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Eur_usd

EURUSD - Could it be the "come back kid"?Bullish tone for USD is becoming very pronounced. GS has put out a EURUSD projection to Parity. All known fundamentals seem to suggest USD strength for foreseeable future and it is well rehearsed. So I will fully understand if my chart and analysis is called into question. Some have questioned my approach and are asking what happened with one of my chart where I expected a bottom around 1.34 area? Well that is the beauty of having a stop to protect when you are wrong or are right but misjudged the overall swing. Overall view that EURUSD could surprise many with its move to the upside still holds and is detailed in last published updated chart link: Anyway, having dropped to 1.2350 zone, the 5 wave move from May high appears to be complete. Either low has already been posted or will this week. So now looking for safe long entry with money management in place is the most logical trade for intermediate to long term swing with 134-1.35 as very likely or might have major new bullish cycle in store. This also no supported by other correlation studies which I will share below. As always confirm any plan to trade by your own analysis. consider following me if you are not already doing so or select to follow this charts for any updates or comments. Feel free to share the chart with your circle of trader friends. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.
Long
by DanV
6
EURO Decline -- Is it over? NO! No Evidence of Bottom YetThis chart shows EUR/USD, the Euro Currency, on a Weekly timeframe. (NOTE: Updated chart below, accidentally clicked off the Dynamic Levels that were supposed to be in the above chart) Plotted on the chart is SCMR Trends™, which sequences price to find the correct behavior and identify good setups. It is available (along with other indicators in the package) in the TradingView Marketplace App store. The point of this post is to state that on the larger timeframe, the Euro has provided zero evidence that it is done trending down. No -- it is not yet reversing. This is a relevant observation because the conventional wisdom is that the price is oversold -- and yes, it certainly is -- but that currently there is no actual evidence of reversal, so to bet on a longer term reversal here and now is not the right move. We would need more data from the market that suggests a reversal is actually underway (such a Blue unconfirmed reversal or an "O" plotting under price, a confirmed reversal). This may come to pass sooner than I expect, but the important thing is that it's not happening now. Looking in the past, the Euro was in an uptrend and provided several good signals from confirmed reversals up ("O" under price) and the Pivot bars ("P" above price). Today though, all we see is red (a downtrend). My take is that the market can trend lower for several more weeks before a true low (which is still theoretical at this point). ------------- Let's look briefly at the economic and fundamental reasons for this move. 1.) EU recession. Recent data from the ECB shows that Eurozone has negative growth. The ECB is not allowed to print -- only issue bonds -- so there is a *huge* cost incentive to weaken the Euro to boost demand for these bonds, especially if they are settled in dollars. 2.) The other side of the coin is that a weaker currency can help boost foreign investment, which adds demand to a stagnating economy. Both of these reasons, structurally and politically are why I believe the strong Dollar and weak Euro can persist longer than many expect. RISKS: 1.) Perhaps the ECB will change its tune. I doubt this 4.) Not a recommendation to buy or sell, just an example the ways in which you can combine structural fundamental analysis with price action, which while oversold, is not yet actually indicating a reversal (even if only temporarily).
by SPYderCrusher
17
10_16_14 Short move upWith price pushing up against this resistance area @ 1.28, which has multiple points of resistance (psychological, .50 fib retracement from early Sept, and horizontal resistance.) There is an opportunity to enter short, with a good RR ratio (2:1). With the overall trend being down, this trade would be in the direction of that trend. Use caution once price approaches the 200 ema, and the upward trendline. Timeline for the trade is short term, although if price breaks through the 200 EMA and the upward trendline, continue to hold.
Short
by matt_forex
2
EURUSD - Likely to Form Reversal LowIn my previous published chart the anticipated low did not form as the selling pressure gained momentum. However, my overall expectation for EURSD has not changed. There is too much made of Eurozone weakness and USD is not exactly out of woods. Specially if the expectation of rising interest rate do not materialise soon. Consequently, EURUSD could mount a strong rally to retest the declining major resistance line before another down swing to completion of the bullish triangle, or we have near completion of 78.6% Fib retracement of the June 2010 - May 2011 swing. ADX on weekly suggesting potential over extension and signalling climax in the offing. These observations are even more clear on daily time frame.
Long
by DanV
13
London Session Watch EURUSDThere's a multiple-bar inside bar candlestick pattern formed under the 1.2675 resistance level. Then we have a pin bar candlestick pattern that caused a false break of the inside bar pattern. This false break trapped those breakout traders and this bearish candlestick pattern could lead price lower in today's London session. Ideally we would prefer the pin bar candlestick pattern to pierce through the upper band of the Bollinger Band but the current pin bar candlestick pattern could still drive the price lower. Note that the Stochastic indicator and Commodity Channel Index CCI are showing the price is currently overbought which adds fuel to the bears. The Average True Range ATR also shows that the volatility has been increasing in the last two days which is good for the bears. We could have great selling opportunities in today London session with all the indicators supporting the bears.
Short
by radoslaw.mazgaj
EUR/USD just in casePrice can basically go into any direction now, but just in case it suddenly drops to the green circle, there is a very high chance for direct reversal there. RSI will be oversold at the major support lvl, backed by channel support. Not a bad idea to watch out for potential opportunity. In case it happens and you enter long there, follow your trade at least until the price pierces the channel resistance line (blue circle), corrects itself and continues up. If it bounces back down before piercing the channel resistance, hedge the hell out.
by Oaken
EURUSD 4hr Short Trade Initiated. Heading for 1.2387 long-termOn the 4 hour I'm seeing a breakout Short for a longer term trade. I expect 1.2387 as the final destination as long as price doesn't reverse (close over) above the 1.3361 mark as this would invalidate the trade and stop out. As per my other IDEA's I expect consolidation and retracement within levels and I don't worry unless they approach my SL. Price could head straight down or fight its way! I'll also be looking on lower time-frames for setups using my setup technique. I already have one in play on the 1hour going short which supports this direction. i.e. trade within a trade.
Short
by dru_01
2
London Session Watch EURUSDThere is a bullish engulfing bar candlestick pattern on EUR/USD that is pushing the price higher. The Stochastic, Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are showing the price is oversold at the time the bullish engulfing bar candlestick pattern was formed. The overall long term trend is still down as the short term moving averages (10 and 20 period) remain below the long term moving averages (50,100 and 200 period) and the Tenken-sen continues to stay below the Kijun-sen as well. If the bullish engulfing bar candlestick pattern could push the price to the 1.2920 resistance level, we could then potentially have selling opportunities in today's London session.
Short
by radoslaw.mazgaj
EURUSD: 4 In A Row On The Euro?As a pattern trader the EURUSD has been one of my best performers over the past few weeks. After our last big drop from 3150's the market has finally shown some relief in the form of consolidation before the next big move. Fortunately, for pattern traders consolidation is great, because inside that choppy, nasty looking price action are advanced patterns, which if played right can yield some pretty good profits. The EURUSD has been 3 for 3 lately and is setting up it's 4th for a potential completion today. Odds are that a loser is due, but that doesn't mean that this one is going to be it. It's not my job to try and over think the pattern. it is what it is and it's my job to participate. If it loses it's not a big deal because the previous 3 have already covered it. If it wins then I'm simply working towards padding my account to absorb the next loss. That's what trading is, wins need to cover the losses and if you're consistently doing so losses won't hurt anymore. Akil
Short
by Akil_Stokes
26
Bracketing The EuroIt's been a rough go around for pattern trades as of late (I'll talk more about that in my Weekend Review tonight www.youtube.com) But if the pattern is valid and meets you ROE's then you've got to pull the trigger. I'm still holding the 2nd half of my position on a EURUSD short from earlier in the week, but today we've got both a bullish gartley and a bearish bat bracketing this pair. For news today we want to keep an eye on 8:30am (ny) as our usual Unemployment Claims are released and then once again at 3:00pm (ny) as the ECB President Mario Draghi is set to speak.
by Akil_Stokes
12