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Eur_usd

Long-term technical view of EUR/USDHere's a chart that I find really interesting. I only now realized that the failure below $1.17 three weeks ago shows up at a pullback on a historical trend line that the euro break back in January. I would like to wait for the FOMC statement this week and see if this chart can help continue justifying a long-term bearish bias on EURUSD. Right now, I see an upside risk ahead of the FOMC statement given that speculative shorts in futures markets have been rising in recent days. I wouldn't be surprised to see traders cut some of these positions if the Fed does raise rates.
by ABRAK75
EUR/USD NEARS MAIN SUPPORT AREA AFTER US GDP SURPRISERevised US GDP figures turned out to be a lot more bullish than analysts had expected. The economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.7% in the second quarter, much stronger than the 3.2% rate markets were expecting, instead of the originally estimated 2.3%. Thus, GDP is now estimated to have grown by an average 2.15% during the first half of the year, even after the dismal 0.6% first quarter expansion, which is on par with the post-recession trend. The market reaction was straightforward: dollar was boosted against major counterparts. EUR/USD slid below 1.1250 and is now heading for the main support cluster 1.1155-1.1200. The test of this zone will determine the prevailing trend in this pair. Listed below are links to GBP/USD and EUR/JPY ideas.
by Nickonomics
$1.14 is the level to watch at the start of next weekI didn't really expect the euro to rise so sharply this week, but the unexpected events that caused a significant risk aversion move in markets starting with Tsipras's resignation Thursday led to an unwinding of carry trade positions, which I believe explains the single currency's rally (note that the dollar didn't really fall so much against other currencies other than the yen). The break above $1.122 was a technical signal to go long (I didn't), and now prices are coming back to a medium-term resistance level at $1.14. The pink trend line in my chart offered a good short opportunity at the end of June and may be of use next week if prices show signs of hesitation like they did between 18 June and 22 June (i.e. wicks on candlesticks at resistance level). I'll be watching EUR/USD for such bearish hints. If $114 breaks however, this would suggest a move back up to $1.15, which is also a major resistance level.
by ABRAK75
UPBEAT US RETAIL SALES SUPPORT 'TRIANGLE CASE' IN EUR/USD A decent US retail sales report keeps rate hike hopes alive. The number for July grew 0.6% after a revision showed sales were flat in June. Retail sales ex autos, considered a more accurate metric, grew 0.4% vs -0,1% last month. Dollar gained support after the release. On the other hand, initial jobless claims ticked higher to 274,000 from 269,000 last week, which curbed USD advance. I am sticking to the Triangle pattern development in EUR/USD. As predicted in the last post, the price reached the first resistance cluster at 1.1168-1.1195, and bounced off. There are two scenarios: either Wave C is complete and the pair is likely to slide back to 1.0902-1.0962 area; or another upward move will help it reach 1.1255-1.1287 cluster.
by Nickonomics
Trend line resistance on EUR/USD at $1.11The dollar is holding well so far this week thanks to the solid US employment data published Friday on top of the Chinese yuan devaluation today. While we see the greenback rallying against Asian FX and commodity currencies right now, the euro is holding. I still anticipate renewed buying pressure on the dollar over the medium term and am interested in a short opportunity on the EUR/USD at the $1.11 level (trend line resistance). Technically speaking, a reversal below this level would probably see prices fall back to $1.08. If this does indeed happen, I would expect this support to break, at which point I would target $1.05 (and hopefully new year lows by September). A stop above $1.115 with a entry at around $1.1100-20 will allow for a risk/reward ratio greater than 1:5.
Short
by ABRAK75
2
EURUSD short opportunityThe dollar is holding well so far this week thanks to the solid US employment data published Friday on top of the Chinese yuan devaluation today. While we see the greenback rallying against Asian FX and commodity currencies right now, the euro is holding. I still anticipate renewed buying pressure on the dollar over the medium term and am interested in a short opportunity on the EUR/USD at the $1.11 level (trend line resistance). Technically speaking, a reversal below this level would probably see prices fall back to $1.08. If this does indeed happen, I would expect this support to break, at which point I would target $1.05 (and hopefully new year lows by September). A stop above $1.115 with a entry at around $1.1100-20 will allow for a risk/reward ratio greater than 1:5.
Short
by ABRAK75
4
USDOLLAR testing bullish trendline (need confirmation)Last week, I wrote that I expected the Dow Jones-FXCM US Dollar Index to break a resistance level at 12,040 points. The failed break at the beginning of the week was followed by a 1% drop yesterday, that cannot be explained by hard fundamentals. I think it had to do more with repositioning by traders who had bought the greenback too late on Friday/Monday (i.e. short squeeze on EUR/USD). This morning I have noticed that the USDOLLAR seems to be stabilizing just above a bullish trend line coming in from the June lows. This would be the third test necessary to confirm the presence of such a trend line for all those die-hard tech traders. If the dollar bounces back up to levels seen Monday, my initial call for a bullish breakout above 12,040 points would still be in play. Any longs initiated at current levels have a decent risk/reward ratio as stops are relatively tight (just below 11,060 points should be fine).
FX:USDOLLARLong
by ABRAK75
6
Waiting for EUR/USD to break $1.08I remain firmly bearish on the euro as I anticipate continued buying on the US dollar despite Yellen's hinting toward a hold in raising rates in September this week (please read : ). If consumer price data supports the dollar this afternoon, I think the euro may break the $1.08 level at the beginning of next week. Officially, I see the technical support at $1.0840, but I'd like to see a break below $1.08 just to be safe in order to target $1.05 by the beginning of August. I'm watching the Dow Jones-FXCM US Dollar Index for a bullish signal above 12,040 points to validate a bearish signal on the euro. If the support doesn't break by the beginning of next week (dollar weakness following the US CPI data will obviously limit the immediate downside potential), I'll be waiting to see what happens around $1.0950 as this is the first key resistance I see.
Short
by ABRAK75
1
Nasty candlestick on the EUR/USD daily chartOne more hour to go before the day's close on FXCM's FX server. The euro is just below $1.10 right now, which means that we're breaking Friday's lows. I identified a resistance level at $1.12 this morning (we were at $1.1150 at the time of publishing the idea), and seeing the daily candlestick now, I have a tendency of thinking that we won't be seeing $1.12 anytime soon. $1.195 and $1.184 are potential bearish targets if the euro continues to fall, but we'll have to be careful with the ECB rate statement later in the week. I'm thinking that the week's highs are already in place and that we're going to come out of this congestion area with a new bearish leg all the way down to $1.05 in the coming weeks.
Short
by ABRAK75
4
EURUSD in a wedge (resistance at $1.112)EURUSD seems to be in a wedge right now, and prices are currently testing a horizontal resistance level at $1.112. I wrong wrong yesterday in thinking the dollar might bounce following the FOMC minutes (see the related idea on the USDOLLAR below), but the wedge here makes me think that shorting the euro might end up a decent play today. I'll be watching this setup closely during the first hours of the European trading session for further information to support a bearish stance today. Right now, any short position should warrant a stop above $1.113, which will theoretically allow for a risk/return ratio above 1:2 given that a downside reversal could lead to prices falling back to $1.10.
Short
by ABRAK75
5
EURUSD on the Hourly TF Bearish looking to close Gap for ShortEURUSD 1.1000 Opened at a huge gap down, at a support 1.0972 Buying this low is aggressive as we are buying at a bearish channel and consider to be a counter trend, The best opportunity occurs when EURUSD closes the gap at 1.1111 and re-test the bear channel high and the target is at the channel lows at 1.0827 to 1.0730 Selling this low is aggressive as well, as we have this gap above and we are in the middle of this major bear channel
Short
by Mohammed_Al-Yahya
3
Stumbling the EURUSD legs by the hour{sorry - repost here, since the last published idea was cut-off to the right of the chart} Not much has changed on the EUR USD : -------------------------------------------------------- - the overbought and/or almost overbought levels the RSI have NOT given any clue to a continued bull trend - ON THE CONTRARY, the oversold levels in RSI were not followed by an overbought RSI level. That makes a bull move all the more suspicious - and a continued downtrend all the more possible - the solution to this Triangle (approx. maximum date for this = at 25th June) will tell whether bulls or bears are right - since the bulls keep pushing, but remain to fail at the resistance line, the odds are to the downside - note: this can be flipped, if broken to the upside decisively My bias therefore remains: short, for first a testing of the 1.1180 level (red support area), then next testing of 1.1070 level (green support area) . Given that we have got big events (or at least preceived that way :-) upcoming as the EUR Finance Council will discuss Greece's affairs - I am still holding on to my shorts, awaiting/speculating on first a watershed event (bad) only then to (possibly) to see some "solution" (which it won't be) for a quick rebounce thereafter. If (if!) the 1.1070/1.1050 level gets broken violently, I will just enjoy the ride down. Otherwise, on just bouncing around about that level, I will cover my shorts there. Take care, be wise, but be bold too :)
Short
by JohnLaw
EURUSD at trend line resistanceWhile the euro has fallen a bit against the yen and the pound today, the dollar's weakness has limited the downside risk in EURUSD. If the dollar ends up rebounding following May's US retail sales data on Thursday, we may very well see the euro fall back to $1.12 or even below given the long term trend line that's currently being tested (it comes in at around $1.137$). This is something that we should all be following tomorrow. If the dollar continues to fall, however, don't expect EURUSD to provide a new short opportunity as the trend line resistance would probably break. $1.15 would likely be reached once $1.14 gave way. I'll be updating this idea tomorrow based on how the market moves following the US retail sales data.
Short
by ABRAK75
4
Stumbling the EURUSD legs by the hourThings have changed on the hourly chart. - now overbought level in RSI again turns the hourly chart into neutral mode - I would not say bullish mode (yet) - the last & very swift up move calls for a correction, especially since it is meeting resistance - the daily chart is more diffuse (see yesterday's daily) Since this 1 hour chart is now also going neutral, possibly bullsih, on the next correction down, with target 1 = 1.1180, target 2 = 1.1070 I shall close my shorts on a 50/50 basis, giving me (in total) about a break-even exit to a slight profit on exit. SHOULD the price action into 1.1070 be violent and bad (bad!) news, I may hold part of the shorts for a fun (risky) ride.
Short
by JohnLaw
Watch for the Bund to bottom around 148.50The sharp rise in sovereign yields in Europe has taken a lot of people by surprise, and the sentiment in the market is more and more bearish as people are starting to believe Bill Gross's "short of a century" statement made two months ago. We should all be asking ourselves if it's reasonable to expect yields to keep rising over the long term as the ECB will clearly continue buying up excess supply for the next 15 months. If you think this is the case, then you must believe that the euro will head back above $1.20 during the second half of the year (this isn't necessarily out of the question given the risk with Fed rate forecasts). Whatever you may think on a fundamental basis, you should be watching the Bund's long-term bullish trend line closely in the days ahead. This support comes in at around 148.50, which is the 50% retracement level from the 2013 lows to this year's highs. Any daily candlestick indicating a bullish reversal after having tested this support would make me want to attempt a long strategy. I'd like to see the EUR/USD hit $1.145-1.15 with the Bund at support to have the best timing possible on such a strategy.
GLong
by ABRAK75
6
EURUSD Technical Bearish Outlook~~~LOOK ON BIGGER TIMEFRAME CHARTS IN COMMENTS~~~ EURUSD might have another leg down before making some upmove after bouncing the Daily resistance or Monthly resistance. My RSI shows me some more breath-space is available before continuing downwards, also Fib. confims this. At this page( fxbootcamp.com ) you can see, under euro that the majority of traders are dramatically short(wich is the faded red line) against the traders who are long(wich is the faded grey line).
by Vranken
3
$1.15 could be a level to short the euroThe euro has risen significantly against the US dollar these past couple of weeks, and prices are reaching a key resistance level around $1.153 (February's highs). A long-term trend line comes in at around the same level, which makes me believe that shorting EURUSD will be again possible starting next week. If indeed this is the case, we would need to see the US dollar stabilize (watch the Dow Jones-FXCM US Dollar Index at around 11,580/90 points for support). With the recent volatility in European sovereign yields, the markets have seemed to have forgotten the long-term fundamentals : the BCE will continue buying up sovereign debt even if disinflationary forces abate. I expect that investors and traders will realize this fact soon enough once yields start falling again, which would make a short strategy on EURUSD attractive. The only real obstacle to seeing renewed pressure on EURUSD is the poor US economic data that is weighing on expectations of a Fed rate hike this year. I don't foresee data improving right away, so this could make shorting EURUSD at $1.15 a bit difficult. A break above 1.16$ would invalidate this strategy, likely leading to a move back up to $1.18 and possibly $1.20 this summer.
Short
by ABRAK75
2
Euro/dollar thoughts - May 2015I've started trading again EUR/USD spot for a little while now, since SPY has gotten choppy lately, and have gotten a couple calls alright. I'm gonna risk to post one of these in here. I'm mildly bullish on EUR given broad weakness on the dollar and supportive technicals (esp. a clear uptrend in RSI). 1.1500 seems to be the next line of resistance - I still remember a wall of offers at that level right before the implementation of ECB QE, circa Feburary 2015. IF that area is cleared on a closing basis, there's very little in terms of resis until 1.20-ish (2015 initial and maximum levels). I will buy euro on dips around 1.13 and aim for the selected targets. Best of luck.
Long
by Daniel_Urdaneta