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EUR/USD Rebounds Despite USD Pressure – Fed Meeting LoomsEUR/USD Rebounds Despite USD Pressure – Fed Meeting Looms The Euro (EUR) has staged a rebound against the US Dollar (USD), pushing EUR/USD past the initial drop near 1.0670 and setting its sights on the 1.0700 resistance level as Tuesday unfolds. The USD continues to face selling pressure, and it's approaching a critical support level around 105.00 as tracked by the USD Index (DXY). This is occurring against the backdrop of rising US yields and caution ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting scheduled for Wednesday. In terms of monetary policy, investors are still digesting the dovish rate hike carried out by the European Central Bank (ECB) last week. Additionally, they maintain their expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, likely in the second quarter of 2024. In the Eurozone's data landscape, the Current Account surplus contracted to €20.9 billion in July after seasonal adjustments, while final inflation figures for August are also anticipated later in the European morning. Turning to the US, the housing sector takes the spotlight with the release of Housing Starts and Building Permits data for August. EUR/USD saw a resurgence in the latter part of Monday's trading session, closing positively. However, early on Tuesday, the pair struggled to maintain its upward momentum, consolidating around the 1.0700 mark. Following an initial bearish start, Wall Street's primary indices rebounded during the US session, creating challenges for the US Dollar (USD) to maintain its strength against other currencies. In the early European session, US stock index futures were trading slightly higher. If US stocks continue to rise after the opening bell, the USD might face difficulty finding demand, potentially allowing EUR/USD to remain stable. Furthermore, comments from European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau indicated their intent to keep the deposit facility rate at 4% "for a sufficiently long time." Additionally, policymaker Peter Kazimir mentioned, "I wish that the September rate hike was the last but I can't rule out further rate increases" on Monday. Alongside an improving risk sentiment, these somewhat hawkish comments appear to be supporting EUR/USD in the early part of the week. Later today, the US economic calendar will feature August Building Permits and Housing Starts figures. However, in the lead-up to the Federal Reserve's policy announcements on Wednesday, investors might not attach significant weight to this data. Our preference Short positions below 1.0735 with targets at 1.0655 & 1.06250 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
EURUSD Buy as long as this Flag stays intact.The EURUSD pair has been bearish since July inside a Channel Down pattern. Currently it is inside a Flag pattern. Every time it broke its bottom (downwards) the Channel Down extended to a Lower Low. When it didn't, the Flag pushed the price upwards to a Channel Down Lower High on the MA150 (4h). Trading Plan: 1. Buy if the Flag holds its bottom. 2. Sell if it breaks. Targets: 1. 1.07800 (MA150 4h). 2. 1.06000 (1.618 Fibonacci extension). Tips: 1. The Channel Down hasn't had a Lower High since August 30th. If there is any symmetry to it, we should see a new this week. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
by TradingBrokersView
1
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Recovery Below 1.0700 as Markets Await..EUR/USD Price Analysis: Recovery Below 1.0700 as Markets Await Fed Meeting The EUR/USD pair is showing signs of recovery, trading near the 1.0670 level during the early European trading hours on Monday. However, the upside for this major currency pair appears to be limited as investors shift their focus to the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. In recent weeks, the EUR/USD pair experienced losses, but it now seems to be stabilizing as traders brace for the Fed's monetary policy decision. The market's anticipation of this event has played a significant role in influencing the pair's recent movements. Notably, key economic data from the United States has indicated healthy economic conditions over the past week. This data has led some analysts and investors to believe that the Fed may consider one more interest rate hike by the end of 2023. However, the market sentiment currently leans toward the Fed skipping a rate hike in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike at the November meeting have also declined to 27%. The upcoming Fed meeting will be closely watched by market participants, and any hints or guidance provided by the central bank could lead to significant movements in the EUR/USD pair. Traders will be looking for clues about the Fed's stance on interest rates, inflation, and the overall economic outlook. In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair is in a recovery phase but faces limitations in its upside potential as the market eagerly awaits the Fed's decision. The dynamics of this major currency pair will likely be shaped by the outcome of the Fed meeting and the central bank's guidance on future monetary policy. As such, traders and investors will be keeping a close eye on this event as it unfolds later in the week. Our preference Short positions below 1.07350 with targets at 1.0625 & 1.0600 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
7
EURUSD Buy signals but follow the break-outs.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the July 27 High. So far it has only made two Lower Highs touching its top and we may be starting the sequence that might complete the 3rd. On the short-term we expect the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) to be tested and the target on our current buy is 1.0700. That is still below the Inner Lower Highs trend-line, similar to August's decline. Beyond that, we will take a 2nd buy only if the price breaks above the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), in which case, we will target the top of the Channel Down and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) at 1.08000 (+1.65% bullish extension). Note that the 4H MACD is close to completing a Bullish Cross. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
8
EUR/USD Faces Downside Pressure as USD Strengthens Amid ECB andEUR/USD Faces Downside Pressure as USD Strengthens Amid ECB and US Data The EUR/USD pair struggled to sustain its recovery as it faced resistance following comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Friday's rebound encountered downward pressure as the US Dollar (USD) maintained its strength, pushing the broad dollar index higher. ECB's Dovish Rate Hike Stifles Euro The European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets with a dovish rate decision, raising its benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the overnight deposit rate to 4%. However, despite the rate hike, the Euro (EUR) faced a slump as the ECB effectively signaled the end of the current rate hike cycle without explicitly stating it. ECB President Christine Lagarde's remarks added to the Euro's woes, as she indicated that the ECB was now focused on determining how long rates should remain at current levels rather than how much they should change. This shift in tone eroded expectations of further rate hikes from the ECB, and investors are now anticipating the possibility of the European Union's central bank cutting rates in March of the next year. On the US side, the economic calendar provided support for the Greenback (USD) as US data continued to outperform expectations. US retail sales figures for August exceeded forecasts, registering a 0.6% increase compared to the anticipated 0.2%. This figure also marked an improvement over the upwardly revised previous reading of 0.5%. The US economy appears robust and resilient, dispelling concerns of an impending recession. The recent narrative of a "soft landing" in the US economy, which had been weighing on the markets, now seems to be fading as the US consumer segment shows strength. EU Inflation and US FOMC in Focus for the Coming Week The upcoming week holds key events for both the European Union and the United States. On Tuesday, EU inflation figures, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (CPI) for August, are set to be released. Forecasts suggest that the CPI will remain in line with the previous period. The last reported pan-European inflation rate stood at 0.3%, and investors expect a similar reading this time. Lingering concerns about inflation make any significant beat on the headline figure a potential trigger for risk aversion. Meanwhile, in the US, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve (Fed) once again, with the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee widely expected to keep the US benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.5%. However, inflation concerns are still prevalent in the markets, keeping investors on edge about the possibility of further rate hikes by year-end. Thursday will also bring US jobless claims data, and Friday will feature preliminary EU manufacturing and services Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMI), followed by their US counterparts later in the day. These data releases will likely influence market sentiment and trading decisions in the week ahead. Following a retracement within the 38.2% and 50% range, we are anticipating the emergence of a fresh bearish movement.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
EURUSD Reached the May 31st Low. Double Bottom??The EURUSD pair hit the 1.06350 Support A, which is the Low of May 31st. Today that was followed with a minor rise, so as long as it holds, that's a Double Bottom and a buy signal. Buy and target the Channel Down's top at 1.07450. If the price crosses over 1.07855 (Fibonacci 0.236), buy again and target 1.08550. If on the contrary we get a 1day candle closing under Support A (1.06350), sell and target 1.04850 (-2.70% decline). Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
by TheCryptagon
1
EURUSD: Oversold RSI at the bottom of the Channel Down.EURUSD reached the bottom of the six week Channel Down, completed a -2.70% decline such as the previous one and turned the 1H RSI extremly oversold (RSI = 17.487, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 31.778). This is a low risk chance to take a short term buy to the top of the Channel Down. Our target is, as with the previous rebound, the 0.618 Fibonacci level (TP = 1.08250). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
2
EURUSD Wyckoff PatternEURUSD Wyckoff Pattern EURUSD - H1 Chart - Wyckoff Pattern in Accumulation Phase 1. Preliminary Support (PS) Preliminary Support or PS is a support level that forms after a significant fall in market prices. It’s caused by Big Institutional Players and Smart money traders, when they try to acquire bullish positions after a strong selloff. In the image, you can notice that after a Sharp fall, the price action bounced back and moved sideways – That’s the example of Preliminary Support Once a Preliminary Support is established, Market will find it very hard to break that support level because of Strong buying interest. 2. Selling Climax (SC) Selling Climax is another pattern in Accumulation phase characterized by sharp selloff. It takes place before the Preliminary Support or PS. It indicates that selling pressure has reached a stage in which panic selling by the public will be absorbed by Big Institutional players or Smart money traders. Selling Climax often coincides with bad news or some negative events, as it is caused by the panic selling behavior of public Investors. Big players often use the Selling Climax to acquire positions at lower price. In the Image, you can see the example of Selling Climax Pattern. The bounce back in market prices followed by Selling climax reflects the buying interest of Big Players. 3. Automatic Rally (AR) Automatic Rally is an up move that forms after the Selling Climax in the Accumulation phase. The underlying buying interest cause the prices to rally higher, but quickly prices will fall back after making a new high. The highest point of this rally will become the Resistance of the Accumulation range. You can see the example of Automatic Rally or AR in the Image. After an Automatic Rally, Intense selling activity from the Public decreases and bearish sentiment becomes weaker. 4. Secondary Test (ST) The Secondary Test formation happens after an Automatic Rally. It’s caused by the long covering process of Public Investors, which brings the price back to the area of Preliminary Support. Often prices will bounce back after touching the Preliminary Support indicating the presence of Buying Interest. Secondary Test is a reflection that market prices have found the bottom. It is common to have Multiple Secondary Tests, as the market will retest the Preliminary Support to check the strength of Buyers. In the Image, you can see the examples of Secondary test. 5. Springs Springs are nothing but shakeouts that happens within the Accumulation phase. The prices will fall below the Preliminary Support of the trading range only to reverse back above the trading range within a short time period. (Often referred as False Breakout) Thank you
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
31
EURUSD On the 1W MA50 after 8 red weeks. Strong rebound ahead?The EURUSD pair got last week the closest to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) it has been since the January 02 2023 1W candle, practically the start of the year. The 1W MA50 has been the long-term Support of the bullish trend since the pair broke above it on the week of December 05 2022. Testing it after that long can provide a technical rebound, especially considering the fact that last week the trend completed eight (8) straight red 1W candles. To put things into a more detailed context, the price action of the past 12 months is similar to the one that preceded the March 29 2021 1W MA50 test. Both lasted on a similar date range (50 weeks/ 350 days and 54 weeks/ 378 days respectively) from the bottom to the 1W MA50 test and the 1W RSI on both dropped from 70.00 to 42.50. The 2021 rebound marginally broke the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before getting rejected on a Lower Highs trend-line to the 2021 - 2022 Bear Cycle. As a result, it is worth attempting a medium-term buy, as long as the 1W candle closes above the 1W MA50 and target the 0.786 Fibonacci level, which on this occasion is at 1.11500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
3
EUR/USD Struggles Amidst Dollar Rebound and ECB UncertaintyEUR/USD Struggles Amidst Dollar Rebound and ECB Uncertainty Introduction The EUR/USD pair is facing a challenging road ahead as it attempts to recover from recent lows. Despite an overnight rally that pushed it to a four-day high, the pair is grappling with a mild negative bias during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. Spot prices are currently hovering below the mid-1.0730s, with the specter of a three-month low reached last week still haunting the market. Dollar Stabilization and Fed Influence The US Dollar (USD) is a significant factor in the current EUR/USD dynamics. After a sharp fall on Monday, the greenback has paused its retracement slide from the highest level since March. This stabilization in the USD is acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. The main driver behind this dollar strength is the prospects for further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed's willingness to raise interest rates is supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which, coupled with a cautious market sentiment, provides some support to the safe-haven Greenback. Market sentiment regarding the Fed's actions remains mixed, with expectations of one more 25 basis point rate hike by the end of the year. The upbeat US macroeconomic data released last week suggests a resilient economy, allowing the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. However, concerns about the economic headwinds stemming from rising borrowing costs continue to suppress optimism in equity markets, adding to the USD's allure. ECB Uncertainty Weighs on the Euro Conversely, the Euro (EUR) faces uncertainty surrounding the European Central Bank's (ECB) future rate-hike trajectory. Market participants are divided on whether the ECB will continue its historic policy-tightening cycle by hiking interest rates for a tenth consecutive time, given persistently high inflation, or pause due to a dimming economic outlook in the Euro Zone. This uncertainty serves as a cap on the upside potential for the EUR/USD pair, at least for the time being. Upcoming Catalysts Traders are eagerly awaiting the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment data during the European session, which could provide some direction for the EUR/USD pair. However, the primary focus is on the upcoming events that will likely shape the pair's near-term trajectory. These include the release of crucial US consumer inflation figures on Wednesday and the highly anticipated ECB meeting on Thursday. The outcome of these events will have a substantial impact on market sentiment and the direction of the EUR/USD pair. Conclusion The EUR/USD pair is navigating through a complex landscape marked by a stabilizing US Dollar, uncertainty regarding the ECB's rate-hike path, and upcoming economic data releases and central bank meetings. As traders await these critical events, caution prevails, and aggressive directional bets are approached with care. The EUR/USD's journey ahead hinges on the interplay of these factors, making it an interesting pair to watch in the coming days. Our preference Below 1.0770 with target at1.0680 and 1.0650 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD: Navigating Currency Markets Amidst Dollar WeaknessEUR/USD: Navigating Currency Markets Amidst Dollar Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair has been making headlines as it posts a modest gain, hovering around 1.0725, signaling a shift in the forex market dynamics. This move comes amidst several key developments that are influencing the pair's direction, including statements from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, anticipation of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, and the impending release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Yellen's Optimistic Outlook on Inflation and Employment US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's recent comments have drawn attention. She expressed confidence that the United States can successfully manage inflation without causing significant disruptions to the labor market. Yellen pointed out that inflationary pressures are receding, and there has been no alarming surge in layoffs. This outlook has provided some support to the US Dollar, although the impact on the currency market has been limited. Market Expectations and Interest Rates Looking ahead, the market is closely monitoring the ECB's policy meeting, scheduled for Thursday. Analysts widely anticipate that the ECB will maintain its current interest rates, given the recent economic data. In particular, the German Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) for August aligned with market expectations at 6.4% year-on-year, and the Eurozone's GDP growth in the second quarter remained modest at 0.1%. These numbers suggest that the ECB may adopt a cautious approach to avoid upsetting the fragile economic recovery. US Inflation Data and Forex Market Impact Wednesday's release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August is a critical event on traders' calendars. Market consensus points to a 0.5% increase in the monthly figure, with the core CPI expected to remain stable at 0.2%. Any significant deviation from these expectations could trigger substantial movements in the EUR/USD pair, potentially affecting traders' sentiment regarding the future of the US Dollar. Federal Reserve's Mixed Messages The Federal Reserve's statements have added an element of uncertainty to the US Dollar's trajectory. While Fed Governor Christopher Waller has suggested that there is room for interest rate hikes, he emphasized that data will ultimately dictate their decisions. Fed Boston President Susan Collins has also expressed concerns about adopting a prematurely restrictive monetary policy stance, advocating for a patient and deliberate approach. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee's vision of a "golden path" underscores the central bank's desire to navigate the economy toward lower inflation without triggering a recession. This nuanced approach from the Fed further complicates the forex market's outlook. Conclusion The EUR/USD pair's recent modest gain around 1.0725 reflects the complex interplay of factors influencing the forex market. While Yellen's optimism about inflation and employment has provided some support to the US Dollar, the ECB's anticipated interest rate decision and the US CPI release could be the catalysts for more significant movements in the pair. Additionally, mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials have added uncertainty to the US Dollar's path. Traders must remain vigilant and prepared for potential market volatility in the coming days as these events unfold, shaping the direction of the EUR/USD pair. Our preference Below 1.0770 with target at1.0680 and 1.0650 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
5