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EURARS

EUARS long Better than all cryptos perfomed the last 10 yearsStrategy Bullish Higher Highs Higher Lows Retracement (10%) Price above Quartely VWAP Price above Decade VWAP Volatility Bullish Maket Sentiment 98% Bullish Yearly Trend Bullish Quartely Trend Bullish Monthly Bullish Daily Bullish 4H Bullish 2H Bullish 1H Bullish 30 min. Bullish Portfolio Strategy: Volatility/Risk(Per Trade) Position Sizing Risk Management 2: Trailing Stop (Donchian/Turtle Trader)/N(Volatility(Per Day) or (Quarter)*(risk per Trade) William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, also noted that shocks from the El Nino weather pattern could prompt inflation in central and south American regions to cool more slowly than previously expected. "Latin American central banks are unlikely to look through food price shocks given how strong headline inflation and wage growth in the region still are. So, upside inflation surprises could postpone the upcoming monetary easing cycles, or make them more gradual." The Mexican peso slipped 0.4% and was set to snap a four-day winning streak, after touching its highest level since early December 2015 on Wednesday. The MSCI gauge for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) gained 1.3%, led by a 1.4% advance in Brazil's Bovespa IBOV . Foreigners funneled over $22 billion net into emerging market portfolios in June, the largest amount since January, according to data from the Institute of International Finance. A Guatemalan court ordered the suspension of anti-graft presidential candidate Bernardo Arevalo's political party, threatening his place in a run-off vote and prompting U.S. warnings of a challenge to democracy. Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund's executive board has approved an immediate $189 million disbursement to Zambia following its first review of a $1.3 billion loan programme. Latam FX hits 10-year high on weak dollar as US inflation slows The index for Latin American currencies touched a 10-year high on Wednesday, led by Brazil's real, as the dollar dwindled after a U.S. inflation reading indicated just one more interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year. The MSCI index for Latam currencies (.MILA00000CUS) jumped 1.6%, hitting its highest level since April 2013. Most currencies hit multi-year highs against a weakening dollar after June U.S. consumer prices rose at their smallest annual pace in over two years. Although talks of rate cuts have intensified in Latam of late, bets on the U.S. rate-hiking cycle coming to an end will likely lead to a favorable interest rates differential. The Mexican peso USDMXN jumped 1%, breaking below the psychological barrier of 17 pesos per dollar, touching an eight year high. Higher crude oil prices also boosted the Mexican peso and top exporter Colombia's peso USDCOP by 0.8%. Copper prices hit 2-1/2-week highs, boosting currencies of main exporters. Chile's peso USDCLP added 0.7% and Peru's sol USDPEN rose 1.3%, to its highest level since November 2020. Peru's central bank is set to decide on policy rates on Thursday. Chile's Finance Minister Mario Marcel said the government now expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 0.2% in 2023, revising its forecast down from a previous estimate of 0.3%. The Brazilian real (BRBY) USDBRL gained 0.8%, touching a one-week high. The rapporteur for Brazil's tax reform bill in the Senate, Eduardo Braga, on Tuesday said that he expects the proposal to be voted on in October in the House. Data showed Brazil's services activity grew by much more than expected in May, paring some losses seen in April despite high interest rates. "Progress on the structural reform agenda and the (Brazil) government decision to maintain the CPI target at 3% have cleared the way for rate cuts; we expect a 50bps cut on August 2," said Lawrence Brainard, chief EM economist at TS Lombard. Meanwhile, Argentine polling firms warned of difficulties accurately predicting the upcoming presidential primaries' results due to low turnout and the emergence of surprise candidates, leaving the October election also uncertain. The MSCI index for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) jumped 2.5%, touching a one-week high, led by a 1.4% advance Brazil's Bovespa IBOV . World's largest meat packer JBS SA JBSS3 jumped 9% after proposing a New York listing. Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $3 billion, nine-month bailout programme for Pakistan. YEN Oil AUD NZD Asian stocks fall on bad chinese data China Industrial Output Growth Beats Estimates The Chinese economy advanced 6.3% yoy in Q2 of 2023, faster than a 4.5% growth in Q1 but missing market estimates of 7.3%. The latest figures were distorted by a low base of comparison last year when Shanghai and other big cities were in strict lockdown. During H1, the economy grew by 5.5%. China has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for this year after the economy expanded by 3% in 2022 and missed the government's target of about 5.5%. Beijing has shown reluctance to launch greater stimulus, especially as local government debt has soared. In June alone, indicators showed a mixed picture: retail sales rose the least in 5 months, industrial output growth grew for the 14th month, and the urban jobless rate was unchanged at 5.2% but youth unemployment hit a new high of 21.3%. Data released earlier showed shipments from China fell the most in three years, as high inflation in key markets and geopolitics hit foreign demand. A Politburo meeting is expected later this month. Asian Stocks Fall on Weak Chinese Data Asian equity markets fell on Monday as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. The Shanghai Composite led the decline, losing more than 1%. The Shenzhen Component, S&P/ASX 200 and Kospi indexes also tumbled. Meanwhile, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, while Hong Kong markets will likely be closed for the day due to a typhoon. China Stocks Drop on Weak GDP Data The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.1% to around 3,200 while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.8% to 10,990 on Monday, giving back gains from last week as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. Meanwhile, China’s industrial production and fixed asset investments increased more than anticipated, while retail sales missed forecasts. Mainland stocks gained last week amid hopes that a faltering post-pandemic recovery would prompt Beijing to offer more pro-growth policy measures. Commodity-linked and financial stocks led the decline, with notable losses from Yunnan Lincang (-3.5%), Zijin Mining (-1.5%), China Shenhua Energy (-4.5%), ICBC (-6%), Ping An Insurance (-1%) and China Merchants Bank (-1.1%).
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
EURARS Long The perfect Bullish Trend45 degress; Andre Kostolany called this conditions as the perfect healthy trend that will continue longer than expected! strategy bullish trend no profit taking The trade is over ,if the trend conditions change Argentina’s experience after the collapse of the peso ten years ago supports the view that Greece, and perhaps other peripheral economies, would ultimately be better off leaving the euro-zone rather than struggling on with the current mix of austerity, bail-outs and debt restructuring. Summary Peronism, a populist movement established by President Juan Peron in the 1940s, remains the dominant political ideology in Argentina, but several parties with varying philosophies now vie for power. Despite its economic might, Argentina has often struggled to meet its international financial obligations, defaulting on its sovereign debt nine times. Argentina has maintained a close partnership with the United States since the Obama administration, but its relations with the rest of South America have been strained over China’s growing influence in the region. Argentina is considered one of the most stable democracies in Latin America, but the government faces several enduring challenges, including endemic corruption and low levels of public trust. In 2020, Argentina ranked 78 out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, tying with states including China and Kuwait. What is the state of Argentina’s economy? Argentina is the third-largest economy in Latin America, behind Brazil and Mexico. Its major industries include automobiles, textiles, mining, technology, agriculture, and tourism. Additionally, analysts say there is significant economic potential in the development of renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, and related resources, such as lithium. Argentina has historically shifted between pro-business and populist administrations, which have taken a more heavy-handed role in the economy and increased social spending. Before taking office, Fernandez promised to reverse the austerity measures enacted under Macri. His administration has since increased taxes on exports and high-income households, lowered interest rates, and raised the minimum wage. However, while year-on-year unemployment has fallen recently, the country still has one of the highest inflation rates in the world, and four in ten Argentines live below the national poverty line. Argentina’s top trading partners are the United States, Brazil, and China. The United States is also Argentina’s largest foreign investor, with more than three hundred U.S. companies operating there. In addition, Argentina is a member of several regional trade groups, including the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) and the Latin American Integration Association, and it is currently a prospective member for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a bloc of the world’s most advanced economies. What are Argentina’s major economic challenges? Argentina’s climate for business and investment has worsened in recent years, weakening due to political dysfunction, price and capital controls, high inflation, debt concerns, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, foreign investment dropped to $4.1 billion, down 38 percent from the previous year, and several international companies announced they were downsizing or leaving Argentina amid the country’s ongoing recession. The overall economy has shrunk each year since 2018. Argentina was one of the ten wealthiest countries per capita in the early twentieth century. However, economists say that its overreliance on commodity exports and unsustainable government spending fueled frequent boom-bust cycles, resulting in political instability and economic decline in the decades that followed. Successive administrations have struggled to keep the country’s finances in check during periods of economic turmoil. As a result, Argentina has often failed to pay its international creditors; it has defaulted on its sovereign debt nine times over the last two centuries, one of the most frequent in the world to do so. The largest default occurred in December 2001, when the government reneged on nearly $93 billion in loans, causing Argentina to lose access to international debt markets. To restore its ability to borrow, Macri cut export taxes, lifted currency controls, and negotiated a debt settlement with holdout creditors in 2016. While these actions were successful, Argentina lost access again following the country’s default in May 2020. As of December 2020, Argentina’s total national debt was $336 billion, or nearly 90 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). Of that, the government owes $45 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and $2.4 billion to the Paris Club, an informal group of private creditors.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
1
EURARS longstrategy bullish trend no profit taking The trade is over ,if the trend conditions change Argentina’s experience after the collapse of the peso ten years ago supports the view that Greece, and perhaps other peripheral economies, would ultimately be better off leaving the euro-zone rather than struggling on with the current mix of austerity, bail-outs and debt restructuring. Summary Peronism, a populist movement established by President Juan Peron in the 1940s, remains the dominant political ideology in Argentina, but several parties with varying philosophies now vie for power. Despite its economic might, Argentina has often struggled to meet its international financial obligations, defaulting on its sovereign debt nine times. Argentina has maintained a close partnership with the United States since the Obama administration, but its relations with the rest of South America have been strained over China’s growing influence in the region. Argentina is considered one of the most stable democracies in Latin America, but the government faces several enduring challenges, including endemic corruption and low levels of public trust. In 2020, Argentina ranked 78 out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, tying with states including China and Kuwait. What is the state of Argentina’s economy? Argentina is the third-largest economy in Latin America, behind Brazil and Mexico. Its major industries include automobiles, textiles, mining, technology, agriculture, and tourism. Additionally, analysts say there is significant economic potential in the development of renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, and related resources, such as lithium. Argentina has historically shifted between pro-business and populist administrations, which have taken a more heavy-handed role in the economy and increased social spending. Before taking office, Fernandez promised to reverse the austerity measures enacted under Macri. His administration has since increased taxes on exports and high-income households, lowered interest rates, and raised the minimum wage. However, while year-on-year unemployment has fallen recently, the country still has one of the highest inflation rates in the world, and four in ten Argentines live below the national poverty line. Argentina’s top trading partners are the United States, Brazil, and China. The United States is also Argentina’s largest foreign investor, with more than three hundred U.S. companies operating there. In addition, Argentina is a member of several regional trade groups, including the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) and the Latin American Integration Association, and it is currently a prospective member for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a bloc of the world’s most advanced economies. What are Argentina’s major economic challenges? Argentina’s climate for business and investment has worsened in recent years, weakening due to political dysfunction, price and capital controls, high inflation, debt concerns, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, foreign investment dropped to $4.1 billion, down 38 percent from the previous year, and several international companies announced they were downsizing or leaving Argentina amid the country’s ongoing recession. The overall economy has shrunk each year since 2018. Argentina was one of the ten wealthiest countries per capita in the early twentieth century. However, economists say that its overreliance on commodity exports and unsustainable government spending fueled frequent boom-bust cycles, resulting in political instability and economic decline in the decades that followed. Successive administrations have struggled to keep the country’s finances in check during periods of economic turmoil. As a result, Argentina has often failed to pay its international creditors; it has defaulted on its sovereign debt nine times over the last two centuries, one of the most frequent in the world to do so. The largest default occurred in December 2001, when the government reneged on nearly $93 billion in loans, causing Argentina to lose access to international debt markets. To restore its ability to borrow, Macri cut export taxes, lifted currency controls, and negotiated a debt settlement with holdout creditors in 2016. While these actions were successful, Argentina lost access again following the country’s default in May 2020. As of December 2020, Argentina’s total national debt was $336 billion, or nearly 90 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). Of that, the government owes $45 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and $2.4 billion to the Paris Club, an informal group of private creditors.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX