EURUSD, BEAR-Wedge Completed, BEAR-Market Ongoing, BEAR Waves!Hello There!
Welcome to my new analysis of EURUSD from several timeframe perspectives, on the current underlying market dynamics, and on what should be expected within the current market. There is a main primary indication, the massively spreading inflation within the EUR that is creating a huge inflation gap between the EUR and USD, and when such an inflation gap develops between two currencies this means the inflation gap in currency pairs in which the inflation is higher compared to the other pair is highly bearishly inclined.
From my chart perspective, this means that EURUSD has been in a continued bear-market since July 2023 forming several lower lows and already completing this gigantic bearish ascending wedge formation with the breakouts towards the downside accelerating the bearish momentum and confirming the 200-EMA as the most prevalent resistance factor. Now EURUSD is already continuing to form the bear flag below the 200-EMA which is simultaneously the wave B within the whole bearish wave-count.
Once the bear-flag formation has been completed in the near future with the inflation gap developments reaching further bearish inclinations this is going to activate the massive wave C acceleration. In this case, the first target will be the at pari level at 1 EURUSD, with a continued bearish momentum the next targets will be under pari at 0.98872 and below this at 0.977. Especially when the bearish momentum accelerates further with further smart money market operators increasing the bearishness the wave is going to continue.
The bearish market wave setup, confirmed by the enormous inflation rate gap, together with the bearish smart money operators to increase the short side open interest is so present that that the upcoming bear market wave will be inevitable. In this case, it will be important for a trader to position on the right side of the markets before all these major disruptions are actually set up. Nonetheless, it will be a highly important dynamic to consider here especially once the EURUSD has reached the target zones.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching my analysis of EURUSD. Support from your side is greatly appreciated.
VP
Eur-usd
EURUSD: 125 pips is waiting for us!Hello dear traders,
Our last EURUSD was profitable, almost the same opportunity here!
Enter after a confirmed breakout below 1.0480
Close 20% of profits around 1.0420
close all between 1.0370 and 1.0350
Levels calculated order_block, regarding support and resistances, channel and pivot points.
EURUSD: High probability sell signal.EURUSD is having a Double Top rejection on the 4H MA50, always within the tight borders of the middle July Channel Down. The 1D technical outlook is bearish (RSI = 32.644, MACD = -0.008, ADX = 39.390) and that's all that matters right now as it sets the bearish pace inside the Channel. Out of a 5 similar rejection sample inside this Channel, four have delivered a new Low. The lowest % decline has been -1.21%. Based on that, we are short-term short, aiming at the S1 level (TP = 1.04875).
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Buy EURUSD H4 Channel FormationEUR/USD - H4 Chart - Channel Pattern Formation
Price Need to break the channel and after retest of Channel only we take buy entry.
if we found pullback in top of Channel, again form bearish mode..
Always wait for strong Conformation in Short term for entry. 👈👈👈
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EURUSD: Now Breaking Down on a Higher TimeframeEURUSD has reversed from the HOP level of a Bearish Alternate Bat after having earlier went beyond the standard PCZ, and now the EURUSD is back below the PCZ and breaking down on a much more significant timeframe both in terms of Price Action and PPO.
I think that things should continue as expected and that it will go for $1.035 and then go for the bigger targets under $1 for the reasons highlighted on the Monthly Chart below:
EURUSD: CURVE ANALYSIS (3D/12H)SLO @ 1.1235 ⏳
TP5 @ 1.1200
TP4 @ 1.1120
TP3 @ 1.0985
TP2 @ 1.0895
TP1 @ 1.0766
BLO1 @ 1.0635 📈
BLO2 @ 1.0550 ⏳
1️⃣ PA is currently pulling back from our BLO1
2️⃣ PA is currently within a Resistance Range (3D)
3️⃣ If it respects the Resistance Range, I'm anticipating PA will continue the DT down to our BLO2 @ 1.0555
EURUSD at the bottom of the Channel Down. Tight buy.EURUSD is inside a Double Channel Down pattern, trading at the moment on the twin bottom.
Being under both the MA50 and MA200 (1h), the price action is identical to the earlier stage of the Channel Down (August 10th-25th).
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price but don't hold if the price crosses under the dotted bottom line.
Targets:
1. 1.07365 which is Resistance (1), like it happened with the August 30th top.
Tips:
1. The MACD (1h) has made a Double Bottom also consistent with the Double Bottom of August 25th. A further buy indication.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Has EURUSD started an uptrend?The EURUSD chart in the weekly time frame seems to show a diametrical pattern, which is currently completing wave (E).
Considering that the wave (E) itself is a diametrical one, probably more time should be passed before the movement of the wave (F) starts.
If the price crosses the resistance of 1.24369, the analysis is no longer valid
EURUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.06150 zone, EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.06150 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD Short-term Buy Signal at the bottom of the Channel.The EURUSD pair is extending the bearish trend firmly within the borders of the 2-month Channel Down hitting in the process last week's target:
As you see, it failed to break above the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) so we didn't pursue Target 2. We are in a similar situation now, with the price again at the bottom of the Channel Down, while the 4H RSI is about to hit the oversold territory (sub 30.00). We take it again as a buy opportunity, targeting the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) at 1.06300. As before, if the price breaks above the 4H MA100, we will re-buy and target 1.07200 (+1.44% rise).
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EUR / USD – HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIESThis is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED WEEKLY with comments and trade ideas.
| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |
In the following analysis, I do NOT highlight any specific scenario but neutrally look at the higher timeframes in the > FX:EURUSD <
We focus on the technical KEY points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming weeks & months.
As soon as candlestick closes emerge that suggest a temporary direction for the price intra-day, I create a separate post below.
This post will be under a similar name, which is as follows: " EUR / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES " (Includes: entries, stop loss & take profit levels)
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MARKED POINTS OF INTENTION (POI)
Looking at the big monthly chart picture, we can see that we are still in a downtrend channel that started in 2008. The market has been moving up since last September to test the upper trend line of the channel. There will most likely be another run-up attempt by the price, which will come after the current bottoming. In the weekly chart - MACD indicator, one can already see a clear "Bearish Divergence", which argues for an HTF sell-off. However, in the 1-day chart, one can sense a further move to the upside, which will extend the bearish divergence more to the extreme in the higher timeframes. At the current moment of analysis, we are on very strong support areas, which could be the bottom for the next move to the upside.
Z - You have to understand the big picture to not drown in the noise of the small one - Z
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EURUSD Decline far from over.The EURUSD pair is extending the decline inside the two month Channel Down and technically it isn't over yet.
The Lower Low leg range is between 2.70% - 2.90%. Starting from the September 12th Lower High, a decline of the -2.70% minimum will land the price directly on Support at 1.04850.
The 1D RSI is almost on the 30.00 oversold level, but we need to see a reversal inside the zone to call for a bottom after such a continuous bearish pattern (Channel Down).
Sell and target 1.04850 (Support A).
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EURUSD: Formed the first Bullish Cross after 3 years.EURUSD has been declining without a stop since July, turning bearish on the 1W timeframe (RSI = 38.075, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 37.003) with the RSI that low for the first time since October 2022.
The most important technical formation though is the 1W Bullish Cross (MA50-100) which is the first time we see it forming after exactly 3 years. A quick look on past 1W Bullish Cross formations in the last 10 years shows that when completed, it was never the top for EURUSD. On the contrary it has been an optimal buy entry. With the exception of February 2018, the pair has always topped above the Fibonacci 0.618 level, which is where it got rejected in July.
To be more precise, the recovery since the late 2022 bottom appears to be more similar to the July 2012 recovery. This gives us more evidence to expect one more rally on EURUSD before it tops for another Bear Cycle.
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EUR/USD: Euro Trims Losses Against US Dollar Post-Fed EventEuro Trims Losses Against US Dollar Post-Fed Event
In the aftermath of the recent Federal Reserve (Fed) event, the Euro (EUR) found itself on a backfoot against the US Dollar (USD), but it managed to regain some ground. Here's a look at the key events and dynamics shaping the EUR/USD currency pair's movement.
Euro in Decline Post-Fed:
The Euro had been facing downward pressure against the US Dollar as the market digested the implications of the Federal Reserve's recent actions. Stocks in Europe opened Thursday's trading session in the red, reflecting a cautious sentiment in the market.
EUR/USD Rebounds:
Despite an early drop to fresh multi-month lows, the Euro managed to stage a modest rebound against the US Dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD pair climbed back above the 1.0650 level during the European trading session on Thursday.
US Dollar Strength Persists:
The US Dollar continued to demonstrate strength, with the USD Index (DXY) reaching new highs. The index approached a six-month high near 105.70, just a few pips away from the year-to-date peak observed on March 8, which was around 105.90.
Fed's Hawkish Stance:
The rebound in the EUR/USD pair coincided with some corrective movements in the short end of the US yield curve, while the belly and long end saw modest gains. This shift in bond yields may have contributed to the Euro's rebound. Following the Fed's meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that there is still a considerable path to cover in reaching the target inflation rate of 2%. The Fed decided to maintain current interest rates, but it remains prepared to raise rates when it deems appropriate.
Key Data and Events Ahead:
In the economic calendar for the eurozone, the preliminary reading of Consumer Confidence, tracked by the European Commission, is scheduled for release. Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to deliver a speech, which could provide insights into the central bank's perspective.
In the United States, the focus will be on the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims data, followed by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the CB Leading Economic Index, and Existing Home Sales. These data points will provide further context for the economic situation in the US.
In summary, the Euro faced early losses against the US Dollar but managed to regain some ground in European trading. The USD's strength persists, with the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance. Key economic data and speeches by central bank officials will be closely monitored for further market direction.
Our preference
Short positions below 1.072 with targets at 1.0610 & 1.0590 in extension.
EURUSD 24/9.23EU oh look another sell side swing range with a rather large space above, oh and liquid gathering above our highs almost as if we have seen this in nearly all our other USD related pairs this Sunday!
In short we are looking for a bearish move due to our range we sit in but of course we aren't expecting a run higher for then a full drop lower as our range is massively oversized. from what we have seen and what we know of these kind of range normally we see the short term price action take over the overall move but until this happens we stick to what we have!
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
EURUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.06900 zone, EURUSD was trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 1.06900 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD: Will it finally break the Channel amidst the Fed?EURUSD is testing the top of the Megaphone pattern on the 1H timeframe. Doing so on overbought technicals (RSI = 75.380, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 41.699) it is likely to see another pullback to the 1H MA50. Since however the Fed announces the Rate Decision in a few minutes, it is possible to see an upward push to finally break over it and to the R1 level (1.07695).
If it does, we don't expect the rise to stop there but on the contrary test the top of the long term Channel Down (TP = 1.0800). Any pull back inside the Megaphone and as long as its bottom holds, is a short term buy opportunity.
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