EUR/CAD: Bullish Momentum Pick's UpTechnical Analysis
i) The lows at the end of May kissed the .236 fib level producing a substantially large wick, an indication that the bears are losing momentum.
ii) This was followed by a strong Bullish Pin Bar which printed on the .5 fib level suggesting that the May lows (.236 fib level) had a strong potential to be a reversal for the short term.
iii) We have failed to close above the .618 fib level as of yet, as a result I am slightly hesitant to bull the trigger on the long positions as this movement could be part of retracement which is why I have decided to be a bit more patient, and subsequently would be looking to short instead. Remember never get married to a position, be fluid like water!
iv) Assuming that this latest leg was in fact a reversal and not a retracement I would be looking to take the long positions to the 1.60-1.62 region where I would slowly begin to ease into short positions.
Both Moving Averages show a steady upside growth, while the 50 MA gradient has begun to steepen significantly. Furthermore, the divergence between the MACD and signal has begun to narrow implying we could have a cross over which would indicate a 'buy signal' for all the MACD trades, while the Histogram almost turns positive triggering further 'buy signals' for traders.
Fundamental Analysis
As a result of Donald Trumps trade way where tarrifs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminium the aftermath of such decisions has hit Canada and the EU and other nations, alienainting companies like Harley-Davidson Inc. forcing them to shift production due to increased manufacturing costs, estimated at up to $100 million yearly. Evidently Trumps Tarrfis are having a knock on effect already in other countries as they are forced to encourage more protectionist policy inhibiting global trade and having a negative impact on markets.
The Canadian goverment is now taking measures to prevent a flood of steel imports from global producers seeking to avoid the U.S. tariffs, including quotas on certain steel imports to prevent dumping, with tariffs applived above that threshold set to be in force from July 1st. Reluctantly, we saw the Canadian dollar weakened while shares in Stelco Holding Inc. one of the few publicly traded steel producers in Canada jumped as much as 2.5% soared.
