 - Weekly Analysis - EU & US CPI Week!This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 13-17 May 2024 W20 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
The narrative surrounding the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the rest of its G10 peers continues to dominate the macro scenario in the market. On this, the FedWatch Tool tracked by CME Group sees the probability of a Fed’s rate reduction in September nearly 70%.
With the inflation reports expected this week (CPI), If inflation stays high but doesn't speed up much more, the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates higher for a longer time. This is because the market is worried about inflation staying high, and if there's a surprise where inflation doesn't increase as much as feared, the reaction will likely be smaller. Powell, said they would only raise rates if they had convincing proof that their current policies are too tight.
Right now, the market expects interest rates to be cut twice by the end of the year. However, if we see another report showing high inflation, those expectations might change. A weaker report might lead to just one rate cut being expected instead of two, but not much more than that. The Federal Reserve might wait until their meeting in September at the earliest to make any major decisions, unless there's a sudden worsening in the job market.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bearish
Reached Swing EQ
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
After the Bearish iBOS we confirmed that the Swing Pullback is over and we will target the Weak INT Low and the Weak Swing Low.
3.
Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and initiated the Bearish Internal Structure Continuation.
Expectation is to continue bearish and target he Weak INT Low.
4.
Price tapped into a Weekly demand zone that is currently providing Pullback for the continuation down to the Weak INT Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
INT Bearish
Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2.
Internal Structure continuing bearish following the Bearish Swing.
3.
After the Bearish iBOS we expect a Pullback.
Price in a clear corrective move to the upside after tapping the Weekly Demand Zone which initiated the Bearish iBOS Pullback Phase.
As expected last week with the probability of a deep pullback, price reached the Daily Supply. With that deep Pullback, there is a HP that we can continue the Bearish INT Structure with expectation to target the Weak INT Low and possibly the Weak Swing Low.
More development required on LTF to show signs of Bearish Structure to validate the expectations.
4.
Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions to fulfill the INT Pullback Phase.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
With the 4H INT is Bullish, it's for me not much aligning with the Daily TF which makes the view unclear from a trend prospective.
Are we going to hold Bullish Internal to maybe have a more deeper PB on Daily, or we are going to turn bearish on the 4H Internal to continue the Daily Swing/INT Structure trend.
With the current week inflationary reports coming out from EU and US, most probably we will have more price development that can facilitate a HP setups.
Economic Events for the Week
EUR USD signal EUR/USD is the forex ticker that tells traders how many US Dollars are needed to buy a Euro. The Euro-Dollar pair is popular with traders because its constituents represent the two largest and most influential economies in the world. Follow real-time EUR/USD rates and improve your technical analysis with the interactive chart. Discover the factors that can influence the EUR/USD forecast and stay up to date with the latest EUR/USD news and analysis articles. Confirm signal
EURUSD: Regarding the NewsTwo scenarios:
If the composite index level based on surveyed consumers favors USD or remains normal, we'll follow the red path towards the bottom of the bullish channel.
If any announcement exceeds 77, there's a possibility of breaking below the bottom of the channel.
The dotted green path is in case of any surprise gains for the US dollar. In that scenario, we'll wait for a breakout of the zone and a reversal to it.
EUR USD signal EUR/USD is the forex ticker that tells traders how many US Dollars are needed to buy a Euro. The Euro-Dollar pair is popular with traders because its constituents represent the two largest and most influential economies in the world. Follow real-time EUR/USD rates and improve your technical analysis with the interactive chart. Discover the factors that can influence the EUR/USD forecast and stay up to date with the latest EUR/USD news and analysis articles. Confirm signal
EURUSD 9 May 2024 W19 - Intraday Analysis - US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 9 May 2024 W19 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Nothing changed since the start of the week and as per Tuesday sentiment, investors are waiting for a catalyst to have a clear policy direction for the upcoming quarter.
4H Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bearish
Internal Bullish
Reached Swing EQ
INT Structure Pullback Phase
2.
Swing continuing bearish following the HTF Bearish Trend. Expectations is set for the Swing to stay bearish to fulfill the HTF targets.
3.
Nothing much changed since yesterday as we just tapping into a demand zone (FLIP) that may provide some bullish reaction.
INT Structure turned Bullish signaling a complex pullback phase with deep pullback that reached the Swing EQ and tapped into the Daily Supply.
Currently with INT Structure is Bullish we don't have a solid confirmation that the Swing PB is over and we will continue Bearish. Instead, INT structure could continue Bullish.
More Price development required from LTF in order to play the INT Structure PB or the INT structure Bullish continuation.
15m Chart Analysis
1.
Swing Bullish
Internal Bullish
Long : Phase B (LP)
Short : Phase C (HP)
2.
Finally we are barely out from Friday NFP Range and price still ranging with clear direction.
With a Bearish iBOS we confirmed the 15m Swing Pullback.
Currently price tapped and formed Bullish Sub-Internal Structure that is facilitating the INT Pullback.
Not convinced much of Longs as per our position in the HTF (Tapped into Daily Supply), instead will follow the Bearish INT Structure and look for Shorts from 15m Supply that are well positioned within the Swing.
3.
15m/4H Demand zones for possible longs one reached.
EURUSD: 1D MA50-200 rejection. Strong sell.EURUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.370, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 29.673) as it got rejected on the 1D MA50-MA200 level, which stopped the bullish wave of the Channel Up from extending higher and potential breaking the pattern. The 1D RSI is on the stage where it should reverse as per March 12th. This is a strong sell signal, TP = 1.05550 (the 1.236 Fibonacci extension level).
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EURUSD - 📈 => 📉Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
As per my last analysis (attached on the chart), EURUSD rejected our blue circle zone and traded higher.
What's next?
📈 EURUSD has been overall bearish long-term , trading within the falling wedge pattern in red.
Currently, EURUSD is approaching the upper bound of the wedge pattern.
Moreover, the green zone is a strong resistance.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURUSD approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich