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EURUSD 16 Feb 2024 W7 - Intraday Analysis - US PPIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 16 Feb 2024 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish INT Pullback Phase 2. After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback. As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback. Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation. Also be mindful that there is also a pullback required for the 4H Swing so there is a HP if price going to stay bullish we will take the Strong INT High. Bullish iBOS will signal a Swing Pullback. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Swing / INT Pullback Phase Swing Extreme 2. Price reached the last Supply and Extreme of the 15m Swing / 4H Supply and initiated the Bullish INT Structure Pullback after. As the Swing is Bearish, expectations is set to continue Bearish. INT to turn bearish will be the signal that the Swing Pullback is over. But also be mindful that the 4H Swing Pullback still required so there is a HP that we may take the 15m Swing High. 3. 15m/4H Demand zones that can provide only reaction and not a buy opportunity.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD to continue in the downward move?EURUSD - 24h expiry The medium term bias remains bearish. Buying pressure from 1.0695 resulted in all the initial daily selloffs being recaptured. Buying posted in Asia. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. We look to Sell at 1.0755 (stop at 1.0780) Our profit targets will be 1.0780 and 1.0765 Resistance: 1.0755 / 1.0764 / 1.0795 Support: 1.0700 / 1.0695 / 1.0650 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
EURUSD 15 Feb 2024 W7 - Intraday Analysis - US Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 15 Feb 2024 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish INT Pullback Phase 2. Swing formed Bearish iBOS signaling that the Daily Bearish Swing Pullback Phase is over and we are currently in the Daily Bearish continuation phase. 3. After a BOS we expect a Swing Pullback. Internal Structure is also Bearish with iBOS, So 4H Swing and INT are expecting a pullback which could start at anytime from the current Daily Demand which is partially mitigated and we are below that mitigation or from the 4H Demand nested within the Daily Demand. Price created a Bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low and we are currently in the INT Structure Pullback Phase. Expectation is set to pullback to the 4H/Daily Supply zones and continue Bearish after. Bullish iBOS will signal a Swing Pullback. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Swing / INT Pullback Phase 2. Previous Swing Pullback ended with the Bearish iBOS and price created another Bearish iBOS with the CPI news which created a Bearish BOS. 3. After a BOS we expect a Swing Pullback. Price created a Bullish iBOS to facilitate the the 15m Swing Pullback. Expectations is set now to continue bullish to the 15m Swing EQ / the 4H-15m Supply zones to continue the Bearish Swing. But be mindful also that the 4H is requesting a Pullback so there is a HP that the 15m Swing could be broken too.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD: The trend continues. Sell again over the 4H MA50.EURUSD has been providing successive low risk signals inside the 2024 Channel Down, as every crossing over the 4H MA50 is a technical sell opportunity. The 1D technical outlook remains bearish (RSI = 36.769, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 25.401) which continues to justify selling inside the Channel Down pattern. We are waiting for yet another 4H MA50 breach in order to sell and target a new -1.33% decline (TP = 1.06600). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
by InvestingScope
EURUSD 14 Feb 2024 W7 - Intraday Analysis - EU GDPThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 14 Feb 2024 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: Daily 4H 15m Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish 2. Within the Bearish Swing we are currently in the Swing pullback reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone (But didn't reach the Daily Supply) and started the INT Structure Pullback after the Bullish iBOS. For the Bearish Swing to continue bearish, we want to see a Bearish iBOS to confirm that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the Swing Continuation to target the Weak Swing Low. Price confirmed a Bearish iBOS yesterday and this signals the Swing continuation phase. 3. After the iBOS we expect a Pullback. Price is currently within the Daily demand on the left which is partially mitigated and approaching a Weekly Demand Zone which could provide reaction to facilitate the Bearish INT Structure Pullback. 4. Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish OF Bearish 2. Swing formed Bearish iBOS signaling that the Daily Bearish Swing Pullback Phase is over and we are currently in the Daily Bearish continuation phase. 3. After a BOS we expect a Swing Pullback. Internal Structure is also Bearish with iBOS, So 4H Swing and INT are expecting a pullback which could start at anytime from the current Daily Demand which is partially mitigated and we are below that mitigation or from the 4H Demand nested within the Daily Demand. A Bullish CHoCH will confirm the INT Low and may start he INT Structure Pullback. But be mindful that we the Bearish momentum we are in, Price can continue Bearish with minor Pullbacks. Current CHoCH is high for price to reach so i'm expecting price to create a new low first before we start the INT Pullback. Bullish iBOS will signal a Swing Pullback. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish 2. Previous Swing Pullback ended with the Bearish iBOS and price created another Bearish iBOS with the CPI news yesterday which created a Bearish BOS. 3. After a BOS we expect a Swing Pullback. Price currently approaching a 4H Demand Zone that can provide reaction for the Pullback. Most probably i'll wait for a Bullish iBOS to signal the Swing Pullback.
by Amr-Sadek
5
EURUSD Best sell signal on a 6 week basis.EURUSD remains within the 6 week Channel Down pattern and with today's analysis we are basically updating our February 01 outlook (see chart below): Our area of focus now is the zone which the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA100 (green trend-line) form. This is depicted on the chart by the red circle and as you see it has formed every Lower High of the Channel Down since January 11. In fact all of them were priced after they touched the 4H MA100. Right now we have only the 4H MA50 breach, but if you cost average your positions effectively, it is good enough to go on a new short-term sell again and target near Support 2 at 1.06650. That represents a -1.42% decline from a potential 4H MA100 Lower High, the minimum decline we've had on a Bearish Leg within the Channel Down. Note that the 4H RSI Rectangle can be used as an additional indicator for buying and selling. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
EURUSD 13 Feb 2024 W7 - Intraday Analysis - US CPI DayThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 13 Feb 2024 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m NOTE: As i came to chart today it had the confusion for the first time since months in a clear view on the 15m Time Frame. This is because the Price behavior since Jan 2024 is not trending clearly specially in the past 2 to 3 weeks. I decided to have 2 Scenarios for the 15m and will see which is the result after. I lean more Scenario 1 but lets see the at the end of the day what will be the results. It's one of these days that the market is telling you go do something else 😃 especially it's US CPI Day and one of the most waited news events since last FOMC meeting. 4H Chart Analysis (Nothing major changed since yesterday) 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount / Possible LiQ Sweep 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is fully mitigated and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. As per previous days analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Swing is still Holding. From the Fractal CHoCHs happening after Sweeping the LiQ below the 4H Swing Low showing that demand in control. We are currently in the Pullback Phase of the Bearish iBOS and expectations to continue Bullish till the INT Structure EQ and maybe extending to the INT Extreme Supply. 15m Chart Analysis - Scenario 1️⃣ 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Pullback Phase 2. INT Structure turned Bullish with iBOS confirming that the 15m Swing Pullback started as expected and we may have a deeper pullback. After iBOS we expect a pullback which already started after a Bearish INT to INT Structure iiBOS. As we didn't reach the Swing EQ or any HP POI we will have still the probability to continue up to maybe the 4H Supply Zone. 3. The INT Structure had finished after the Bullish iiBOS. Price is currently mitigating the INT to INT structure and expectations set to the target the Weak INT to INT high and then the INT High. 15m Chart Analysis - Scenario 2️⃣ (Correction INT Bearish) 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Continuation Phase 2. INT Structure turned Bearish signaling that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the continuation phase targeting the Swing Low. After iBOS we expect a pullback which is already started after a Bullish CHoCH reaching the INT Premium area but didn't mitigate any HP POI. Expectations is set to targeting the Weak INT Low and continuation to target the Weak Swing Low. 3. Demand Zone formed on the INT Pullback which is currently providing reaction and expectations is set to take out the current Weak INT Low.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 12 Feb 2024 W7 - Intraday AnalysisThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 12 Feb 2024 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount / Possible LiQ Sweep 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is fully mitigated and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. As per previous days analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Swing is still Holding. From the Fractal CHoCHs happening after Sweeping the LiQ below the 4H Swing Low showing that demand in control. We are currently in the Pullback Phase of the Bearish iBOS and expectations to continue Bullish till the INT Structure EQ and maybe extending to the INT Extreme Supply. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Pullback Phase 2. INT Structure turned Bullish with iBOS confirming that the 15m Swing Pullback started as expected and we may have a deeper pullback. After iBOS we expect a pullback which already started after a Bearish CHoCH. As we didn't reach the Swing EQ or any HP POI we will have still the probability to continue up to maybe the 4H Supply Zone. 3. As long we we respect the Bullish INT structure we are good to go up. Once we have the Bearish iBOS, the narrative will be that the 15m Swing pullback is over and we will be looking to target the Weak Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
EURO - Price can start to move up and exit from triangleHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently price little declined from $1.0890 resistance level, but soon EUR backed up and even rose higher. But soon, price broke this level and entered to flat, where it some time traded and later rose to $1.0890 level. After this, price started to trades in triangle, where it declined from resistance line to support line, exiting from flat. Later, Euro started to rise near support line and soon reached $1.0785 level, which coincided with support area. In a short time price broke it and at the moment, EUR trades very close to this level, and in my mind, price can little correct. Then Euro can start rise to $1.0840 points, thereby exiting from triangle and breaking $1.0785 level again. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Long
by WalterMoon
2
EURUSD 12-16 Feb 2024 W7 Weekly Analysis - US CPI WeekThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 12-16 Feb 2024 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: Weekly Daily 4H Economic Events Weekly Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish Internal Bearish Reached Swing EQ (Pro Swing + Pron Internal) 2. After the Bearish iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low. Price reached the INT Extreme and tapped the Weekly Supply Zone and as expected we are targeting at least the CHoCH and then the Weak INT Low. Price did the Bearish ChoCH and formed a fresh Supply zone which will be potential for shorts once reached to continue the Bearish INT structure and Swing too. 3. With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase. Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from. Still the OF is Bullish within the Pullback Phase and the Bearish CHoCH will be the first sign to confirm the Bearish continuation from the Weekly Supply. Expectation now set to see price continuing bearish. Daily Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bullish Reached INT Extreme 2. Within the Bearish Swing we are currently in the Swing pullback reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone (But didn't reach the Daily Supply) and started the INT Structure Pullback after the Bullish iBOS. For the Bearish Swing to continue bearish, we want to see a Bearish iBOS to confirm that the Swing Pullback is over and we are in the Swing Continuation to target the Weak Swing Low. But currently the INT Structure still Bullish so there is also a possibility that we can still continue up. We still in the Daily Pullback Phase and price reached the last Daily demand zone. As Swing is Bearish, Expectations that there is a high probability that we will take the Strong INT low. On the Flip Side (Bullish) we could hold the current Demand/INT Low to target the Weak INT High. Lets wait to see more price development and LTF to guide us. 3. Price had mitigated the adjusted Supply zone. OF is bearish in the INT structure pullback Phase and is so corrective in nature. (Supply in Control) 4. Price mitigated the Daily Demand and failed to break the Strong INT Low (Micro pips below). Is it a Sweep of LIQ? In order to confirm the Sweep, i need to see at least a Bullish CHoCH. 5. Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount / Possible LiQ Sweep 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is fully mitigated and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. As per previous days analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Swing is still Holding. From the Fractal CHoCHs happening after Sweeping the LiQ below the 4H Swing Low showing that demand in control. We are currently in the Pullback Phase of the Bearish iBOS and expectations to continue Bullish till the INT Structure EQ and maybe extending to the INT Extreme Supply. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 9 Feb 2024 W6 - Intraday Analysis - US CPI RevisionsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 9 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. As per previous days analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Still Holding. We had formed this Bullish CHoCH yesterday and according to that we formed a fresh demand zone that could have the potential to provide a deeper pullback to the 4H iBOS and maybe the continuation on the 4H Bullish Swing. And as i was waiting for the 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. The 15m aligned with the 4H expectations and we initialized the Pullback Phase for the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 15m Bearish Swing. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Pullback Phase 2. INT Structure turned Bullish with iBOS confirming that the 15m Swing Pullback started as expected and we may have a deeper pullback. After the Bullish iBOS we initiated the pullback of the INT Structure and reached the 4H Demand and we directly bounced back up. We reached the 4H Supply where price is currently reacting. 3. Mitigation of the 4H demand formed a 15m Demand. Not a HP demand for longs but it will provide a reaction if reached. Wouldn't be much convinced to long from this demand again as i'm expecting the orders taken already from the 4H are enough to continue up and reach the Weak INT High. If price reached that deep to this demand, my expectations that we will have a HP move to break the 15m Weak Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD: Selling over the 4H MA50 is the best monthly signal.EURUSD is trading inside a Channel Down ever since it made a High on December 28th 2023 with the 1D technical outlook steadily bearish (RSI = 39.870, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 22.645). After the price crossed under the 4H MA50 on January 2nd 2024, every time it recovered over it, the most optimal sell opportunity emerged for the short term. As long as the 4H MA200 holds, being the current Resistance at the top of the Channel Down, we will sell again once the price breaks and closes over the 4H MA50. Our modest target is -1.40% from a +1.00% rebound extension (TP = 1.06900). Watch also for any rejections on the RSI's Sell or Buy Zone. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
EURUSD 8 Feb 2024 W6 - Intraday Analysis - US Jobless ClaimsThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 8 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m NOTE: Nothing had changed much since yesterday we just managed to reach the 15m INT High but we didn't close above it. So mostly still on my expectations of yesterday. 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. As per yesterday analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Still Holding. We had formed this Bullish CHoCH yesterday and according to that we formed a fresh demand zone that could have the potential to provide a deeper pullback to the 4H iBOS and maybe the continuation on the 4H Bullish Swing. I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply at the INT High. Lets wait for the LTF to guide us. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Waiting Pullback Phase 2. Swing is Bearish and we are currently in the bearish momentum after the break. Price reached the 4H Swing Low and the Daily INT Low and failed to close below for 2 times now (Just wicked micro pips below it). Could be a sweep of LIQ or just mitigation and continuation bearish. No HTF POI mitigation yet. From a structure prospective, We are expecting a Pullback for the 15m Swing and the 4H INT Structure. I'll wait for the pullback phase after the 15m Bullish iBOS putting in consideration that there is a HP that we can create a Bearish 4H BOS and Daily iBOS. (Shorting the lows or after Break of Structure is not my edge) Lets wait and see more price development. 3. 15m INT Structure is bearish and we are in the continuation after the Swing BOS. Price failed for the 2nd time to break the 4H Swing Low/Daily INT Low yesterday and formed a Bullish CHoCH on the 4H. With that CHoCH we created a 4H Demand (Not the most convincing zone but better than nothing :D) Price had mitigated the 4H Supply and the Strong INT High held and price failed currently to break. But be mindful that there will be a Swing Pullback and it seems started and most probably we will have a Bullish iBOS and a deeper pullback.
by Amr-Sadek
4
EURUSD - Small Recovery Before Another DropThe Euro (EUR) didn't move much on Wednesday, but it's been down lately. European economic data is weak, and some people think the European Central Bank (ECB) might cut interest rates soon. Here are some key things to watch: Germany's industrial production fell more than expected in December . This could be a sign that the European economy is slowing down. The ECB will release its Economic Bulletin on Thursday.  This report could give clues about when the ECB might cut rates. Germany's inflation data is due on Friday.  If inflation is lower than expected, it could strengthen the case for a rate cut. The US Federal Reserve is also considering rate cuts, but they are being cautious. They want to make sure inflation is under control before they start cutting rates. Key points: EUR/USD is weak due to concerns about the European economy. ECB might cut rates soon if inflation falls. US Fed is also considering rate cuts, but they are being cautious. From a technical analysis point of view, combined with upcoming financial news, we believe that Euro will push to the upside to 1.0800 price zone and then reverse down to drop to 1.0650 price zone at a minimum.
Short
by financialflagship
EURUSD: Analyzing Powell's Stance and Strong US GrowthIn today's trading session, we are eyeing a selling opportunity on EURUSD around the 1.08600 zone, as the pair continues to trend downward and is presently in a correction phase approaching the 1.08600 support and resistance area. Adding a fundamental layer to our analysis, Chair Powell's recent stance regarding a potential rate cut in March is a significant signal for the market. His explicit statement that a rate cut is not the Federal Reserve's base case, coupled with a robust payrolls report, strongly reinforces this message. It's noteworthy that Chair Powell, having access to a wealth of information beyond what's available to the markets, deliberately chose to assert the Fed's position against rate cuts, rather than leaving the possibility open. Moreover, in an environment where US economic growth leads the way, it typically bodes well for the Dollar. This assertion aligns with the recent strong performance of the US economy, as evidenced by robust employment data and other economic indicators, further supporting the potential for a strengthening US Dollar against the Euro. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
1
EURUSD 7 Feb 2024 W6 - Intraday Analysis - US Trade BalanceThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. As per yesterday analysis, i was waiting to see at least a bullish CHoCH in order to see a possibility of a Pullback of the 4H Bearish iBOS and the 4H Still Holding. We had formed this Bullish CHoCH yesterday and according to that we formed a fresh demand zone that could have the potential to provide a deeper pullback to the 4H iBOS and maybe the continuation on the 4H Bullish Swing. I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply at the INT High. Lets wait for the LTF to guide us. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Waiting Pullback Phase 2. Swing is Bearish and we are currently in the bearish momentum after the break. Price reached the 4H Swing Low and the Daily INT Low and failed to close below for 2 times now (Just wicked micro pips below it). Could be a sweep of LIQ or just mitigation and continuation bearish. No HTF POI mitigation yet. From a structure prospective, We are expecting a Pullback for the 15m Swing and the 4H INT Structure. I'll wait for the pullback phase after the 15m Bullish iBOS putting in consideration that there is a HP that we can create a Bearish 4H BOS and Daily iBOS. (Shorting the lows or after Break of Structure is not my edge) Lets wait and see more price development. 3. 15m INT Structure is bearish and we are in the continuation after the Swing BOS. Price failed for the 2nd time to break the 4H Swing Low/Daily INT Low yesterday and formed a Bullish CHoCH on the 4H. With that CHoCH we created a 4H Demand (Not the most convincing zone but better than nothing :D) 4H Supply within this INT Structure is the only supply that could provide a Bearish continuation. But be mindful that we could start also the Swing Pullback at anytime.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 6 Feb 2024 W6 - Intraday Analysis - EU Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 6 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback. Price failed to close below the 4H Low which could be a sweep of LIQ. In order to confirm a Sweep, i need at least a Bullish CHoCH as reaction from the Swing Low otherwise we will take the Swing Low as per the HTF expectations. I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply at the INT High. Lets wait for the LTF to guide us. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish Waiting Pullback Phase 2. Swing is Bearish and we are currently in the bearish momentum after the break. Price reached the 4H Swing Low and the Daily INT Low and failed to close below (Just wicked micro pips below it). Could be a sweep of LIQ or just mitigation and continuation bearish. No HTF POI mitigation yet. From a structure prospective, We are expecting a Pullback for the 15m Swing and the 4H INT Structure. I'll wait for the pullback phase after the 15m Bullish iBOS putting in consideration that there is a HP that we can create a Bearish 4H BOS and Daily iBOS. (Shorting the lows or after Break of Structure is not my edge) Lets wait and see more price development. 3. 15m INT Structure is bearish and we are in the continuation after the Swing BOS. 4H Supply within this INT Structure is the only supply that could provide a Bearish continuation. But be mindful that we could start also the Swing Pullback at anytime.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD: Correction Phase Encounters Fed's Hawkish Tone.In today's trading session, our attention is on EURUSD, with a potential selling opportunity around the 1.08800 zone. Technically, EURUSD is in a downtrend, and it's currently undergoing a correction phase, nearing the trend at the 1.08800 support and resistance area. Adding a fundamental layer to our analysis, recent remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have influenced our outlook on the market. Powell's warning, communicated yesterday, has emphasized the Fed's intention to refrain from rate cuts in March. This signal suggests a potentially firmer stance on monetary policy, which could strengthen the US dollar against major currencies like the euro. The ECB's recent focus on data rather than specific dates signals a potential shift in policy stance, suggesting a cautious outlook for the Euro. Economic indicators, including PMIs and GDP tracking for Germany, hint at sluggish growth. Additionally, the ECB's survey data indicates contained inflation expectations and declining plans for wage and price increases among firms. These factors suggest that constraints on the ECB may be easing, potentially leading to a divergence in real interest rate differentials against the Euro in the coming months. Considering this fundamental development, we anticipate that any further upside in EURUSD may be limited, especially around the 1.08800 level, as the market digests Powell's comments and adjusts its expectations regarding the Fed's policy trajectory. Trade safe, Joe.
Short
by JoeChampion
6
EURUSD 1st 1W MACD Bearish Cross in 6 months! Bearish.The EURUSD pair is declining on a rapid pace and this is a good time to update our sell perspective that we shared with you 3 weeks ago (see chart below): This time we transition onto the 1W time-frame in order to gain a more efficient long-term understanding of the trend. The biggest development has been the completion of a 1W MACD Bearish Cross on last week's closing. This is the 1st such formation in 6 months (since the week of August 07 2023) and every time it happened in the past 12 months, the downtrend was extended for at least another 3 weeks. Technically we are on the new Bearish Leg of the 1-year Channel Down, below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), having started with a clear rejection on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Practically, the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), has been the Support since the November 06 2023 candle, having closed all 1W candles above it. Basically since April 2023, it has acted as such on numerous occasions. As a result, our medium-term Target remains 1.06500 and then only a 1W candle close below the 1W MA100 would make us take a new sell and target 1.0500, which is the top of the 2-year Support Zone. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
1
EURUSD 5 Feb 2024 W6 - Intraday Analysis - EU PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 5 Feb 2024 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames: 4H 15m 4H Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bullish INT Bearish OF Bearish In Swing Discount 2. Price made a bullish BOS and after a BOS we expect a pullback. After mitigating the Weekly Supply zone, price started the Swing pullback phase after a bearish CHoCH. Price reached the 4H/Daily demand zones as expected after breaking the range and formed a Bullish INT Structure iBOS. This Bullish iBOS failed to continue Bullish and we changed to Bearish INT Structure which means that the Swing Pullback Phase is not over. We are also within the 4H Swing Demand/Discount so keep in mind that at anytime the Swing Continuation could start. More price development needed with the current PA. 3. Bearish momentum still active with a Bearish iBOS. With the current series of bearish INT Structures, there is a HP that the 4H Swing Low will go as there is no much demand zones and the current demand is in mitigation and every move up is just a sell opportunity. After the iBOS we would expect a pullback and the current CHoCH is the INT High. So either price engineer a new CHoCH or it will target the INT High (i Doubt we have catalyst for that this week). I'll be waiting 15m to align bullish to play the 4H iBOS pullback if possible. Other wise waiting for better Short opportunity from the 4H Supply. Lets wait for the LTF to guide us. 15m Chart Analysis 1. Swing Bearish INT Bearish 2. Swing couldn't sustain Bullish after the Bullish BOS and turned Bearish with NFP news on last Friday. After a BOS we expect a pullback but be mindful that HTF are looking to target the 4H Swing Low and Daily INT Low so there is a HP we will continue down. But for me following the structure and expectations, I'll be looking for the Swing Pullback after a bullish iBOS. And most probably will play the Bearish move when we tap into a HTF POI. 3. 15m INT Structure is bearish and we are in the continuation after the Swing BOS. Price could continue from here bearish to the 4H Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
Sell EURUSD H4 Channel BreakoutEUR/USD Poised for Potential Downtrend as Bullish Channel Breaches Lower Boundary. The EUR/USD pair might be heading south, exhibiting a bearish signal on its H4 chart. A recent breakdown through the lower border of a bullish channel pattern suggests waning upward momentum and a potential shift in trend. Key Points: Bullish Channel Breakout: The price had been confined within an ascending channel, characterized by rising support and resistance lines. However, a recent break below the lower support at 1.0900 indicates a potential shift in momentum towards the downside. Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price near 1.0900, offering an entry point close to the breakout level. Target Levels: Initial bearish targets lie at the support levels of 1.0700 and 1.0585, marking the previous bottoms within the channel. Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above the resistance line of the broken channel at 1.0950 EUR/USD News and Events to Watch Next Week (January 29 - February 2): Federal Reserve (Fed) Meeting and Interest Rate Decision (Jan 31): This is the biggest event of the week. A hawkish Fed stance with another large rate hike (75bps or more) and strong economic projections could significantly strengthen the USD against the EUR. Conversely, dovish hints or smaller rate increases could favor the EUR. US Non-Farm Payrolls (Feb 2): Strong jobs growth could indicate a resilient US economy and support the USD. Conversely, weaker data could dampen hawkish sentiment and benefit the EUR. Always wait for strong Conformation in Short term for entry. 👈👈👈 If you found my post helpful or informative, could you please leave a comment 💬🖌 and hitting that like button💚💚 “Markets are never wrong, but opinions often are.”-Jesse Livermore Good Luck💛💛 Thank you
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
13