EURO - Price can continue to decline inside wedge patternHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago, price tried to grow, but failed and dropped below $1.1220 support level, after which started to grow in channel.
In rising channel, price broke $1.1220 level one more time and then rose to resistance line and then corrected.
Next, Euro rose to $1.1455 level and some time traded inside this level, until it broke it and continued to move up.
Price exited from rising channel and later started to decline inside wedge pattern, where it declined to $1.1455 level.
Recently, price bounced from this level and in a short time rose to resistance line of wedge pattern.
In my mind, Euro can continue to decline to $1.1400 support line of wedge, breaking support level.
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Euro
Euro H4 | Potential reversal off a multi-swing-high resistanceThe Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.1609 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 1.1675 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 1.1535 which is a pullback support that aligns with a 50% Fiboancci retracement.
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Euro can drop from wedge, breaking support levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. The price previously started a confident upward movement, breaking out from the buyer zone around 1.1075 and forming an upward wedge pattern. As the trend continued, EUR pushed through the support area and traded inside the wedge, showing multiple bounces from the support line. Eventually, the pair reached the resistance line at the top of the wedge and then reversed. After a short correction, it tried to rebound again but failed to create a new high. The market then pulled back into the support area 1.1455 - 1.1410 and is now testing that level once more. Currently, the Euro is trading just above the support area, and we may see a short-term rebound from here. However, given the overall structure, I expect the price to break the support level and exit the wedge pattern to the downside. In my opinion, this breakout will initiate a strong bearish wave, targeting the 1.1250 points, which is where I’ve set my TP 1. Given the pattern structure, recent lower highs, and the weakening bullish momentum, I remain bearish and anticipate further decline once support is broken. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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EURUSD Channel Up formed bottom. Heavily bullish.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the May 12 Low. Today it hit its 4H MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since May 12 and having just broken also above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it confirmed that the pattern has already priced its bottom.
This is initiating the new Bullish Leg and based on the previous two, it should grow by at least +3.21%. We have a modest short-term Target at 1.1800.
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EUR/USD BULL RAID: Quick Profit Heist Before the Drop!🏴☠️ EUR/USD "The Fiber" HEIST ALERT: Bullish Loot Before the Trap! 🚨💰
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🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route):
Nearest Swing Low (1.15200) on 30M TF.
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🎯 Target (Profit Hideout): 1.16400
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Bullish momentum + weak bears = perfect robbery conditions.
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HelenP. I Euro will break resistance level and continue to fallHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. On this chart, we can see how price initially moved inside a triangle formation, forming higher lows from the trend line and testing the resistance zone multiple times. Eventually, price broke out to the downside, falling sharply and breaking through the lower boundary of the triangle and also the trend line, signaling a shift in market sentiment. After touching the support zone and forming a temporary bottom, the pair started climbing back up, but this movement was more of a correction than a trend reversal. Price respected the trend line from below and followed it upward, but failed to break significantly higher. It managed to push above both support 2 and support 1 levels, which now act as resistance. Currently, EURUSD is trading inside the resistance zone, where previous reactions have led to strong bearish impulses. Given this behavior and the recent false breakout, I expect the price to rebound from this area and break back below support. My goal is set at 1.1350, anticipating further downside movement as the bearish structure remains valid. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
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SHORT ON EUR/GPBWe have a rising channel (bearish reversal chart pattern) at a major level of resistance (confluence)
Price has given us a breakout of the channel to the downside and is currently respecting resistance.
I will be selling EUR/GBP to the next support level looking to catch over 120 pips.
Euro can fall to support area and then rebound upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing this chart, we can see how the price, after a period of sideways trading, the price started to grow gradually and formed a consistent bullish structure. The trend was supported by regular bounces from the support line, confirming the bullish sentiment. At some point, price made a temporary drop below the support area, but this move was short-lived; bulls quickly stepped in, and the pair recovered. After that, EURUSD returned back into the channel and began forming higher highs and higher lows again, confirming the continuation of the trend. Right now, the price is declining slightly and approaching the support area again, which is located between 1.1455 and 1.1430. This zone has shown itself as a strong support during previous moves and is now being retested from above. Given the current structure and the upward channel in play, I expect the Euro to rebound from this support area and continue growing toward the 1.1580 points - that’s my current TP 1. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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EURUSD: 4H MA50 may start aggressive rally to 1.17900.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.513, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 36.044), trading inside a Channel Up for the past 5 weeks. Yesterday it made contact with its 4H MA50, which is the most common level of support inside this pattern. Based on that, we find highly probable for the pair to start the new bullish wave. A HH on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension has been a common feature of this Channel Up, hence we are turning bullish here with TP = 1.17900.
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EURO - Price can correct to support area and then continue riseHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago, price declined below support level and then started to grow inside a triangle pattern.
In this pattern, Euro broke $1.1085 level and even rose higher than $1.1425 level, but soon made a correction.
Later price exited from triangle and fell to support level, after which it started to grow inside rising channel.
Inside channel, price rose near support line and later reached $1.1425 level one more time, and some time traded close.
Soon, Euro broke this level and rose to resistance line of channel and then started to move down.
In my opinion, EUR can fall to support area and then continue to grow in channel to $1.1720 resistance line.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 18, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today:
12:00 EET. EUR - Consumer Price Index
15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision
Declining confidence in the US economy amid trade policy is undermining the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR). Data released by the US Census Bureau on Tuesday showed that US retail sales fell 0.9% m/m in May, compared to a 0.1% decline (revised from +0.1%) recorded in April. The figure was weaker than estimates of -0.7%. Meanwhile, US industrial production in May declined 0.2% m/m vs. 0.1% previously (revised from 0%), worse than expectations of 0.1%.
Traders expect the US Federal Reserve to leave borrowing costs unchanged at its June meeting on Wednesday. Markets now estimate a nearly 80% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September and then another in October, according to Reuters.
The mood of European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers is supportive of the common currency. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rate cuts are coming to an end as the central bank is now in a “good position” to deal with the current uncertainty.
Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye on geopolitical risks. Israel is set to step up strikes on Tehran, while the US is considering expanding its role amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.1460, SL 1.1560, TP 1.1260
Goldman and BofA agree: The dollar is losing its edgeGoldman Sachs now expects the EUR/USD to hit 1.20 by the end of the year. While this prediction draws comparisons to the 2017 rally in the pair, Goldman notes a key difference. This time, the pricing reflects pessimism in the US dollar, rather than optimism in the euro.
Bank of America seemingly agrees and warns that even a “hawkish” dot plot at this week’s FOMC meeting, where Fed officials signal fewer rate cuts, may only cause a brief bout of euro weakness against the dollar.
EUR/USD has recently broken out of a long-term descending triangle pattern, which capped price action from mid-April through early June, aligning with Goldman Sachs’ and BofA’s view of a broad EUR strength/ USD weakness.
This recent pullback to the 1.1480 area is a retest of former resistance turned support, suggesting a potential continuation pattern if buyers defend this level.
Euro can turn around and start to fall to support areaHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing this chart, we can see how the price earlier dropped toward the 1.1360 support level and successfully broke it. Then we saw a short recovery move, but the price once again returned to the downside and retested the support line from below. After that, the market created a strong upward impulse, broke back above the 1.1360 level, and entered a phase of consolidation inside a range. This range held for some time, with price respecting both its upper and lower boundaries. Eventually, we saw a breakout from this consolidation, followed by another strong bullish impulse and a steady climb above the 1.1530 zone, where price is currently trading. However, the price has now approached a critical structure and is showing signs of weakening momentum. In my mind, the Euro may attempt one more small move up but then turn around and start declining toward the 1.1530 support level, breaking the ascending support line as well. That's why my TP is this support level, which coincides with the support area. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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EURUSD Last push before correction.The EURUSD pair made a new High by breaking above the 1.15725 Resistance and is extending the rally since the January 13 2025 Low. That Low was the Higher Low of the multi-year Channel Up, so the current uptrend is technically its latest Bullish Leg.
The first Bullish Leg of that pattern peaked after a +15.75% rise. We expect a similar peak for the current rally, thus targeting 1.17750, before a new pull-back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
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EURO - Pirce can make movement up and then drop to $1.1420Hi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
After entering the wedge, Euro began to slow down, creating a tightening structure between support and resistance.
Price corrected toward the support line of the wedge, where it briefly paused and bounced with weak momentum.
The bounce triggered a breakout above local resistance, but buyers failed to hold the price at higher levels.
Soon after, the market reversed from the wedge’s upper boundary and began forming a bearish rejection pattern.
Now price trades just below the recent highs, showing fading demand and early signs of short-term reversal.
I expect Euro to move lower and reach the $1.1420 support level — my current target in this scenario.
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SHOT ON EUR/USDEUR/USD Has given us a nice double top at a major resistance level.
Since then it has broken the neckline of that double bottom, creating a new low, engineering liquidity, sweeping it and now getting ready to tap into supply before it should fall.
The Dxy is also getting ready to rise from a demand level so this should also aid in pushing EU down.
Looking to catch over 200 pips.
$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0.
If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown.
Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time.
It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year.
The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market.
The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending).
Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities.
What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years.
All the best,
Tim
April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
HelenP. I Euro may break suppot level and drop to trend lineHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Observing this chart, we can see how the price strongly declined and reached the trend line, where it found solid support and reversed. From that point, EUR began to grow, forming a clear upward pennant structure. This movement included a break above the local support level at 1.1485, indicating temporary bullish strength. However, despite this breakout, the price failed to secure a strong push through the resistance zone between 1.1485 and 1.1530, instead consolidating just below it. Now the chart shows clear signs of slowing upward momentum. The price remains inside the pennant, but current movement suggests potential weakness near the top boundary. Given the structure and previous reaction points, I expect EURUSD to break below the support level and move toward the trend line again. This would be a natural retest of the lower boundary of the pennant. That’s why I’ve set my target at 1.1365, a level that coincides perfectly with the trend line, offering a realistic area for price to react once more. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
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Euro can reach resistance line of channel and make correctionHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Previously, price was trading inside a downward channel, gradually declining from the resistance line while forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. During that phase, sellers were clearly in control, and every attempt to grow was met with pressure near the channel’s upper boundary. However, that trend shifted once the price broke through the resistance line, confirming the end of the bearish momentum and the start of a new upward structure. After the breakout, EUR entered an upward channel, supported by multiple bullish impulses and consistent reactions near the support line. Price continued to rise, pushing through the support area and current support level around 1.1420. This upward movement showed strong bullish conviction, especially after the clean breakout and consolidation inside the channel body. Now the pair has approached the resistance line of the rising channel, where previous impulses typically slowed down or reversed. Given the channel geometry and past market behavior, I expect Euro to react to this upper boundary and move downward. For this reason, I set my TP at 1.1325, which aligns with the support line of the upward channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
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EURO - Price will exit from pennant and then make correctionHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price reached $1.0950 level and then made a correction movement, after which started to grow in a pennant.
Price made an upward impulse from support line of pennant and broke $1.0950 level, after which made a retest.
Then price continued to move up and reached $1.1300 level, and soon broke it too, and then made a correction movement.
After this, price rose to resistance line of pennant and then started to decline and soon broke $1.1300 level again.
But later it boucned from support line and backed up, and even now it trades very close to resistance line.
In my mind, Euro can rise a little, thereby exiting from pennant and then make a correction to $1.1300 level.
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EUR/USD: Euro Pops Above $1.16 in Four-Year High. What’s Next?The dollar wobbles, Trump talks tariffs, and the euro’s got its dancing shoes on.
The Euro Wakes Up, Stretching Its Legs at $1.16
Look who just rolled out of bed and decided to make a scene.
For the first time in four years, the euro has finally leapt out of its slumber and sprinted to $1.16 — all at the expense of the US dollar, which continues to shed value.
The FX:EURUSD isn’t just crawling higher. It’s flexing, fueled by dollar fatigue, political drama, and some very European stubbornness.
So what’s behind the move? Why is the euro soaring while the European Central Bank is actually cutting rates? And what’s the dollar doing? Let's unpack it all — one central bank, one tweet, and one inflation print at a time.
Trump’s Tariff Ping-Pong: Back On, Back Off
Let’s start with the one thing that never quite leaves the headlines: Trump’s trade policy.
Just when traders were catching their breath after some tariff reprieve on China, the market got pulled back into the mess. “WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT,” Trump posted on Truth Social late on Wednesday, reigniting fears that the trade war is getting heated up again. Especially after a US squad of negotiators touched down in London and walked away with some promising news .
Markets don’t love confusion. Investors especially don’t love a US trade policy that changes faster than the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC during CPI week. This kind of noise erodes confidence in US economic leadership and — more importantly — in the dollar.
The world’s most important currency is starting to feel… less important, less relevant, and less reliable. And while it’s not collapsing, it’s definitely catching fewer friends at the FX party.
On the other side of the pond, the euro isn’t rising because Europe is crushing it (even though it’s doing pretty well against rival currencies, just check the forex heatmap ) — it’s rising because the dollar is slipping off its pedestal. So yes, the euro’s up. But this isn’t a standing ovation for Europe — it’s more of a polite shrug away from America.
US Inflation Creeps Higher — And That Means a Cut?
US inflation picked up to 2.4% in May but still left the door open for a cut by the Federal Reserve.
So what does the market do? It prices in a cut.
Lower rates mean lower yields on Treasuries, which means less incentive for global investors to hold dollars. And when the yield game turns dull, guess what gets more attention? Gold OANDA:XAUUSD — because if your asset doesn’t yield anything, at least let it be shiny.
ECB Cuts Again, and the Euro Still Rises?
Now here’s the riddle. The ECB last week cut its benchmark rate to 2% , hitting a two-year low. By all textbook logic, a rate cut should weaken the local currency.
Here’s why it’s rising instead:
Markets are forward-looking . The rate cut was expected and already priced in. What matters now is whether more cuts are coming (spoiler: not too many). Traders are betting the ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle — and may turn neutral soon.
The Fed looks more dovish . Rate differentials still matter. Even if the ECB is cutting, the Fed is expected to cut more over the next 12 months. That narrows the gap between euro and dollar yields, making the euro more attractive in relative terms.
Eurozone data isn’t great — but it’s not falling apart either. While growth in the eurozone isn’t setting any records, it’s been just OK to support the currency. Inflation is cooling in line with ECB targets, unemployment remains low, and key sectors like manufacturing are showing signs of life.
Put it all together and you get a euro that’s rising despite rate cuts — a phenomenon that would make FX professors tear their hair out, but makes perfect sense when you zoom out.
Technicals: This Isn’t a Flash in the Pan
From a chartist’s perspective, the FX:EURUSD breakout above $1.16 was a big deal. That level had acted as resistance since November 2021. Now cleared, a flurry of algo buys and retail FOMO might fuel the next leg in either direction.
From the bulls’ perspective, momentum is picking up, and the euro looks poised to test $1.17–$1.18 if the dollar stays fragile (that said, keep your eye on any hot news coming out of the economic calendar ). RSI is not yet flashing overbought, and MACD is still screaming “more grounds to cover.”
Question is: How long can the euro dance before the music changes? And we’re asking you — share your thoughts on the euro-dollar pair and let’s see who gets it right!