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EURUSD: Analyzing Powell's Stance and Strong US GrowthIn today's trading session, we are eyeing a selling opportunity on EURUSD around the 1.08600 zone, as the pair continues to trend downward and is presently in a correction phase approaching the 1.08600 support and resistance area. Adding a fundamental layer to our analysis, Chair Powell's recent stance regarding a potential rate cut in March is a significant signal for the market. His explicit statement that a rate cut is not the Federal Reserve's base case, coupled with a robust payrolls report, strongly reinforces this message. It's noteworthy that Chair Powell, having access to a wealth of information beyond what's available to the markets, deliberately chose to assert the Fed's position against rate cuts, rather than leaving the possibility open. Moreover, in an environment where US economic growth leads the way, it typically bodes well for the Dollar. This assertion aligns with the recent strong performance of the US economy, as evidenced by robust employment data and other economic indicators, further supporting the potential for a strengthening US Dollar against the Euro. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
1
EURUSD 7 Feb 2024 W6 - Intraday Analysis - US Trade BalanceThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. As per yesterday analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Still Holding. We had formed this Bullish CHoCH yesterday and according to that we formed a fresh demand zone that could have the potential to provide a deeper pullback to the 4H iBOS and maybe the continuation on the 4H Bullish Swing. I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply at the INT High. Lets wait for the LTF to guide us. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Waiting Pullback Phase 2. Swing is Bearish and we are currently in the bearish momentum after the break. Price reached the 4H Swing Low and the Daily INT Low and failed to close below for 2 times now (Just wicked micro pips below it). Could be a sweep of LIQ or just mitigation and continuation bearish. No HTF POI mitigation yet. From a structure prospective, We are expecting a Pullback for the 15m Swing and the 4H INT Structure. I'll wait for the pullback phase after the 15m Bullish iBOS putting in consideration that there is a HP that we can create a Bearish 4H BOS and Daily iBOS. (Shorting the lows or after Break of Structure is not my edge) Lets wait and see more price development. 3. 15m INT Structure is bearish and we are in the continuation after the Swing BOS. Price failed for the 2nd time to break the 4H Swing Low/Daily INT Low yesterday and formed a Bullish CHoCH on the 4H. With that CHoCH we created a 4H Demand (Not the most convincing zone but better than nothing :D) 4H Supply within this INT Structure is the only supply that could provide a Bearish continuation. But be mindful that we could start also the Swing Pullback at anytime.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 6 Feb 2024 W6 - Intraday Analysis - EU Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 6 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. In order to confirm a Sweep, i need at least a Bullish CHoCH as reaction from the Swing Low otherwise we will take the Swing Low as per the HTF expectations. I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply at the INT High. Lets wait for the LTF to guide us. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Waiting Pullback Phase 2. Swing is Bearish and we are currently in the bearish momentum after the break. Price reached the 4H Swing Low and the Daily INT Low and failed to close below (Just wicked micro pips below it). Could be a sweep of LIQ or just mitigation and continuation bearish. No HTF POI mitigation yet. From a structure prospective, We are expecting a Pullback for the 15m Swing and the 4H INT Structure. I'll wait for the pullback phase after the 15m Bullish iBOS putting in consideration that there is a HP that we can create a Bearish 4H BOS and Daily iBOS. (Shorting the lows or after Break of Structure is not my edge) Lets wait and see more price development. 3. 15m INT Structure is bearish and we are in the continuation after the Swing BOS. 4H Supply within this INT Structure is the only supply that could provide a Bearish continuation. But be mindful that we could start also the Swing Pullback at anytime.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD: Correction Phase Encounters Fed's Hawkish Tone.In today's trading session, our attention is on EURUSD, with a potential selling opportunity around the 1.08800 zone. Technically, EURUSD is in a downtrend, and it's currently undergoing a correction phase, nearing the trend at the 1.08800 support and resistance area. Adding a fundamental layer to our analysis, recent remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have influenced our outlook on the market. Powell's warning, communicated yesterday, has emphasized the Fed's intention to refrain from rate cuts in March. This signal suggests a potentially firmer stance on monetary policy, which could strengthen the US dollar against major currencies like the euro. The ECB's recent focus on data rather than specific dates signals a potential shift in policy stance, suggesting a cautious outlook for the Euro. Economic indicators, including PMIs and GDP tracking for Germany, hint at sluggish growth. Additionally, the ECB's survey data indicates contained inflation expectations and declining plans for wage and price increases among firms. These factors suggest that constraints on the ECB may be easing, potentially leading to a divergence in real interest rate differentials against the Euro in the coming months. Considering this fundamental development, we anticipate that any further upside in EURUSD may be limited, especially around the 1.08800 level, as the market digests Powell's comments and adjusts its expectations regarding the Fed's policy trajectory. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
6
EURUSD 1st 1W MACD Bearish Cross in 6 months! Bearish.The EURUSD pair is declining on a rapid pace and this is a good time to update our sell perspective that we shared with you 3 weeks ago (see chart below): This time we transition onto the 1W time-frame in order to gain a more efficient long-term understanding of the trend. The biggest development has been the completion of a 1W MACD Bearish Cross on last week's closing. This is the 1st such formation in 6 months (since the week of August 07 2023) and every time it happened in the past 12 months, the downtrend was extended for at least another 3 weeks. Technically we are on the new Bearish Leg of the 1-year Channel Down, below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), having started with a clear rejection on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Practically, the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), has been the Support since the November 06 2023 candle, having closed all 1W candles above it. Basically since April 2023, it has acted as such on numerous occasions. As a result, our medium-term Target remains 1.06500 and then only a 1W candle close below the 1W MA100 would make us take a new sell and target 1.0500, which is the top of the 2-year Support Zone. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
EURUSD 5 Feb 2024 W6 - Intraday Analysis - EU PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 5 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback and the current CHoCH is the INT High. So either price engineer a new CHoCH or it will target the INT High (i Doubt we have catalyst for that this week). I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply. Lets wait for the LTF to guide us. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish 2. Swing couldn't sustain Bullish after the Bullish BOS and turned Bearish with NFP news on last Friday. After a BOS we expect a pullback but be mindful that HTF are looking to target the 4H Swing Low and Daily INT Low so there is a HP we will continue down. But for me following the structure and expectations, I'll be looking for the Swing Pullback after a bullish iBOS. And most probably will play the Bearish move when we tap into a HTF POI. 3. 15m INT Structure is bearish and we are in the continuation after the Swing BOS. Price could continue from here bearish to the 4H Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
Sell EURUSD H4 Channel BreakoutEUR/USD Poised for Potential Downtrend as Bullish Channel Breaches Lower Boundary. The EUR/USD pair might be heading south, exhibiting a bearish signal on its H4 chart. A recent breakdown through the lower border of a bullish channel pattern suggests waning upward momentum and a potential shift in trend. Key Points: Bullish Channel Breakout: The price had been confined within an ascending channel, characterized by rising support and resistance lines. However, a recent break below the lower support at 1.0900 indicates a potential shift in momentum towards the downside. Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price near 1.0900, offering an entry point close to the breakout level. Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the support levels of 1.0700 and 1.0585, marking the previous bottoms within the channel. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the resistance line of the broken channel at 1.0950 EUR/USD News and Events to Watch Next Week (January 29 - February 2): Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting and Interest Rate Decision (Jan 31): This is the biggest event of the week. A hawkish Fed stance with another large rate hike (75bps or more) and strong economic projections could significantly strengthen the USD against the EUR. Conversely, dovish hints or smaller rate increases could favor the EUR. US Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb 2): Strong jobs growth could indicate a resilient US economy and support the USD. Conversely, weaker data could dampen hawkish sentiment and benefit the EUR. Always wait for strong Conformation in Short term for entry. 👈👈👈 If you found my post helpful or informative, could you please leave a comment 💬🖌 and hitting that like button💚💚 “Markets are never wrong, but opinions often are.”-Jesse Livermore Good Luck💛💛 Thank you
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
13
EURUSD 5-9 Feb 2024 W6 Weekly AnalysisThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 5-9 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: Weekly Daily 4H Economic Events Weekly Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached Swing EQ (Pro Swing + Pron Internal) 2. After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low. Price reached the INT Extreme and tapped the Weekly Supply Zone and we are currently targeting at least the CHoCH and then the Weak INT Low. 3. With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase. Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from. Still the OF is Bullish within the Pullback Phase and the Bearish CHoCH will be the first sign to confirm the Bearish continuation from the Weekly Supply. Expectation now set to see price continuing bearish. Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Reached Extreme 2. Within the Bearish Swing we are currently in the Swing pullback reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone (But didn't reach the Daily Supply) and started the INT Structure Pullback after the Bullish iBOS. For the Bearish Swing to continue bearish, we want to see a Bearish iBOS to confirm that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the Swing Continuation to target the Weak Swing Low. But currently the INT Structure still Bullish so there is also a possibility that we can still continue up. We still in the Daily Pullback Phase and price reached the last Daily demand zone. As Swing is Bearish, Expectations that there is a high probability that we will take the Strong INT low. On the Flip Side (Bullish) we could hold the current Demand/INT Low to target the Weak INT High. Lets wait to see more price development and LTF to guide us. 3. Price had mitigated the adjusted Supply zone. OF is bearish in the INT structure pullback Phase and is so corrective in nature. (Supply in Control) 4. Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback and the current CHoCH is the INT High. So either price engineer a new CHoCH or it will target the INT High (i Doubt we have catalyst for that this week). I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply. Lets wait for the LTF to guide us. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURO - Price can bounce up from support area to resistance lineHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 When price entered to rising channel, it rose to $1.1010 resistance level, which coincided with resistance area. But then, Euro made downward impulse to support area, exiting from channel and starting to trades in wedge. In wedge, price made fake breakout of $1.0780 level and then in a short time rose to resistance line of support line. After this, Euro fell below $1.1010 resistance level, breaking it, and then continued to decline. Later Euro declined to support level, and at once bounced to resistance line, but recently it fell back. Now, I think that Euro can decline to support area, after which price turn around and start to move up to $1.0860 resistance line of wedge. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Long
by WalterMoon
1
EURUSD 2 Feb 2024 W5 - Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 2 Feb 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. As the INT Structure turned Bearish, we resumed again the Swing Pullback which in my opinion going to target the Swing Low. After iBOS we expected a Pullback, CHoCH is the first sign that the INT Structure Pullback is starting. Price did the Pullback and failed after to break and close below the Weak INT Low. This leaded to target the High that failed to break the low. Still the INT is bearish but in point #2 we are assuming that Bullish Swing Continuation could start at any time so this could be the one. Bullish iBOS will be a solid sign for that. More Price development needed to assess better. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Swing Extreme 2. Swing is Bearish after mitigating a HTF Supply. After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the15m Swing Extreme and 4H Supply Zone. INT Structure still bullish so there is HP to take out this Strong Swing High. On the Flip side, a failure to create a Bullish BOS and we get a Bearish iBOS will indicate that the Swing Pullback is over and we could be starting the Pro Bearish Swing Move. Today NFP so be cautious. 3. 15m/4H Demand zones for reaction when reached.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD Will the Fed's unchanged rate pressure the pair more?The EURUSD pair is extending its downtrend within the 1-month Channel Down and basically this is a quick update to our most recent analysis (January 19, see chart below) on the 1D time-frame: Following the Fed Rate Decision yesterday, which left it unchanged at 5.50% and made clear they are in no rush to cut rates, we think it would be helpful to look at the 4H time-frame again and identify additional trade opportunities. Based on the comparison with the previous Bearish Leg (dotted Channel Down, July - September 2023) of the long-term Channel Down (blue), yesterday's rejection on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) puts the price action on a similar level as August 22 2023. This suggests that after this rejection is completed, we will get one final rebound that shouldn't break the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and which should be the final sell opportunity before testing the 1W MA200 (yellow trend-line) and the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Perhaps the ideal signal to enter this additional medium-term sell, would be when the 4H RSI turns overbought again at 70.00, similar to the August 30 (Lower) High. As you can see on the chart, our sell trading plan has Target 1 at 1.07500 and Target 2 at 1.06500 (1W MA200 contact). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
3
EURUSD 1 Feb 2024 W5 - Intraday Analysis - EU CPI - US PMI/JobsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 1 Feb 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. As the INT Structure turned Bearish, we resumed again the Swing Pullback which in my opinion going to target the Swing Low. After iBOS we expect a Pullback, CHoCH is the first sign that the INT Structure Pullback is starting. Price made a ChoCH yesterday confirming the INT Low and a Sweep of Liq to continue the bearish INT Structure. Currently we are going to take this INT Low and there is a high probability that the Swing Low is the target after. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish 2. Swing is Bearish after mitigating a HTF Supply. After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the EQ. With the news yesterday price Swept Liq above the Strong Swing High and the 4H CHoCH to resume the move to the down side targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low. Most probably this Swing Low will be broken. 3. Currently price is in Bearish INT Structure and expectation that we will break the Swing Low. Just be mindful that Shorts now are not preferred as we are at the end of the move. Will wait to see if there is option for Pullback plays after the BOS or hold my hands this week for better opportunities next week.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 31 Jan 2024 W5 - Intraday Analysis - FOMC Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 31 Jan 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. As the INT Structure turned Bearish, we resumed again the Swing Pullback which in my opinion going to target the Swing Low. After iBOS we expect a Pullback, CHoCH is the first sign that the INT Structure Pullback is starting. We mitigated the 4H Supply and price reacted from there. Currently we don't have a Bullish CHoCH to confirm the INT Structure Pullback started (It's not a must but it's currently my mechanical approach to define Pullbacks). Price could continue down to create a new low and then the CHoCH position will be changed or Price will try again to create a Bullish CHoCH. Waiting for more price development 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Reached EQ 2. Swing turned Bearish again after mitigating a HTF Supply. After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the EQ. Price reached and mitigated the 15m/4H Supply zones and INT structure turned bearish signaling the 15m Swing Pullback is finished and we are currently Pro Swing aligning with the Bearish Swing as expected. Expectations is that we will target the Weak Swing Low. 3. After INT Structure turned bearish (iBOS) we expect a pullback. The 15m Supply zone within the INT Structure is the only zone that can provide Short opportunity after confirmation. Be mindful that today there is heavy news for Germany, but the most waited news is the US ADP and FOMC/Powell Conference so volatility will be high.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 30 Jan 2024 W5 - Intraday Analysis - EU GDP / US JobsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 Jan 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. As the INT Structure turned Bearish, we resumed again the Swing Pullback which in my opinion going to target the Swing Low. After iBOS we expect a Pullback, CHoCH is the first sign that the INT Structure Pullback is starting. Will be waiting for 15m to align with the 4H request to start a pullback. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Reached EQ 2. Swing turned Bearish again after mitigating a HTF Supply. After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the EQ. Expectation that we are going to target the 15m Weak Swing Low but be mindful that we are currently in Bullish INT Structure. 3. We are currently in Pullback Phase of the Bullish INT Structure. But after the 4H Bearish iBOS the momentum is to the down side. Shorts are the preferred option until the 15m Swing turns Bullish to facilitate the 4H INT Bearish Structure Pullback.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 29 Jan 2024 W5 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 29 Jan 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish OF Bullish In Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the Swing EQ/Discount, mitigating 4H demand zones and ranged. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS indicates that the 4H Swing Pullback had finished and we are starting the 4H Bullish Swing Continuation Phase to target the Weak 4H Swing High. 3. Bullish INT Structure after mitigating the 4H/Daily demand Zones. As we are starting the Swing Continuation Phase, this INT Structure Low is the last structure point to hold for the 4H Swing Continuation Phase. If it failed, there is a high probability that we will target the 4H Swing Low. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Reached EQ 2. Swing turned Bearish after failing at HTF Supply. After a BOS we expect a pullback, INT structure turned Bullish to facilitate the Swing Pullback where we reached the EQ and mitigated the 4H Supply. Expectation that we are going to target the 15m Weak Swing Low but be mindful that we are currently in Bullish INT Structure and the 4H Demand formed after sweeping the LIQ below the 4H Strong INT Low. Wouldn't be much convinced to Short in a 4H Demand Zone. So waiting for more price development. 3. We are currently in Pullback Phase of the Bullish INT Structure and mitigating the 4H Demand Zone. With Swing is Bearish and INT Bullish and we are in Swing Discount, it makes it tough for me to prefer a trade. I'd prefer a new structure after the BOS down or iBOS up.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 29-2 Feb 2024 W5 Weekly Analysis - EUR CPI - US FOMC/NFPThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 29-2 Feb 2024 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: Weekly Daily 4H Economic Events Weekly Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached Swing EQ INT Extreme 2. After the iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low. 3. With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase. Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from. Still the OF is Bullish within the Pullback Phase and the Bearish CHoCH will be the first sign to confirm the Bearish continuation from the Weekly Supply. Expectation now set to see price continuing bearish. Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Reached Extreme 2. Within the Bearish Swing we are currently in, the Swing pullback reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone (But didn't reach the Daily Supply) and started the INT Structure Pullback after the Bullish iBOS. For the Bearish Swing to continue bearish, we want to see a Bearish iBOS to confirm that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the Swing Continuation to target the Weak Swing Low. But currently the INT Structure still Bullish so there is also a possibility that we can still continue up. We still in the Daily Pullback Phase and price reached the last Daily demand zone. As Swing is Bearish, Expectations that there is a high probability that we will take the Strong INT low. On the Flip Side (Bullish) we could hold the current Demand/INT Low to target the Weak INT High. Lets wait to see more price development and LTF to guide us. 3. Price had mitigated the adjusted Supply zone (Was mapping only the Inside Bar) that caused the bearish CHoCH and continued down. Current PA is so corrective and doesn't have any momentum. 4. Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish OF Bearish In Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS indicates that the 4H Swing Pullback had finished and we are starting the 4H Bullish Swing Continuation Phase to target the Weak 4H Swing High. But be mindful that the OF is so bearish in the Swing Pullback Phase and Demand is not holding and we see momentum. And with the Daily Bearish Swing there is a high probability that we will continue down. So be cautious with the Bullish Structures as it could be only Fake-Out. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bullish INT Structure after mitigating the 4H/Daily demand Zones. As we are starting the Swing Continuation Phase, this INT Structure Low is the last structure point to hold for the 4H Swing Continuation Phase. We have seen that Price swept the LIQ below the Strong INT Low and created a Bullish CHoCH but still Supply in Control. If the last demand created from the LIQ sweep failed and we confirmed a close below the INT Low, My expectations will be that the Daily Swing Continuation in Play and we will take the Current 4H Swing low and Daily INT Low. This week is so volatile as we have EUR Zone GDP and CPI also USA FOMC and NFP. So be cautious this week. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 26 Jan 2024 W4 - Intraday Analysis - US PCEThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 26 Jan 2024 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish OF Bullish In Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the Swing EQ/Discount, mitigating 4H demand zones and ranged. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS indicates that the 4H Swing Pullback had finished and we are starting the 4H Bullish Swing Continuation Phase to target the Weak 4H Swing High. 3. Bullish INT Structure after mitigating the 4H/Daily demand Zones. As we are starting the Swing Continuation Phase, this INT Structure Low is the last structure point to hold for the 4H Swing Continuation Phase. If it failed, there is a high probability that we will target the 4H Swing Low. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish INT INT Bearish At Swing Extreme 2. Swing turned Bullish after mitigating the 4H/Daily Demand zones as expected yesterday. After the BOS we expect a 15m Swing pullback which we are already in this phase after the Bearish CHoCH. INT Structure turned bearish to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback. 3. Price currently at the Extreme Swing low and there is a high probability that we are going to take the 15m Strong Swing Low according to the Bearish PA.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD's Strategy Amid US Core PCEIn tomorrow's trading session, EURUSD enthusiasts are eyeing a buying opportunity around the 1.07400 zone. As the pair navigates its uptrend amidst a correction phase, attention turns to the impending US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index m/m event. This economic indicator, a measure of inflation, holds significant sway over USD strength and weakness in the forex arena. The previous PCE data reveals a fluctuating trend, with December showcasing a 0.1% reading against a forecast of 0.2%. This variance sets the stage for tomorrow's announcement, where expectations lean towards a potential soft print. A deeper dive into the PCE's influence on USD dynamics underscores its pivotal role in shaping market sentiment. A dovish print tomorrow could further dampen USD's allure, potentially fueling EURUSD's upward momentum. In tandem with this fundamental analysis, technical considerations come into play. The 1.07400 support and resistance area serves as a critical juncture for EURUSD's near-term trajectory. Traders keen on capitalizing on potential USD weakness may find strategic entry points amidst this correction phase. As we await the unfolding of tomorrow's events, traders are urged to approach the market with caution and vigilance. The interplay between fundamental forces and technical setups presents both opportunities and risks, highlighting the need for a well-rounded trading strategy. Trade safe, Joe.
Long
by JoeChampion
3
EURUSD 25 Jan 2024 W4 - Intraday Analysis - EU Rate / US GDPThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 25 Jan 2024 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish OF Bullish In Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the Swing EQ/Discount, mitigating 4H demand zones and ranged. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS indicates that the 4H Swing Pullback had finished and we are starting the 4H Bullish Swing Continuation Phase to target the Weak 4H Swing High. 3. Bullish INT Structure after mitigating the 4H/Daily demand Zones. As we are starting the Swing Continuation Phase, this INT Structure Low is the last structure point to hold for the 4H Swing Continuation Phase. If it failed, there is a high probability that we will target the 4H Swing Low. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bullish INT INT Bearish Pullback Phase 2. Swing turned Bullish after mitigating the 4H/Daily Demand zones as expected yesterday. After the BOS we expect a 15m Swing pullback which we are already in this phase after the Bearish CHoCH. Currently price reached the EQ and 15m/4H demand zones for potential continuation of the Bullish Swing and targeting the Weak Swing High. The 4H Demand is big so be cautious of a deeper pullback within the Swing. My expectations that we will continue Bullish as long we don't close below the 15m Swing Low. 3. Extreme 15m Swing Demand.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 24 Jan 2024 W4 - Intraday Analysis - EU PMI / US PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 24 Jan 2024 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bullish In Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the Swing EQ/Discount, mitigating 4H demand zones and ranged. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range. Still the OF is bearish and if the 4H Bullish swing is going to continue Bullish we need to see bullish reaction at least a bullish CHoCH. On the flip side, if these demand zones failed to hold, there is a high probability that the Bearish Daily/Weekly structures are in play and we are in a HTF Bearish move. Let's see the LTF development to have a clear guide. 3. Price reached the Swing extreme 4H demand and Daily for possible continuation to the upside. As OF is bearish we need to see the formation of demand at least with a Bullish CHoCH and that demand to hold. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Pullback Phase 2. Swing continued Bearish with the recent BOS. After the Swing BOS we expect a Pullback to start, which is currently reacting from the 4H/Daily Demand zones. As per the structure, expectations that the Swing will continue bearish and there is a potential short plays from the 15m/4H Supply within the Swing. (This will solidify the point that the 4H Swing low is the target) But be mindful that we had mitigated a HTF POIs (4H/Daily Demands) in a Bullish 4H Swing so there is also high expectations that the current 15m Swing High could be taken out and turn bullish to confirm the 4H Swing Pullback is over and we are in the 4H Bullish Swing Continuation. Following the structure is the optimum way and we have now 2 scenarios with HTF narratives. Lets wait for price to guide us. 3. Price had tapped into 4H/Daily demand zones and initiated the 15m Swing Pullback. After the ChoCH we will have a confirmed Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek