EUR/JPY - Trade idea for the upcoming weekWhy did I choose this trade?
Trend Analysis and Bias:
-On the 4-hour (4H) chart, the price is in a downward correction but approaching a significant support area (Buy Zone) near 159.274, where I expect buyers to take control.
-My bias for the upcoming week is bullish, based on the overall market structure and key technical confirmations.
Key Structures and Confirmations:
-Break of Structure (BOS): The price has shown bullish strength by breaking key resistance levels multiple times in the past, confirming that buyers are dominant.
-Change of Character (CHoCH): After forming my Buy Zone, a clear CHoCH upwards occurred, providing another strong signal of buyer strength.
-Liquidity Grab: There is significant liquidity just above my Buy Zone, which has already been filled. This is another strong indication that the price could reverse upward from this zone.
-Fibonacci Confluence: I used the Fibonacci retracement tool to refine my Buy Zone. The Buy Zone aligns with the premium Fibonacci range, adding more confidence to the validity of this level.
Additionally, I always draw Fibonacci from an area of accumulation that leads to a break of structure. In this case, the accumulation area aligns perfectly with the Buy Zone, making it even stronger.
Volume and Imbalance:
The previous strong imbalance candle (IMB) shows that the market might retrace upward to fill this gap, further supporting my bullish outlook.
Psychological and Technical Levels:
The price is approaching the 159.000 level, a psychologically significant number that often acts as a magnet for buyers and sellers.
This level aligns closely with my Buy Zone, increasing the probability of a bullish reversal.
Trade Plan
Entry (Buy):
159.300, slightly above the Buy Zone, to capture the expected bullish reversal.
Stop Loss:
158.800, placed below the Buy Zone and the most recent swing low to avoid potential stop hunts.
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: 161.000 – The nearest resistance level, where price could encounter selling pressure.
TP2: 162.000 – A key resistance zone, ideal if bullish momentum continues strongly.
Why do I anticipate this move?
The Buy Zone is a strong support area, confirmed by Fibonacci confluence, bullish CHoCH, and prior liquidity being filled.
The Fibonacci is drawn from an accumulation zone that led to a structure break, further reinforcing the Buy Zone’s significance.
My bullish bias for the week aligns with these technical confirmations, suggesting that buyers will likely regain control at this level.
A combination of liquidity grab, CHoCH, BOS, and imbalance zones adds additional layers of confidence to this trade idea.
Disclaimer:
This is solely a trading idea based on my personal analysis, knowledge, and thought process. This is NOT financial advice. Please conduct your own research and implement proper risk management. Trading carries significant risks, and you should never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Tilen Safaric
