EUR/GBP Technical Analysis## EUR/GBP Technical Analysis
Timeframe: 15-Minute Chart
### Chart Overview:
The EUR/GBP pair on the 15-minute timeframe exhibits detailed recent price action, incorporating several technical elements that suggest potential future movements.
### Key Elements:
1. Downtrend Channel:
- The chart initially indicates a downtrend channel, with the price respecting the upper trendline as resistance and the lower trendline as support.
- This channel suggests a bearish trend with lower highs and lower lows up to a certain point.
2. Breaking Out of the Channel:
- Recently, the price appears to have broken out of the downtrend channel to the upside, indicating a potential reversal or at least a short-term bullish correction.
- The breakout is accompanied by a consolidation phase just above the previous upper trendline.
3. Support and Resistance Levels:
- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance levels are noted at 0.84603, 0.85181, and above these, at the previous high around 0.8535.
- Support Levels: Key support levels include 0.84571, 0.84578, 0.84206, and further below at 0.84042 and 0.8400. These levels have provided significant support in the past and could act as potential bounce points if the price declines.
### Conclusion:
The EUR/GBP pair is currently in a critical phase, having recently broken out of a downtrend channel. The price action around key support and resistance levels will be crucial in determining the next move. Volume analysis supports the recent bullish breakout, suggesting potential for further upside if key resistance levels are breached. Always manage your risk with appropriate stop losses and position sizing.
EURGBP
EUR/GBP BUY at market (.8450)2 weeks ago the EUR/GBP opened with a market gap.
Those of you who read my previous posts on this subject will know that I believe gaps in the market are ALWAYS filled.
True, this can be weeks or even months but most commonly gaps are filled within 48 hours.
Last week downward pressure prevented the EUR gaining on the GBP and the gap remained.
I was moderately confident that the gap would be filled this week and I've had muliple LONG positions on EUR/GBP but every trade hit headwinds and were closed (at a profit).
This morning we saw the EUR decline with the weak German and French manufacturing and Services PMI but this was followed by weak GBP Flash Manufacturing and Servicing PMI and a look at the H1 chart will reveal that this has left this pair in a definitive northerly direction.
I've markeed the approximate path of the 200 EMA on the chart as, as can be seen, this was falling, then turned level and is now poised to head north.
At 14:45 (45 minutes) we have trhe USD Flash manufacturing and Services PMI.
I don't expect the release to have much impact on this pair.
I'm happy to be LONG on this pair in anticipation of the gap being closed sometime next week.
EUR/GBP Poised for Seasonal Upswing as July BeginsAs July kicks off, the EUR/GBP pair is entering a period of seasonal strength, supported by historical trends and favorable technical indicators. Historically, EUR/GBP has shown a tendency to perform well during this time of year, and this seasonality is further bolstered by the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The report indicates that the Euro is currently the preferred asset among institutional investors, often referred to as "smart money."
Recently, the EUR/GBP pair rebounded from the 0.8400 support level, a critical area that has provided a strong base for price action. This rebound, coupled with the seasonal patterns and smart money positioning, presents a compelling case for a bullish setup.
Given these factors, we are now looking for opportunities to enter long positions on the EUR/GBP pair, anticipating continued strength in the Euro as the month progresses.
EURGBP Will Go Up! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURGBP.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 0.843.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 0.852 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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BUY STOP at .8455 EUR/GBP (now .8443)At 12:00 today (25 minutes) we shall know what the BOE intend to do about the current round of interest rates.
The market expectation is 0 - 2 - 7.
The first digit is those MPC members who voted to increase rates (no-one expects this to be other than zero).
The second digit is those MPC members who voted for a decrease in rates (the last month saw 2 members vote for a decrease against market expectation)
The third digit reflects the opinion of MPC members who voted to leave rates unchanged.
The most likely print will be 0 - 2- 7 and rates to be held at 5.5% but if we see 0 - 3 - 6 or even 0 - 4 - 5 and we see a rate cut then we can expect a massive move in GBP.
In theory a vote to decrease interest rates and/or a rate cut should be GBP NEGATIVE but this is not guaranteed.
The path of EUR/GBP will be one of 2 ways (see chart) on release of the numbers.
If the market interpret the news as GBP positive (BULLISH) we can expect EUR/GBP to decline rapidly to at least WS1 support at .8400 but this support could easily break.
If the market see the news as GBP negative then I have a BUY STOP placed at .8455 which is a few pips above the 200 EMA on H1.
If this trade triggers then we can expect to see the gap that formed a week last open to close.
However the data comes out at 12:00 be ready for some rapid price moves across all GBP pairs.
Anyone with SHORT or LONG GBP trades will need to tighten stops but remember, spreads will increase by as much as 10 pips, possibly more as the news is announced.
EURGBP is approaching a significant resistanceHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring EURGBP for a selling opportunity around 0.84900 zone, EURGBP is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.84900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURGBP to find sellers at market?EURGBP - 24h expiry
The primary trend remains bearish.
The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs.
Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Bespoke resistance is located at 0.8455.
We look to Sell at 0.8455 (stop at 0.8473)
Our profit targets will be 0.8410 and 0.8400
Resistance: 0.8455 / 0.8470 / 0.8485
Support: 0.8425 / 0.8410 / 0.8395
Risk Disclaimer
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Forextraplaces - the week ahead - EUR/GBPIt's a well know market phenomenon that gaps in the market are inevitably always filled.
The market hates gaps.
No-one seems to know why but its simply a fact.
When the markets opened last Sunday (UK time) EUR gapped open across many pairs.
EUR/USD 25 pip gap - filled.
EUR/JPY 28 pip gap - filled.
EUR/CAD 26 pip gap - filled
EUR/CHF - no gap
EUR/AUD 37 pip NOT filled.
EUR/NZD 42 pip gap NOT filled.
These last 2 trading pairs have been in a steep decline since the end of April and show no signs of reversing so the gaps in these markets may not bve filled for some time but EUR/GBP is the pair to look at.
I expected this gap to have been filled last week particulalrly as GBP was largely BEARISH but this did not happen.
I expect that this gap WILL be filled this week.
Key is .8842.
If we see the price of EUR/GBP break .8842 (where I have a SELL STOP) , I expect the price to close the gap and then reverse sharply.
This will need to be done before Friday as the EURO PMI numbers will most likely set the direction of the EUR and these are due on Friday.
So look to get LONG on this pair and see if the gap is filled but be mindful that the overall picture for is pair is BEARISH.
EUR/GBP BUYERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello,Friends!
We are now examining the EUR/GBP pair and we can see that the pair is going down locally while also being in a downtrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB lower band being nearby indicating that the pair is oversold so we can go long from the support line below and a target at 0.849 level.
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EURGBP Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for EURGBP.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 0.843.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 0.836 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Market Analysis: EUR/GBP Poised For More LossesMarket Analysis: EUR/GBP Poised For More Losses
EUR/GBP is declining and trading below the 0.8410 support level.
Important Takeaways for EUR/GBP Analysis Today
- EUR/GBP is declining and showing bearish signs below 0.8460.
- There is a major declining channel forming with support at 0.8410 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of EUR/GBP at FXOpen, the pair struggled to gain pace for a move above 0.8520. The Euro settled below 0.8490 and started a fresh decline against the British Pound.
There was a clear move below the 0.8470 pivot level. The EUR/GBP chart suggests that the pair settled below the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.8460. A low is formed near 0.8412 and the pair is now consolidating losses.
Immediate resistance is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8457 swing high to the 0.8412 low at 0.8435 and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The next major resistance could be near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8457 swing high to the 0.8412 low at 0.8445. A close above the 0.8445 level might accelerate gains. In the stated case, the bulls may perhaps aim for a test of 0.8470. Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.8490 level.
Immediate support sits near 0.8410. There is also a major declining channel forming with support at 0.8410. The next major support is near 0.8380. A downside break below the 0.8380 support might call for more downsides. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward the 0.8350 support level.
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EURGBP Bank Money heist Plan in Bullish DirectionMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
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EurGbp could drop hard and test 0.8From a fundamental standpoint, given the political problems in the EU, the GBP is expected to outperform the Euro, regardless of what happens with the major pairs (EUR/USD and GBP/USD).
This, combined with the technical outlook, could create a promising selling opportunity for EUR/GBP.
As shown in the chart, the pair broke a major support level this week. Considering the descending triangle pattern that has contained EUR/GBP since late January, we could see an acceleration to the downside, potentially leading to a 400-pip drop to test the 0.80 psychological support.
My strategy is to sell on rallies.
EUR/GBP - Epic Comeback!! That liquidity zone is so heavy !!
A long the time accumulate all the liquidity..
Remember this pair is the most powerful, because there are two strength currencies ..
If you understand long term, you have a money gun..
Obviously with the perfect strategy !!
if you liked it, FOLLOW ME
EUR/GBP breaks down amid EU political uneaseSentiment in Europe remained pessimistic for the second consecutive day. Concerns about the continent's political future were underscored by the EUR/GBP reaching its lowest level since August 2022, alongside a sharp decline in French bonds and stocks. The yield on the benchmark 10-year French bonds increased by another 10 basis points as bond prices fell for the fourth straight day.
EUR/GBP breaks down
Given the breakdown in the EUR/GBP below key support around the pivotal 0.85 area, I will be monitoring for a potential ret-test of this area from underneath in the days ahead, before the trend potentially resumes.
Specifically, the area between 0.8480 to 0.8500 is now the most important resistance zone to watch for a potential trade.
Why are traders so concerned about EU’s political situation?
Investors are hesitant to buy into the latest dip due to the uncertainty surrounding the potential coalition government that could be led by President Macron and far-right Prime Minister Jordan Bardella. Additionally, the European Commission is expected to place France in an Excessive Deficit Procedure next week, raising concerns about France's fiscal sustainability and adherence to EU fiscal rules, adding further risk to the markets.
While European politics and their economic impact evolve gradually, the European elections suggest a future focus on border security and industrial policies, potentially shifting EU cooperation towards more domestic agendas. So far, sovereign debt tensions have been mostly confined to France, but today, we've seen minor turmoil spreading to a few southern European countries.
A rightward shift across Europe could heighten market uncertainty, making Europe less predictable and attractive to investors. It is crucial for European and national leaders to address these concerns promptly.
Written by Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
Follow me on twitter: x.com
EURGBP eyes support ahead of UK CPI printEURGBP initially began the year in a fairly well-defined trading range but showed bullish impetus after breaking out of the consolidation pattern. However, bullish momentum appeared lacking, as the pair struggled to maintain a steady directional move and has since shown a penchant towards mean reversion.
0.8635 proved too high to handle for the pair previously but the most recent bullish advance fell short of that, finding resistance around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) before heading lower.
The current spate of selling is showing signs of fatigue as the pair attempts to trade higher after four successive days of losses. The pair could find itself propped up by trendline support, which caught the bottoms in April and earlier on in May.
Keep an eye out for UK CPI tomorrow where there is an expectation of a notable move lower from the prior month. With such optimism, comes the potential for disappointment if the actual data fails to reach the low levels anticipated which may see sterling lift in the moments after the print. April data has the potential to surprise to the upside as this is the month when annual price rises and index-linked increases are implemented. On the other side of the equation, if the CPI data prints inline or lower than consensus estimates, EURGBP may rise off support as markets clear the way for a Bank of England cut sooner rather than later.
The Euro: Navigating Politics, Geopolitics, and SocietyThe euro, as the second most traded currency globally, is heavily influenced by the political stability of the European Union (EU) and global geopolitical dynamics. The stability of the euro is linked to the political environment within the EU, where recent events like the rise of EU-skeptic parties and political turbulence in key member states, such as France and Italy, have introduced uncertainty.
Geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict in Ukraine and economic policies from major economies like the US and China, also significantly impact the euro. Additionally, the rise of Islam in Europe, due to immigration and higher birth rates among Muslim communities, has influenced elections and political discourse, contributing to the success of far-right parties. These sociopolitical shifts further complicate the euro's stability by introducing political instability and policy uncertainty.
Currently, the pound-to-euro exchange rate has surged, driven by EU political instability and the cautious approach of the European Central Bank (ECB) towards inflation and interest rates. The euro's future will be shaped by a complex interplay of internal political cohesion, global geopolitical tensions, and sociocultural dynamics.