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EURUSD - Major resistance at 1.0620US CPI NUMBER TODAY - EXPECT EXTREME VOLATILITY EURUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.0620 (stop at 1.0670) The rally was sold and the dip bought resulting in mild net gains yesterday. Buying posted in Asia. The medium term bias remains bearish. Bespoke resistance is located at 1.0620. Bespoke resistance is located at 1.0640. Trading within a Bearish Ascending Wedge. The measured move target is 0.9935. Our profit targets will be 1.0460 and 0.935 Resistance: 1.0620 / 1.0640 / 1.0751 Support: 1.0460 / 1.0210 / 0.9935 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
InvestMate|EUR/USD Triple Top Trap?💶💵💶💵EUR/USD Triple Top Trap? 💶💵This post is a direct continuation of my previous post in which I predicted a fall in price. 💶💵As you can see the price is still struggling around the recent peaks. 💶💵My scenario remains unchanged, I still think we are in for a downward correction. 💶💵Looking at the fact that we have made a triple top and the price clearly does not have the strength to go further up, inferring from the last two candles. 💶💵I believe we are in for a decline from current levels. 💶💵My scenario is also confirmed by the MACD which shows divergence on the histogram. Clearly a lower peak on the price, a higher peak on the histogram bars. This is a downward signal 💶💵The target remains unchanged, it was set in the previous post. 💶💵The resistance zone remains around the recent peaks. 💶💵The scenario I am playing out is a decline to the levels of the support zone set previously. I'm aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook changes I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
17
InvestMate|EUR/USD When These Declines💶💵💶💵EUR/USD When These Declines 💶💵Post is a direct continuation of the post in which I predicted the start of the declines: 💶💵As you can see EUR/USD has been accumulating over the last two weeks. 💶💵My perspective hasn't changed I still think we are in for declines sooner or later. 💶💵First of all considering the situation on the larger intervals. 💶💵Today we attacked the double top which was defended perfectly and from its level we started a downward wave. 💶💵I will still watch how the price will behave at the beginning of next week. 💶💵The scenario I am playing out is to wait for a strong sell reaction and to join the downtrend once confirmed. With the target set in last post. I'm aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook changes I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
14
RLinda ! EURUSD-> Rising trend. Where is the price headed? EURUSD continues to strengthen. The price is in the ascending range. After testing the resistance of the range, a technical pullback to the middle line of the channel is formed On the chart I want to pay attention to the triangle. It is a kind of consolidation, where a break of this or that triangle border will cause a strong impulse. At the same time EURUSD is testing the support at 1.04969 by a false break and confirmation of the limit level, i.e. there is support in the market. I expect a rise from 1.04969 or a breakdown of triangle resistance and reaching 1.05848 in the medium term But, in case of breakdown of 1.04969 and triangle support, the price can reach 1.03642 level rather quickly Regards, R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
12
InvestMate|EUR/USD Next Wave Of Declines💶💵💶💵EUR/USD Next Wave Of Declines. 💶💵Post is a direct continuation of my previous post in which I wrote about the upcoming falls and the possible correction which I think has just ended: 💶💵As I warned we have made an upward correction to the resistance zone where the strong level of 0.618 of the entire downward wave is located. 💶💵💵I believe that the next downward wave is ahead of us which should fall to the support levels set in the previous post. 💶💵The scenario I'm playing out is a continuation of the declines to the support zone. I'm aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook changes I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
8
EURUSD shortI am personally short the EURUSD at the start of the London session. If you are looking for a Bullish scenario then maybe follow Credit Suisse who say Support is seen at 1.0510 initially, with the low from Friday and 13-day exponential average at 1.0428/1.0397 ideally holding on a closing basis to keep the immediate risk higher. A close lower can see a deeper setback to 1.0305/1.0290. The Credit Suisse House View is neutral on EURUSD on a 3-6 month horizon. We stay bullish for key retracement resistance at 1.0612/15. Support is seen at 1.0510, then 1.0428.
Short
by Macrobriefing
EUR/USD Declines but watch out for support zones💶💵💶💵EUR/USD Declines but watch out for support zones 💶💵EUR/USD As I wrote previously: 💶💵In my opinion it is on the declines. 💶💵The direction remains unchanged. 💶💵The only thing I want to draw your attention to are the support zones which can be a short term obstacle against declines. 💶💵The resistance zone was determined by the recent peaks 💶💵I have determined three support zones in turn I will describe on what basis they were determined. The first is based on the fibo 0.382 of the entire downward wave from the 1992 peak to the 2000 bottom. The second is based on the 0.236 of the entire upward wave from the September 2022 bottom to the current peak. The third based on the cluster of two levels. The first is the 0.382 level of the entire upward wave from the September bottom to the current peak. The second level is the 0.786 level of the entire downward wave from the 1980 peak to the 1985 bottom. 💶💵At these resistances I expect a price reaction but the long-term direction remains unchanged. 💶💵The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of declines to the lowest support zone marked on the chart. I'm aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook changes I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 💶💵*Please do not suggest the path I have outlined with lines it is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
13
EUR/USD Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 EUR/USD Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 1.64%, down from 1.85% last week according to EVZ data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 0th percentile, while according to EVZ, we are on 2th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 1.18% movement Bearish: 0.97% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 30% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 1.072 BOT: 1.033 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 70% probability we are going to touch previous high of 1.055(already hit) 30% probability we are going to touch previous low of 1.03 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 26% BULLISH trend Daily timeframe indicates 93% BULLISH trend 4H timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend
by exlux
InvestMate|EUR/USD Attention Bull Trap💶💵💶💵EUR/USD Attention Bull Trap 💶💵Post is a direct follow-up to yesterday's post on EUR/USD 💶💵After a sharp downward reaction we are back around the resistance zone again, which I believe will bounce EUR/USD again towards the target set in the previous post. 💶💵The scenario I'm playing out is a continuation of the declines into the previously set support zone. I am aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook changes I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 💶💵*Please do not suggest the path I have outlined with lines it is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post then I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
8
InvestMate|EUR/USD Increases won't happen because I say so💶💵💶💵EUR/USD Increases won't happen because I say so 💶💵As in the title. 💶💵After Jay Powell's statement yesterday on the gradual tapering of interest rate hikes, and the announcement of another hike of only 50 basis points that I wrote about in the previous post. 💶💵Looking at the euphoria that has emerged in the market over the past few days has driven prices upwards 💶💵 We can try to counter sentiment and continue the direction I wrote about previously 💶💵We are currently at a strong resistance zone. Determined by the fibo level of 0.382 of the entire downward wave from the 1992 peak to the 2000 bottom. 💶💵The nearest significant support zone is at a key location where the market has found support many times in the past. 💶💵It has been determined by a cluster of two fibo levels. The first is the 0.382 level of the entire current upward wave and the second is the 0.786 level of the entire upward wave from the 1985 low to the 1992 peak. 💶💵I do not yet rule out a possible fight at the current levels but sooner or later I expect a downward slide 💶💵The scenario I am playing out is a downward correction to levels around the support zone where I will watch to see how the price reacts. I am aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook would change I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 💶💵*Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
18
EUR/USD:BUY From SUPPORT 1.0400 For A New LONG Setup READAs predicted yesterday the EUR/USD contrary to the bearish impulse supposed from many, the price following the bad economic news release for the USD had a strong bullish impulse reaching again the value 1.0450 and today the value seems ready to grow more after the pullback on 1.0400 area. Today economic news and factors as the Initial Jobless Claims, the Jobless Claims 4-week Average and also the United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI if will present a bad scenario for the USD , the EUR will take advantage with a new Bullish impulse.
Long
by FOREXN1
17
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE At their previous meeting the ECB hiked by another 75bsp, and with HICP >9% it should keep the bank hiking for now. ECB sources notes the bank is planning to discuss QT at their Dec meeting. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or clarity on how the eligibility might impact countries like Italy and Spain. Until the BTP/Bund spread breaches 2.55%, markets will have to wait and see whether TPI can make a difference. The main driver for the EUR is the economic outlook, but there are a few different conflicting drivers. Gas supply from Russia remain closed (EUR negative), but energy reform plans have seen EU gas prices lose ground (EUR positive). The war in Ukraine remains a risk (EUR negative), but recent victories by Ukraine and the recapture of the strategic city of Kherson has been a more positive development (EUR positive). In the week ahead, the main highlight will be Flash HICP data. With money markets pricing in 75bsp for the December meeting, any unexpected misses in HICP could see rates markets lower their expectations for the Dec meeting. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine. Stagflation risks remains, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected data could spark some relief. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, better overall risk sentiment that pressures the USD should be supportive for the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Escalation in Ukraine war that risks NATO involvement. Stagflation risks remains, even with lots of bad news priced any materially worse-than-expected data could see more pressure. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, continued sour risk sentiment that supports the USD should be negative for the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent data pointing to a higher likelihood of a EZ recession. Current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply) outweigh the positives. Recession risks remain high and means incoming data like growth & inflation will be watched closely. For now, the focus for the EUR is on multiple fronts from energy to policy to geopolitics, which means we don’t want to be hasty with looking for new EUR trades and want a very clear reason and catalyst to trade the currency in the short-term. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The Fed is still under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT, but last week’s decent deceleration in the OCT CPI report has given markets some solace from inflation angst. Money markets shed about 30bsp off the implied terminal rate. As a result of this the USD saw intense selling but has largely stabilized this week. Like we’ve said many times, right now is all about the data. The data will lead the Fed, which means the data is what we should follow for high probability short-term directional flows for the USD. In the week ahead, we have a few of important data points such as ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP on Friday. However, also pay close attention to the scheduled speech from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. The speech from Fed Chair Powell will be important. If he delivers the same stern hawkish tone that accompanied the prior FOMC presser, it can provide upside for the USD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. However, it’s also important to remember that the data leads the Fed. That means, even though the USD remains fundamentally bullish in the currency negative cyclical environment, it’s short-term direction will largely be determined by the incoming data. Thus, in the current context, we prefer trading the USD in the short-term with scalps out of key US economic data points.
by thunderpips
7
InvestMate|EUR/USD Clear signal for declines💶💵💶💵EUR/USD Clear signal for declines 💶💵Recently I come to you with the most important forex pair i.e. EUR/USD 💶💵You can see that what I wrote in previous posts about possible declines today came true. 💶💵We started with the price going up around the recent peaks then we scored a solid slide below the opening. 💶💵Looking at the shape of the candle, it is not difficult to agree that it isn't the best harbinger of future increases, quite the opposite. 💶💵After an in-depth analysis and the determination of new support and resistance zones on the basis of fibo measures that I guided based on the biggest waves since the beginning of the quotation of this pair. 💶💵I would like to start with the resistance zone, which was determined based on the fibo level of 0.382 of the entire downward wave from 1992 to the 2000 bottom. It is also worth taking into account that these are the places of the peaks of the current impulse. 💶💵Support zones have also been redrawn. 💶💵The first based on the fibo level of 0.786 of the entire downward wave from the 1980 peak to the 1985 low. 💶💵The second lower support zone has been redrawn based on the 0.236 level of the upward wave from 1972 to the 1980 peak. It can also be seen that the level has been repeatedly respected from both sides. 💶💵This second resistance zone I currently see as more likely due to the fact that we were still in a downtrend for almost 2 years now and I don't think the desire to reverse the trend will be let go so easily without major corrections along the way. 💶💵The scenario I am playing out is a continuation of the downtrend started today to reach the lower support zone where there is also parity. I am aware of the possibility of a correction at any time, this should be taken into account, If the outlook would change I will publish a post with an update, so I encourage you to actively follow the profile and read the description carefully. 💶💵 *Please do not suggest the path I have drawn with the lines this is only a hypothetical scenario. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
13
EUR USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE At their previous meeting the ECB hiked by another 75bsp, and with HICP >9% it should keep the bank hiking for now. ECB sources notes the bank is planning to discuss QT at their Dec meeting. On spread fragmentation, the bank didn’t provide any new info or clarity on how the eligibility might impact countries like Italy and Spain. Until the BTP/Bund spread breaches 2.55%, markets will have to wait and see whether TPI can make a difference. The main driver for the EUR is the economic outlook, but there are a few different conflicting drivers. Gas supply from Russia remain closed (EUR negative), but energy reform plans have seen EU gas prices lose ground (EUR positive). The war in Ukraine remains a risk (EUR negative), but recent victories by Ukraine and the recapture of the strategic city of Kherson has been a more positive development (EUR positive). In the week ahead, the main highlight will be Flash HICP data. With money markets pricing in 75bsp for the December meeting, any unexpected misses in HICP could see rates markets lower their expectations for the Dec meeting. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine. Stagflation risks remains, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected data could spark some relief. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, better overall risk sentiment that pressures the USD should be supportive for the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Escalation in Ukraine war that risks NATO involvement. Stagflation risks remains, even with lots of bad news priced any materially worse-than-expected data could see more pressure. Given the EUR’s DXY weighting, continued sour risk sentiment that supports the USD should be negative for the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent data pointing to a higher likelihood of a EZ recession. Current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply) outweigh the positives. Recession risks remain high and means incoming data like growth & inflation will be watched closely. For now, the focus for the EUR is on multiple fronts from energy to policy to geopolitics, which means we don’t want to be hasty with looking for new EUR trades and want a very clear reason and catalyst to trade the currency in the short-term. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The Fed is still under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT, but last week’s decent deceleration in the OCT CPI report has given markets some solace from inflation angst. Money markets shed about 30bsp off the implied terminal rate. As a result of this the USD saw intense selling but has largely stabilized this week. Like we’ve said many times, right now is all about the data. The data will lead the Fed, which means the data is what we should follow for high probability short-term directional flows for the USD. In the week ahead, we have a few of important data points such as ISM Manufacturing PMI and NFP on Friday. However, also pay close attention to the scheduled speech from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. The speech from Fed Chair Powell will be important. If he delivers the same stern hawkish tone that accompanied the prior FOMC presser, it can provide upside for the USD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. However, it’s also important to remember that the data leads the Fed. That means, even though the USD remains fundamentally bullish in the currency negative cyclical environment, it’s short-term direction will largely be determined by the incoming data. Thus, in the current context, we prefer trading the USD in the short-term with scalps out of key US economic data points.
by thunderpips
3
EURUSD bullsGerman PMI figures outperformed expectations, reaching 46.7, strengthening MoM by a value of 1.6 indexed. Whilst this is still firmly in contractionary territory for the German economy and the number of new orders remains heavily depressed, It was still a kernel of good news for Germany and the wider Eurozone. By the same token, Eurozone manufacturing PMI figures also exceeded expectations and suggested that the worst of the energy supply shock had subsided, the worst energy costs being seen in August and showing a slight decline as European nations reacted. This optimism was undoubtedly partly responsible for EUR/USD’s strong rally yesterday, EUR gaining 1% against the greenback in a days trading. ©Caxton EURUSD is trending higher on the H1, so find a fundamental narrative that fits the price action :)
Long
by Macrobriefing