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Euro-dollar

EURUSD Channelling Lower Towards 1.17Trend Analysis The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hour chart. The Forex Cross EURUSD is in a rather choppy downward trend channel, making lower highs and lower lows, after hitting resistance around the 1.195 price level. At the time of publishing, EURUSD is trading at the middle of the channel. Technical Indicators EURUSD is currently below its short (25-SMA), medium (75-SMA) and fractal moving averages, an indication that it is in a bearish trend. Also the KST recently had a negative crossover, further confirmation of the bearish move. The RSI is trading below 50. Recommendation The recommendation will be to go short at market. EURUSD is expected to decline towards 1.17, 0.56% away from current levels. Stop loss on this position is set around the 1.184 level, above the resistance trend line of the downward trend channel. Disclaimer The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes. At the time publishing, I have a position in EURUSD.
Short
by Ceddy86
Euro Bullish modBecause i have nothing to do. but when i play Cryptos i have the choice to Play in USD or Euros. My choice for now is Euro. - Euro broke a 12 years downtrend (2008 to 2020) - Dollars printing machine is burning with Covid as results : - More Dollars than Euros printed = Euro Stronger. - Forex Trend can change with FA ( politicals blablabla / Economic War / etc ). - Could be more slow cuz i have habits with Cryptos. - Simple as that. ------------------------------------------- Trading Parts : ------------------------------------------- Buy Zone : 1.15$ ish TP : 1.35$ ish ------------------------------------------- Happy Trading !
Long
by thecryer
2
EURUSD At Strong Support Level For Long trade.EURUSD is Trading at very strong support level ,which is multi-month support level. Support level is also consider as neck line of head and shoulder pattern ,forming on one day time frame. since couple of days EURUSD is trading in falling wedge pattern (as shown in chart). According to chart pattern and support level , we might see upside in EURUSD . One can trade EURUSD for long with stop loss and risk management system. Thank You Vivek Samale.
Long
by Fx_Trader_ViSa
1
EURUSD, MASSIVE Head-Shoulder-Formation, Determining Zones!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about EURUSD, we are looking at the daily timeframe perspectives. In my recent analysis, I discovered serious signs EURUSD is forming that will be important in the near future, especially the formation EURUSD is developing here will be a main factor in the upcoming times. As when looking at my chart now we can watch there how EURUSD has developed this massive paramount head-and-shoulder-formation with the left shoulder and the head already completed. Now EURUSD is moving on to form the right shoulder in the structure and has meaningful resistances within the 35-EMA in red and the 15-EMA in black from where a pullback is highly likely when EURUSD moves into it. This is why the formation has a high possibility to complete in the near future especially when EURUSD pulls back from the EMAs, when this happens and EURUSD closes below the neckline it will complete the whole formation bearishly to the downside and activate downside targets within the 1.128 level marked in my chart in blue. For now, we should not keep this bearish perspective out of sight and it is necessary and the best option to rightly prepare on it to do not get overwhelmed by bearish volatility when it finally increases. In this manner, thank you for watching my analysis about EURUSD and the massive head-and-shoulder-formation forming likely to complete in the near future, great when you support it with a like and follow or comment, all the best! "The high destiny of the market is to explicate, rather than to speculate." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
by VincePrince
9
Time to revise the dollar forecasts - INGHaving been bearish on the dollar since April 2020, this month we feel compelled to outline a more positive medium-term scenario. At the heart of this is the likelihood that the Fed’s exit sequence from ultra-loose monetary policy is more compressed than they would have us believe. ING now sees the first hike in 3Q22. The earlier-than-expected Fed tightening cycle suggests our prior end-2021 EUR/USD forecast of 1.28 was just too high. Yet November and December are seasonally weak months for the dollar and assuming that the Eurozone recovery goes to plan, EUR/USD should still rally to the 1.23 area. 2Q22 is when the dollar should be rallying more broadly – coinciding with some decisive bearish flattening in the US yield curve. 1.17-1.23 may well be the rough trading range for EUR/USD for the next six months – after all Fed tapering does not necessarily mean lift-off in the dollar. This consolidative environment can allow local stories to play out. Despite the recent (exaggerated in our minds) correction, commodity currencies should still do well. Norway may hike twice this year, and Canada and New Zealand may not be far behind. We could see all of these retesting their cycle highs against the dollar later this year. Time to revise the EUR/USD forecast *This month we are revising our EUR/USD profile to adjust for a Fed seemingly ready to hike rates in late 2022. That is much earlier than the 2024 initially envisaged under its new inflation targeting framework. That window for our forecast EUR/USD move as high as 1.28 looks to be closed on a more hawkish Fed. *Yet the big, broad turn higher in the dollar should really start in 2Q22 – six months before the Fed starts tightening. Before then, EUR/USD should be able to trace out a 1.17-1.23 range. *We still think 1.23 is possible because of strong growth momentum into 2H21 and an ECB that may too have to reconsider its ultra-dovish settings when it meets in September.
by thunderpips
1
EUR/USD Broke the Ascending Channel - Now what?Good morning, traders! Today we want to share our analysis in EUR/USD since we consider it an interesting situation that may help you decide or complement your vision in this pair. 🔸In the Daily Chart (published), we see that the price has been in an uptrend for more than a year (the trend has not been broken yet), and we can also draw an Ascending Channel. Although the trend remains active until a previous low is broken, the channel penetrated the downside. 🔸This breakout is a bearish sign, at least in the short term. 🔸Possibly during the next days or weeks, we will see a movement towards the support zones. 🔸These zones are key since they will determine if the price continues in an uptrend or not. Well, with that said, we are going to decrease the timeframe and detail what we are looking for to look for a bearish opportunity: 8H CHART: 🔸In this chart, we can see more clearly the price structure and levels. 🔸We will look for a correction or consolidation in the current price zone and a corrective pattern to form. If this happens, we will look for a bearish breakout from it and the next momentum. 🔸The support zones are not very far away, so it should not be a move that lasts too long.
Short
by ThinkingAntsOk
4
7th July 2021: FX Wrap - EURTrading action in the single currency was mostly focused around the 1.18 handle, with technicians positing that a failure to hold this level will eventually open the door to 1.17. SocGen’s strategists note that EUR/USD has recoupled with rate differentials in recent months; one implication is that the 2y2y rate differential suggests that the currency is more likely to trade in a directionless range for a while, saying that it was not hard to imagine the gap between Funds and the ECB Deposit rate widening to over 2% as monetary policy normalises, the last time that happened, it helped trigger the EUR/USD fall from 1.27 in 2018-2019.
by thunderpips
3
We consider re-entering EURUSD longs -NomuraWe were surprised by the USD strength over the past week, despite the softer-thanexpected US May core PCE release. We believe this has mainly been driven by EUR weakness, reflecting market anxiety over the pace of US Fed policy normalization versus that of the ECB, FX positioning and the marginal widening of US-EU spreads. Key nearterm risk events, beyond the US June payrolls report (asymmetric risk skewed towards a stronger USD, as softer release would likely be viewed as temporary), include the ECB’s strategic review meeting (6-7 July). Following the review, an announcement (largely expected) of a possible 2% inflation target, versus the current target of “below, but close to 2%”, is possible. Potential dovish surprises include the ECB shifting to an average inflation targeting framework, which would further raise policy divergence concerns between the ECB and Fed. We note that Fed speakers over the past week have broadly highlighted tapering talks; some state 2021 as a possibility, some highlighted a rate hike in 2022, inflation has been higher than expected (most still think transitory), and they believe labour market strength will likely resume around September. As for key US focus points after the June payrolls release (due today), the next Fed policy focus points will be on the speech by Raphael Bostic (8 July, SGT) who previously stated that there could be a rate hike in 2022. The release of the 16 June FOMC minutes (8 July, 2am SGT) will also be watched for clues around tapering (timing and form). Overall, the Fed policy tightening theme continues to dominate and, without notable downside surprises in key US data ahead, there looks to be some risk that USD may continue to strengthen (we expect higher USD/JPY with risk conditions still holding stable; lower EUR/USD in the short term). At this juncture, the market is still slightly short USD, while there does not appear to be any significant overpricing of Fed tightening/inflation risks as reflected in Eurodollar futures, inflation breakevens, and zero coupon inflation swaps. STRATEGY: EUR/USD has moved lower than nominal or real rates spreads would imply, suggesting USD strength has slightly overshot in the short term; however, sentiment is definitely USD bullish, which is hard to ignore. Friday’s payrolls number is a material risk to the short-term price, but we are still of the view that FX cannot ignore the substantial acceleration of European equity inflows for very long. Still, markets are giving a signal that a global growth slowdown is in the pipeline (lower copper prices, lower US equity cyclicals versus defensives) and, along with the likelihood of Fed hikes next year, the USD appears to be in vogue. The mixed messaging from flows and mobility data versus price action has prompted us to take stock of what’s going on and is why we’ve turned neutral EUR/USD for the past week and short EUR/GBP. We have 1.18 in mind as the next level where long EUR/USD positions are attractive once again with 1.17 acting as a strong support via the end-March low. However, as NFP approached, we remain neutral on EUR/USD, as we await better levels to consider longs.
by thunderpips
1
EUR: Time for some better hard data in EuropeFundamental bias: Mildly Bearish *EUR/USD remains fragile and the better-than-expected NFP headline number will keep open the possibility of a drop to 1.1700. Expect the FOMC minutes on Wednesday to have a big say in how low EUR/USD goes this coming week. *For the week ahead, the European data calendar is very light, with focus on more investor confidence surveys (Sentix Monday, ZEW Tuesday) and on Wednesday the release of the European Commission’s summer forecast round. These presumably should see growth upgrades. Germany will on Wednesday see May industrial production – expected to rebound in line with the better sentiment indicators. Some improvement in the hard data could provide the euro with a little support.
by thunderpips
8
EUR-USD Bearish Bias! Sell! Hello,Traders! EUR-USD is now trading in a downtrend And we can see that a falling opening wedge has formed And even though the support to the left is not yet broken I've got a massive bearish bias And I think that we will see bearish continuation on EUR-USD Within this wedge and the target might be way lower that the one on the chart Because the nearest support is so far away NOTE: IF the wedge is broken to the upside, the setup is invalid! Buy! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! See other ideas below too!
Short
by TopTradingSignals
13
EURUSD - 2021-2022 FX Forecasts from investment Bank BarclaysMeasured Dollar (USD) Gains as Markets Monitor Global Rebound Barclays expects that the global economic recovery will strengthen over the next year with supportive fiscal and monetary policies. There will, however, be potential disruption if inflation is not transitory. Overall, the bank also expects that the dollar will not be weakened by stronger global growth as the Federal Reserve will shift towards a more restrictive policy. Barclays expects the dollar to be held in relatively tight ranges as markets wait for further evidence on how long supply-side issues continue to distort activity. “More sustained inflation would raise market expectations for Fed action to address it, especially if inflation expectations appear to be becoming entrenched.” A more aggressive Fed stance would underpin the dollar, although Barclays notes that the US currency is still overvalued at current levels, limiting the scope for further gains. Barclays expects the Euro-zone economy to recover strongly, but this represents a catch-up rather than genuine out-performance. The bank also expects that the ECB will keep more hawkish voices within a minority; “We expect the core of the Council to hold firm and keep policy ultra-loose for the foreseeable future.” This expansive monetary policy will continue to limit the scope for Euro appreciation.
by thunderpips
EUR: ECB remains one of the last doves standingFundamental bias: Mildly bearish EUR/USD continues to retrace the FOMC induced sell-off, but no-one expects the EUR to lead this recovery. The ECB has made it clear it does not want to be dragged into premature tightening and we should hear that message in the week ahead from a whole host of ECB speakers, especially from Christine Lagarde. The data focus will be on the first look at the June inflation data – but consensus expects headline and core to remain subdued around the 1.9% YoY and 0.9% YoY respectively – hardly a trigger for an ECB change of heart. We’ll also see June PMIs across the whole region. These should echo the surprisingly resilient flash estimates we have seen so far – suggesting supply chain disruption might not be as bad as feared. Also look for French regional elections this weekend. Last week’s vote had little impact on markets, where a low turnout saw support for both Macron and LePen marginally decline. Recall France sees Presidential elections in April 2022.
by thunderpips