Get started

Eurgbplong

ECB vs BoE: What's next for EUR/GBP?The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) both raised interest rates by 50 basis points at their final meetings of the year. The Eurozone's policy rate was hiked to 2.5%, the highest in fourteen years, and the UK's to 3.5%, the highest since late 2008. In contrast to the relatively dovish BoE meeting, the ECB meeting was substantially more hawkish than the market had anticipated, prompting the EUR/GBP cross to surge. In a divided vote, the BoE decided to raise rates by 50bps, with one member (Mann) pressing for 75bps and two members (Tenreyro and Dhingra) preferring to maintain current rates. According to the BoE statement, more increases in the Bank Rate may be necessary due to ongoing inflationary pressures fueled by a tight labour market. In the first quarter of 2023, UK CPI inflation is expected to fall as household spending and property market indicators weaken. Even if the ECB lowered its speed of rate rises from 75bps to 50bps, it made it clear that interest rates will still have to climb consistently and by a steady pace to reach restrictive levels to get inflation back to 2% quickly. The ECB also indicated that quantitative tightening will begin in March 2023. The ECB will not reinvest all expiring securities' principal payments in the Asset Purchase Programme (APP), meaning its asset portfolio of eurozone bonds will fall at an average pace of €15 billion per month until Q2 2023, with the subsequent rate established over time. During the press conference, ECB President Lagarde reiterated that the ECB will rise with tenacity and that 50bps may be the right rate hike for the next meeting and the two after that. She also hinted that once the peak is achieved, "it won't be enough to hit and withdraw," and that high interest rates will be in place for a longer period of time. Historically, the interest-rate gap between the Euro Area and the UK has been one of the key driver behind the EUR/GBP exchange rate. Market reactions to the BoE and ECB meetings: Yields differential matter Before today's meeting, the market was highly dovish on the ECB, pricing in a peak of 2.8% next year, while it had already built in hawkish expectations on the BoE, pricing in a peak of 4.6% in the Bank Rate in August 2023. German bond yields soared by 15 basis points after the ECB rate announcement and during Lagarde's press conference, but UK gilt yields stayed nearly unchanged from pre-BoE meeting levels. The negative yield spread between German and UK sovereign bonds shrank throughout the curve today as investors repriced ECB rise expectations. The 2-year German-UK yield gap narrowed to -1% and the 10-year one to -1.2%.  In the coming weeks/days, market expectations for the ECB rate may continue to rise as ECB hawks are likely to reiterate their aggressive stance. The Bank of England's market pricing may stay broadly stable, given it has already incorporated heightened expectations ahead to the meeting. This may indicate that the negative yield disparity between German and British bonds will continue to narrow, exerting upward pressure on the euro-pound exchange rate. A further 30 basis point reduction in the negative yield spread between 2-year German bonds and UK gilts, lowering it from -1% to -0.70%, might drive EUR/GBP to 0.89 or near to the psychologically important level of 0.90.
by Capitalcom
EURGBP: BULLISH Market Analysis! Watching for REVERSE!Hello, everybody and welcome to Cybernetics Trading Lab, today we are going to analyse the EURGBP, translating the market information by using a full technical analysis on different time frames, giving you a personal opinion about the next most likely market movement and helping you to spot and manage market opportunities. Top Down Technical Analysis: In higher timeframe the market formed an interesting correcting structure and it looks having no strong momentum to proceeding the downside move as we were previous forecasted. In lower timeframe, few confluences are confirming our reversal bias, double top and descending channel, in this specific scenario, usually leads to a market reverse or evolving structure. When, where and why would we step into the market? Considering the current weak momentum, we can expect some move to the upside, room enough to move (more than 200 pip) will be enough to enter long and potentially capitalise on here. We will be looking for a long position if the market will break the LTF structure to the upside, targeting the top of the HTF structure and/or the next swing, and depending how sharp it will move, the RR will slightly change. However, in the scenario of market continuation to the downside, the trade idea will be invalidated and no action will be taken on this market. If you enjoy this trade idea, please support our work with a thumb up and don’t forget to follow our social medias! Sincerely, Cybernetics Trading Lab DISCLAIMER Please note the views are not investment advice and should be used only for educational purpose.
Long
by Cybernetics_tl
10
EURGBP I Long from weekly supportWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! **EURGBP - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support! Brian & Kenya Horton, BK Forex Academy
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
11
EUR / GBP bullish short term outlookEUR / GBP: Bullish outlook despite the pullback on November 10th and the fact that price found support above the 40 week (200 day) moving average which also intersects at 0.8686 (the 50% retracement from 4 week high / low) indicates the pair may have strong buyer support, this can be further supported by the fact that current price remains above its 4 week moving average, as well as the fact that both 4 and 13 week rate of change indicators are above their respective signal lines ( above zero), this technical conclusion supports the prospects for a bullish outlook over the short term (5-25 days) with upside potential targets near 0.8870 (Oct 12 high) and 0.8930 (38.2% retracement from the 13 week high low).
Long
by Skilling
EURGBP LongWhen we move onto the weekly time frame. We can see a sharp moved took place around the week of the 29th of August. This resulted the price breaking a weekly structural level which has been holding steady since around May of 2021. This combined with the breakout on a falling wedge pattern on the daily time frame add to our narrative of looking to go long on the EURGBP pair. We expect a return of between 13 %to 17% depending on how much you are willing to risk per trade.
Long
by NDOBObanks