ridethepig | NOK Market Commentary 2020.05.21A very technical environment here with Germany away from their desks, support clearly defined at the 10.8x lows while resistance towards 11.05x will cap the highs.
With Crude starting to reach interesting levels for sellers the NOK rally will begin to unwind. The supply side can rebalance as much as they like, it will not offset the demand shock:
EURNOK
Global demand for EURO fallingI compared EURO value to all major world economies outside of European Economic area (EEA) for an accurate evaluation of euro currency on global scale (USA, Canada, China, India, Japan, Russia, Ukraine, Brasil, Australia and South Korea).
And this is what we get in times of COVID crisis:
When COVID started in Wuhan and China international demand for EURO started to increase rapidly. Euro broke yearly ceiling.
But as COVID started to infect EU in March uncertainity started and now we broke the demand line and started a bearish trend which will continue as we broke and closed below April support S3 (below April value).
OBX shortWith falling oil prices and corona-virus spreading like a wildfire, we are likely to see the obx drop even more. It does not look like Saudi or Russia is planning to stop dumping the oilprice either. The Norweigan krone is has had a huge loss because of the oil price, and foreign investors leave the norwegian market when the price of NOK vs EUR/USD is rising. The Euro has now risen more than 13% in the last 29 days
EURNOK suffers the worst sell-off in a few decadesEURNOK Forex cross pair (Euro versus Norwegian Krone) has broken all time high again after months. A previous monthly demand imbalance gained control last June 2018 and this cross pair has been rallying ever since.
Why has Norway’s Krone suffered the worst drop in half a century? Well, by doing supply and demand analysis on the monthly timeframe we can see that EURNOK forex cross pair was in a clear uptrend on. There is no reason to go short, only longs are possible by following the big picture monthly uptrend. We can see in the attachment a very strong monthly impulse around 10.35 at (1) that could eventually become an imbalance if price continues like that.
We don’t need to pay attention to Forex fundamental analysis if we are trading a supply and demand imbalances strategy and trading with the bigger picture trend. It’s taken for granted that if you trade the very small timeframes, fundamental analysis and news events will kick you out of the trade.
EURNOK BULLISH TREND-HIGH PROBABIITY TO MAKE MONEYReversal pattern for EURNOK completed and ready to go.
EURNOK analyze built reversal pattern what is a reversal pattern, Trend reversal patterns are essential indicators of the trend end and the start of a new movement. They are formed after the price level has reached its maximum value in the current trend. The main feature of trend reversal patterns is that they provide information both on the possible change in the trend and the probable value of price movement.
What pattern do we have?
A head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation that resembles a baseline with three peaks, the outside two are close in height and the middle is highest. In technical analysis, a head and shoulders pattern describes a specific chart formation that predicts a bullish-to-bearish trend reversal.
source: Head And Shoulders Pattern Definition - Investopedia
What is the target?
The target will be probably around 10.60.
Thank you to read and good luck .
New York Watchlist: EURNOK Sell EURNOK SELL
ENTRY 10.1580 /// MODERATE 10%
SL 10.17915 ( pips 221 )
TP 10.08605 ( pips 709 / RR 3.2 )
On 4H we have a solid contraction and we are pretty much at the top of it. RSI is at its highs too.
On 1H we have a minor contraction supportin the sell idea with a decent rejection level.
On the minute charts I see a reversal coming within this hour (in the next 50mins)
ridethepig | Apple in the worm for CADNOKA very good time to update the short-term flow setup for CADNOK after such a brilliant squeeze. For those tracking the 2020 Macro flows:
This week we have a simple technical move in play. A textbook case of "Apple in the worm" as it seems to me a poor choice of the moment for buyers to continue the advance. Extending the characteristics position (= swing configuration) by letting buyers go overboard and bet on momentum while the macro defence can be a reliable guardian.
A better move is to sell the 6.99xx highs here with targets located initially at the support levels 6.865xx.. and then perhaps 6.47xx. The business of a bullish NOK did not become an attacking instrument; stops can be kept comfortably above the 7.00xx handle.
Good luck all those trading CADNOK in the coming sessions, as usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!