EURGBP Expectations: UK Inflation and BoE's Decision this WeekOn Monday, the pound reached its highest level against the euro in 10 months, at 85.25 pence, as investors await the British inflation data and the upcoming Bank of England decision. However, the currency pair quickly rebounded to the support level of the previous week, at 85.42 pence, but is perhaps now tracking down again.
In recent weeks, the sterling has experienced a rallied against the EUR and USD (particularly against the USD, marking its largest weekly gain since December 2022). This surge can be attributed to economic data suggesting that inflation in Britain is more persistent compared to the United States and Europe. As a result, traders have started factoring in more interest rate hikes from the Bank of England, leading to increased yields on British government bonds and bolstering the pound. Additionally, investors' expectations have been heightened by recent data showing a faster-than-anticipated growth in British wages.
Currently, the pound is down 0.26% against the dollar, trading at $1.278. However, it remains close to the 14-month high of $1.285 reached on Friday.
British inflation data is scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Economists predict that the headline Consumer Price Index will have slightly cooled to 8.5% year-on-year, down from 8.7% in April. However, they anticipate that the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, will remain steady at 6.8%. If these figures align with expectations, the pound could strengthen further due to the anticipation of additional interest rate increases by the Bank of England. Nevertheless, any unexpected results could introduce volatility into the market, and perhaps validate the recent rebound in the EUR.
On Thursday, the Bank of England will announce its decision on interest rates, with investors and economists expecting a 25 basis point hike to 4.75%. There is little uncertainty surrounding this decision, so traders will closely examine the bank's forward guidance. Indications of future interest rate hikes are likely to bolster the GBP.
