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EURO-USD

Tidying Up...Flows into USD continue with yields unlocking potential for flattening. The latest breakdown in euro is calling for a reassessment across all charts, did not expect the pullback to come this far, so we will go through the process over the coming sessions. An interesting environment, we are in the middle of summer with thin liquidity and technical discipline needed. ↳ Eyeballing 1.162x for strong support, Nov-20 lows should be enough to lean on. ↳ Looking at the macro charts below, the price action is supportive and we should see 1.161/1.162 comfortable hold a breach below the 1.15 barrier will imply the LT base is not yet complete and unlock a test of parity (not expected). ↳ Inflation can provide the momentum above 1.185x (30th July highs) and indicate we are already on track for the 1.21 and 1.25 initial targets in this next wave.
Editors' picks
Long
by ridethepig
38
Buying opportunity with EURUSDH1 time frame. Structure: Uptrend. The price after retesting the support level of 1.16200 has moved to surpass the Key level of the retracement trend on the smaller time frame at 1.16500. At the 1-hour frame, wait for one more confirmation when the price retests the level of 1.16500 again, you can find buying opportunities. Profit target is the zone 1.17700. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wish you all have a good trading day!
Long
by tradafx
EUR/USDAlthough we've been on a bearish trend since March, there has been a few moments where price has tested its previous "lower" high. As you can see by my triangles, price seems as if it is ready to retrace the previous high. On the 2 hour timeframe, I saw a strong bullish candle cross the 200 day ema with the current candle opening above the previous one. Last time there was a retracement was more than likely back in August on the 4 hour time frame where price retraced about 38% of its previous high (May 2021). Let's see if price can retrace our previous high up to at least 38% or more before the bearish trends continues. You would think the usd is stronger but it seems like since 2008's crash, the dollar has progressively been getting weaker. With our current economic situation having slow growth, I plan on riding this retracement up until the chart tells me different.
Long
by Redimere_91
Concept Catalog:🖼️:EURUSD Multi Spectrum🎨 T/A ☄️In Alignment with a Chart based Bullish on 'Quality Risk' stance for foreseeable: A multi perspective case: The Rising Euro to USD from time of this posting, to upside target: ~1.40 🐂🏄‍♀️🧙🏻‍♀️ Please See Detailed Charts Below - FX_IDC:EURUSD FX:EURUSD OANDA:EURUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD CAPITALCOM:EURUSD SAXO:EURUSD GLOBALPRIME:EURUSD KRAKEN:EURUSD CURRENCYCOM:EURUSD EASYMARKETS:EURUSD WHSELFINVEST:EURUSD AMEX:FXE
Long
by d-MR96nBa
6
EUR/USD/TECHNICAL ANALYSIS LONG+SHORT TMF|SHORT SETUP 🔔 EUR/USD will fall to 1.13 by the end of 2022 - Danske Bank. Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Check the Links on BIO and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our Idea by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Short
by FOREXN1
3
EURUSD: Technical Analysis & Very Bearish Outlook 🇪🇺🇺🇸 Hey traders, EURUSD is trading within a wide horizontal trading range on a daily. 1.166 is its support 1/191 is its resistance Reaching the upper boundary of the range, the market started to fall sharply. I will expect a further decline to the lower boundary of the range. Being quite oversold, the price may pull back before the goal will be reached. Good luck! ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
26
EUR/USD:UPDATE SHORT POSITION|BEARISH SHARK PATTERN HIT ⚡️As described in the previous ideas Relative to this pair, the euro having long been in a bearish trend, in recent sessions it has had a realazist rally that found a resistance structure at 1.1900 as a wall made the price rebound, a SHARK model was a further clue to our analysis as the stochastic in clear divergence and overbought. Purchase volumes are now declining and we expect our target price levels to be touched.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD: WAITING THE NON-FARM-PAYROLLS |SHORT SCENARIO ⚡⚡Forecast 03 September 2021 The U.S. Federal Reserve has repeatedly made it clear that the main criterion for winding down support measures would be a stronger labor market. Most interestingly, after disappointing data in July, where unemployment rose to 5.9%, we saw a strong strengthening in August, with unemployment falling to 5.4%. Many analyst agencies have noted that the growth in the labor market has been hampered by those very "American" payouts. In other words, many companies noted labor shortages. Accordingly, the pay cuts that began in late June have not yet had time to affect the June data, but we have seen an excellent strengthening of the labor market in July. The number of jobless claims continues to decline. Both total and initial jobless claims are down. Perhaps not at the pace we would like, but it is continuing. Looking at the labor market, the Fed's goal of 4% unemployment could be reached very soon. Non-Farm Payrolls Employment : - Last data: 943K - Consensus Forecast: 750K The Non-Farm employment change measures the change in the number of people employed during the last month in the non-farm sector. Total Non-Farm Payrolls represent about 80% of the workers who produce all of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States. It is the most important piece of data contained in the employment report that offers the best overview of the economy. Monthly changes and adjustments in the data can be very volatile. U.S. Average Hourly Earnings YoY : - Last data: 0.4% - Consensus forecast: 0.3% This indicator shows the change in the average hourly wage level for major industries, except agriculture. Unemployment Rate : - Past data: 5.4% - Consensus forecast: 5.2% The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively looking for a job and willing to work in the United States. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is positive for the U.S. labor market and should be taken as a positive factor for the USD.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
EUR/USD:FUNDAMENTAL + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS|DOWNTREND|SHORT VIEW 🔔Jerome Powell said nothing that could inspire EURUSD bulls, but the pair's quotes grew all the same. Might the reason be a forecast for European inflation? Let’s discuss that and make a trading plan. Like the gold price depends on what the Fed thinks about inflation and not inflation itself, the dollar rate depends on how the market interprets Powell's statements and not his statements. The Fed president didn't voice concern about Delta, saying the US economy had every chance to return to full employment despite the short-term risk. He made a hawkish statement that a QE taper would most likely start in 2021. However, Treasury yields slumped, stock indexes grew, and EURUSD quotes rocketed to 1.18. Powell had found the right words to convince investors that monetary stimuli would be withdrawn slowly, so his address at Jackson Hole was taken as market-friendly. The Fed chair underscored that inflation was temporary and there was no connection between QE withdrawal and the beginning of a federal funds rate hike as the central bank had set quite a different criterion for increasing borrowing costs. That's good news for high-risk assets, but why the euro is growing isn't quite obvious. The Fed's intention to normalize monetary policy and the ECB's passivity raised the discount on the overnight rate to borrow the euro instead of dollars earlier in August to the highest since 2020. To finance a carry trade, the euro rate is -0.48%, and the dollar rate is +0.09%. In 2021, carry trades funded by the euro produced returns for 17 out of 23 emerging currencies. Using the USD delivered losses for 15 of them. The euro and the yen are currently the main funding currencies, and the global risk appetite's boost is supposed to weaken them. At the same time, treasury yields are falling, which doesn't let the dollar spread wings. However, EURUSD bears will be able to claw back losses if US labor stats exceed expectations. Bloomberg experts forecast that non-farm payrolls will grow by as little as 750 thousand in August. That's more than in most months of the year but less than in June and July when the increase was +1 million. Moderate US employment forecasts and expectations of the eurozone's consumer prices boost to 2.8%, their highest since 2012, support EURUSD bulls as much as Jerome Powell's address at Jackson Hole. The "buy the euro on rumors and sell it on facts" principle might be realized once European inflation data are out. Weak data on Chinese business activity and strong US employment stats can pressure the main currency pair. On the whole, the EURUSD's failure to hold above 1.18 will point to the buyer's weakness and become a reason for sales. Technically we can see that the price is within a bearish channel with the value lingering within the fibonacci retracement, between the 50% and 61.8% level, could use these two percentages as resistance and turn to the downside. Ichimoke's clouds remain Bearish and the stochastic indicator is located in Overbought with Top Divergence. The price on the H4 chart is below the average 200 simple average. Can bears maintain control over price action and force the EUR/USD into its horizontal support area?
Short
by FOREXN1
7
DXY | London Open | Fundamental Analysis On Friday, the S&P 500 index rebounded as investors took advantage of Wall Street's recent labeling opportunities. For this week's Jackson Hole Symposium, equity traders will be looking at signals regarding the Fed's next move. The Minutes of the last FOMC meeting showed that the majority of Fed members are in favor of lowering the asset purchasing program to $120 billion per month before the end of the year. This likelihood may be reinforced by the talk given by Fed President Jerome Powell on Friday, even if recent economic statistics indicated a sluggish rebound. In this context, a 12-month "Wedge" pattern ran above the DXY US Dollar Index. This demonstrates that the market prices for the potential to taper stimuli and perhaps rise to medium-term rates. Increased US dollar pricing and developing market assets may weigh.
TVC:DXYShort
by TayFx
2
Euro-Dollar Heading into the FED Summit |Fundamental Analysis|As speculators predict a faster-than-expected timeline for the Federal Reserve's withdrawal of stimulus, the US Dollar has hit fresh all-time highs. Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will give a lecture titled "The Economic Outlook" at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, August 27, at 10 a.m. EDT/14 GMT. At the Jackson Hole Conference Center, a reception will be held in honor of the occasion. With respect to the US Dollar, there is a mixed bias in the market. While the US Dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) has climbed to fresh all-time highs, speculators are beginning to predict that the Federal Reserve will remove stimulus at a quicker rate than previously anticipated. Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will give a lecture titled "The Economic Outlook" at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday, August 27, at 10 a.m. EDT/14 GMT. At the Jackson Hole Conference Center, a reception will be held in honor of the occasion. According to the IG Client Sentiment Index, there is a mixed tilt in the direction of the US Dollar as we enter the last week of August. As of the beginning of the year, traders have begun to forecast that the Federal Reserve would begin to withdraw its stimulus package sooner than previously expected. With a 1.01 percent rise last week, the US Dollar (as measured by the DXY Index) rose to fresh yearly highs. For the first time since October 2020, the EUR/USD rate, which is the most significant component of the DXY Index, dropped by -0.81 percent and finished below 1.1700. Stock market declines weighed on the USD/JPY exchange rate, which only increased by 0.16 percent. Although the US Dollar gained ground across the board as escalating delta variant concerns eroded confidence in global growth-sensitive currencies, the pound fell -1.76 percent, the Australian dollar fell -3.13 percent, the New Zealand dollar fell -2.94 percent, and the Canadian dollar rose +2.47 percent, all against the backdrop of rising delta variant fears. There will be a rush of action in the area of event risk, most of which will originate in the United States, towards the conclusion of August. There are five 'high' rated events scheduled for the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, which will take place over the course of a week and have the potential to produce significant event risk-based volatility. There are many economic reports planned to be published on Monday, August 23. The Chicago Fed's July national activity index, the August Market manufacturing PMI (flash), and the July existing home sales data in the United States are all expected to be released. Tuesday, August 24, will see the release of new home sales figures for the month of July in the United States. According to the timetable, the data on durable goods orders in the United States will be published on Wednesday, August 25. Thursday, August 26 will mark the beginning of the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. This week's economic statistics will include the second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report as well as the weekly jobless claims data. On Friday, August 27, two reports will be released: the July US PCE report (the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation) and an update on the August US Michigan consumer confidence index (both of which will be released on Friday, August 27). President Powell will deliver his Jackson Hole speech, which is provisionally titled "The Economic Outlook," at 10 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time/14 a.m. GMT on Monday, March 25th, 2019. As a result of the information that has been received so far about 3Q'21, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow growth estimate has been lowered downward from a previous estimate of +6.2 percent to a revised estimate of +6.1 percent annualized growth. A new data set has caused the Federal Reserve to downgrade its forecast for real housing investment growth in the third quarter to 3.0 percent from 3.4 percent. It is planned for publication on Wednesday, August 25, 2011, the latest adjustment to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for the third quarter of 2011. Looking at the odds of a Fed rate hike with the yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond, we can observe whether the bond market is responding in a similar manner to how it behaved in 2013/2014 when the Fed began implementing its tapering plans. In accordance with historical data, the butterfly monitors variations in the yield curve that are not parallel in the United States. Based on historical trends, intermediate rates should rise more rapidly than short- or long-term rates, provided that the trend continues. However, even if the July FOMC minutes, which clearly differentiated between rate increases and tapering, had no effect on the likelihood of a rate hike, we can see that the US yield curve is shifting in a way that indicates that a more hawkish Fed is on the horizon, as illustrated in the chart below. The 2s5s10s butterfly has climbed to its highest rate since the Federal Reserve began talking about tapering off its bond purchases in June, despite the fact that there remain 87 basis points (bps) of rate hikes discounted until the end of 2023. The combined effect of rising US Treasury yields – particularly when intermediate rates exceed both short- and long-term rates – combined with increased chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the past has resulted in a more positive trading environment for the US Dollar, according to historical evidence. When it comes to trading posture, the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the week ending August 3 indicates that traders increased their net-long US Dollar holdings to 19,206 contracts from 18,880 contracts over the course of the week, according to the report. Based on information provided by Bloomberg, the net long position in the US Dollar has stayed around its highest level since the second week of March 2020. (the apex of coronavirus pandemic concerns in financial markets). according to the IG Client Sentiment Index, as we enter the last week of the month of August
Short
by TayFx