EURUSD, higher to lower time frame breakdownGreetings, traders! Welcome to this EURUSD market analysis, where we focus on identifying higher-probability trading opportunities.
In this video, I start by analyzing the yearly down to the daily charts, highlighting key trading zones, and discussing the confirmations we look for to optimize our swing entries.
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Trade safely
Eur-usd
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could drop to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 1.0604
1st Support: 1.0452
1st Resistance: 1.0705
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.05100 zone, EURUSD was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 1.05100 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD Today's 1D Death Cross turning into a 3 month rally!The EURUSD pair is having a strong bullish reversal after marginally breaking on Friday below the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Down. The 1W RSI got marginally oversold (below 30.00), which is a technical buy level.
So far it is similar to the October 03 2023 bottom, which was formed on a 1D Death Cross, exactly the kind of pattern that is being completed today! That bottom initiated a strong 3-month rally that hit the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Our long-term Target is 1.08765 (Fib 0.618).
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Bearish drop off pullback resistance?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0519
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 38.2% and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracememnt.
Stop loss: 1.0959
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.0337
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
I'M BACK | EUR/USD
Good evening and/or good morning to everyone! 🌅🌙 It all depends on when you read this article. I know what you're already thinking... "What happened to the articles?" Well, that's not for me to answer! 😅
What I predicted has indeed come true, but as I mentioned earlier, it’s out of my hands. That said, let’s cut to the chase.
First of all, I need your support! 🙌 Leave a boost, hit follow , and drop a comment to help me continue publishing. Now, let’s dive into our analysis. 🧐
EUR/USD: What’s happening? 💱
Well, my friend, Trump’s election has made its mark, and I think the results are clear to everyone. But be careful! 🤔 Do you really think it’s us who are losing? No, my friend! The recession will happen, but it won’t be for the euro—it will hit the dollar. 💸
Give things time to unfold, and remember this article... and your loyal friend, PipGuard. 😉 Don’t let yourself be fooled by the price! Doing this job requires an analytical mind, but it’s even more crucial to stop asking "why" for every market move. Trust me, that’s my golden rule! 😊
Technical Analysis: What can we expect?
📉 The EUR/USD price is in a sharp downtrend. However, we can expect:
1️⃣ A correction in the short term.
2️⃣ A potential reversal in the medium/long term.
The study you see here was conducted on a weekly and 24-hour chart to give you a clear price direction and highlight key levels of interest. 🗺️
Current situation:
- The price is trading below the bullish resistance at 1.05300. 🚧
As long as the price remains below this level, the trend stays bearish.
👉 Important note: If the price doesn’t fully close (with the entire candle body) above this resistance, it will act as a support for bearish traders. I’ve clarified this to help you avoid confusion! 😉
- We also observe that the price reacted to the bearish resistance , now acting as a bullish support , located at 1.03880.
At this level, the price generated a spike but didn’t close fully, which confirms the strength of this area. 💪
Order Block and next moves:
- The price has touched but hasn’t yet mitigated our bullish order block (OB), which ranges from 1.03200 to 1.02500.
Within this range, we can look for a bullish impulse. 🚀
This move could happen:
- At the liquidity grab around 1.02900.
- Or upon touching the support/bearish level at 1.02515.
If, instead, the price continues to drop after a correction, don’t worry! 💡 Your friend PipGuard has you covered for this scenario too.
We have a weekly Fibonacci retracement ranging from 1.02100 to 0.99730, with significant liquidity between 1.01610 and 1.00890. 📊
I hope this analysis has been helpful to you! 😊
Once again, I ask you to support me with a boost, a comment , and a follow so you don’t miss future updates.
Wishing you good luck and a fantastic day/evening! ☀️🌙
Best regards,
PipGuard. 💼
EUR/USD: Euro Weakens as the US Dollar Gains StrengthEUR/USD: Euro Weakens as the US Dollar Gains Strength
The EUR/USD pair continued to decline last week, losing 2.8%. This marks another week of euro weakness, driven by poor economic data from the eurozone and strong US indicators that underscore the resilience of the American economy and reduce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Strong US Data Bolsters the Dollar
Key economic data from the US reinforced the dollar’s strength, reflecting the underlying robustness of its economy:
- Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): Reported at 213K, outperforming the 220K forecast, indicating a stable US labor market.
- S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Came in at 57.0, significantly above the 55.2 expectation, highlighting strong activity in the US services sector.
These figures diminish the likelihood of imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, maintaining the dollar’s attractiveness to investors.
Weak Eurozone Data Pressures the Euro
On the other hand, disappointing data from the eurozone added considerable pressure on the euro:
- HCOB Composite PMI Flash (Nov.): Dropped to 48.1 (below the 50 threshold indicating contraction), missing the forecast of 50.
- HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash (Nov.): Fell to 45.2, underperforming the expected 46.
- HCOB Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Declined to 49.2, well below the 51.6 forecast.
The eurozone’s sluggish growth, coupled with inflation stabilizing around 2%, makes a strong case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to accelerate rate cuts. With eurozone rates at 3.4% compared to 4.75% in the US, the dollar’s yield advantage makes it more appealing to investors.
Policy Divergence and Trade Risks
The divergence in monetary policy between the US and the eurozone is a significant driver of EUR/USD’s weakness. While the ECB seems poised to continue cutting rates, the Federal Reserve may slow its actions or even pause. Further boosting the dollar is the potential for future President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods, which could strengthen the US economy and delay rate cuts.
Seasonality: A Possible Lifeline for EUR/USD
Despite the euro’s bearish outlook, seasonality could offer some support to EUR/USD. Historically, December has often been a favorable month for the pair, which might provide temporary relief for the euro in the coming weeks.
Conclusion
EUR/USD remains under significant pressure due to weak eurozone data, monetary policy divergence, and the dollar’s relative strength. Unless there’s a major shift in economic dynamics or central bank decisions, the euro is likely to stay on the defensive.
Will seasonal trends be enough to support the euro, or will the downward trajectory continue? Share your thoughts in the comments!
EURUSD Potential Continuation Of The Bearish MomentumHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.05100 area, EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.05100 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot which lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.0548
1st Support: 1.0496
1st Resistance: 1.0602
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish drop?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0550
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0598
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 1.0496
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURUSD: Long term bottom formation. Target 1.09250.EURUSD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 32.566, MACD = -0.011, ADX = 28.963) as despite the consolidation since last Thursday, it hasn't yet started to recover. This is however a common price action during bottom formation proccesses (like September and March 2023) and since the 1D RSI is on a bullish divergence (HL), we expect a rally to start soon. In the past rebounds that stopped initially on the HH trendline but for slightly lower risk we are targeting the November 5th High (TP = 1.09250), which started the recent selling.
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EURUSD Breakout And Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.06200 zone, EURUSD was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 1.06200 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD strong buy signal if the 4hour MA50 breaks.EURUSD has started trading inside a Channel Up pattern, approaching the 4hour MA50 with its 4hour RSI on the rise.
This is identical to the pattern of late October both on price and RSI terms.
When that pattern finally closed a candle over the 4hour MA50, the price was catapulted to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (but remained under the 4hour MA200).
As a result, go long if the 4hour MA50 gets crossed and target 1.07550 (Fib 1.618).
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Potential bullish bounce?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 1.0578
1st Support: 1.0532
1st Resistance: 1.0637
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD Bottom made. Now rally until end of year.The EURUSD pair eventually fulfilled all of our bearish signals since the September top, with the most recent one (November 11, see chart below) successfully hitting our 1.05300 Target:
We are now shifting to a long-term bullish sentiment after a long time, as the price finally reached the 1.05185 - 1.04500 Support Zone, which is holding for almost 2 years (since early January 2023).
The 1W RSI is virtually identical to the July - September 2023 Bearish Leg, on which we based all of our sell signals, as it was identified from early on that the similarities between the two were strong (1D chart).
Now that the 1.236 Fibonacci extension got hit, we expect the bullish reversal to reach at least the 0.5 Fibonacci level, as it happened on November 20 2023. As a result, our Target is currently 1.09400.
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Falling towards pullback support?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.0463
1st Support: 1.0325
1st Resistance: 1.0600
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD 17/11/24As we head into this week, we maintain a bearish bias on the EUR/USD pair. This aligns with last month’s trend, where we consistently sold this pair to the downside. Without a shift in bias, we expect this bearish momentum to continue.
Looking at the chart, we’ve identified two key areas of interest for potential selling opportunities. First, there’s a short-term high located around the middle of the current range. This is also a 4-hour high that swept previous short-term highs. Above this, we see an area of unmitigated supply that triggered the last major break of structure, along with a liquidity high just above it. If the price pulls back, it could interact with this supply zone and possibly take out the liquidity highs.
However, this pullback would be a counter-trend move. Our primary expectation remains for the price to continue its downward trajectory toward the lows. Last week, the price swept a daily low, highlighted by an arrow on the left-hand side of the screen. This sweep led to a notable upward push, which, while counter-trend, could serve as the catalyst for the pullback we anticipate.
The market open will be interesting to watch. If the price gaps upward, it could indicate an intent to move higher before potentially filling the gap later in the week. This would align with the bearish continuation we’ve forecasted.
Trade safe and stick to your plan.
EURUSD broke 13 month Low! Strong long term buy signal.EURUSD hit yesterday 1.0500, a price we last saw 13 months ago on October 13th 2023.
That is the bottom of the Rectangle pattern and it is technically a rare buy opportunity.
Additionally, it appears to be repeating the bearish wave of July - September 2023, which bottomed on step 4 and rebounded above the 0.618 Fibonacci extension.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.09235 (Fibonacci 0.618).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is on a Rising Support, thus a Bullish Divergence. That is an additional buy signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Potential bullish rise?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has reacted off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.0524
1st Support: 1.0461
1st Resistance: 1.0600
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSD: Showing no signs of stopping before 1.04000.EURUSD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 32.891, MACD = -0.007, ADX = 29.222), which is a sign of a potential slowdown on the October sell-off but not of stopping. We believe that as the price is approaching the bottom LL of the Channel Down, it will slow down in an attempt to form sideways a bottom as during the weeks of September 25th - October 16th 2023. The ideal entry will be with the 1W RSI as close to being oversold (30.000) as possible and symmetric 1W MACD shows it can happen by December 9th. That means that we can continue shorting the pair, targeting the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 1.04000), which is where the bottom was priced on October 2nd 2023.
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Euro can little grow more and then continue to decline nextHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price some time ago started to trades inside the wedge, where it at once broke the 1.0790 level, which coincided with the seller zone but soon backed up to this area. Then the price continued to move up and later rose to 1.0840 points, but then EUR made a correction to support line of wedge. Then price turned around and started to grow to a resistance line of a wedge pattern and even made a gap, after which it exited from the wedge and turned around. Then prices made a downward impulse inside the triangle to the resistance area, breaking the 1.0790 level. After this movement, the EUR turned around and in a short time rose to the seller zone, after which turned around and dropped back. Also recently, the price broke the 1.0680 level and now it trades very close to the support line of the triangle pattern. In my opinion, the price can make move up to the resistance area and then continue to decline, even exiting from the triangle pattern. Therefore I set my TP at 1.0600 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD The sell-off isn't over yet.The EURUSD pair is extending the sharp sell-off after the most recent bearish signal upon the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) rejection. This is practically the same sideways Zones we talked about almost a month ago (October 14, see chart below):
The price broke below the 1-year Higher Lows trend-line that was the last 'hope' for a bullish reversal and should now extend the bearish trend even lower. The 1D MA100 rejection was also a rejection on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and as you can see this is identical to the August 31 2023 rejection. That was half-way through a Channel Down (also starting from the Resistance Zone) that eventually targeted the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we remain bearish on this pair, targeting 1.05300 (Fib 1.236 extension), unless the 1D RSI hits 25.00 (oversold), in which case take profit regardless, as this RSI reading preceded the October 03 2023 bottom.
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