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Eurchfidea

#EURCHF Time for some Bullish action?We can clearly see that FX:EURCHF is in the up-trend for 4 years. Price bounce down from 1.20000 but, we noticed that price breakout from the bearish channel, which can indicate, it is only a pullback. After a breakout price squeezed to fake out all early buyers. Now we are in this triangle and, if we could get a push to up-side from this triangle then we should witness a nice bullish action -plus, we have a nice bullish divergence. Okay so summarizing following analysis, I believe EURCHF have nice bullish potential, so I'm going to buy this pair in this week. Let's go to work!
Long
by Jakubaszek
Swiss franc: referendum results and reaction of the francOn Sunday, a referendum was held in Switzerland. There were two issues on the agenda: the initiative on "living money" and the law on gambling on the Internet. The greatest fear among investors was caused by the potential radical reform of the banking sector of the country (Vollgeld). In case of a positive vote for this initiative, the country was in danger of serious shocks. But unlike the British, the Swiss had the prudence not to cut the branch on which they sit. The result of voting on this initiative is a sure failure. Accordingly, the status quo is preserved in the Swiss banking system. As for the second issue - protecting consumers from the "harmful consequences" of online casinos from abroad, this initiative was supported. Recall, many Swiss believe that this is only the first step towards the introduction of "Internet censorship" for "unwanted sites." In total, nothing radical has happened. So, the flash crash of the franc has been avoided. The reaction in the foreign exchange market was by and large absent, which once again we note, is conditioned by the nature of the results of the referendum. Force majeure, which could occur, did not occur, accordingly, the fundamental background did not change. However, we still do not see any reasons for his purchases. The fundamental reason for lowering the franc this week could be the meeting of the Presidents of the United States and North Korea (scheduled for June 12). Peaceful statements from Singapore following the meeting should provoke a decrease in demand for safe-havenassets. Accordingly, the franc will become the object of sales. Technically, in pairs with the euro, the pound and the Japanese yen, there are good opportunities for franc sales. And the potential for its reduction in each of these cases is several hundred points. The bases are the same - these crosses are close to the boundaries of their medium-term ranges, which means that the probability of their reverse is high now. For example, in the GBPCHF pair, the growth target is 1.35 or even 1.38. In the EURCHF cross it is about 1.18 or 1.20. As for the pair CHFJPY, the target of the current movement is the area of 108.50. As you can see, the Swiss franc has sufficient potential for decline in the foreseeable future, which is worth taking, selling it primarily against the euro, the pound and the Japanese yen.
Long
by Trade24Fx
EURCHF: the last preparations before the referendumEURCHF expectedly could not overcome the lower limit of its medium-term range of 1.15-1.20 and everything goes to the fact that the range trading will continue. And this means that the goal of the current movement is growth to the upper border, that is, to the area of 1.20. What will act as drivers of this growth? From the point of view of the euro-component of this cross, these are the following points: a) a certain reduction in the political tension in the Eurozone - the improvement of the situation in Italy and Spain; b) market participants are waiting for the forthcoming meeting of the ECB and announcements about the beginning of the curtailment of the ultra-soft monetary policy; c) good statistics from the Eurozone, published this week, sets up traders to a positive attitude towards the euro. As for the franc, we continue to focus on the upcoming referendum. Yes, there are not so many chances for voting "yes" about the reform of the banking sector, but from this the potential reaction to the force majeure outcome only increases in a scale. That is, the franc is vulnerable. It is possible that on Friday some investors will decide to withdraw from the franc "just in case". And this means that the conditions for the growth of the pair are now the most favorable. In this regard, we recommend buying a pair from current prices (with the possible increase of the overall position around 1.15, if the pair suddenly decides to return to this key support). The purpose of these purchases – movement to the upper limit of the range (1.20), where it is worthwhile to take profits. As for possible force majeure in the form of referendum results, in this case we recommend to set pending orders for breakthrough above 1.20 and profits in the 1.30 area.
by Trade24Fx
EURCHF: possible options for reaction to the referendum Technically, the EURCHF is in a rather interesting place for “buy”. 1.15 is the lower limit of the current medium-term range. In addition, in the last couple years, the dynamics of the pair has been upward, which only strengthens the buy signal from 1.15. Yes, there were several reasons for the decline of the pair: political problems and scandals in Europe (primarily Italy and Spain) which are pulling the euro down, but for the time being it is more fears and expectations for something bad, but not facts. For the breakdown of the powerful levels like 1.15, serious rationales in the form of real facts are needed, but now we don’t see them. There is a feeling that the pair can consolidate around 1.15, waiting for the results of the referendum in Switzerland on June 10 (referring to the Vollgeld referendum on so-called "living money" - essentially the monopolization of the monetary sphere by the Switzerland Central Bank, which could potentially hit the entire Swiss banking system and the franc in particular). In current prices, the outcome of the referendum "no", that is, the rejection of radical reform is incorporated. But if they vote in favor of reform there could be very serious consequences. Brexit shows that we should not underestimate the power of populists and demagogues. Franc can quite repeat what we saw several years earlier when it in a matter of hours has changed by 20% +. Thus, we potentially can witness another flash-crash in the EURCHF pair. The minimal goal in this case is obviously the achievement of local highs in the 1.20 area, in the event of taking it after stops execution and mass stop-reverses, the pair may well reach 1.30. As we can see, in the FOREX there is very interesting trade signal emerges, which is simply a crime to ignore. Especially considering that the risks relative to the profits are extremely insignificant (stops below 1.14, and profits in the region of 1.20 or even 1.30).
by Trade24Fx