R2F Weekly Analysis - 1st June 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. Without any prior preparations on the chart, I'm going to go through various pairs, and giving a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends before the new week. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what i'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
If you are lazy to watch the video, which is your loss as you will miss how I analyse the market:
We are at a new month, the month of June. I am still monitoring how the DXY acts this month to validate the monthly SIBI I've been talking about to turn into an iFVG. However, on the lower timeframes it looks very much like lower prices are in the making, which would be bullish for XXXUSD pairs and vice versa for USDXXX pairs.
- R2F
EUR
EURNZD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURNZD for a selling opportunity around 1.76900 zone, EURNZD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.76900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EUR/USD possible short scenario(5/31/2024)We've detected an impulse pattern for EUR/USD.
for confirmation, we need to see the price breaks below the correction line(red line).
Our technical view has been shown in the chart.
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Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
HelenP. I Euro can correct to support level and continue to riseHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. If we look at the chart we can see how the price some time traded near support 2, which coincided with the support zone and then rebounded down to the trend line. After this movement, the Euro turned around and in a short time rose from the trend line to support 2, broke this level and made retest. Then the price made movement up, after which made a correction to support 2 and then continued to grow. Euro reached support 1, which coincided with the resistance zone, broke this level and some time traded higher even the resistance zone. Later EUR fell to the trend line, which rebounded and backed up at once, but soon it turned around and made an impulse down, thereby breaking support 1 with the trend line too. After this move, the price turned around and in a short time rose to the resistance zone, breaking support 1 one more time, and just now it continues to trades in the resistance area. For this case, I expect that EURUSD will make the little move down to the support level and then rebound up to the trend line. Then, the price can break this line and continue to grow, therefore I set my goal at 1.0915 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 10 - EURJPY - (31st May 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing EURJPY, starting from the 6-Month chart.
- R2F
EURUSD - SMALL CORRECTION BEFORE THE ROCKET?A closer look at the Euro chart reveals a favorable structure.
On a broader scale, the trajectory looks bullish - however, a noticeable accumulation of liquidity is occurring lower after the reversal of the global downward movement.
In addition, there was an unfilled zone for the month of FVG.
At the local level, after the breakdown, an imbalance zone - FVG - appeared, which increases the chances of a downward movement.
Moreover, after the FVG imbalance was filled, a strong reaction began and “OB” was formed, this gives us an understanding of the reaction and confirmation of the idea.
Sell EURUSD H4 Channel Breakout & Order BlockThe EUR/USD pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0820, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0620
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.0900. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Opportunity Breakdown :
1. Bullish Channel Breakout & Retest
2. Price Reversal @ Fibo - 0.786
Market Factors:
Dovish ECB vs Hawkish Fed: The European Central Bank (ECB) is generally expected to maintain a dovish stance on interest rates, while the Federal Reserve might continue raising rates to combat inflation. This interest rate differential could weaken the EUR relative to the USD.
Weak Eurozone Data: Recent economic data releases from the Eurozone might have painted a weaker picture of the region's economic health, potentially undermining confidence in the Euro.
Thank you.
Sell EURUSD Channel BreakoutThe EUR/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined channel pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0850, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0819
2nd Support – 1.0805
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.0885 This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
Thank you.
Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/USD is rising towards a resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.08524
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.08838
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.08041
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bullish rise?EUR/JPY has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 169.40
1st Support: 167.40
1st Resistance: 171.57
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week Key factors for EUR/GBP trade next week
With a European Central Bank (ECB) decision due next week, a trade in the GBP/EUR could be of interest. Presently, the EUR/GBP is trading at the lowest rate since August of 2022.
The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Bank of England (BOE) is what could be driving this weakness in the EUR. E ECB President Christine Lagarde has recently expressed confidence that Eurozone inflation is under control, hinting at a possible interest rate cut next month. The same level of dovishness is not yet seen in the language of the BOE officials.
Additionally, the GBP/EUR pair could be influenced by changes in the U.S. dollar. The pound typically exhibits greater sensitivity to shifts in risk sentiment compared to the euro. A softening U.S. dollar, potentially stemming from upcoming U.S. jobs data, might further strengthen the pound against the euro. Intraday bias for the GBP/EUR pair remains neutral, with potential for more consolidations.
Across the week, we get the US JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Employment Change, and the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Last month’s NFP reported 175,000 jobs added in April 2024, down from 315,000 jobs added in March, and falling well short of expectations for 240,000. This month's forecast is for even fewer, at 150,000 jobs.
Bear in mind, any surprising strength in U.S. job data or a more hawkish tone from the BOE could lead to different trading dynamics.
EURUSD (Still in the same Range)EURUSD Techncial analyse
The price reached the price we mentioned in the previous idea, it was the upper of the channel.
Now, after touching the support line the price rebounded and will continue the bullish trend toward 1.08800 and then should break that to get 1.0917 and 1.09575
stability under 1.0796 means will start a bearish trend toward 1.0707,
Pivot Price: 1.0850
Resistance Levels: 1.0880, 1.0917, 1.0992
Support Levels: 1.0796, 1.0707, 1.0650
The price is expected to oscillate between the support at 1.0796 and the resistance at 1.0917.
previous idea:
EURUSD TURTLE SOUP SETUP SHORT - BEFORE INTEREST RATE CUTHi. I am bearish on EURUSD now as it reached the price I was interested to open short.
Interest Rate cut for EUR is coming in June, the dollar should start reversing around now.
CFTC reported recently more commercial shorts compared to longs (attached).
Stop loss on chart.
Target 1: 1.081
Final target on retest of flip zone.
Potential bullish rise?EUR/GBP has just bounced off the support level which is a pullback support and could potentially rise to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8501
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 0.8456
Why we like it:
There is a support level which lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 0.8530
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bullish bounce off 38.2% Fibonacci support?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is currently at the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.0793
1st Support: 1.0742
1st Resistance: 1.0842
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EUR/USD Faces Pressure Amid USD Strength and Hawkish Fed CommentDuring Wednesday's London session, EUR/USD extended its losses, approaching 1.08370. The pair faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amidst rising risk aversion sentiment. This shift in market sentiment is possibly triggered by hawkish remarks from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who suggested that further rate hikes remain a possibility. Kashkari's comments highlighted uncertainties about the disinflationary process, predicting only two rate cuts, which contributed to the USD's strength.
From a technical perspective, as observed in previous analyses, the price rebounded from the 78.6% Fibonacci level. This rebound occurred in confluence with a well-identified supply zone, confirming our earlier forecasts. The price action suggests the potential formation of a double top pattern in this area, indicating a significant resistance level. The initial bearish impulse from this region supports the likelihood of further downside movement.
The recent price behavior and technical indicators suggest that EUR/USD may continue its downward trajectory. The formation of the double top pattern, characterized by the two peaks at the supply zone, often signals a trend reversal. Traders should monitor this area closely, as a confirmed double top could lead to a more pronounced bearish move.
In addition to the technical factors, the broader macroeconomic environment continues to influence EUR/USD dynamics. The strengthening USD, driven by hawkish Fed rhetoric and ongoing economic uncertainties, poses additional challenges for the Euro. Market participants will likely remain cautious, closely watching upcoming economic data releases and central bank communications for further guidance.
Overall, the combination of technical and fundamental factors suggests a cautious outlook for EUR/USD. The current price action, marked by the rebound from the 78.6% Fibonacci level and potential double top formation, aligns with our bearish forecast. Traders should consider these insights when making their trading decisions, remaining vigilant for any shifts in market sentiment or key economic indicators that could impact the pair's direction.
EURUSD: ZONES and CHANNELS Hello traders:
This is intraday analysis for EURUSD:
The mid-term channel is bullish and we are around a good place to see pressure of buyers.
On the other hand, the bullish short-term channel is broken but we are far enough from it.
I'm searching for longing the pair around the current zone 1.0845. my first tp could be around 1.08550 and the final TP is 1.08650.
the 1.08650 zone is perfect for short trading if it coincide with the middle mid-term channel.