EURNOK
EURNOK - H4 SHORT SETUP - TTS-IIEntered SHORT on on EURNOK after the break and confirmed retest of the support turned resistance at 9.70000.
Monday gap has broken the 20 SMA as well as the range support and waited for the confirmed retest of the previous support (now resistance) before entering SHORT.
TP is at 9.40000 (365 pips) which is the first logical level of structure while SL just above (or barely above) the trigger candle (180 pips), giving a potential risk reward of 1:2.
EURNOK Sell IdeaEURNOK Sell Idea @ Daily Supply Zone (9.75401 - 9.80640)
Sell Limit: 9.74897
Stop Loss: 9.81383
Take Profit: 9.60227
Risk Management = 0.01/$100
Recommended Leverage not to exceed 1:50
Recommended Risk Ratio 1:1.5 – 1:3
Close partially the contract once it reaches 50% of profit, Move stop loss over the entry level
Close partially the contract once it reaches 80% of the profit
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Bullish momentum prevailsThe Euro has been appreciating against the Norwegian Krone since the the middle of October. This movement has been bounded in an ascending channel.
Given that the currency pair is supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, it is likely that the rate continues to go up within the following trading sessions. Technical indicators for the 4H and 1D time frames also support bullish scenario. A potential target is the resistance cluster formed by a combination of the weekly R2, the monthly R1 and the Fibonacci 50.00% retracement located circa 9.6000.
It is the unlikely case that some bearish pressure still prevails in the market, the Euro should not exceed the weekly S2 at 9.4719.
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Downside potentialThe Norwegian Krone has been appreciating against the Euro in a short-term descending channel. This movement began on September 7 when the pair reversed from the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel.
As apparent on the chart, the currency pair is pressured by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs. Most likely that the pair will continue to go down and will aim for the support level formed by a combination of the weekly S1 and the Fibonacci 100.00% retracement located circa 9.4100.
If given support level does not hold, it is likely that the exchange rate will continue to go downside to the weekly S2 at 3.3377.
EURNOK to rally=> Here we are arguing from the angle that the bearish sentiment on EURO as mentioned in our previous ideas will fade and begin to position into a solid macro narrative.
=> Qatar has announced an FX swap agreement with Turkey for $15bn this morning, frankly they might as well wave goodbye to this money with Erdogan at the helm. Short-term however this will provide support for EMU based banks.
=> ECB's Weidmann has begun talking up policy normalisation as expected and on the other side of the coin we have Italy praying for an extension in QE.
pascalToday at 10:00
=> Concerns over continued pressure on commodity prices is not painting a pretty picture for NOK. Markets have fully priced in the hike coming in September from Norges Bank and we are starting to see smart money taking profits.
=> We are targeting 9.80 - 9.90 with stops below the recent 9.50 low
=> Good luck
Pull back on 1D Channel Up. Long on Higher Low.EURNOK is trading on a 1D Channel Up (RSI = 57.905, MACD = 0.040, B/BP = 0.0035) that is pulling back to issue a new Higher Low. Given the neutral Highs/Lows = 0, this is close, so we will be going long with TP1 = 9.800 and TP2 = 9.8500 in extension.
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Pair shows signs of reversalThe most recent development of the EUR/NOK exchange rate is a breakout from the senior channel which occurred near 9.59 on August 16. This move has extended the pair’s three-day gain to 1.65%.
As a result, the Euro reached the upper boundary of a ten-week ascending channel at 9.68. Even though the price still continues to edge higher today, technical indicators are starting to point to a possible change in sentiment.
It is likely that a reversal south occurs soon, as the current three-day surge cannot be sustainable for long. It is likely that the pair makes a U-turn near the channel line and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement somewhere in the 9.70 area. A possible downside target for the following sessions is the 55– and 100-period (4H) SMAs and the monthly PP at 9.50.
1W Channel Down. Long-term short.EURNOK has just posted a Lower High on the long term 1W Channel Down (RSI = 48.488, MACD = -0.015, ROC = -1.366). 9.500 is an important 1D support level and will be tested shortly to confirm the new bearish leg on 1D (now on neutral RSI, Highs/Lows). We are taking this opportunity to open a medium term short with TP = 9.38806.
EUR/NOK is getting ready for the next impulse on weekly chart!!!This is a long term trade (around 1-2 months)
I see some bullish signals on weekly chart and looking for a breakout from inclined resistance.
Buy-in zone:
9.22-9.50
Profit Targets:
9.738
10.2
Stop-loss:
9.12
Have a nice week,
Berk.
EUR-NOKAn interesting graphic situation on EUR-NOK 4-hour chart. It's likely a pullback on the blue trendline before an increase in the price up to the profit area at 9.5600/9.5700. Stop loss at 8.4390/8.4400.
EURNOK, 4H, AB=CDA really nice 1:1 AB=CD pattern was just completed on EURNOK 4h.
The only "warning" is the "fast" fall down to the D-point = Tight SL.
RSI is oversold as well but the more restrictive can wait for it to break up over 20 (or 30 for those who use that).
The risk is that you miss a large part of the movement. As always - your plan and what you have tested is what determines how you should
take a trade.
For that reason, that is according to My plan in these conditions, I only place 1 position in this case - ie. half the risk of a "normal" trade with 2 positions.
EURNOK 4HR SHORT OPPORTUNITYTrade what we see:
Price is following a bearish channel with lower highs forming.
We have two support lines to work off, one formed on the 4hr chart and the second formed on the daily time frame.
A pin bar is forming now and I am waiting to setup this short position which has a great risk / reward ratio.
If this pair breaks out and we see a successful retest, then there will be a good long bias.
Weekly EURNOK - Potential Carry Trade IdeaEURNOK is setting up a low volatility breakout on the weekly chart.
This may be longer-term carry trading idea, but be sure to check
your rollover and spreads because it's an expensive pair to trade
and the volatility alone makes it troublesome.
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Long-term triangle dominatesThe EUR/NOK exchange rate has been constrained by a descending triangle which was formed in November, 2017. After testing the upper boundary of this long-term pattern early in May, the common European currency began depreciating against its Norwegian counterpart, thus reaching its bottom boundary at 9.47, likewise reinforced by the monthly S2, mid-yesterday.
It is likely that some downward pressure still prevails during the remaining part of this week, given that the pair might be pressured lower by the combined resistance of the 55-, 100– and 200-day SMAs near 9.60. However, the general price direction should nevertheless remain upwards in line with the prevailing triangle pattern, with its upper boundary being located at 9.65.
EURNOK longClearly, it is forming a bullish ascending triangle, now we have retraced to the resistance line which means it will target the flat top.
this may be the last move inside the tringle before a breakout to our second target
EUR / NOK
BUY:9,634
TARGET 1 : 9,715
TARGET 2 : 9,924
EURNOK Buy IdeaEURNOK Buy Idea @Dialy Demand Zone (9.61862 - 9.58448)
Buy Limit: 9.61862
Stop Loss: 9.58209
Take Profit: 9.66174
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Bounded in bearish patternsThe movement of EUR/NOK has been bounded in several patterns. Following a two-week period of appreciation, the pair bounced off the upper boundary of the senior channel and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 9.70 and formed a new wave downwards. This movement has been relatively flat, as the Euro has since remained trading near the senior channel.
By mid-today, the pair was testing the combined support of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the 50.0% Fibo line at 9.61. The current positioning of the pair suggests that it should decline both in the short and medium term. The nearest target is the bottom boundary of the junior channel and the 61.8% Fibo at 9.52, while a downward-sloping trend-line circa 9.42 could be targeted within the following two weeks. The 9.60 area still needs to be breached to confirm this scenario.
Conversely, a breakout of the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA at 9.63 is likely to result in a re-test of the senior channel circa 9.68.
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Bullish in medium termAfter bouncing off the senior channel on January 29, the common European currency began a new up-wave and formed an ascending channel along the way. The rate tested this junior pattern two weeks ago prior to edging lower down to the 6.68 area where it is trading today.
A closer look at the pair’s previous movement demonstrates that the Euro has been successful at respecting channels. Thus, it is likely that the aforementioned junior channel is able to constrain the rate next week, as well. A possible target for the following sessions could be the upper boundary of a three-month channel in the 9.76/78 territory. The rate’s subsequent movement is likewise expected northwards in line with the senior channel.
On the other hand, if the 55– and 100-hour SMAs near 9.6710 do not hold, the pair might be poised for a fall down to the senior channel circa 9.60/62.
EUR/NOK 4H Chart: Surge in sight The Euro began weakening against the Norwegian Krone after reaching the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel located at the nine-year high of 9.9880. The pair reached a one-year up-trend marked with the dotted line late in January and subsequently began surging in a steep upward movement. The pair was testing the 23.60% Fibo retracement (low and high at 8.7883 and 9.9949, respectively) and the 200-period SMA circa 9.70 today.
The current positioning of the pair suggests that the Euro might be due for a slight decline down to the 55– and 100-period SMAs and the trend-line during the following trading sessions prior to breaching the upper boundary of the aforementioned resistance area and accelerating towards the 9.90 mark.
